Understanding Decision-Making Process in Various Scenarios

 
UNIT IV
 
Decision Making
by:
Dr. Pravin Kumar Agrawal
Assistant Professor
CSJMU
 
Decision-Making
 
Decision-making is needed whenever an individual or an organization
(private or public) is faced with a situation of selecting an optimal (or best
in view of certain objectives) course of action from among several
available alternatives.
For example, an individual may have to decide whether to build a house or
to purchase a flat or live in a rented accommodation; whether to join a
service or to start own business; which company's car should be
purchased, etc. Similarly, a business firm may have to decide the type of
technique to be used in production, what is the most appropriate method
of advertising its product, etc.
The decision analysis provides certain criteria for the selection of a course
of action such that the objective of the decision-maker is satisfied. The
course of action selected on the basis of such criteria is termed as
the 
optimal course of action
.
 
Decision Alternatives
 
Every decision-maker is faced with a set of several
alternative courses of action A
1
, A
2
, ...... A
m
 and he
has to select one of them in view of the objectives to
be fulfilled.
 
States of Nature
 
These are the future conditions that are not under
the control of decision – maker.
       A state of nature can be the state of economy (e.g.
inflation), a weather condition etc. The state of
nature are 
usually not determined by the action of
an individual
 or an organization, These are the
results of an “
act of GOD”
 
Payoff
 
A numerical value (outcome) resulting from each possible
combination of alternatives and state of nature is called pay
The payoff values are always conditional values because of
unknown states of nature.
Measured within a specified period  (e.g. after one year). This
period is called as the decision horizon.
 
Payoff matrix
 
Steps of Decision Making Process
 
     Identify and 
define the Problem
.
     
List all possible future events, called state of nature
, which can
occur in the context of the decision problem. Such events are not
under the control of decision maker because they are erratic in
nature.
      Identify all the courses of action 
(alternatives or decision
choices) that are available to decision maker. The decision maker
has control over these courses of action.
      
Express the payoffs (pij) resulting from each pair of course of
action and state of nature
. These payoffs are normally expressed in
monetary value.
      
Apply an appropriate mathematical decision 
theory model to
select the best course of action from the given list on the basis of
some criterion (measure of effectiveness) that results in the optimal
(desired) payoff.
 
Types of Decision Making Environments
 
 
Decision Making under Certainty
 
In this case decision maker has the 
complete knowledge of
consequences of every decision choice 
(course of action or
alternative). Obviously, he will select an alternative that yields
the largest return (payoff) for the known future (state of
nature).
Eg: the decision to purchase  either NSC, KVP, FDs is one in
which it is reasonable to assume complete information about
the future because there is no doubt that the Indian
government will pay the interest when it is due and the
principal at maturity
 
Decision Making under Risk
 
   In this case the decision maker 
has less than complete
knowledge of the consequences of every decision choice
(course of action).
 This is because it is not definitely known
which outcome will occur. This means there is one state of
nature (future)  and for which he makes an assumption of the
probability with which each state of nature will occur. Eg
product demand high, low, medium.
 
Decision Making under Uncertainty
 
A decision problem, where a decision-maker is aware of
various possible states of nature but 
has insufficient
information to assign any probabilities of occurrence to them,
is termed as decision-making under uncertainty.
A situation of uncertainty arises when there can be more than
one possible consequences of selecting any course of action.
In terms of the payoff matrix, if the decision-maker selects A
1
,
his payoff can be X
11
, X
12
, X
13
, etc., depending upon which
state of nature S
1
, S
2
, S
3
, etc., is going to occur.
 
Most 
significant decisions made in today’s complex
environment are formulated under a state of uncertainty
.
Conditions of uncertainty exist when the future environment
is unpredictable. The 
decision-maker is not aware of all
available alternatives, the risks associated with each, and the
consequences of each alternative or their probabilities
.
The manager does not possess complete information about
the alternatives and whatever information is available, may
not be completely reliable. In the face of such uncertainty,
managers need to make certain assumptions about the
situation in order to provide a reasonable framework for
decision-making. 
They have to depend upon their judgment
and experience for making decisions.
 
Decision making under Uncertainty
 
i.
Optimism (Maximax or Minimin) criterion 
(2018-19)
ii.
Pessimism (Maximin or Minimax) criterion 
(2018-19)
iii.
Equal Probabilities (Laplace) criterion
iv.
Coefficeint of optimism (Hurwicz) criterion
v.
Regret (Salvage) criterion
 
Optimism (Maximax or Minimin) Criterion
 
In this criterion the decision–maker ensures that he/she
should not miss the opportunity to achieve the largest
possible profit (maximax) or the lowest possible cost
(minimin). 
Thus he selects the alternative (decision choice or
course of action) that represents 
the maximum of the maxima
(or minimum of the minima) payoffs
 . The working method is
as follows:
(a)
Locate the maximum (or minimum) payoffs values
corresponding to each alternatives (or course of action).
(b)
Select an alternative with best anticipated payoff value
(maximum for profit and minimum for cost).
 
