Fresh Mushroom Sales Trends and Contribution Analysis

The report covers the dollar and unit sales trends of fresh mushrooms for the four weeks ending January 28, 2024, showing a decline compared to previous years. It also highlights the mushroom's share of total produce and vegetables, which has remained stable but below average. Data is based on the Circana total multi-outlet universe. Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO.

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• Fresh Mushroom Sales
• Produce Analysis
• Market Trends
• Vegetable Consumption
• Circana Data

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Uploaded on Mar 26, 2024 | 0 Views

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1. Period ending January 28, 2024 1

2. Methodology The report covers the four weeks ending 28 January, 2024 with week endings: January 7, 2024 January 14, 2024 January 21, 2024 January 28, 2024 Dollar references are the retail value, volume is reflected in pounds and units (packages) Data is based on the Circana total multi-outlet (MULO) universe, which includes supermarkets, supercenters, club, commissaries, etc. It excludes specialty stores (Whole Foods, Sprouts, etc.), ALDI and Costco Package size, organic, fixed/random weight and value-added have been updated to reflect the total market rather than being SKU-based Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks ending 1/28/2024 2

3. Four-year dollar sales trend Sales trended below year-ago levels in the shorter- and longer-term views Fresh mushrooms dollar sales latest 52 w.e. 1/28/2024 Fresh mushrooms dollar sales four w.e. 1/28/2024 $1.412B $118.7M $1.315B $1.285B $111.4M $1.244B $107.7M $103.8M 3YA 2YA YA 4 w.e. 1/28/24 3YA 2YA YA 52 w.e. 1/28/24 Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks and 52 w.e. 1/28/2024 versus same periods the past four years 3

4. Four-year unit sales trend The shorter- and longer-term unit trends reflect the market pressure with continued declines for both time periods Fresh mushrooms unit sales four w.e. 1/28/2024 Fresh mushrooms unit sales latest 52 w.e. 1/28/2024 44,102,873 529,782,977 39,500,779 481,096,993 36,417,322 441,192,704 34,687,300 420,226,333 3YA 2YA YA 4 w.e. 1/28/24 3YA 2YA YA 52 w.e. 1/28/24 Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks and 52 w.e. ending 1/28/2024 versus same periods the past four years 4

5. Four-year volume (pound) sales trend In the YTD and the quad-week view, pounds continued to trend behind last year s and prior years levels Fresh mushrooms volume sales latest 52 w.e. 1/28/2024 Fresh mushrooms volume sales four w.e. 1/28/2024 27,695,748 332,371,230 24,734,085 303,729,186 22,870,026 277,442,207 21,701,415 265,334,422 3YA 2YA YA 4 w.e. 1/28/24 3YA 2YA YA 52 w.e. 1/28/24 Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks and 52 w.e. ending 1/28/2024 versus same periods the past four years 5

6. Mushroom contribution to the department and category The mushroom share of total produce and vegetables remains below average but has held stable in the past few months 4 w.e. 1/28/2024 Mushroom $ share Share of total produce Share of total vegetables L-52 w.e. 1/28/2024 Mushroom $ share Share of total produce Share of total vegetables 3YA 3YA 2.2% 4.2% 2.0% 3.9% 2YA 2YA 2.0% 4.0% 1.8% 3.7% YA YA 1.9% 3.6% 1.7% 3.5% 4 w.e. 1/28/2024 52 w.e. 1/28/2024 1.8% 3.5% 1.6% 3.3% Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks and 52 w.e. ending 1/28/2024 6

7. Mushrooms price per unit On a per unit basis, mushroom prices increased very slightly whereas total vegetables experienced a decrease 4 w.e. 1/28/2024 Average price/unit Total produce Total vegetables Mushrooms 3YA $2.30 $2.10 $2.69 2YA $2.51 $2.22 $2.82 YA $2.64 $2.41 $2.96 4 w.e. 1/28/2024 $2.68 | +1.4% $2.37 | -1.6% $2.99 | +1.2% Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, YTD weeks ending 1/28/2024 7

