Thomas Malthus and His Theory on Population Growth

 
 
 
2
 
Thomas Malthus
 
Thomas Robert Malthus (1766 – 1834)
 
The Ordinary Business of Life 
by Roger Backhouse, pages 133-
135
The Worldly Philosophers 
by Robert Heilbroner, Chapter IV (The
Gloomy Presentiments of Parson Malthus and David Ricardo)
New Ideas from Dead Economists 
by Todd Buchholz, Chapter III
(Malthus: Prophet of Doom and Population Boom)
 
3
 
Thomas Malthus
 
Thomas Robert Malthus (1766 – 1834)
 
An Essay on the Principle of Population
 1798
Principles of Political Economy
 1820
 
4
 
Thomas Malthus
 
Population
 
Malthus’s theory of population argued that
population grew at a geometric rate, while
food output grew at an arithmetic rate, and that
food scarcity was, therefore, inevitable.
In other words, nature imposes firm limits on our pursuit of a higher
standard of living.
 
5
 
Thomas Malthus
 
Population
 
Malthus argued that population is affected by
preventive checks, and
positive checks
Preventive checks 
are lifestyle changes that reduce the birth
rate
Positive checks 
raise the death rate
In the absence of preventive checks on population growth,
more painful positive checks will be imposed by nature,
Malthus argued.
 
6
 
Thomas Malthus
 
Iron law of wages
 
Malthus defined the 
subsistence wage 
as a wage at which the
working population does not change.
If the wage 
exceeds
 the subsistence wage, population would
grow rapidly 
owing to the workers’ lack of what Malthus called
“moral restraint”.
This 
increase
 in population would tend to 
reduce
 wages.
 
7
 
Thomas Malthus
 
Iron law of wages
 
If, on the other hand, the wage 
falls below 
the subsistence
wage, population would 
fall
 rapidly owing to hunger.
This 
fall
 in population would tend to 
increase
 wages.
As a result, 
wages would in the long run be equal to the
subsistence wage
.
 
8
 
Thomas Malthus
 
Only moral restraint can help the workers
 
Neither technological progress nor government generosity
would make any difference to the workers’ standard of living.
Why?
According to Malthus, only “moral restraint” would help.
 
9
 
Thomas Malthus
 
Only moral restraint can help the workers
 
Suppose the subsistence wage is currently 2 tons of wheat a year.
That is, suppose this is the wage at which the working population stays constant;
at any higher wage the population grows and grows.
As a result, the workers’ long run wage would be equal to 2 tons of wheat per
year.
Now suppose that, as a result of moral restraint exercised by workers, the
subsistence wage increases to 3 tons of wheat a year.
That is, now—as a result of “moral restraint”—people would have more kids only
if the wage rises above 3 tons of wheat a year.
In this case, the long run wage would also rise to 3 tons of wheat a year.
In this way, Malthus argued that only “moral restraint” by workers could
improve their standard of living
 
10
 
Thomas Malthus
 
But moral restraint won’t happen
 
Malthus had little faith that preventive checks (or, “moral
restraint”) would solve the population problem.
He even argued that society might wish to do whatever it could
to hurry along nature’s positive checks.
 
11
 
Thomas Malthus
 
But moral restraint won’t happen
 
Malthus joined the contemporary policy debate on the Poor
Laws to oppose public assistance to the poor because such
assistance would only swell the ranks of the poor and make the
eventual reckoning with nature’s positive checks all the more
painful.
After gaining immense fame (or, notoriety) because of his
ideas, Malthus in his later years back-pedaled somewhat and
became an advocate of gradualism.
 
12
 
Thomas Malthus
 
Malthus’s theory of population
 
The theory of population used by Malthus had been proposed
earlier by Giovanni Botero and Richard Cantillon.
Malthus’s theory that agricultural output would grow at an
arithmetic rate even though the labor force may be growing at
a geometric rate depended on the notion of diminishing
returns in production.
 