Pessimism (Maximin or Minimax) Criterion
 
In this criterion the 
decision–maker ensures that he/she
would earn no less (or pay no more) than some specified
amount
. Thus 
he/she selects the alternative that represents
the maximum of the minima (or minimum of the maxima in
case of  loss) payoffs in case of profits
.  The working method is
as follows:
(a)
Locate the minimum (or maximum in case of profit) payoff
value in case of loss (or cost) data corresponding to each
alternatives.
(b)
Select an alternative with the best anticipated payoff value
(maximum for profit and minimum for cost).
 
Pessimism (Maximin or Minimax) Criterion
 
 Since in this criterion the decision-maker is conservative about
the future and always anticipates the worst possible outcome
(minimum for profit and maximum for cost or loss), it is called
a pessimistic decision criterion. This is also known as Wald’s
Criterion.
 
Equal Probabilities (Laplace) Criterion
 
This criterion is based on, what is known as the 
principle of insufficient
reason
. Since the probabilities associated with the occurrence of various
events are unknown, there is not enough information to conclude that
these probabilities will be different 
(this is because except in few cases,
some information of the likelihood of occurences of states of nature is
available).
 Hence it is 
assumed that all states of nature will occur with
equal probability.
 That is, each state of nature is assigned an equal
probability. As states of nature of mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive, the probability of each 
of these must be 1/(number of states
of nature)
This criterion involves following steps
Step I Assign equal probabilities 1/(number of states of nature) to each
pay off a strategy.
Step II Determine the expected pay off value for each alternative
Step III Select that alternative which corresponds to the maximum (and
minimum for cost) of the above expected pay offs.
 
Coefficient of Optimism (Hurwicz) Criterion
 
This criterion suggests that a rational 
decision maker should
neither be completely optimistic nor be pessimistic and
therefore, must display a mixture of both
. Hurwicz, who
suggests this criterion, introduced the idea of a coefficient of
optimism (denoted by α) to measure the decision maker’s
degree of optimism. This coefficient lies between 0 and 1,
where 0 represents a completely pessimistic attitude about
the future and 1,
 completely optimistic attitude about the
future. Thus, 
if it is the coefficient of optimism, then (1- α )
will represent the coefficient of pessimism. 
The working
procedure is –
 
Hurwicz Formula
 
H (Criterion of Realism)  =  
 (Maximum in Column) + (1- 
) (Minimum in column)
 
The hurwicz approach suggest that the decision maker must select an alternative that
 maximizes
 
Coefficient of Optimism (Hurwicz) Criterion
 
Select an alternative with value of H as maximum.
For α=1, the Hurwitz criteria is equal to the maximin or
minimax criteria.
For α = 0, it is equal to maximax or minimin criteria.
A difficulty with this criteria is the appropriate selection of α
between 0 and 1
 
Regret (Salvage) Criterion
 
While the above criterions do not take into account the cost
of opportunity loses by making the wrong decision, the
Savage criterion does so. The 
savage criterion is based on the
concept of regret (or opportunity loss) and calls for selecting
the course of action that minimizes the maximum regret
. 
This
criterion is assume that decision maker feels regret after
adopting a wrong course of action (alternative) resulting in an
opportunity loss of pay off.
 The working method is as follows:
 
Regret (Salvage) Criterion
 
    Step I From the given pay off matrix, develop an opportunity
loss (or regret) matrix as follows
(a) Find the best pay off corresponding to each state of
nature.
(b) Subtract all other entries  (payoff values) in that row from
this value.
Step II: For each course of action (Strategy or alternative) identify
the worst or maximum regret value. Record this number in a
new row.
Step III: Select the course of action (alternative) with the smallest
anticipated opportunity – loss value
 
Numerical
 
A food Product company is contemplating the introduction of
a revolutionary new product with new packaging or replacing
the existing product at much higher price (S1). It may even
make a moderate change in the composition of existing
product, with a new packaging at a small increase in price
(S2), or may a small change in the composition of the existing
product, backing it with the word new and the negligible
increase in price (S3). The three possible state of Nature or
events are:
(i) High increase in Sale N1
(ii) No Change in Sale N2
(iii) decrese in Sale N3.
 