8. Mushroom price per volume (pound) On a pound basis, vegetables experienced substantial deflation whereas mushroom prices increased 4 w.e. 1/28/2024 Average price/pound Total produce Total vegetables Mushrooms 3YA $1.72 $1.84 $4.29 2YA $1.87 $1.91 $4.50 YA $1.98 $2.09 $4.71 4 w.e. 1/28/2024 $1.99 | +0.3% $2.03 | -2.9% $4.78 | +1.6% Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, YTD weeks ending 1/28/2024 8

9. Price per volume by quarter/month The rate of inflation on a per pound basis peaked in the middle of 2022 Mushrooms price per pound and change vs. YA (fixed and random weight) $5.00 9.0% 8.0% $4.60 $4.68 $4.71 $4.69 $4.65 $4.69 $4.70 $4.70 $4.78 6.9% 7.9%8.4% $4.80 7.0% 6.0% $4.60 $4.48 5.0% $4.13$4.19$4.25 $4.23$4.25$4.27 $4.27$4.32 $4.40 2.3%2.5%3.1% 2.1% 2.3% 4.9% $4.40 4.9% 4.0% 3.0% 3.5% 1.6% $4.20 2.0% 1.9% 1.0% 1.8% $4.00 0.4% 0.9%0.1% 0.0% -0.2% -0.1% Q4 23 $3.80 -1.0% 2019 4 WE 1/28/24 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Q2 22 Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 4 WE 12/31/23 Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 2019-w.e. 1/28/2024 9

10. Price per volume and unit by type 4 w.e.1/28/2024 Price per pound % change vs. 23 % change vs. 22 Total mushrooms $2.99 +1.2% +6.2% White mushrooms $2.73 +2.9% +6.6% Brown mushrooms $3.20 -1.4% +4.9% Specialty mushrooms $4.78 +0.9% +5.3% 4 w.e. 1/28/2024 Price per unit % change vs. 23 % change vs. 22 Total mushrooms $4.78 +1.6% +6.2% White mushrooms $4.29 +4.5% +8.0% Brown mushrooms $5.02 -2.5% +3.4% Specialty mushrooms $13.64 -3.7% -0.4% Brown mushrooms include crimini and portabella Specialty mushrooms include shiitake, oyster, enoki, chanterelle, morel, wood ear, porcini, black forest, lion s mane and other Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 w.e. 1/28/2024 10

11. Mushroom dollar, unit, volume sales Declines continue to sit around 5% versus year ago levels 4 w.e. 1/28/2024 dollars $103.8M -3.6% -4.8% -5.1% Dollar Unit Volume growth vs. YA growth vs. YA growth vs. YA volume (lbs) 21.7M -6.8% vs. 22 -12.5% vs. 21 -12.3% vs. 22 -21.6% vs. 21 -12.2% vs. 22 -21.3% vs. 21 Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks ending 1/28/2024 11

12. Vegetables and mushroom pound sales vs. YA While both vegetable and mushroom pounds trended below year-ago levels, the volume pressure on mushroom sales is greater Volume (pound) sales versus year ago Fresh vegetables vs YA Fresh mushrooms vs. YA 17.0% 15.1% 0.4% -1.6% 0.2% -0.4% -0.7% -1.0% -1.1% -1.4% -2.1% Q1 '23 -2.3% 4 we 12/31/23 -3.1% Q2 '22 -4.1% Q3 '22 2019 2020 2021 Q1 '22 Q4 '22 Q2 '23 Q3 '23 Q4 '23 4 we 1/28/24 -5.4% -7.3% -2.9% -4.1% -3.6% -8.9% -5.1% -5.0% -10.2% -10.2% -5.9% -6.3% Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 2019-w.e. 1/28/2024 12

13. Share of dollars sold on merchandising Promotional levels were up from last year Fresh mushrooms 4 w.e. Vs. Latest 52 w.e. 1/28/2024 Vs. 1/28/2024 2023 2023 Share of dollars sold on promotion 18.3% +11.0% 18.1% +15.6% * Any merchandising, including feature, display, feature & display and temporary price reductions Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, YTD through weeks ending 1/28/2024 13

