Delve into the intricate world of travel demand modeling systems, where complexity arises from dynamic feedback, stochastic effects, uncertainty, and system structure. Discover the balance needed to minimize complicatedness while maximizing behavioral complexity in regional travel modeling. Uncover

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Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle, proposed by German scientist Werner Heisenberg in 1927, states the impossibility of simultaneously and accurately determining the position and momentum of microscopic particles like electrons. This principle challenges classical concepts of definite position and m

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Exploring Bayesian reasoning principles such as Bayesian inference and Naïve Bayes algorithm in the context of uncertainty. The content covers the sources of uncertainty, decision-making strategies, and practical examples like predicting alarm events based on probabilities.

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The U.S. Army Modeling and Simulation Office (AMSO) serves as the lead activity in developing strategy and policy for the Army Modeling and Simulation Enterprise. It focuses on effective governance, resource management, coordination across various community areas, and training the Army Analysis, Mod

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This presentation unveils the Capacity Zone modeling calculations for Forward Capacity Auction 17 associated with the 2026-2027 Capacity Commitment Period by ISO-NE PUBLIC. It delves into boundary definitions, import-constrained zone modeling, and market rules guiding the assessments and modeling pr

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This document delves into the modeling, optimization, and simulation of power distribution systems, specifically focusing on Distribution Feeder Modeling and Analysis. It covers the components of a typical distribution feeder, series components, Wye-Connected Voltage Regulator modeling, and equation

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Data modeling involves exploring data-oriented structures, identifying entity types, and assigning attributes similar to class modeling in object-oriented development. Object models should not be solely based on existing data schemas due to impedance mismatches between object and relational paradigm

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Workshop on joint efforts between IEEE 802 and ITU-T Study Group 15 focused on information modeling, data modeling, and system control in the realm of transport systems and equipment. The mandate covers technology architecture, function management, and modeling methodologies like UML to YANG generat

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Geometric modeling in computer-aided design (CAD) is crucially done in three key ways: wireframe modeling, surface modeling, and solid modeling. Wireframe modeling represents objects by their edges, whereas surface modeling uses surfaces, vertices, and edges to construct components like a box. Each

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Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in solving engineering problems efficiently. Numerical methods are powerful tools essential for problem-solving and learning. This chapter explores the importance of studying numerical methods, the concept of mathematical modeling, and the evaluation proces

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Measurement uncertainty in testing is a crucial aspect that characterizes the dispersion of values attributed to a measurand. This uncertainty plays a key role in reporting accurate test results, requiring careful evaluation of all significant contributions. The ISO/IEC Guide 98 GUM provides essenti

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Dynamic Structural Equation Modeling (DSEM) is a powerful analytical tool used to analyze intensive longitudinal data, combining multilevel modeling, time series modeling, structural equation modeling, and time-varying effects modeling. By modeling correlations and changes over time at both individu

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Explore the tension between creativity and efficiency in innovation through Pearsons' Uncertainty Map (1991), which categorizes uncertainty about ends and means. The map helps analyze uncertainty in various innovation processes, from exploratory research to improving existing products, offering insi

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Object modeling is a crucial concept in software development, capturing the static structure of a system by depicting objects, their relationships, attributes, and operations. This modeling method aids in demonstrating systems to stakeholders and promotes a deeper understanding of real-world entitie

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Coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling on horizontally icosahedral and vertically hybrid-isentropic/isopycnic grids is a cutting-edge approach to modeling climate variability. The design goals aim to achieve a global domain with no grid mismatch at the ocean-atmosphere interface, with key indicators such

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This study by A.A. Sonzogni and E.A. McCutchan focuses on developing cumulative fission yield covariances for uncertainty quantification in nuclear reactors. The research involves calculating cumulative fission yields, using decay data and nuclear databases, to improve accuracy in predicting fission

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FASMEE is a collaborative project aimed at assessing and advancing fire and smoke modeling systems through critical measurement techniques and observational data. Led by key technical leads, FASMEE focuses on diverse modeling areas such as fire growth, effects, coupled fire-atmosphere behavior, smok

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Amidst the rise of cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, this study by Dr. Ur Koumba explores the relationship between uncertainty and cryptocurrency returns using a Copula-based approach. The research delves into the impact of uncertainty on the volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, shedding light

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In this lesson, we delve into subarea and corridor studies focusing on travel demand model refinements, highway network coding, corridor congestion relief, and trip assignment theory. Subarea modeling plays a crucial role in forecasting travel within smaller regions with detailed traffic patterns, t

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Known patterns and models exist for heavy rainfall forecasting, but uncertainty remains. Ensembles and probabilities help manage this uncertainty. Sharp edges in precipitation shields are key, with models improving to anticipate these features more accurately. Understanding the dynamics of edges can

