Impact of COVID-19 on Buckinghamshire Economy: Evidence Pack July 2021
This evidence pack highlights the impact of COVID-19 on the Buckinghamshire economy, covering business conditions, sectors, labor market, infrastructure, and behavior. The timeline shows the effects of lockdowns, gradual reopening, and economic recovery in 2020 and 2021. Business support schemes, furlough rates, and key events are discussed, reflecting the challenges and progress in the region.
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Impact of COVID-19 on the Buckinghamshire Economy Evidence Pack 19 July 2021
This slide deck presents evidence of the impact of COVID-19 on the Buckinghamshire economy. Please feel free to re-use the contents. All data relates to the Buckinghamshire Council area, unless otherwise stated. If you have any queries, suggestions or requests, please contact: Caroline Perkins Research Manager Caroline.Perkins@buckslep.co.uk @caroline_BLEP
Sections 1. Business conditions 2. Sectors 3. Labour market 4. Infrastructure and property 5. Behaviour
2020 - Economic Timeline Lockdown 2 4-week lockdown announced. More businesses able to stay open than in lockdown 1. Recovery continues Recruitment picks up, schools, colleges and universities return, business planning cycles resume Optimism rises Covid-secure measures, staycations and Eat Out to Help Out boost consumer and business confidence Lockdown 1 Sections of the economy close, schools close, work from home if you can mandate. Many businesses in distress Gradual re-opening Construction & manufacturing re-open, followed by retail then hospitality Vaccine announcement November July & August September & October Mid-March to mid-May Mid-May to July Business support schemes being wound down (SEISS, furloughing) and cliff edge dates softened Business loans, grants, furloughing and relief schemes come into effect and evolve over time. Big jump in out-of- work benefit claimants Business support schemes being wound down. Claimants remain high and 11% of employees still furloughed at end of August Business support schemes re-instated Claimants remain high, numbers furloughed begins to slowly drop
2021 - Economic Timeline Return to normal Gradual relaxation of restrictions Lockdown 3 Recovery continues Schools, colleges and universities return, Exceptions likely to be aviation and inbound tourism sectors More businesses open than in lockdown 1. Gradual reopening of non-essential retail, hospitality, hair and beauty, sports, recreation and events industries School closures (to 8 March) / travel restrictions All adults vaccinated Third Covid-19 wave Vaccine rollout September & October Summer 2021 8 March June 21 January to March Furlough scheme ends Companies start repaying bounce- back loans Additional business support schemes, announced Claimant count stable but high, furlough rate - 15% of employees
Headline figures from the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (UK) The percentage of businesses currently trading has increased steadily from 71% in January 2021 to 89% in early July 2021, the highest percentage of businesses currently trading since comparable estimates began in June 2020. The percentage of businesses experiencing a decrease in turnover has steadily declined from 65% when comparable estimates began in June 2020, to 30% in early to late June 2021 - the joint lowest percentage recorded. The proportion of businesses' workforce that are reported to be on full or partial furlough leave (the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS)) has fallen from around 20% in late January 2021 to 5% in late June 2021.
New company incorporations and closures (in liquidation or dissolved) A similar number of businesses became incorporated in Buckinghamshire in 2020 as in 2019. As is the case nationally, fewer local companies were recorded as being in liquidation or having dissolved in 2020 than in 2019. Insolvency figures are likely to be artificially low due to: Government financial support packages keeping businesses solvent Creditors / landlords being unable to take normal actions Businesses registering for VAT/PAYE and businesses dissolving or liquidating - Buckinghamshire 2,000 New registrations 1,800 Disolutions / liquidations 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 Therefore, there are likely to be pent up insolvencies in the system and the number of zombie firms in the economy is likely to have increased. I.e., firms that are primarily servicing a large debt burden and are not making a material contribution to the economy For more details see: On firm ground? Resolution Foundation, February 2021 400 200 0 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Source: Companies House
Government-backed loans to 31 March 2021 - Buckinghamshire 16,000 Bucks businesses secured government-backed loans Value of loans = 799m 14,800 BBLs 1,200 CBILs Take up of loans is lower than the national average (businesses securing loans as a proportion of registered businesses is 51% in Bucks v 61% nationally) The average value of loans secured by Buckinghamshire firms is 49,900, higher than the national average of 44,650. Source: British Business Bank, July 2021
Within Buckinghamshire, the greatest number of loans were taken up in the south of the county (left hand map). Overall, Buckinghamshire LEP area as one of the lowest take-up rate of loans (right hand map). Follow the links for interactive versions of the maps.