   The marketing department of the company
worked out the payoffs in terms of yearly net
profits for each of the strategies of three events
(expected sales). This is represented in the
following table:
 
Which Strategy Should be concerned executive choose on the basis of:
 
1.
Maximin Criterion
2.
Maximax Criterion
3.
Minimax Regret Criterion
4.
Laplace Criterion
 
Numerical
 
Which Strategy Should be concerned executive choose on the basis of:
 
1.
Maximin Criterion
2.
Maximax Criterion
3.
Minimax Regret Criterion
4.
Laplace Criterion
 
(
a) Maximin Criterian
 
The maximum of column minima is 3,00,000 . Hence the company should adopt
Strategy S3
 
(
a) Maximax Criterian
 
The maximum of column maxima is 7,00,000 . Hence the company should adopt
Strategy S1.
 
Minimax Regret Criterion
 
Minimax Regret Criterion
 
 Hence the company should adopt minimum opportunity loss Strategy S1.
 
Minimax Regret
 
Laplace Criterion
 
Since we do not know the probabilities of State of nature,
assume that they are equal. In this example we assume that
each state of nature has a probability of 1/3 occurrence. Thus
 
Minimax Regret Criterion
 
Minimax Regret Criterion
 
Since the largest expected return is from strategy S1,
the executive must select strategy S1.
 
Decision Making Under Risk
 
A probabilistic 
decision situation in which more than one state
of nature exists and the decision maker has sufficient
information to assign probability values to the likely
occurrences of each of these states
.
The best decision is to select that course of action which has
the 
largest expected pay off value
.
The expected  (average) 
payoff of an alternative is sum of all
possible payoffs of that alternative, weighted by the
probabilities of the occurrence of those payoffs
.
The most widely used criterion for evaluating various course
of action (alternatives) under risk is the 
Expected Monetary
Value (EMV).
 
Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
(2018-19)
 
The expected monetary value (EMV) for a given course of action is the
weighted sum of possible payoffs for each alternative. The expected (or
mean) value is the long run average value that would result of the decision
were repeated a large no. of times. Mathematically EMV is stated as
follows:
 
EMV = 
Ʃ p
ij
p
j
 
Where,
 m = no. of possible state of nature
pi = Probability of occurrence of state of nature, Ni
pij =  payoff associated with state of nature Ni and course of
action Sj.
 
Expected Monetary Value
Example I
 
You are managing a software development
project and identified a risk related to market
demand. The possibility of risk is 20% and if it
occurs you will lose Rs. 10,000. Now we will
calculate the EMV of this risk.
 
Example I
 
Probability of occurrence: 20%
Impact of risk : Rs. – 10,000
EMV = 0.2 x -10,000 = Rs. – 2,000
 
Expected Monetary Value Example II
 
You are managing an IT project and identified a risk related to
customer’s demand. However, you also identified an
opportunity which increases the sales price. The possibility of
risk is 10% and if it occurs you will lose 50,000 USD, on the
other hand, the possibility of opportunity is 15% and if it
occurs you gain 30,000 USD. Now we will calculate the EMV of
this situation.
 
 
I Case
Probability of occurrence : 10%
Impact of risk : – 50,000 USD
EMV = 0.1 x -50,000 = – 5,000 USD
II Case
Probability of occurrence: 15%
Impact of risk : 30,000 USD
EMV = 0.15 x 30,000 = 4,500 USD
The Expected Monetary Value of this situation is – 5,000 USD
+ 4,500 USD = 500 USD
 
Suppose you are a project manager of a pipeline project and
your project have some risks that may cause delay and cost
overruns.
Project Risk 1: 
There is a 25% possibility of heavy rain. This will
cause a delay in the project for 3 weeks and cost Rs. 100,000.
Project Risk 2: 
There is a 15% percent probability of the price
of rental equipment increasing, which will cost Rs. 200,000.
Project Risk 3: 
There is a 10% percent probability of the price
of labor increases, which will cost Rs. 90,000.
Project Risk 4: 
There is a 30% possibility of increasing the
productivity of excavators due to the ground conditions. This
will enable to complete the project 2 weeks before and save
Rs. 50,000.
 
 
 
Now Let’s calculate the EMV of the project
 
In this scenario, the project manager should add Rs. 49,000 to the project budget to
manage those risks.
 
Benefits of Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Analysis
 
Enables to calculate contingency reserve.
Improves statistical thinking
Improves decision making
This technique gives realistic results when there is a large
number of risks in the project.
Helps to select the risk management alternative which
requires less cost.
This technique does not require additional cost, it only
requires an expert to make risk calculations.
It can be used in conjunction with 
decision tree analysis.
 
