Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Attributes for Energy Commission Forecasting
This project aims to update historic and forecast attributes of medium and heavy-duty vehicles to support Energy Commission transportation energy demand forecasting efforts. Tasks include reviewing forecast attributes, updating vehicle technology forecasts, and forecasting ZEV and low-NOx fueling/charging infrastructure costs. The focus is on fuel economy, vehicle prices, and analyzing alternative fuel vehicle prices. Discussions with OEMs and reviewing technology implementation years are essential for this initiative.
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Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Attributes Jeff Rosenfeld Director, Transportation & Energy July 15, 2021
Purpose: Support Energy Commission transportation energy demand forecasting efforts by updating Purpose: Support Energy Commission transportation energy demand forecasting efforts by updating historic and forecast attributes of medium historic and forecast attributes of medium- - and heavy and heavy- -duty vehicles duty vehicles Subtask 1. Administration Subtask 2. Review of 2019 Forecast Attributes and Matrix of Available Fuel Types Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes Subtask 4. Vehicle Technology Forecast Subtask 5. Forecast ZEV and Low-NOx Fueling/Charging Infrastructure Costs Subtask 6. Forecast Vehicle Attributes Subtask 7. Training Energy Commission Staff Task overview Task overview 2
Focus for Today Focus for Today Fuel Economy Vehicle Prices Data Source Data Source DMV/Price Digest top models by category AFLEET model (Argonne) ICF/CalETC research data sources HD Systems vehicle costs and cost multipliers HVIP Delivered Prices Goal for Today Goal for Today Please provide comments on the alternative fuel vehicle prices Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes 3
Initial review of previous CEC matrix of technologies and implementation years Literature review and public announcements of the current status of technologies Conversations with MD/HD OEMs about technology status Diesel-Electric Hybrid natural gas Truck Class 2018 electric gasoline hydrogen NG_LNG propane diesel hybrid PHEV GVWR3 Null 2016 1995 Null Null Null 2000 1995 2020 Null GVWR4and5 2010 2016 1995 Null Null 2000 2000 1995 2020 Null GVWR6 2010 2016 1995 2027 Null 2000 2000 1995 Null Null GVWR7 2010 2024 Null Null Null 2003 Null 1995 Null Null GVWR8_SU Null 2024 Null Null 2005 2000 Null 1995 Null 2025 GVWR8 COMBO Null 2021 Null 2022 2007 2007 Null 1995 Null 2025 GVWR8 IRP Null Null Null Null Null 2000 Null 1995 Null Null GVWR8 REFUSE AND RECYCLING 2020 2023 Null Null 2010 2000 Null 1995 Null Null Review Subtask 2. Review of 2019 Forecast Attributes and Matrix Review Subtask 2. Review of 2019 Forecast Attributes and Matrix of Available Fuel Types of Available Fuel Types 4
Presentation will focus on three vehicle segments Presentation will focus on three vehicle segments Class 3, 6, and 8 Combo Class 3, 6, and 8 Combo Diesel-Electric Hybrid Null 2010 2010 2010 Null Null Null 2020 natural gas Null 2000 2000 2003 2000 2007 2000 2000 Truck Class GVWR3 GVWR4and5 GVWR6 GVWR7 GVWR8_SU GVWR8 COMBO GVWR8 IRP GVWR8 REFUSE AND RECYCLING electric 2016 2016 2016 2024 2024 2021 Null 2023 gasoline 1995 1995 1995 Null Null Null Null Null hydrogen Null Null 2027 Null Null 2022 Null Null NG_LNG Null Null Null Null 2005 2007 Null 2010 propane 2000 2000 2000 Null Null Null Null Null diesel 1995 1995 1995 1995 1995 1995 1995 1995 hybrid 2020 2020 Null Null Null Null Null Null PHEV Null Null Null Null 2025 2025 Null Null Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes 5