SME Debt Buckinghamshire Source: CoPERI
Impact on sectors - summary The sectors that have been most severely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic locally are: Aviation Live events Hospitality Travel & transport (including inbound tourism) Leisure & entertainment (including visitor attractions) Personal services (including hair and beauty) Arts & culture (including theatres) Suppliers to the above Suppliers to the education sector
The aviation sector The UK s aviation industry has been particularly hardest hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. Reduced aviation activity has had significant knock-on impact for supply chain firms. Passenger numbers at Heathrow Airport in 2020 were 73% lower than in 2019. The drastic reduction in activity at the airport has led to significant levels of furloughing and redundancies. National data on furloughing shows high concentrations around airports. Both Heathrow and Luton airports provide employment for Buckinghamshire residents, and many Buckinghamshire firms operate within their supply chains. An estimated 2,100 Buckinghamshire residents work on-site at Heathrow airport with many more working in supply chain firms. Pilots have been highlighted as haemorrhaging money , as they still need to pay for training and license fees According to the IATA, recovery in the aviation sector could lag two years behind wider economy.
The hospitality & tourism sector Approximately 18,000 people work in Buckinghamshire s 2,000 hospitality and tourism businesses. 1 in 12 jobs in the county are within this sector. The sector has been one of the hardest hit by the pandemic. Trading restrictions during 2020/21 significantly impacted turnover. Businesses within the sector have needed to respond to ever-changing rules and absorb associated costs. Nationally, the sector has seen the greatest decline in economic output of all sectors. There has been high take-up of financial support schemes (including furlough) by businesses within this sector. Ongoing fixed costs and accumulating debt alongside persistent lower revenues and low cash reserves are a major concern for the sector. Inbound tourism businesses have been particularly badly impacted, with zero income since March 2020. This sub-sector has slipped through the gaps in terms of support. Capacity has been reduced in order to comply with social distancing rules. Firms are currently (July 2021) experiencing difficulties with staff having to self-isolate. Some firms report difficulties in recruiting. More details can be found here - https://bbf.uk.com/news/supporting-the-tourism-and-hospitality-sector
The events sector The size and therefore significance of the events industry is difficult to estimate as it isn t easily identified using Standard Industry Classification (SIC) codes. The events industry facilitates leisure (e.g. weddings, music festivals, cultural) and business events (e.g. conferences, exhibitions, AGMs). The events industry has been significantly impacted by social distancing restrictions, and looks set to remain largely closed until the Summer of 2021 at least. Businesses within the events supply chain include: caterers; printers; equipment providers; advertising and marketing agencies. Many events firms do not have fixed sites, and therefore have not been eligible for business rates related relief. Events will be officially allowed to operate without restrictions from 19 July 2021.
The health and care sector There is a significant backlog within the health sector as operations and procedures were cancelled during the pandemic. Delays have also led to more complex cases which require greater time. Workforce challenges include: A stretched and burnt-out workforce Infection concerns People choosing to leave the sector or move to part-time hours. There has however been increased interest in job opportunities within the sector. Innovation in terms of mobile alternative care models, online consultations etc has been accelerated. There is an increased focus on supporting people to live at home.
The construction sector There have been mixed fortunes within the local construction sector. Larger firms report a significant stutter during the first lockdown and recruitment pauses, followed by a fairly swift re-bound and activity more or less back to normal by September. Some smaller firms report making one or two employees redundant and being hit by supply chain disruption. Construction firms that work within the events industry were hard hit, with one local scaffolding company folding. Fewer developers and homeowners sought planning permission in Buckinghamshire during the first lockdown - applications fell by a fifth compared to the same period in 2019. However, Buckinghamshire fared better than other areas, with applications across England as a whole falling by a quarter and applications in quarter two in Buckinghamshire being 6% higher than in 2019. HS2 construction work is expected to create 22,000 jobs across the country in the next few years. Locally, EKFB expect to recruit more than 4,000 people over the next two years for its section from Long Itchington Wood site in Warwickshire south to the Chiltern tunnel portals.
The education sector (post-16) More pupils stayed on at school in 2020/21 following GCSEs than usual. Apprenticeship vacancies in 2020 were around 50% down on 2019. Applications increased for first degree and post-graduate study ( panic Masters within Buckinghamshire s Higher Education Institutions (HEIs). There has been increased interest in courses from people considering careers in health and social care and teaching. Buckinghamshire HEIs and college have made their provision more flexible, including more courses starting in January 2021, and condensed first years of courses, to respond to learner demand.