13
 
Thomas Malthus
 
Malthus’s theory of population
 
Although this notion of diminishing returns must have been
obvious to observant people, its analytical treatment was
provided by Turgot, who had used diminishing returns to
construct a theory of investment.
What Malthus added were his analyses of the effect of various
policy measures, of technological progress and of “moral
restraint” on population and the long run standard of living.
 
14
 
Thomas Malthus
 
We are flawed and imperfect
 
Malthus may have been rebelling against his father, Daniel
Malthus, who had been influenced by the utopian writings of
William Godwin
, the 
Marquis de Condorcet
 and 
Bishop Paley
.
These writers had argued that human beings would figure out
the right way on their own.
Paley, in particular, 
welcomed
 the prospect of a larger
population.
Malthus saw this optimism and this belief in the perfectibility
of human society as seriously misguided.
 
15
 
Thomas Malthus
 
Assessment
 
Malthus’s theory of population has by and large been proven
wrong.
Far from running out of food, there have been astonishing
increases in agricultural productivity in advanced countries.
However, Malthus was right, in the sense that the problems of
overpopulation and famine have not disappeared entirely.
Besides, even rich countries may be faced with a different
version of the Malthusian scare in the ruin that their growth
has wrought on the earth's environment.
 
16
 
Thomas Malthus
 
Theory of market gluts
 
Malthus also proposed a theory of market gluts in which an
excess of supply over demand was regarded as possible.
Such market gluts are unwelcome because they lead to
unemployment
Malthus felt that the key to avoiding such gluts lay in the
amount spent by the land-owning class.
If they spent freely, there would be adequate demand, gluts
would be avoided and unemployment would be low.
 
17
 
Thomas Malthus
 
Theory of market gluts
 
One way to ensure high spending by land owners, Malthus
argued in his contribution to the debate on the Corn Laws that
had imposed tariffs on imports of cheap corn, was to keep
those tariffs.
This would raise the price of British agricultural produce, raise
the incomes of the landlords, increase their spending and
thereby avoid the occurrence of a market glut.
 
18
 
Thomas Malthus
 
Theory of market gluts
 
Elements of this theory were later revived as the Keynesian
theory of the short-run role of tariffs under fixed exchange
rates.
Classical theory denied the likelihood of demand being less
than supply
Whether theoretically sound or not, many economists
continue to believe in the real-world truth of this idea
 
19
 
Thomas Malthus
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Thomas Robert Malthus, an influential economist, proposed a theory on population growth in the 18th century. His theory suggested that population grows exponentially while food production increases at a slower rate, leading to inevitable food scarcity. Malthus also discussed the concept of preventive and positive checks on population growth, as well as the Iron Law of Wages. He emphasized the role of moral restraint in controlling population growth and maintaining wages.


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  1. Thomas Malthus Udayan Roy ECO 54 History of Economic Thought

  2. Thomas Malthus 2

  3. Thomas Robert Malthus (1766 1834) The Ordinary Business of Life by Roger Backhouse, pages 133- 135 The Worldly Philosophers by Robert Heilbroner, Chapter IV (The Gloomy Presentiments of Parson Malthus and David Ricardo) New Ideas from Dead Economists by Todd Buchholz, Chapter III (Malthus: Prophet of Doom and Population Boom) Thomas Malthus 3

  4. Thomas Robert Malthus (1766 1834) An Essay on the Principle of Population 1798 Principles of Political Economy 1820 Thomas Malthus 4

  5. Population Malthus s theory of population argued that population grew at a geometric rate, while food output grew at an arithmetic rate, and that food scarcity was, therefore, inevitable. In other words, nature imposes firm limits on our pursuit of a higher standard of living. Thomas Malthus 5

  6. Population Malthus argued that population is affected by preventive checks, and positive checks Preventive checks are lifestyle changes that reduce the birth rate Positive checks raise the death rate In the absence of preventive checks on population growth, more painful positive checks will be imposed by nature, Malthus argued. Thomas Malthus 6

  7. Iron law of wages Malthus defined the subsistence wage as a wage at which the working population does not change. If the wage exceeds the subsistence wage, population would grow rapidly owing to the workers lack of what Malthus called moral restraint . This increase in population would tend to reduce wages. Thomas Malthus 7