Limitations of Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Analysis
 
Although the EMV is a useful technique to perform a
quantitative risk analysis, it has some limitations.
 
If the positive and negative risks are not identified
properly, the result would be misleading.
 
The impact of risk calculation as a monetary value
may be difficult in some cases.
 
Expected Opportunity Loss
 
One more way of maximizing monitory value is to minimize
the expected opportunity loss or expected value of regret.
The conditional EOL or regret function for a particular course
of action is determined by taking the 
difference between
payoff value of the most favorable course of action i.e.
maximum pay off and pay off for each Course of action for a
given state of nature.
 The course of action for which EOL is
minimum is recommended.
 
EOL = Ʃ lij pi
lij = opportunity loss due to state of nature Ni and Course of Action Sj
Pi = Probability of occurrences of state of nature, Ni
 
 
https://www.coursehero.com/file/p2losa4/De
cision-Making-under-Risk-Expected-
Opportunity-Loss-EOL-Another-useful-way-of/
 
Expected Value of Perfect Information(EVPI)
 
EVPI is the maximum amount which the decision
maker can spend to obtain the perfect information
on which to base a given decision is called expected
value of perfect information
.
 
EVPI = Expected Profit with perfect information[EPPI]
 
             –   Expected Monetary value
 
Expected Value of Perfect Information(EVPI)
 
    THE EVPI indicates the expected or the average return in
the long run, of the best possible decision, If we have the
perfect information before a decision is made .
      
 
In order to 
maximize his profits or minimized his losses
the decision maker would be interested in basing his
decisions on a perfect predictor.
    In order to look out for perfect predictor, The decision
maker will be interested together in some additional
information about the different state of nature. This would
involve some expenditure in the form of the cost of
conducting some experiments or survey to obtain the
perfect information. This perfect information will reduce
the opportunity losses due to uncertainty to zero.
 
Expected Value of Perfect Information(EVPI)
 
     By perfect information we mean complete and
accurate information about the various states of
nature in the future.
     If the businessman, say, the retailer, knows in
advance about the exact demand for his 
daily/
weekly/monthly/ 
product, he will store the exact no .
of goods as per demand and consequently will not
incur any loses on the unsold stock.
    The expected value of perfect information is the
difference between the expected profit with perfect
information and without perfect information.
 
Pay off Table
 
Solution
 
EMV  (Bonds) = 40 (0.2) + 45 (0.5) + 5 (0.3) = 32
 
Decision = Invest in Bonds
 
 
EVPI = EVwPI - EVwoPI
 
Expected Value without perfect Information =
EMV
 
Expected Value with perfect Information
 
EVwPI =  70 (0.2) + 45 (0.5)   + 5 (0.3) =  =  38
 
So EVPI = 38-32 = 6
 
Pay Off Cost Table
 
Decision Choose d1
 
 
EVPI = EVwPI - EVwoPI
 
Expected Value without perfect Information =
EMV
 
Expected Value on perfect Information
 
EVwPI =  5 (0.3) +  9 (0.5)   + 8 (0.2) =  =  7.6
 
So EVPI = 7.6 -10.7  = -3.1 = 3.1
 
Decision Tree
 
 
Definition
 
A decision tree analysis involves the
construction of a diagram that shows, at a
glance, when decision are expected to be
made – in what sequence, their possible
consequences and what are the resultant
payoff. The result of the computations can be
shown directly on the trees.
 
Decision Tree
 
A decision tree is made of nodes, branches,
probability estimates and payoffs. There are
two types of nodes:
Decision nodes
Chance Nodes
 
Decision nodes
 
It is represented by a square  and represent
places where a decision maker must make a
decision. Each branch leading away from the
node indicates one of the several possible
courses of action available to the decision
maker.
 
Chance Node
 
The Chance node is indicated by a circle and
represents a point at which the decision
maker will discover the different possible
outcomes (state of nature, competitor action
etc.).
 
A branch leading away from a chance node
represents the state of nature of a set of
chance events.
 
Decision Tree
 
Decision Tree depicts decision making
under risk, the assumed probabilities of
the states of nature are written alongside
their respective chance branch.
 
Decision Tree
 
The payoff can be positive  (revenue
or sales) or negative (expenditure or
cost) and it can be associated either
with decision or chance branches.
 
Decision Tree Analysis
 
The optimal sequence of decision in a tree is found
by starting at the right hand side and rolling
backwards. The aim of this operation is to maximize
the return from the decision situation. At each node
an expected return is calculated  (called positional
value. ).
If the node is a chance node, then the position value
is calculated as the sum of the products of the
probabilities or the branches emanating from the
chance node and their respective position values.
 