Strategic Growth Sectors Four strategic growth sectors are identified within Buckinghamshire s Local Industrial Strategy: Space Creative and Digital High Performance Technology Medtech These sectors meet the following criteria: Local presence of a nationally or globally significant asset High concentration of jobs in the local economy Strong growth prospects The Covid-19 pandemic will have ramifications for all four, however, it is unlikely to impact their long-term growth trajectory, nor their importance to the local economy. In addition, the pandemic may lead to greater cross-sector innovation and disruption, as some firms are pushed to pivot, diversify, or collaborate.
Creative Industries Immediate impact Speed of bounce-back / long term implications Significant immediate impact The speed of bounce-back will vary within the creative industries Freelancers / short-term contracts - struggled to receive support Software, film and high-end TV expected to return to pre-Covid- 19 trajectories more quickly than live events High number of business enquiries / grant applications Domestic productions and broadcasting have taken longer to return than those backed by US money The live events sector (including music events, award ceremonies, conferences, theatre shows) has been severely hit and will begin to return from 19 July 2021. Development plans for Pinewood Studios signal long-term confidence and potential job creation for the film and TV industry. More widely, the West of London film and TV sector is growing significantly and the sector is experiencing recruitment difficulties. The Skills to Screen: Aviation initiative launched at Pinewood, has had over 300 participants and is now being rolled out nationally
High performance engineering Immediate impact Speed of bounce-back / long term implications Sudden changes in demand and disrupted global supply chains Shift from firefighting (managing cashflow, changing products and services etc) and back to business planning. Need to reconfigure factory floors to ensure staff safety. Opportunities to re-think businesses strategies to take advantage of new opportunities. Fortunes were mixed, with firms operating within automotive and aerospace supply chains amongst the hardest hit. New facilities at Silverstone Park EZ will be completed on time and 40% of the development is already let Businesses from the Silverstone Technology Cluster sourced and manufactured supplies of PPE for front-line healthcare workers. Longer-term, global supply chains are likely to face ongoing pressure. Contingency planning, outsourcing or re-shoring operations, relocating production to the UK may be required. Accelerated adoption of new technologies (such as 3D printing, the internet of things (IoT), advanced robotics, artificial intelligence and big data) to help firms survive in a global marketplace that requires agile and flexible production systems and supply chains
Space Immediate impact Speed of bounce-back / long term implications Less exposed than some other industries, but did face disruption SMEs and start-ups exposed to liquidity dry-ups, especially with the likely decrease of private investments in the short/medium term. Launches postponed, supply chains disrupted, access to finance issues threatening the survival of start-ups, and events cancelled However, strong government interest in the sector makes it more resilient long-term. Much activity could be undertaken remotely, and the sector was used to multi-partner remote working Sector has a critical role to play in combating climate change, and helping prepare for and mitigate other key risks identified on the National Risk Register. Westcott Innovation centre opened on 19 October 2020. Fully flexible engineering facility, giving businesses the opportunity to use specialist equipment for light mechanical engineering and rapid prototyping activities. A number of firms that have been supported through the Westcott Business Incubation Centre have now entered growth phases.
MedTech Immediate impact Speed of bounce-back / long term implications The MedTech industry is playing a crucial role in ensuring that the right technologies are available, at scale and speed to combat Covid- 19. Expected to bounce-back relatively quickly. Negative supply chain impacts for non-Covid-19 related healthcare products likely to subside. Pandemic has accelerated the uptake of digital health products and services. Variation in how segments of the Med Tech sector have affected by the Covid-19 pandemic: PPE / ICU equipment increased demand. Emergency services equipment reduced demand (fewer people out and about resulting in fewer accidents). Elective surgery equipment significant drop in demand. Increased demand for care within the home. General public have embraced using technologies to access medical services. Long-term outlook remains strong. Medical reps had to be furloughed as they could not go into hospitals.
