Uganda's Export Performance During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Policies for Growth
Emmanuel Mutahunga's presentation at the Economic Growth Forum highlighted Uganda's export performance amidst the global trade challenges of COVID-19. The impact of the pandemic on labor supply, trade costs, and sectoral demand was discussed, along with containment measures and their effects. Strategies for driving export growth post-pandemic were also explored.
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UGANDAS EXPORT PERFORMANCE DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC, AND POLICIES TO DRIVE EXPORT GROWTH Presentation by Emmanuel Mutahunga at the Economic Growth Forum V Organized by Ministry of Finance, Planning & Economic Development , and the International Growth Centre January 13th2022 12/13/2021 1
Presentation Layout COVID-19 Times Global trade performance amidst COVID- 19 Uganda s export performance during covid-19 Using trade to drive recovery Policies to drive export growth 12/13/2021 2
COVID-19 Times Corona virus which causes COVID-19 was first detected in China, and first reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11th January 2020 Rapidly spread to many other countries in the world and on 11th March 2020, the World Health Organization declared it a pandemic 12/13/2021 3
COVID-19 Times On 21st March 2020, Uganda registered the first case of COVID-19; and scaled up her efforts to stop the spread of the virus in the country COVID-19 Containment Measures, globally, have manifested in form of: Travel Restrictions, Ban/restrictions on Social activities, Home confinements, Closure of non-essential businesses, Factory scale- downs, social distancing requirements, mandatory health checks, e.t.c 12/13/2021 4
General Impact of COVID-19 General reduction of labour supply Rise in trade costs Reduction in demand and supply in sectors most affected by the containment measures *** rise in trade costs is mainly due to heightened border controls and restrictions to personal travel, ultimately resulting in reduction in demand for durable manufactured/industrial goods - implying a significant negative impact on the industry/manufacturing sector 12/13/2021 5
General Impact of COVID-19 Increased costs of transporting goods and services, mainly due to four reasons: i. Air cargo prices have increased because of the lack of cargo-belly capacity in passenger planes ii. Because of increased border controls, the time in transit for goods has increased iii. Trade costs for services are increasing because of severe travel restrictions iv. Most of the equipment used in industrial production requires travel of specialized workers 12/13/2021 6
General Impact of COVID-19 The WTO World Trade Report 2021 notes: i. COVID-19 pandemic delivered unprecedented shocks to global supply chains and trade relations among countries In 2020, the value of global trade in goods and services in nominal dollar terms fell by 9.6%, while global GDP fell by 3.3% - the most severe recession since World War II 12/13/2021 7
General Impact of COVID-19 According to the WTO s most recent forecast, global economic output (at market exchange rates) is projected to recover by 5.3% in 2021 - thanks to the robust recovery in merchandise trade, which is set to rise by 8% in 2021 However, trade in services continues to remain depressed 12/13/2021 8
General Impact of COVID-19 The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated existing gender inequalities in employment rates and hours worked due to women s greater responsibility for child and elderly care, as well as their greater representation in face-to-face services disproportionately affected by the pandemic. Micro, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, which tend to have poorer and more vulnerable workforces, have suffered more than larger firms from the effects of the pandemic, owing to their limited access to finance, physical and digital infrastructure, and to information on risk management 12/13/2021 9
General Impact of COVID-19 In global terms, economic disruptions have had a greater impact on developing countries, and in particular on smaller, poorer countries, than on advanced economies. 12/13/2021 10
Ugandas Export Performance During the Pandemic Merchandise Trade: Average monthly exports for 6 months before the pandemic: USD 338.48M, compared to 357.78M during the first 6 months of the pandemic/lockdown in Uganda Average monthly exports for 12 months before the pandemic: USD 327.65M, compared to 394.25M during the first 12 months of the pandemic/lockdown in Uganda 12/13/2021 11
Ugandas Export Performance During the Pandemic Average monthly merchandise exports without Gold: 12 months preceding lockdown: USD 242.7M compared to USD 222.09M in the first 12 months of lockdown 6 months immediately preceding lockdown: USD253.08M compared to 188.86M in the first 6 months {shock impact} 12/13/2021 12
Ugandas Export Performance During the Pandemic Average monthly merchandise exports in the first 11 months of 2021: USD 380.974M (gold included) and USD 287.03M (gold excluded) Average monthly merchandise exports in the first 11 months of 2019: USD 341.7M (gold included) and USD 236.36M (gold excluded) 12/13/2021 13
Ugandas Export Performance During the Pandemic Services exports more severely hurt by the pandemic than Merchandise exports Performance of Services Exports: i. 2018/19 USD 2.4596B ii. 2019/20 USD 1.6759B (68% of 2018/19 level) iii. 2020/21 USD 1.3558B (55.1% of 2018/19 level) 12/13/2021 14
Using Trade to Drive Recovery Trade contributes to speeding up economic recovery from crises - thanks to sustained foreign demand on the export side and the availability of intermediate products and services on the import side Trade is an important recovery mechanism for many developing and least-developed countries, which have limited ability to spur economic recovery through fiscal stimulus packages 12/13/2021 15
Using Trade to Drive Recovery World Trade Report 2021 - GDP recovered faster in countries with strong pre-existing trade linkages to countries with few COVID-19 cases, underscoring the mutual supportiveness of trade, economic growth and risk management The pandemic has also shown that digital trade offers numerous solutions for a faster and more inclusive recovery 12/13/2021 16
Driving Export Growth Regional markets helped Uganda s exports remain resilient during COVID-19 times: consolidate them address NTBs Traditional markets, mainly the EU, registered growth (USD 504.09M in 2018/19; USD 512.52M in 2019/20, and USD 563.45M in 2020/21: consolidate them and invest in addressing their market requirements especially on Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Measures 12/13/2021 17
Driving Export Growth Industrial products maintained a steadfast performance: scale up investments in industry, and address competitiveness concerns to drive up manufacturing and processing Gold exports shored up the country s exports during the pandemic, but have remained NIL since new tax measures were introduced in FY 2021/22: revisit the tax measure 12/13/2021 18
Driving Export Growth Informal cross border trade was more severely hit; and mainly employs vulnerable groups: put in place a special recovery program for this group, just like we have done for SMEs Increase production Quality and Quantity to satisfy market demand Overall, adapt and adopt COVID 19 here to stay and we must build our lives around it 12/13/2021 19