Decision Tree Analysis…
 
If the node is decision node, then the
expected return is calculated for each of its
branches and the highest return is selected.
The procedure continues until the initial node
is reached.
The positional values for this node correspond
to the maximum expected return obtained
from the decision sequence.
 
References
 
Operation Research by J K Sharma
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Decision-making is crucial for individuals and organizations when selecting the best course of action among available options. This process involves considering decision alternatives, states of nature, payoffs, and using mathematical models to optimize outcomes. By identifying and defining the problem, listing possible events, determining courses of action, and evaluating payoffs, decision-makers can make informed choices to achieve desired results.


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  1. UNIT IV Decision Making by: Dr. Pravin Kumar Agrawal Assistant Professor CSJMU

  2. Decision-Making Decision-making is needed whenever an individual or an organization (private or public) is faced with a situation of selecting an optimal (or best in view of certain objectives) course of action from among several available alternatives. For example, an individual may have to decide whether to build a house or to purchase a flat or live in a rented accommodation; whether to join a service or to start own business; which company's car should be purchased, etc. Similarly, a business firm may have to decide the type of technique to be used in production, what is the most appropriate method of advertising its product, etc. The decision analysis provides certain criteria for the selection of a course of action such that the objective of the decision-maker is satisfied. The course of action selected on the basis of such criteria is termed as the optimal course of action.

  3. Decision Alternatives Every decision-maker is faced with a set of several alternative courses of action A1, A2, ...... Amand he has to select one of them in view of the objectives to be fulfilled.

  4. States of Nature These are the future conditions that are not under the control of decision maker. A state of nature can be the state of economy (e.g. inflation), a weather condition etc. The state of nature are usually not determined by the action of an individual or an organization, These are the results of an act of GOD

  5. Payoff A numerical value (outcome) resulting from each possible combination of alternatives and state of nature is called pay The payoff values are always conditional values because of unknown states of nature. Measured within a specified period (e.g. after one year). This period is called as the decision horizon.

  6. Payoff matrix State of Nature Probability Course of Action (Alternatives) S1 p11 S2 p12 Sn N1 P1 p1n N1 . P2 P21 P22 P2n . . . Nm Pn Pm1 Pm2 Pmn

  7. Steps of Decision Making Process Identify and define the Problem. List all possible future events, called state of nature, which can occur in the context of the decision problem. Such events are not under the control of decision maker because they are erratic in nature. Identify all the courses of action (alternatives or decision choices) that are available to decision maker. The decision maker has control over these courses of action. Express the payoffs (pij) resulting from each pair of course of action and state of nature. These payoffs are normally expressed in monetary value. Apply an appropriate mathematical decision theory model to select the best course of action from the given list on the basis of some criterion (measure of effectiveness) that results in the optimal (desired) payoff.

  8. Types of Decision Making Environments

  9. Decision Making under Certainty In this case decision maker has the complete knowledge of consequences of every decision choice (course of action or alternative). Obviously, he will select an alternative that yields the largest return (payoff) for the known future (state of nature). Eg: the decision to purchase either NSC, KVP, FDs is one in which it is reasonable to assume complete information about the future because there is no doubt that the Indian government will pay the interest when it is due and the principal at maturity

  10. Decision Making under Risk In this case the decision maker has less than complete knowledge of the consequences of every decision choice (course of action). This is because it is not definitely known which outcome will occur. This means there is one state of nature (future) and for which he makes an assumption of the probability with which each state of nature will occur. Eg product demand high, low, medium.

  11. Decision Making under Uncertainty A decision problem, where a decision-maker is aware of various possible states of nature but has insufficient information to assign any probabilities of occurrence to them, is termed as decision-making under uncertainty. A situation of uncertainty arises when there can be more than one possible consequences of selecting any course of action. In terms of the payoff matrix, if the decision-maker selects A1, his payoff can be X11, X12, X13, etc., depending upon which state of nature S1, S2, S3, etc., is going to occur.

  12. Most environment are formulated under a state of uncertainty. Conditions of uncertainty exist when the future environment is unpredictable. The decision-maker is not aware of all available alternatives, the risks associated with each, and the consequences of each alternative or their probabilities. The manager does not possess complete information about the alternatives and whatever information is available, may not be completely reliable. In the face of such uncertainty, managers need to make certain assumptions about the situation in order to provide a reasonable framework for decision-making. They have to depend upon their judgment and experience for making decisions. significant decisions made in today s complex

  13. Decision making under Uncertainty Optimism (Maximax or Minimin) criterion (2018-19) i. Pessimism (Maximin or Minimax) criterion (2018-19) iii. Equal Probabilities (Laplace) criterion iv. Coefficeint of optimism (Hurwicz) criterion v. Regret (Salvage) criterion ii.