Labour market context Pre Covid-19, Buckinghamshire s labour market was in a fairly strong position: high employment, low unemployment (although unemployment had been slowly rising) Buckinghamshire has one of the least self-contained labour markets in the county, and is a net exporter of workers. 34% of working age residents commute out of the county, 13% commute to London. Residents travel to work out of Buckinghamshire for higher paid jobs (workplace earnings are lower than resident earnings) A higher proportion of those working in the Buckinghamshire economy are self- employed individuals with no employees than nationally (16% versus 12%). Source: Census 2011
Working residents and the Buckinghamshire workforce 234,500 working residents 227,300 people working in Buckinghamshire 79,500 people commute in 86,700 residents commute out 147,800 people both live and work in Buckinghamshire (28% of (34% of working residents) Buckinghamshire s workforce) 52,700 to other locations 34,000 to London Buckinghamshire is a net exporter of workers Generally speaking, workers travel out of Bucks for higher paid jobs (13% of all working residents) (21% of all working residents)
Hardest hit workers Workers hardest hit as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic have been: Young people The low paid The newly self-employed Those in insecure work (e.g. zero-hour or short-term contracts) Those who are self-employed and earning over the threshold for financial support Company directors paid via dividends Those unable to work from home (more likely to be furloughed) Those looking after children Older workers losing jobs later in life
UK employee work situation by sector (14 27 June 2021) National data from wave 34 of the ONS Business Impact of Coronavirus Survey shows that across all industries, 64% of employees were estimated to be working at their normal workplace in late June, 27% were working remotely and 5% were on partial of full furlough leave. There is variation between sectors, with 15% of the arts, entertainment and recreation industry on furlough, compared to 5% across all industries. The IT industry has the highest proportion of its workforce working remotely, whilst the health and social care sector (private sector element only), transport and storage, and manufacturing sectors had the highest proportion working at their normal workplace. Given the occupational profile of Buckinghamshire s working residents, we estimate that homeworking is slightly more prevalent in the county than nationally. Source: Office for National Statistics Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (Wave 34)
Number of employees furloughed by month (Buckinghamshire residents) On 31 May 2021, 20,600 employees residing in Buckinghamshire were furloughed. This equates to 8% of those eligible, which is in line with the national average. 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Source: HMRC, July 2021
Furloughing by sector (Buckinghamshire) Number of residents furloughed, by sector Data for Buckinghamshire shows that the hospitality sector had the largest number of employees on furlough at the end of May 2021, followed by the wholesale and retail sector. However, numbers have dropped significantly since the end of February. A relatively high proportion of employees on furlough are in sectors that are less susceptible to Covid-19 restriction disruption, such as the professional, scientific and technical sector, the admin and support services sector and the information and communication sector. Hospitality Wholesale & retail Professional, scientific & technical Admin & support services Transport & storage ICT, finance & real estate Manufacturing Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Other service activities Health & social work Education Public admin & defence Agriculture, mining & utilities 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 31-May 28-Feb Source: HMRC, 2021
Claimant Count Summary June 2021 (for further details see Buckinghamshire LEP s monthly Claimant Count report) In June 2021, 13,005Buckinghamshire residents were claiming out-of-work related benefits (the Claimant Count). The number of claimants in Buckinghamshire fell by 885 between May 2021 and June 2021, to the lowest level in 12 months. There were 7,465 more claimants in Buckinghamshire in June 2021 than at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020. Buckinghamshire s Claimant Count rate (number of claimants as a proportion of working age residents) currently stands at 4%,down from 4.2% in May 2021, and lower than the national average of 5.7%. When compared to other LEP areas, Buckinghamshire has the 7th lowest Claimant Count rate (up from having the fourth lowest rate pre-pandemic). Buckinghamshire s Claimant Count rate was 2.3 percentage points higher in June 2021 than March 2020, compared to 2.7 percentage points higher nationally. Within Buckinghamshire, the Claimant Count rate is highest in the Wycombe parliamentary constituency area (5.8%). The number of young people (aged 16-24) claiming has increased at a greater rate than other age groups. London has experienced the largest increase in Claimant Count rates, with edge-of-London areas (particularly those close to Heathrow and Gatwick airports) tending to see higher than average increases in Claimant Count rates and higher than average levels of furloughing.