14. Base and incremental sales Incremental sales remain a very small part of the business Dollar sales w.e. 1/28/2024 Volume sales w.e. 1/28/2024 Base Incremental Base Incremental $1,400,000,000 300,000,000 3.7% incremental 7.0% incremental $1,200,000,000 250,000,000 $1,000,000,000 200,000,000 $800,000,000 150,000,000 $600,000,000 100,000,000 $400,000,000 5.9% incremental 3.4% incremental 50,000,000 $200,000,000 $0 0 L-52 we 1/28/24 4 we 1/28/24 L-52 we 1/28/24 4 we 1/28/24 Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks ending 1/28/2024 14

15. Over indexing versus under indexing regions The Mid-South and Southeast remain interesting areas for growth Use as comparison to understand importance/size of mushrooms L-52 w.e. 1/28/2024 Share of veg. $ Share of mushrooms $ $ sales growth WEST WEST PLAINS PLAINS vs. YA GREAT LAKES GREAT LAKES Total US California Great Lakes Mid-South Northeast Plains South Central Southeast West 100.0% 11.2% 13.2% 13.3% 18.0% 6.6% 9.2% 15.7% 12.9% 100.0% 12.3% 15.0% 11.9% 18.2% 6.4% 7.2% 13.6% 15.5% -3.2% -4.2% -3.5% -2.4% -2.3% -2.8% -4.5% -2.8% -3.6% NORTHEAST NORTHEAST MID SOUTH MID SOUTH CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA SOUTHEAST SOUTHEAST SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH CENTRAL = Above-average share vs. veg = Above-average performance vs. total US Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, YTD through 1/28/2024 | Total fresh vegetables and total fresh mushrooms 15

16. Performance summary whites, browns and specialty Brown mushrooms had the strongest performance in the short and longer term Dollar share $ sales vs. 2023 $ sales vs. 2021 Volume (lbs) Lbs Lbs Lbs vs. 2021 4 weeks ending 1/28/2024 Dollars share vs. 2023 $103.8M 100.0% -3.6% -12.5% 21.7M 100.0% -5.1% -21.6% Total fresh mushrooms $53.0M 51.1% -5.2% -16.9% 12.4M 57.0% -9.3% -26.7% White mushrooms $44.5M 42.9% -1.2% -5.9% 8.9M 40.9% +1.3% -13.2% Brown mushrooms $6.3M 6.0% -5.7% -16.8% 0.5M 2.1% -2.2% -24.5% Specialty mushrooms Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks ending 1/28/2024 16

17. White button mushrooms dollar performance Dollars L-52 w.e. 1/28/2024 $650.7M -4.3% vs. YA White button mushroom, $ and % vs YA (fixed and random weight) 15.0% $250,000,000 10.0% $191M $173M$182M$168M$158M $175M $176M $200,000,000 $169M$158M $162M$151M$165.0M 5.0% 4.6% 0.0% $150,000,000 -3.0%-2.7% -2.0%-3.4%-3.6% -4.5%-5.8%-5.3% -5.2% -6.7% -5.0% $100,000,000 -6.3% $53.3M$53.0M -10.0% $50,000,000 -10.8% Average price/unit $2.68 +1.6% vs. YA -15.0% -16.4% -20.0% $0 4 WE 1/28/24 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Q2 22 Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 4 WE 12/31/23 Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 2021 plus 4 weeks ending 1/28/2024 17

18. White button mushrooms volume performance Pounds L-52 w.e. 1/28/2024 157.4M -6.0% vs YA White button mushroom, lbs and % vs YA (fixed and random weight) 15.0% 60,000,000 50.7M 10.0% 44.4M46.0M 45.1M 50,000,000 42.4M 42.9M39.7M36.6M39.4M 3.5% 41.4M 41.6M 5.0% 38.5M 40,000,000 0.0% -4.2% -4.8%-7.2% -7.0% 30,000,000 -7.5% -7.1% -5.0% -9.3% -9.6%-11.0%-9.8% -9.9% -12.2% 20,000,000 -10.0% 12.7M 12.4M -15.7% Average price/pound $4.13 +1.7% vs. YA -15.0% 10,000,000 -20.0% - Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Q2 22 Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 4 WE 1/28/24 4 WE 12/31/23 Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 2021 plus 4 weeks ending 1/28/2024 18