  14. Optimism (Maximax or Minimin) Criterion In this criterion the decision maker ensures that he/she should not miss the opportunity to achieve the largest possible profit (maximax) or the lowest possible cost (minimin). Thus he selects the alternative (decision choice or course of action) that represents the maximum of the maxima (or minimum of the minima) payoffs . The working method is as follows: (a) Locate the maximum (or corresponding to each alternatives (or course of action). (b) Select an alternative with best anticipated payoff value (maximum for profit and minimum for cost). minimum) payoffs values

  15. Pessimism (Maximin or Minimax) Criterion In this criterion the decision maker ensures that he/she would earn no less (or pay no more) than some specified amount. Thus he/she selects the alternative that represents the maximum of the minima (or minimum of the maxima in case of loss) payoffs in case of profits. The working method is as follows: (a) Locate the minimum (or maximum in case of profit) payoff value in case of loss (or cost) data corresponding to each alternatives. (b) Select an alternative with the best anticipated payoff value (maximum for profit and minimum for cost).

  16. Pessimism (Maximin or Minimax) Criterion Since in this criterion the decision-maker is conservative about the future and always anticipates the worst possible outcome (minimum for profit and maximum for cost or loss), it is called a pessimistic decision criterion. This is also known as Wald s Criterion.

  17. Equal Probabilities (Laplace) Criterion This criterion is based on, what is known as the principle of insufficient reason. Since the probabilities associated with the occurrence of various events are unknown, there is not enough information to conclude that these probabilities will be different (this is because except in few cases, some information of the likelihood of occurences of states of nature is available). Hence it is assumed that all states of nature will occur with equal probability. That is, each state of nature is assigned an equal probability. As states of nature of mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, the probability of each of these must be 1/(number of states of nature) This criterion involves following steps Step I Assign equal probabilities 1/(number of states of nature) to each pay off a strategy. Step II Determine the expected pay off value for each alternative Step III Select that alternative which corresponds to the maximum (and minimum for cost) of the above expected pay offs.

  18. Coefficient of Optimism (Hurwicz) Criterion This criterion suggests that a rational decision maker should neither be completely optimistic nor be pessimistic and therefore, must display a mixture of both. Hurwicz, who suggests this criterion, introduced the idea of a coefficient of optimism (denoted by ) to measure the decision maker s degree of optimism. This coefficient lies between 0 and 1, where 0 represents a completely pessimistic attitude about the future and 1, completely optimistic attitude about the future. Thus, if it is the coefficient of optimism, then (1- ) will represent the coefficient of pessimism. The working procedure is

  19. Hurwicz Formula The hurwicz approach suggest that the decision maker must select an alternative that maximizes H (Criterion of Realism) = (Maximum in Column) + (1- ) (Minimum in column)

  20. Coefficient of Optimism (Hurwicz) Criterion Select an alternative with value of H as maximum. For =1, the Hurwitz criteria is equal to the maximin or minimax criteria. For = 0, it is equal to maximax or minimin criteria. A difficulty with this criteria is the appropriate selection of between 0 and 1

  21. Regret (Salvage) Criterion While the above criterions do not take into account the cost of opportunity loses by making the wrong decision, the Savage criterion does so. The savage criterion is based on the concept of regret (or opportunity loss) and calls for selecting the course of action that minimizes the maximum regret. This criterion is assume that decision maker feels regret after adopting a wrong course of action (alternative) resulting in an opportunity loss of pay off. The working method is as follows:

  22. Regret (Salvage) Criterion Step I From the given pay off matrix, develop an opportunity loss (or regret) matrix as follows (a) Find the best pay off corresponding to each state of nature. (b) Subtract all other entries (payoff values) in that row from this value. Step II: For each course of action (Strategy or alternative) identify the worst or maximum regret value. Record this number in a new row. Step III: Select the course of action (alternative) with the smallest anticipated opportunity loss value

  23. Numerical A food Product company is contemplating the introduction of a revolutionary new product with new packaging or replacing the existing product at much higher price (S1). It may even make a moderate change in the composition of existing product, with a new packaging at a small increase in price (S2), or may a small change in the composition of the existing product, backing it with the word new and the negligible increase in price (S3). The three possible state of Nature or events are: (i) High increase in Sale N1 (ii) No Change in Sale N2 (iii) decrese in Sale N3.