Claimant Count January 2019 to April 2021 18,000 7.0 16,000 7,465 more claimants in June 2021 than in March 2020 6.0 14,000 5.0 12,000 4.0 10,000 8,000 3.0 6,000 2.0 4,000 1.0 2,000 0 0.0 Bucks - number Bucks % England % Source: DWP, via NOMIS
Claimant Count March 2020 to June 2021 Area March 2020 June 2021 March 2020 - June 2021 Parliamentary constituency Number % Number % Change % point change Aylesbury 1,420 1.8 1,630 2.1 3,050 3.9 Beaconsfield 820 1.4 1,460 2.4 2,280 3.8 Buckingham 710 1.1 1,150 1.8 1,860 2.9 Chesham and Amersham Wycombe 750 1.4 1,060 1.9 1,810 3.3 1,840 2.6 2,170 3.2 4,010 5.8 Buckinghamshire 7,465 2.3 5,540 1.7 13,005 4.0 England 932,205 2.7 1,063,505 3.0 1,995,710 5.7 Source: DWP, via NOMIS
Claimant Count rate by LEP area (June 2021) 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Solent Humber Cumbria North East London South East Gloucestershire Tees Valley Thames Valley Berkshire West of England Dorset Greater Manchester Greater Lincolnshire Hertfordshire Oxfordshire Sheffield City Region New Anglia Leeds City Region Cornwall and Isles of Scilly Coventry and Warwickshire Enterprise M3 Liverpool City Region Lancashire Black Country Worcestershire The Marches South East Midlands Coast to Capital Cheshire and Warrington Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire Leicester and Leicestershire Heart of the South West Greater Birmingham and Solihull Swindon and Wiltshire Greater Cambridge and Greater Peterborough York, North Yorkshire and East Riding Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire Buckinghamshire Source: DWP, via NOMIS
Claimant Count rate % point change (March 2020 to June 2021) by LEP area 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Black Country The Marches Cumbria Coast to Capital Leeds City Region South East Midlands Humber Tees Valley Oxfordshire Heart of the South West London Hertfordshire West of England Greater Manchester Thames Valley Berkshire North East South East New Anglia Cornwall and Isles of Scilly Gloucestershire Leicester and Leicestershire Dorset Lancashire Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire Greater Cambridge and Greater Peterborough Swindon and Wiltshire Cheshire and Warrington York, North Yorkshire and East Riding Greater Birmingham and Solihull Liverpool City Region Coventry and Warwickshire Worcestershire Greater Lincolnshire Sheffield City Region Buckinghamshire Source: DWP, via NOMIS
Claimant Count by age for Buckinghamshire June 2021 March 2020 - June 2021 % change % point change in share Age March 2020 June 2021 885 16% 2,220 17% Aged 16-24 151% 1% 3,065 55% 7,370 57% Aged 25-49 140% 1% 1,590 29% 3,420 26% 115% -2% Aged 50+ 100% 100% 5,540 13,005 Total 135% Source: DWP, via NOMIS Source: DWP, via NOMIS
Characteristics of claimants Between March 2020 and June 2021, the Claimant Count rate in Buckinghamshire for men was 2.6 percentage points higher, compared to 1.9 percentage points higher for women. There is currently no local data on the number of people moving from employment to being economically inactive . Those doing so are more likely to be women than men. Young people have been worst affected age group to date. There was a 151% increase in the number of 16-24 year old claimants in Buckinghamshire between March 2020 and June 2021, compared to a 135% increase across all ages.
Alternative Claimant Count - Bucks 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Definitions of the Claimant Count and Alternative Claimant Count can be found in Buckinghamshire LEP s monthly Claimant Count report Source: DWP, via Stat-Xplore Source: DWP, via Stat-Xplore
Movement of people onto and off out of work benefits 8,000 7,000 6,000 On Flow Off Flow 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - Source: Alternative Claimant Count, DWP, via Stat-Xplore
Self-employment There are approximately, 48,000 self-employed people in Buckinghamshire A higher proportion of Buckinghamshire residents are self-employed than the national average 30,900 self-employed Buckinghamshire residents were identified by HMRC as being eligible for financial support via the Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS). There have been four rounds of SEISS funding. In the first round there were 23,300 claims from self-employed Bucks residents (received by 30 Sept) In the second round there were 20,700 claims from self-employed Bucks residents (received by 30 Sept) In the third round have been 19,200 claims from self-employed Bucks residents (received by 31 Jan) In round four, there have been 16,500 claims from Bucks residents (received by 6 June) 54% of those eligible in Bucks claimed SEISS tranche 4 funding up to 6 June, compared to 58% nationally.
