Analysis of 2014 Elections in Maryland
The 2014 elections in Maryland revealed interesting trends, with divisions among Democrats in the governor's race and changes in the General Assembly. The Democratic hegemony in the Maryland General Assembly eroded but remained intact. Detailed statistics on various races and districts are provided, showcasing key victories and close contests.
Download Presentation
Please find below an Image/Link to download the presentation.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author. Download presentation by click this link. If you encounter any issues during the download, it is possible that the publisher has removed the file from their server.
E N D
Presentation Transcript
2014 Elections in Maryland Dan Nataf Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues, Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli Nov. 13/20, 2014
Governors Race: Primary showed early divisions among Democrats anti-incumbent sentiment Democrats Brown Gansler Mizeur % 51 24 22 Republicans Hogan Craig Lollar George % 43 29 16 12 Turnout 24%
Governors Race: General elections shows that Hogan win still the exception statewide General Gov. Brown Hogan % Vote Hogan - Dem 47.2 51 818,890 884,400 +65,510 Franchot Frosh 62.7% 55.8% 1,061,267 935,846 -176,867 -51,446
Maryland General Assembly: 2010 vs. 2014 *Democratic hegemony eroded but intact Democrats 2010 2014 Republicans 2010 2014 House of Delegates 98 93 House of Delegates 43 48 (69.5%) (66%) (30.5%) (34%) Senate 35 33 Senate 12 14 (74.5%) (70%) (26.5%) (30%)
District 33 House of Delegates 40000 35987 Dem range: 30-45% of Republican vote Closest Dem attempt: Pat Weathersbee in 2006 missed McConkey by 1428 votes. 35000 29519 30000 27262 24046 25000 20279 20000 18612 18542 16655 16157 15966 15226 15138 14818 14625 15000 13631 13461 11427 10939 10484 9553 10000 7885 7568 5000 0 0 0 2002 2006 2010 2014 Dem1 Rep1 (McC) Dem2 (33b) Rep2 (33b Costa)) Dem3 Rep3 (Vitale)
House of Delegates 30, 31, 32 25000 Ned Carey takes a seat from Republicans in 31a 20858 19555 20000 17120 15904 14484 14995 14289 15000 13066 12327 12012 11932 11100 9496 10000 6332 5496 5394 5221 4698 5000 0 30 31 32 Dem1 Rep1 Dem2 Rep2 Dem3 (A/B) Rep3 (A/B)
Senate 30, 31, 32 28338 30000 Astle sneaks by Quinn in D30 DeGrange sweeps in D32 25000 22461 21284 19102 20000 15000 13270 10929 10000 5000 0 30 31 32 Dem Rep
AA County: Council Districts 25,000 22,901 Grasso reelected in D2 Trumbauer narrow win in D6, Pruski wins in D4 Smith narrow win in D1 20,000 18,383 16,322 13,932 14,390 15,000 13,233 12,239 10,064 10,751 9,776 9,008 10,000 8,772 6,739 5,000 0 0 District 1 District 2 District 3 District 4 District 5 District 6 District 7 Rep Dem
Council: Early vs Election Day District EV Gap (D-R) ED Gap (D-R) Loss ED 1 15.6% (18.4%)* -2.7% 18.2% 2 -3.1% (21.7%)* -12.8% 9.7% 3 -35.7% (15.7%)* -48.7% 13.0% 4 17.5% (23%)* 13.2% 4.3% 5 1.1% (24%)* -9.1% 10.2% 6 13.9% (25%)* -1.9% 15.9% EV as percentage of total vote
Maryland House of Delegates: 2010 vs. 2014 Contested, Solid and Uncontested Seats by Party 33 35 50 46 44 45 30 40 35 25 35 31 21 19 30 20 25 19 15 20 14 10 15 10 5 10 4 5 5 0 0 Contested seats Solid seats Uncontested seats Contested seats Solid seats Uncontested seats 2010 2014 2010 2014 81/83% of Dem seats were/are solid or uncontested - 74% of all seats in 2014 were solid or contested counting both parties 58/79% of Rep seats were/are solid or uncontested
Maryland Senate: 2010 vs. 2014 12 10 16 15 14 15 15 10 14 7 8 12 10 6 8 4 5 3 4 4 6 4 1 1 2 2 0 0 Contested seats Solid seats Uncontested Contested seats Solid seats Uncontested seats seats 2010 2014 2010 2014 86/89% of Dem seats were/are solid or uncontested - 89% of all seats in 2014 were solid or contested counting both parties 92/93% of Rep seats were/are solid or uncontested