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Ensure clarity on modeling goals and uncertainties. Select sample areas strategically based on interest and available data. Determine appropriate resolution for modeling. Define variables to model and validate the model effectively. Assess sample data adequacy and predictor variables availability. E

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Irina Tezaur leads the Quantitative Modeling & Analysis Department, focusing on computational modeling and simulation of complex multi-scale, multi-physics problems. Her work benefits DOE nuclear weapons, national security, and climate missions. By employing innovative techniques like model order re

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A new flexible framework for forward and inverse modeling of stormwater lids is presented. It includes governing equations, hydraulic and contaminant transport, numerical methods, and demonstration cases for various green infrastructure components. The importance of different processes in modeling i

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The uncertainties in the direct radiative forcing of aerosols can be assessed by considering factors such as emissions, lifetime, Mass Absorption Cross Section (MAC), Aerosol Absorption Optical Depth (AAOD), and forcing efficiency. Variations in these factors contribute to the overall uncertainty in

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Reviewing the O2 CO2 calibration uncertainty, recent updates include identifying beam clipping on the reflection photodiode, switching to the transmitted photodiode, correcting time-dependent errors, and reducing overall uncertainty budget to primarily statistical uncertainty. Data and scripts used

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Structural uncertainty dominates fishery management decisions as discussed in the CAPAM workshop on data-weighting. The workshop highlighted the importance of ensemble modeling, protocols for ensemble membership, and communication of ensemble distributions for effective decision-making. Various case

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This research explores the impact of uncertainty and precommitment on social dilemmas, specifically focusing on the Interdependent Security (IDS) scenario. It investigates how precommitment influences investment rates and decision-making in situations involving stochastic losses and risky investment

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Explore the sources of economic, social, and political uncertainty at regional and global levels. Discuss the rising tide of uncontrollable uncertainty and its implications for public policy and communities. Delve into economic globalization, social fragmentation, and the challenges posed by a world

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Probability plays a crucial role in decision-making under uncertainty, where factors like laziness, ignorance, and randomness influence outcomes. This lecture covers key concepts in probability, including outcomes, events, random variables, and conditional independence. It also delves into the chall

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Explore the concept of estimating with uncertainty, focusing on calculating a mean and using standard error to describe the uncertainty in that mean. Delve into human height, a variable described by a normal distribution, to understand how samples may deviate from the true mean. Discover sampling er

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Utilizing Bayesian optimization in ocean modeling, this research explores optimizing mixed layer parameterizations and turbulent kinetic energy closure schemes. It addresses challenges like expensive evaluations of objective functions and the uncertainty of vertical mixing, presenting a solution thr

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Explore the concepts of uncertainty in Bayesian reasoning, including probabilistic effects, multiple causes, and incomplete knowledge. Understand decision-making under uncertainty through rational behavior principles. Delve into scenarios involving alarm systems and predicting outcomes based on prob

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Explore the concept of worry and uncertainty in the mind management skills workshop. Understand the vicious cycle of worry, practice skills to manage worry effectively, and review your progress through homework assignments. Discover how worry is a response to uncertainty and learn strategies to brea

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General Practitioners (GPs) encounter uncertainty in their practice and utilize various strategies to address it. These strategies include safety netting, seeking advice from colleagues, sharing uncertainty with patients, review/follow-up processes, investigations, building rapport, and more. Collea

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Sampling uncertainty arises due to variations in sample values, impacting statistical estimates. Larger samples reduce uncertainty, providing more precise estimates. Adequate sample sizes are crucial, especially for comparing different groups or magnitudes of effects. By quantifying uncertainty, res

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NetLogo is a powerful and versatile programmable modeling environment created by Uri Wilensky in 1999. It allows users to simulate natural and social phenomena by giving instructions to multiple agents operating independently, making it ideal for modeling complex systems evolving over time. NetLogo

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Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is crucial in determining likely outcomes in scenarios with unknown factors. Explore the concept through the Algae Example, where parameters like growth rates pose challenges due to uncertainty. Statistical techniques like MCMC and the DRAM algorithm play key roles in

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Uncertainty in demand planning can lead to inefficiencies in the supply chain. This course covers various tools and techniques to manage demand, supply, and lead time variability, reducing costs and optimizing operations. Learn to recognize and address causes of uncertainty, apply forecasting techni

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Explore the concept of risk and uncertainty in insurance markets, with insights on the definitions, expected value calculations, and practical examples like daily number bets and roulette. Gain a deeper understanding of how risk and uncertainty play crucial roles in decision-making and financial out

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This presentation explores the intricate relationship between confidence, uncertainty, and risk in decision-making processes within engineering design studies. It highlights the importance of considering various perspectives and evaluating potential risks and benefits to make informed decisions. The

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