Analysis of Democratic Dominance in Presidential Elections and Potential Senate Seat Flips in 2016

Democratic candidates have consistently won Democratic stronghold states in presidential elections since 1992, securing a significant portion of the Electoral College votes. Meanwhile, Republicans face challenges in holding onto Senate seats in states like Illinois, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Key races to watch include Kirk vs. Duckworth, Johnson vs. Feingold, Ayotte vs. Hassan, Toomey vs. McGinty, and Portman vs. Strickland.

• Democratic dominance
• Presidential elections
• Senate seat flips
• 2016 elections
• Battleground states

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1. Federal Update Cornerstone Government Affairs September 20, 2016

2. Dems Own 90 % of Electoral College Votes Dems Have Won 242 Electoral Votes Six Times in a Row Democratic Stronghold States and Electoral College Votes Won: 1992-2012 12 4 10 3 7 10 29 +3 16 MA:11 RI: 4 +6 +8 20 CT: 7 +8 +8 NJ:14 DE: 3 +8 DC: 3 20 +2 55 +3 MD: 10 +1 +2 Analysis Since 1992, Democratic candidates have won18 states and D.C. have voted Democratic six times in a row, adding up to 242 electoral votes 89.6% of the 270 votes needed for victory more than 300 electoral votes 4 out of 6 times HI: 4

3. Of 11 Battleground States, Romney Won Only NC in 2012 2012 Presidential Election Battleground States: Electoral College 4 10 16 20 6 6 18 9 13 15 29 Romney Barack Obama (D) Obama Mitt Romney (R)

5. Republicans Currently Hold the Five Senate Seats Most Likely to Flip in 2016 Hotline s 2016 Senate Rankings Seat Held by Republican Seat Held by Democrat 1. Illinois: Sen. Mark Kirk (R) is trailing in polls in a blue state, and is lacking in support from outside spending groups. Kirk has publicly disavowed Trump in a TV ad, seeking to distance himself from his party. 2. Wisconsin: Former senator Russ Feingold (D) is running an aggressive campaign against Ron Johnson (R), but Johnson has ample support from outside spending groups. NH WI PA OH IL 3. New Hampshire: New Hampshire voted Democratic by 6 and 9 points in the last two presidential elections, so Kelly Ayotte (R) is likely to need a significant number of voters supporting both her and Hillary Clinton to win, which won t be easy against the state s current governor Maggie Hassan (D). NV MS NC AZ 4. Pennsylvania: National Democrats spent $5 million to get their chosen candidate, 2014 gubernatorial candidate Katie McGinty (D), through a messy nominating fight. Pat Toomey (R) has a lot of money to spend in his effort to brand himself as independent from his party. FL 6. Nevada: 6. Nevada: Open (D) 7. Florida: 7. Florida: Marco Rubio (R) 8. North Carolina: 8. North Carolina: Richard Burr (R) 9. Missouri: 9. Missouri: Roy Blunt (R) 10. Arizona: 10. Arizona: John McCain (R) 5. Ohio: Rob Portman (R) sits on slightly safer ground than some colleagues, thanks to an incredible fundraising year and a proactive reelection campaign, but he still faces a former governor with near universal name recognition, Ted Strickland (D).

6. Which Senate Seats Are Most Likely to Flip? Hotline s 2016 Senate Rankings State Incumbent Challenger Polling Not enough polling 1. Illinois Mark Kirk (R) Tammy Duckworth (D) 2. Wisconsin Ron Johnson (R) Russ Feingold (D) 3. New Hampshire Kelly Ayotte (R) Maggie Hassan (D) 4. Pennsylvania Pat Toomey (R) Katie McGinty (D) 5. Ohio Rob Portman (R) Ted Strickland (D)

7. Federal Appropriations Land-Grant NIFA Priorities ($Millions) FY 2016 FY 2017 APLU Request 304.000 Priority President s Request 300.000 Enacted House Senate Smith-Lever 3(b)-(c) 300.000 300.000 300.000 Hatch-Act 243.701 243.701 256.201 243.701 243.701 Evans-Allen (1890s Research) 54.185 58.000 60.500 54.185 54.185 1890 Institutions Extension 45.620 48.350 49.350 45.620 45.620 McIntire-Stennis AFRI 33.961 350.000 33.961 375.000 35.500 700.000 33.961 375.000 375.000 33.961

8. APLU Priorities vs. Total NIFA FY16 - FY 10 Dollar Change FY 16 - FY 10 % Change FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 AFRI 262.482 264.470 264.470 276.423 316.409 325.000 350.000 87.518 33% Hatch 215.000 236.334 236.334 218.342 243.701 243.701 243.701 28.701 13% McIntire-Stennis 29.000 32.934 32.934 30.427 33.961 33.961 33.961 4.961 17% Smith-Lever 297.500 293.911 294.000 271.068 300.000 300.000 300.000 2.500 1% Evans-Allen 48.500 50.898 50.898 47.023 52.485 52.485 54.185 5.685 12% 1890s Extension 42.677 42.592 42.592 39.270 43.920 43.920 45.620 2.943 7% Research and Education Activities 788.243 700.140 705.599 738.638 772.559 786.874 819.685 31.442 4% Extension Activities 494.923 480.092 475.183 475.854 469.191 471.691 475.891 (19.032) -4% Integrated Activities 60.022 37.000 21.482 21.482 35.317 30.900 30.900 (29.122) -49% Total NIFA 1,343.188 1,217.232 1,202.264 1,235.974 1,277.067 1,289.465 1,326.476 (16.712) -1%