  24. The marketing department of the company worked out the payoffs in terms of yearly net profits for each of the strategies of three events (expected sales). This is represented in the following table:

  25. States of Nature Strategies N1 N2 N3 S1 7,00,000 3,00,000 1,50,000 S2 5,00,000 4,50,000 0 S3 3,00,000 3,00,000 3,00,000 Which Strategy Should be concerned executive choose on the basis of: 1. Maximin Criterion 2. Maximax Criterion 3. Minimax Regret Criterion 4. Laplace Criterion

  26. Numerical Strategies States of Nature S1 S2 S3 N1 7,00,000 5,00,000 3, 00,000 N2 3,00,000 4,50,000 3,00,000 N3 1,50,000 0 3,00,000 Which Strategy Should be concerned executive choose on the basis of: 1. Maximin Criterion 2. Maximax Criterion 3. Minimax Regret Criterion 4. Laplace Criterion

  27. (a) Maximin Criterian Strategies States of Nature S1 S2 S3 N1 7,00,000 5,00,000 3, 00,000 N2 3,00,000 4,50,000 3,00,000 N3 1,50,000 0 3,00,000 Coloumn (Minimum) 1,50,000 0 3,00,000 The maximum of column minima is 3,00,000 . Hence the company should adopt Strategy S3

  28. (a) Maximax Criterian Strategies States of Nature S1 S2 S3 N1 7,00,000 5,00,000 3, 00,000 N2 3,00,000 4,50,000 3,00,000 N3 1,50,000 0 3,00,000 Coloumn (Maximum) 0 3,00,000 7,00,000 The maximum of column maxima is 7,00,000 . Hence the company should adopt Strategy S1.

  29. Minimax Regret Criterion States of Nature Strategies S1 S2 S3 N1 7,00,000 5,00,000 3, 00,000 N2 3,00,000 4,50,000 3,00,000 N3 1,50,000 0 3,00,000

  30. Minimax Regret Criterion Strategies States of Nature S1 S2 S3 N1 7,00,000 - 7,00,000 = 0 7,00,000 - 5,00,000 = 2,00,000 7,00,000 - 3, 00,000 = 4,00,000 N2 4,50,000 - 3,00,000 = 1,50,000 4,50,000- 4,50,000 =0 4,50,000 - 3,00,000 =1,50,000 N3 3,00,000 - 1,50,000 = 1,50,000 1,50,000 () 3,00,000 0 = 3,00,000 3,00,000 - 3,00,000 = 0 Coloumn (Maximum) 3,00,000 4,00,000 Minimax Regret Hence the company should adopt minimum opportunity loss Strategy S1.

  31. Laplace Criterion Since we do not know the probabilities of State of nature, assume that they are equal. In this example we assume that each state of nature has a probability of 1/3 occurrence. Thus

  32. Minimax Regret Criterion Strategies States of Nature S1 S2 S3 N1 7,00,000 5,00,000 3, 00,000 N2 3,00,000 4,50,000 3,00,000 N3 1,50,000 0 3,00,000

  33. Minimax Regret Criterion Strategy Expected Return (Rs. ) S1 (7,00,000 + 3,00,000 + 1,50,000)/3 = 3,83,333.33 S2 (5,00,000 + 4,50,000 + 0)/3 = 3,16,666.66 S3 (3,00,000+3,00,000+3,00,000)/3 = 3,00,000 Since the largest expected return is from strategy S1, the executive must select strategy S1.

  34. Decision Making Under Risk A probabilistic decision situation in which more than one state of nature exists and the decision maker has sufficient information to assign probability values to the likely occurrences of each of these states. The best decision is to select that course of action which has the largest expected pay off value. The expected (average) payoff of an alternative is sum of all possible payoffs of that alternative, weighted by the probabilities of the occurrence of those payoffs. The most widely used criterion for evaluating various course of action (alternatives) under risk is the Expected Monetary Value (EMV).

  35. Expected Monetary Value (EMV) (2018-19) The expected monetary value (EMV) for a given course of action is the weighted sum of possible payoffs for each alternative. The expected (or mean) value is the long run average value that would result of the decision were repeated a large no. of times. Mathematically EMV is stated as follows: EMV = pijpj Where, m = no. of possible state of nature pi = Probability of occurrence of state of nature, Ni pij = payoff associated with state of nature Ni and course of action Sj.

  36. Expected Monetary Value Example I You are managing a software development project and identified a risk related to market demand. The possibility of risk is 20% and if it occurs you will lose Rs. 10,000. Now we will calculate the EMV of this risk.