19. Crimini mushrooms dollar performance Dollars L-52 w.e. 1/28/2024 $425.6M +2.0% vs. YA Crimini mushroom, $ and % vs YA (fixed and random weight) 20.0% $140,000,000 15.6% $113M$116M 11.1% 15.0% $110M $109.3M $104M $97M 7.7% $120,000,000 $98.5M$108M$97M 7.7%6.4% $96.6M $95.8M 10.0% $100,000,000 $89.2M 1.4% 5.0% -0.6% -1.0%-3.0% -3.1% $80,000,000 -3.1% 0.0% -6.7%-5.8% $60,000,000 -5.0% $35.4M$36.7M $40,000,000 -10.0% Average price/unit $3.21 +0.8% vs. YA -9.1% -15.0% $20,000,000 -20.0% $0 Q3 22 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Q2 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 4 WE 1/28/24 4 WE 12/31/23 Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 2021 plus 4 weeks ending 1/28/2024 19

20. Crimini mushrooms volume performance Pounds L-52 w.e. 1/28/2024 87.7M +1.6% vs. YA Crimini mushroom, lbs and % vs YA (fixed and random weight) 15.4% 20.0% 30,000,000 25.3M 15.0% 22.8M23.6M 21.3M 21.9M23.5M 22.8M 22.0M 25,000,000 10.0% 20.2M19.9M 5.5% 19.8M 20.1M 2.3% 20,000,000 5.0% 1.3% 0.8% -0.7%-0.3%-1.3% -2.0% 0.0% 15,000,000 -8.5%-8.3%-8.9%-7.8%-8.3% -5.0% 7.3M 7.6M 10,000,000 -10.0% Average price/pound $4.85 +0.4% vs. YA 5,000,000 -15.0% -20.0% 0 4 WE 12/31/23 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 22 Q2 22 Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 4 WE 1/28/24 Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 2021 plus 4 weeks ending 1/28/2024 20

21. Other insights Packaged (fixed weight) versus random weight Package-size analysis Organic versus conventional Value-added versus whole/uncut 21

22. Package size analysis 8 and 16 ounces drive the bulk of sales, with 8-ounce packages outperforming 16-ounces in the latest four weeks Package size (per UPC) lbs vs. Dollars $ vs. YA $ vs. 2YA Pounds lbs vs. 2YA YA 8 OZ $55.3M -2.2% -6.8% 11.0M -3.3% -11.6% 16 OZ $18.8M -11.2% -10.9% 4.6M -16.0% -20.3% Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks ending 1/28/2024 22

23. Packaged (fixed weight) versus random weight While both down, fixed weight did better than random weight 4 W.E. 1/28/2024 | Share of total mushroom sales and sales growth % Fixed weight Random weight Dollar growth -3.6% -2.3% Share of mushroom $ sales 95.8% -5.3% 4.2% +0.2% Volume growth Share of mushroom lbs sales 96.1% 3.9% Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks ending 1/28/2024 23

24. Organic versus conventional mushrooms sales Organic mushrooms increased in dollar, unit and volume sales 4 w.e. 1/28/2024 | Share of total mushroom sales and sales growth % Unit growth -4.6% Volume growth -5.5% Market size $90.0M $ Conventional growth -3.1% Unit growth -5.9% Volume growth -1.8% Market size $13.8M $ Organic growth -6.8% 10.6% of pound sales Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks ending 1/28/2024 compared with year ago 24

25. Cut/prepared versus whole mushrooms No preparation (whole) had the better performance 4 w.e. 1/28/2024 | Share of total mushroom sales and sales growth % Unit growth -3.3% Volume growth -2.1% Market size $51.5M $ No preparation growth -2.1% Unit growth -6.2% Volume growth -8.3% Market size $52.4M $ Cut/Sliced growth -5.0% 46.9% of lbs sales Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh, MULO, 4 weeks ending 1/28/2024 compared with year ago 25