Trends in Registered Voters 2,500,000 2,051,319 1,957,279 2,000,000 1,733,432 1,556,512 1,479,530 1,442,927 1,500,000 950,195 925,614 909,735 1,000,000 833,200 778,245 694,982 614,887 528,274 488,496 373,988 500,000 310,119 229,257 0 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated
Turnout by County/Lean: 1994-2014 70% 67% 67% 66% 65% 63% 63% 61% 63% 62% 61% 60% 59% 59% 59% 58% 57% 57% 55% 55% 55% 52% 50% 50% 50% 50% 45% 45% 45% 40% 40% 35% 2014 2010 2006 2002 1998 1994 Dem Metro Rep Total
Trends in Turnout by Party: 2002-2010 70 65 64 63 63 62 61 60 59 58 55 55 50 45 44 42 41 40 38 35 30 2002 2006 2010 Average Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated
Trends in Voting: Governors Races 1994-2014 (Raw Vote) 1200000 1821280 1,044,961 1734710 1703290 1693014 1535329 1000000 921594 879592 1410195 884400 846972 813116 813422 818890 776,319 800000 708094 702101 688357 600000 400000 200000 0 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Democrat Republican
Trends in Voting: Governors Races 1994-2014 Vote by Party 1200000 1,044,961 1000000 921594 884,400 879592 846972 818,890 813422 813116 776,319 800000 708094 702101 688357 600000 400000 200000 0 Democrat Republican 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Trends in Voting: Governors Races 1994-2014 Party Change 250000 191235 200000 138878 150000 123367 108172 108081 100000 50000 0 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 -13744 -50000 -33550 -36797 -66476 -100000 -150000 -200000 -226071 -250000 Democrat Republican
Change in Dem Vote 2014-2010 by County 0 Frederick Montgomery -1,063-1,911 Saint Mary's Allegany Carroll Charles Worcester Calvert Anne Arundel -1,254 Caroline -896 Garrett Harford -971 Kent Somerset Queen Anne's Talbot -1,504 Dorchester Howard Washington Wicomico Baltimore City Cecil Baltimore County Prince George's -2,521 -3,828-3,006 -3,304 -5,000 -4,217 -4,285 -4,540 -4,787 -6,384-5,366 -5,494 -10,000 -8,988 -11,406 -15,000 -20,000 -19,007 -25,000 Baltimore County and Mont. County accounted for biggest Dem losses. -26,855 -30,000 -30,160 -35,000 -35,256 -40,000 -39,068 -45,000
Change in Dem Vote 2014-2010 by County Brown s Vote in 2014 as a Percentage of 2010 O Malley Vote 100% Baltimore City drop is 11 percentage points greater than PG County Losses are largest in Republican areas. 91% 90% 86% 85% 85% 82% 80% 80% 73% 72% 70% 70% 69% 68% 67% 70% 66% 65% 65% 64% 63% 63% 62% 61% 60% 58% 60% 50% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Franchot, Frosh, Brown by County Franchot and Brown not so different in Dem strongholds 200,000 187,836 185,658 178,855 180,000 175,892 184,950 Brown with big differentials in Balt. County/AA County 165,920 Fran 160,000 163,694 140,000 135,855 Frsh 117,634 120,000 112,168 106,213 102,734 Br 100,000 92,834 73,860 80,000 63,084 58,001 55,777 60,000 49,227 43,790 37,267 40,000 31,465 30,839 28,340 27,682 24,601 26,715 26,640 19,814 17,154 3,2108,62214,59211,9868,375 13,377 20,000 9,09512,082 11,7859,8716,546 9,579 11,589 8,165 10,604 5,89310,471 10,3495,467 2,1354,4209,6618,8335,521 9,131 3,7578,203 3,252 4,172 6,264 4,629 5,810 2,4605,657 2,603 3,431 4,561 1,931 2,748 4,396 1,634 1,865 2,772 0 Brown 2014 Frosh Franchot
Counties Where a Dem Won Statewide Franchot Allegany Anne Arundel Baltimore City Baltimore Calvert Caroline Carroll Cecil Charles Dorchester Frederick Garrett Harford Howard Kent Montgomery Prince George's Queen Anne's St. Mary's Somerset Talbot Washington Wicomico Worcester Frosh Allegany Anne Arundel Baltimore City Baltimore Calvert Caroline Carroll Cecil Charles Dorchester Frederick Garrett Harford Howard Kent Montgomery Prince George's Queen Anne's St. Mary's Somerset Talbot Washington Wicomico Worcester Brown Allegany Anne Arundel Baltimore City Baltimore Calvert Caroline Carroll Cecil Charles Dorchester Frederick Garrett Harford Howard Kent Montgomery Prince George's Queen Anne's St. Mary's Somerset Talbot Washington Wicomico Worcester