Class 3 EERs in 2019 Class 3 EERs in 2019 Fuel Type Fuel Type Source Source Gasoline Gasoline Diesel Diesel Electric Electric Hybrid Hybrid Propane Propane EMFAC 1.00 1.337 4.407 HD Systems 1.00 1.237 4.525 1.320 1.001 ANL GREET 1.00 1.343 4.479 1.400 1.000 EER = Energy Economy Ratio Gasoline Baseline Red value used in analysis Please Provide Comments Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes 6
Class 6 EERs in 2019 Class 6 EERs in 2019 Fuel Type Fuel Type Source Source Diesel Diesel- - Electric Electric Hydrogen Hydrogen FC FC Gasoline Gasoline Diesel Diesel Electric Electric Natural Gas Natural Gas Propane Propane EMFAC 1.00 1.279 4.129 1.075 HD Systems 1.00 1.279 1.535 4.685 1.087 ANL GREET 1.00 1.312 1.837 4.877 1.115 1.000 2.683 EER = Energy Economy Ratio Gasoline Baseline Red value used in analysis Please Provide Comments Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes 7
Class 8 Combo EERs in 2019 Class 8 Combo EERs in 2019 Fuel Type Fuel Type Source Source Hydrogen Hydrogen FC FC Diesel Diesel Electric Electric Natural Gas Natural Gas PHEV PHEV EMFAC 1.000 2.501 0.873 HD Systems 1.000 1.834 0.841 0.950 ANL GREET 1.000 1.666 1.363 0.900 1.371 EER = Energy Economy Ratio Diesel Baseline Red value used in analysis Please Provide Comments Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes 8
Class 3 in 2019 Class 3 in 2019 Price Price (MY 2021) (MY 2021) DMV/Price DMV/Price Digest Digest Fuel Type Fuel Type ICF/CALETC ICF/CALETC AFLEET AFLEET HD System HD System Gasoline $36,330 $36,330 $42,000 $45,250 Diesel $47,305 $47,305 $53,000 $53,650 Propane $50,000 $56,250 BEV $93,000 $100,000 $93,000 $78,955 Hybrid orange = no new data; yellow = need to decide on final price, but have limited data $55,050 Please Provide Comments Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes 9
Class 6 in 2019 Class 6 in 2019 Price Price (MY 2021) (MY 2021) DMV/Price DMV/Price Digest Digest Fuel Type Fuel Type ICF/CALETC ICF/CALETC AFLEET AFLEET HD System HD System Gasoline $59,183 $59,183 $59,450 Diesel Diesel Electric Hybrid $87,346 $87,346 $75,000 $68,450 $90,000 $86,156 Natural Gas $115,000 $103,450 BEV orange = no new data; yellow = need to decide on final price, but have limited data $165,000 $165,000 $185,000 $135,297 Please Provide Comments Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes 10
Class 8 Combination in 2019 Class 8 Combination in 2019 Price Price (MY 2021) (MY 2021) DMV/Price DMV/Price Digest Digest Fuel Type Fuel Type ICF/CALETC ICF/CALETC AFLEET AFLEET HD System HD System HVIP HVIP Other Other Diesel $153,969 $153,969 $130,000 $124,820 Natural gas $177,065 $177,065 $170,000 $199,820 $187,045 BEV $350,000 $434,642 $480,000 $338,990 $224,975 $350,000 Hydrogen $480,000 $287,368 orange = no new data; yellow = need to decide on final price, but have limited data Please Provide Comments Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes 11
CalETC Electric Truck Forecast Disaggregated current costs of trucks as battery and balance of truck (after removing estimated tariff costs, analysis done in 2019) Developed separate cost reduction trajectories for battery and balance of truck based on BNEF cost reduction trajectories for batteries and CEC demand forecast for balance of truck (need updated data do confirm previous forecast) For each Class 4-8 technologies developed separate curves to estimate cost reductions Subtask 6. Forecast Vehicle Attributes Subtask 6. Forecast Vehicle Attributes 12