  8. Iron law of wages If, on the other hand, the wage falls below the subsistence wage, population would fall rapidly owing to hunger. This fall in population would tend to increase wages. As a result, wages would in the long run be equal to the subsistence wage. Thomas Malthus 8

  9. Only moral restraint can help the workers Neither technological progress nor government generosity would make any difference to the workers standard of living. Why? According to Malthus, only moral restraint would help. Thomas Malthus 9

  10. Only moral restraint can help the workers Suppose the subsistence wage is currently 2 tons of wheat a year. That is, suppose this is the wage at which the working population stays constant; at any higher wage the population grows and grows. As a result, the workers long run wage would be equal to 2 tons of wheat per year. Now suppose that, as a result of moral restraint exercised by workers, the subsistence wage increases to 3 tons of wheat a year. That is, now as a result of moral restraint people would have more kids only if the wage rises above 3 tons of wheat a year. In this case, the long run wage would also rise to 3 tons of wheat a year. In this way, Malthus argued that only moral restraint by workers could improve their standard of living Thomas Malthus 10

  11. But moral restraint wont happen Malthus had little faith that preventive checks (or, moral restraint ) would solve the population problem. He even argued that society might wish to do whatever it could to hurry along nature s positive checks. Thomas Malthus 11

  12. But moral restraint wont happen Malthus joined the contemporary policy debate on the Poor Laws to oppose public assistance to the poor because such assistance would only swell the ranks of the poor and make the eventual reckoning with nature s positive checks all the more painful. After gaining immense fame (or, notoriety) because of his ideas, Malthus in his later years back-pedaled somewhat and became an advocate of gradualism. Thomas Malthus 12

  13. Malthuss theory of population The theory of population used by Malthus had been proposed earlier by Giovanni Botero and Richard Cantillon. Malthus s theory that agricultural output would grow at an arithmetic rate even though the labor force may be growing at a geometric rate depended on the notion of diminishing returns in production. Thomas Malthus 13

  14. Malthuss theory of population Although this notion of diminishing returns must have been obvious to observant people, its analytical treatment was provided by Turgot, who had used diminishing returns to construct a theory of investment. What Malthus added were his analyses of the effect of various policy measures, of technological progress and of moral restraint on population and the long run standard of living. Thomas Malthus 14

  15. We are flawed and imperfect Malthus may have been rebelling against his father, Daniel Malthus, who had been influenced by the utopian writings of William Godwin, the Marquis de Condorcet and Bishop Paley. These writers had argued that human beings would figure out the right way on their own. Paley, in particular, welcomed the prospect of a larger population. Malthus saw this optimism and this belief in the perfectibility of human society as seriously misguided. Thomas Malthus 15

  16. Assessment Malthus s theory of population has by and large been proven wrong. Far from running out of food, there have been astonishing increases in agricultural productivity in advanced countries. However, Malthus was right, in the sense that the problems of overpopulation and famine have not disappeared entirely. Besides, even rich countries may be faced with a different version of the Malthusian scare in the ruin that their growth has wrought on the earth's environment. Thomas Malthus 16

  17. Theory of market gluts Malthus also proposed a theory of market gluts in which an excess of supply over demand was regarded as possible. Such market gluts are unwelcome because they lead to unemployment Malthus felt that the key to avoiding such gluts lay in the amount spent by the land-owning class. If they spent freely, there would be adequate demand, gluts would be avoided and unemployment would be low. Thomas Malthus 17

  18. Theory of market gluts One way to ensure high spending by land owners, Malthus argued in his contribution to the debate on the Corn Laws that had imposed tariffs on imports of cheap corn, was to keep those tariffs. This would raise the price of British agricultural produce, raise the incomes of the landlords, increase their spending and thereby avoid the occurrence of a market glut. Thomas Malthus 18

  19. Theory of market gluts Elements of this theory were later revived as the Keynesian theory of the short-run role of tariffs under fixed exchange rates. Classical theory denied the likelihood of demand being less than supply Whether theoretically sound or not, many economists continue to believe in the real-world truth of this idea Thomas Malthus 19

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