Poll Results: Level of Interest in Gov. Race by Party (CSLI survey) 10 point advantage to Republicans; unaffiliated with lowest interest 50 43 45 40 39 39 38 40 37 37 33 35 30 27 24 25 21 20 16 15 10 5 2 2 2 0 0 Very Somewhat Not very NA Overall Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated
How informed about issues in race (Exit Poll) Hogan sympathetic groups with double digit lead over most Brown sympathetic groups 85 90 82 79 80 73 69 68 70 64 62 61 58 57 60 54 52 47 50 40 30 20 10 0
Political Leanings: Exit Poll 80 67 66 70 63 60 Dems somewhat more inclined to be independent 50 40 30 25 21 20 14 13 11 9 8 10 3 1 1 0 0 0 Strong Democrat Not strong Democrat Independent Not strong Republican Strong Republican Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated
Political Leanings: Vote for Governor 120 Democrats much more likely to defect than Republicans; independents lean to Hogan 99 100 91 88 74 80 55 60 42 40 27 20 9 5 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 Strong Democrat Not strong Democrat Independent Not strong Republican Strong Republican Brown Hogan Other
Defections by Party: Exit Poll 120 Virtually NO Rep. defection; nearly quarter of all Dems defect 96 100 75 80 60 53 39 40 23 20 8 3 2 1 0 Brown Hogan Other Democrat Republican Unaffiliated
Defections by Leaning: Governors Race (CSLI survey) 100 89 90 82 80 72 70 60 58 60 46 50 35 40 31 26 30 24 19 20 12 9 8 7 6 5 10 2 0 Dem Strong Dem Somewhat Strong Dem Not Strong Rep Strong Rep Somewhat Strong Rep Not Strong Hogan Brown Undecided
Issues Overall (Exit Poll) 50 Most salient issues leaned favorably to Hogan/Reps. Education is the big exception. 43 45 40 35 33 35 29 30 25 20 19 19 20 15 15 15 9 8 10 5 5 0
Issues by Candidate 80 Taxes, change, cost of living economic issues for Reps. 70 70 65 Quality of life and equal opportunity issues for Dems 60 53 50 43 40 34 33 26 30 24 23 17 16 20 14 13 11 11 10 10 9 10 5 5 4 4 4 3 0 Brown Hogan
Issues by Political Lean 40 ENV. 30 20 CostLiv 10 TAXES ED Change 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Defections not motivated by taxes, but by need for change, environment and health care. -10 Heath Care -20 -30 -40 Strong D Not SD Indep Not SR Strong R
Issues and Democrats for Brown/Hogan and Republicans for Hogan: Exit Poll 55 61 Need change 2 10 24 Education 71 4 5 Environment 47 11 11 Health care 36 72 29 Taxes 9 31 16 Cost of living 12 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 RepHogan DemHogan DemBrown
Anne Arundel Results: 1986-2014 Governors Race Dem Rep Vote for Governor 80000 66972 60000 40000 O Malley 42% Ehrlich 57% Glendening 43% Sauerbrey 57% Brown 32% Hogan 66% 20000 -27581 -20788 Schaeffer 49% Shepard 51% -28743 -21963 -53215 0 -2254 Schaeffer 83% Mooney 17% -20000 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 -40000 Glendening 40% Sauerbrey 60% O Malley 43% Ehrlich 54% -60000 KK Townsend 35% Ehrlich 65% -61194 -80000
AA County Predicts Minimum Democratic Vote Needed for Statewide Win 38% Anne Arundel Democratic Candidate for Governor Vote Predicts Maryland Overall Vote 70 Predicted Maryland Democratic Total 51.252.152.953.754.655.456.357.158.058.859.7 60.5 60 50.4 394041424344454647484950 43.644.445.346.147.047.848.749.5 50 40 303132333435363738 Anne Arundel Democratic Vote 30 20 10 0 AACo DemVote MD Predicted 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
107,952 110000 97465 93533 87676 89456 85040 90000 89613 68,379 6387983305 70000 57615 Rep 54899 50000 Dem Other 30000 10000 10486 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 12425 2014 -10000 39573 Including Shay -1930 GAP 2716 23987 3920 6151
Governors Race Predicts CE Outcomes: Republicans 140000 116362 120000 113968 110002 106897 106495 105379 102969 97465 97127 100000 93533 92553 87216 83663 83305 80000 63879 63563 58330 57615 60000 40000 19664 20000 1116 715 0 -316 -338 -980 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 RepGvote RepCEvote Predicted Error -20000