  37. Example I Probability of occurrence: 20% Impact of risk : Rs. 10,000 EMV = 0.2 x -10,000 = Rs. 2,000

  38. Expected Monetary Value Example II You are managing an IT project and identified a risk related to customer s demand. However, you also identified an opportunity which increases the sales price. The possibility of risk is 10% and if it occurs you will lose 50,000 USD, on the other hand, the possibility of opportunity is 15% and if it occurs you gain 30,000 USD. Now we will calculate the EMV of this situation.

  39. I Case Probability of occurrence : 10% Impact of risk : 50,000 USD EMV = 0.1 x -50,000 = 5,000 USD II Case Probability of occurrence: 15% Impact of risk : 30,000 USD EMV = 0.15 x 30,000 = 4,500 USD The Expected Monetary Value of this situation is 5,000 USD + 4,500 USD = 500 USD

  40. Suppose you are a project manager of a pipeline project and your project have some risks that may cause delay and cost overruns. Project Risk 1: There is a 25% possibility of heavy rain. This will cause a delay in the project for 3 weeks and cost Rs. 100,000. Project Risk 2: There is a 15% percent probability of the price of rental equipment increasing, which will cost Rs. 200,000. Project Risk 3: There is a 10% percent probability of the price of labor increases, which will cost Rs. 90,000. Project Risk 4: There is a 30% possibility of increasing the productivity of excavators due to the ground conditions. This will enable to complete the project 2 weeks before and save Rs. 50,000.

  41. Now Lets calculate the EMV of the project Risk Probability Impact (Rs.) EMV = Probability X Impact (Rs.) 1 25% -1,00,000 -25,000 2 15% -2,00,000 -30,000 3 10% -90,000 -9,000 4 30% 50,000 15,000 EMV of the Project -49000 In this scenario, the project manager should add Rs. 49,000 to the project budget to manage those risks.

  42. Benefits of Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Analysis Enables to calculate contingency reserve. Improves statistical thinking Improves decision making This technique gives realistic results when there is a large number of risks in the project. Helps to select the risk management alternative which requires less cost. This technique does not require additional cost, it only requires an expert to make risk calculations. It can be used in conjunction with decision tree analysis.

  43. Limitations of Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Analysis Although the EMV is a useful technique to perform a quantitative risk analysis, it has some limitations. If the positive and negative risks are not identified properly, the result would be misleading. The impact of risk calculation as a monetary value may be difficult in some cases.

  44. Expected Opportunity Loss One more way of maximizing monitory value is to minimize the expected opportunity loss or expected value of regret. The conditional EOL or regret function for a particular course of action is determined by taking the difference between payoff value of the most favorable course of action i.e. maximum pay off and pay off for each Course of action for a given state of nature. The course of action for which EOL is minimum is recommended. EOL = lij pi lij = opportunity loss due to state of nature Ni and Course of Action Sj Pi = Probability of occurrences of state of nature, Ni

  45. https://www.coursehero.com/file/p2losa4/De cision-Making-under-Risk-Expected- Opportunity-Loss-EOL-Another-useful-way-of/

  46. Expected Value of Perfect Information(EVPI) EVPI is the maximum amount which the decision maker can spend to obtain the perfect information on which to base a given decision is called expected value of perfect information. EVPI = Expected Profit with perfect information[EPPI] Expected Monetary value

  47. Expected Value of Perfect Information(EVPI) THE EVPI indicates the expected or the average return in the long run, of the best possible decision, If we have the perfect information before a decision is made . In order to maximize his profits or minimized his losses the decision maker would be interested in basing his decisions on a perfect predictor. In order to look out for perfect predictor, The decision maker will be interested together in some additional information about the different state of nature. This would involve some expenditure in the form of the cost of conducting some experiments or survey to obtain the perfect information. This perfect information will reduce the opportunity losses due to uncertainty to zero.

  48. Expected Value of Perfect Information(EVPI) By perfect information we mean complete and accurate information about the various states of nature in the future. If the businessman, say, the retailer, knows in advance about the exact demand for his daily/ weekly/monthly/ product, he will store the exact no . of goods as per demand and consequently will not incur any loses on the unsold stock. The expected value of perfect information is the difference between the expected profit with perfect information and without perfect information.

  49. Pay off Table State of Nature Growing Stable Declining Alternatives Bonds 40 45 5 Stocks 70 30 -13 Mutual Funds 53 45 -5 Probability 0.2 0.5 0.3

  50. Solution Alternatives Growing Stable Declining EMV Bonds 40 45 5 32 Stocks 70 30 -13 25.1 Mutual Funds 53 45 -5 31.6 Probability 0.2 0.5 0.3 EMV (Bonds) = 40 (0.2) + 45 (0.5) + 5 (0.3) = 32 Decision = Invest in Bonds

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