Home working Prior to Covid-19, approximately 26%* of Buckinghamshire s employees had ever worked from home, in line with the national average. In June, approximately 27% of private sector employees were estimated to be working from home (Wave 34, BICS, ONS) The shift of professionals from offices into their homes takes their demand for locally consumed services with them (e.g. coffee shops, cafes, gyms, retail). This is likely to benefit local high streets in residential areas, at the expense of those in city centres that provided for commuters. This could have net benefits for Buckinghamshire. Further information on this zoomshock phenomenon can be found here - https://voxeu.org/article/geography-working-home-and-implications-service- industry?mc_cid=5a0766175a&mc_eid=827ae86ca9 *Local estimate based on national data produced by the Resolution Foundation
Job vacancy (on-line job posting) trends (for further details see Buckinghamshire LEP s monthly Job Postings report) 2019 2020 2021 8,000 Number of job postings 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - Source: Labour Insight, Burning Glass Technologies
Top occupational groups by number of job postings June 2021 0 50 100 150 200 250 Office / Administrative Assistant Customer Service Representative Project Manager Registered General Nurse (RGN) Software Developer / Engineer Account Manager / Representative Teaching Assistant Bookkeeper / Accounting Clerk Caregiver / Personal Care Aide Accountant Care assistant Primary School Teacher Computer Support Specialist Chef Labourer / Material Handler Lawyer Sales Manager Sales Assistant Delivery Driver Receptionist Marketing Manager Recruiter Family / School / General Social Worker Warehouse / Inventory Associate Data for Buckinghamshire General cleaner Source: Labour Insight, Burning Glass Technologies
Job creation: occupations with more job postings in Bucks in Q2 2021 than Q2 2020 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Office / Administrative Assistant Customer Service Representative Project Manager Software Developer / Engineer Account Manager / Representative Labourer / Material Handler Teaching Assistant Chef Computer Support Specialist Accountant Sales Assistant Civil Engineer Demand returned for many business administration occupations in quarter 2 of 2021, including office assistants, customer service reps and account managers. Demand was also higher in Q2 2021 than Q2 2020 for sales and marketing roles. Bookkeeper / Accounting Clerk Marketing Manager Recruiter Lawyer HGV / LGV Class 2 Driver Sales Manager Receptionist Delivery Driver Sales Representative Primary School Teacher Utilities Technician Automotive Service Technician / Mechanic Production Worker Source: Labour Insight, Burning Glass Technologies
Reduced demand: occupations with fewer job postings in Bucks in Q2 2021 than Q2 2020 -90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 Care assistant Caregiver / Personal Care Aide Nursing Home / Home Health Administrator Nursing Assistant / Healthcare Assistant Product Manager Compared to the first three months of the pandemic, demand for care and nursing assistant roles was lower in Q2 of 2021. Healthcare Manager Computer Programmer Vocational Education Trainer / Tutor Secondary School Teacher Health Visitor Source: Labour Insight Source: Labour Insight, Burning Glass Technologies
Employers are struggling to recruit, which is hindering economic recovery With high numbers still claiming unemployment related benefit or on furlough, why are employers currently reporting severe recruitment difficulties? Many issues occurring at once have led to a shock to the system. Including - A surge in recruitment, with many employers seeking to recruit at the same time. As the country came out of lockdown and employers felt they could plan again with more certainty. This is likely to be causing bottlenecks with some candidates interviewing for multiple jobs and turning some down leading to the need to re-advertise - Reduced availability of EU workers due to Covid-19 border controls and the government s post-Brexit immigration rules. This is a particular issue for sectors such as construction, hospitality, care, logistics and manufacturing. And local residents not wishing to take up some roles due to low pay and working conditions. - Reduced pool of students entering the labour market due to staying in education whilst the job market was disrupted.
And also.. - People not wishing to take up opportunities in certain sectors due to higher risk of Covid-19 infection (e.g. care sector, hospitality) - A mismatch between the skills and experience of job seekers and the jobs available in the local labour market - Jobseekers not wishing to change careers / enter different, particularly if it would involve a pay cut or worse - Large companies winning in bidding wars for new staff, and also more likely to be able to take advantage of government training schemes. A potential disadvantage for Buckinghamshire s small business economy. Plus, a continuation of reasons that existed pre-Covid (e.g. lack of awareness of opportunities in sectors such as TV & film, unfavourable working conditions, barriers such as access to locations etc)
Number of claimants to job vacancies is low in Buckinghamshire and surrounding LEP areas compared to other parts of the country * Data is for May 2021 Number of claimants per online job posting 8.4 Tees Valley LEP 0 2 4 6 >8 No data 7.9 Liverpool City Region LEP The higher the rate, the more claimants there are to each vacancy. 2.8 South East Midlands LEP 2.3 Buckinghamshire LEP 3.7 London LEP 1.6 Oxfordshire LEP 2.3 Thames Valley Berkshire LEP Source: Claimant Count via Nomis Job postings via Burning Glass Technologies