Combine Battery Price Projections with disaggregation of current vehicle prices Total https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-cited-below-100-kwh-for-the-first-time-in-2020-while-market-average-sits-at-137-kwh/ Subtask 6. Forecast Vehicle Attributes Subtask 6. Forecast Vehicle Attributes 13
Methodology Methodology Review existing data sources and create costs per general charging category/type Level 2, DC Fast Charging (50 kW, 150 kW, 350 kW, 800 kW), Hydrogen Data Sources Data Sources AFLEET model (Argonne) EV and H2 EDF/GNA Report (2019) RMI (2020) ICCT, 2 Report in 2019 EV and H2 NREL (2015) Goal for Today Goal for Today Please provide additional sources for fueling infrastructure prices Subtask 5. Forecast ZEV and Low Subtask 5. Forecast ZEV and Low- -NOX Fueling/ Charging Infrastructure Costs Infrastructure Costs NOX Fueling/ Charging 14
Feedback Feedback Please provide and send feedback on vehicle prices The 2021 prices provide the starting point for vehicle price forecasts which are the most critical element in the modeling Next Steps Next Steps 15
Schedule Schedule Task Task Description Description Status Status Estimated Estimated Completion Completion February 2021 Task 2 Review 2019 Forecast Attributes/ Matrix Update Historical Vehicle Attributes Vehicle Technology Forecast Completed Task 3 Almost Complete Complete July 2021 Task 4 June 2021 Task 5 Forecast ZEV and Low-NOX Fueling/ Charging Infrastructure Costs Forecast Vehicle Attributes Almost complete July 2021 Task 6 Ongoing August 2021 16
Class 4/5 in 2019 Class 4/5 in 2019 Price Price (MY 2021) (MY 2021) DMV/Price DMV/Price Digest Digest Fuel Type Fuel Type ICF/CALETC ICF/CALETC AFLEET AFLEET HD System HD System Gasoline $41,287 $41,287 $47,560 Diesel $50,725 $50,725 $55,460 Natural Gas $60,060 Propane $58,560 BEV $100,000 $100,000 Hybrid $59,200 Please Provide Comments orange = no new data; yellow = need to decide on final price, but have limited data Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes 17
Class 7 in 2019 Class 7 in 2019 Price Price (MY 2021) (MY 2021) DMV/Price DMV/Price Digest Digest Fuel Type Fuel Type ICF/CALETC ICF/CALETC AFLEET AFLEET HD System HD System Diesel Diesel Electric Hybrid $91,583 $91,583 $98,534 $121,814 Natural Gas $133,534 Please Provide Comments orange = no new data; yellow = need to decide on final price, but have limited data Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes 18
Class 8 Dump Truck in 2019 Class 8 Dump Truck in 2019 Price Price (MY 2021) (MY 2021) DMV/Price DMV/Price Digest Digest Fuel Type Fuel Type ICF/CALETC ICF/CALETC AFLEET AFLEET HD System HD System Diesel $187,219 $187,219 $300,000 $98,600 Natural gas $220,000 $220,000 $153,600 BEV $370,000 $370,000 $257,930 Please Provide Comments orange = no new data; yellow = need to decide on final price, but have limited data Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes 19
Class 8 Refuse/Recycling in 2019 Class 8 Refuse/Recycling in 2019 Price Price (MY 2021) (MY 2021) DMV/Price DMV/Price Digest Digest Fuel Type Fuel Type ICF/CALETC ICF/CALETC AFLEET AFLEET HD System HD System HVIP HVIP Diesel Diesel Electric Hybrid $300,000 $306,000 $300,000 $192,930 $350,000 $228,342 Natural Gas $335,000 $335,000 $247,930 $305,746 BEV $500,000 $395,000 $500,000 $408,750* Please Provide Comments orange = no new data; yellow = need to decide on final price, but have limited data Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes Subtask 3. Update Historical Vehicle Attributes 20