Governors Race Predicts CE Outcomes: Dems 100000 92851 89613 89456 88161 87676 85107 85040 78909 80000 74660 69910 66428 66195 65863 65028 60753 60000 55918 54920 54899 40000 20000 10129 7811 0 -332 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 -4506 -13016 -20000 -19546 DemGvote DemCEvote Predicted Error -40000
County Executive Voters Johnson Vote 100 Johnson losses heightened both due to Dem defections but very low score among centrist groups 88 90 84 82 80 71 70 64 60 50 36 40 33 30 25 20 11 9 8 10 4 4 0
County Executive Voters How informed? 90 As with the Governor s race, Republican leaning categories were more informed. 77 80 68 70 64 61 60 54 52 47 47 50 46 44 44 42 41 40 30 23 20 10 0
County Executive Issues 25 Dems still favor quality of life and equal oppty issues Reps still favor taxes, fiscal and economic issues 20 20 19 17 15 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 Johnson Schuh
County Executive Reaching Voters Factor Overall Johnson % of total Schuh % of total Cases % Endorsed by some person or group I respect 101 97 78 23 22 18 11 10 7 12 12 11 Newspaper stories about candidate Information from the Internet Endorsed by a newspaper like the Capital, Washington Post or the Sun Literature received in the mail 46 11 4 6 42 10 3 7 The candidate or a representative came to my door to introduce him/herself 40 9 1 8 Paid ads on TV 18 12 4 3 1 1 -- 3 1 -- Paid ads in the newspapers Total 434 100
Other Local Races: Adams/Leitess 100 89 Partisan polarization more predictable for this race. 88 88 90 84 83 83 81 79 80 69 68 70 63 60 54 52 47 46 50 40 34 27 30 24 17 16 16 20 15 12 10 10 9 10 0 Leitess Adams
County Council 5: Vote mostly for or against your candidate Armstrong Voters 90 Race is determined mostly by Peroutka love or hate! 80 80 80 73 67 70 66 64 64 60 56 53 53 49 49 47 50 46 44 40 36 36 35 33 30 23 20 20 20 10 0 Unaffiliated Strong Democrat Democrat Liberal Not strong Democrat Independent Moderate Strong Republican Republican Not strong Republican Conservative For Against
Other observations about local races County Council: Dem/Rep district pattern holds (1, 4, 6 Dem; 3, 5, 7 Rep with 2 swing) State Senate No change 3 Dem/2 Rep although margin in District 30 very small House of Delegates Democrats gain in 31a otherwise all incumbents return; Sid Saab and Megan Simonaire are new faces for Reps; Mark Chang for Dems Incumbents returned for all other positions. Only Democratic countywide seat now is Sheriff.
Demographics: Gender Gender gap Dems least supported by men, not compensated by strong support from women. 60 56 50 49 50 44 43 41 40 34 34 30 20 10 0 Armstrong Leitess Johnson Brown Female Male
Demographics: Age by Dem Cands. Dems support varies among younger groups 80 72 70 67 Older groups support Reps. 63 62 58 60 57 55 54 50 50 43 42 42 42 40 37 36 36 35 35 34 33 33 31 30 30 25 20 10 0 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+ Armstrong Leitess Johnson Brown
Demographics: Race Blacks nearly unanimous in support of Dems 120 100 100 100 87 87 Whites favor Reps nearly 2-1 80 60 56 60 53 50 43 38 36 36 40 30 20 14 20 11 0 African-American Caucasian Hispanic or Asian Other Armstrong Leitess Johnson Brown
Demographics: Education 70 Higher ed favors Dems 65 58 60 52 50 45 42 39 37 37 40 36 35 34 30 27 30 20 20 11 11 10 0 High school Some college Bachelor s degree Postgraduate wok Armstrong Leitess Johnson Brown
Conclusions Election Environment: Hostile to Democrats /Obama losses inevitable, damage control. But impact on Brown much greater than on other Dems running statewide and in MGA. Party registration creates overconfidence, false sense of inevitability among Democrats. Turnout differences compensate. Candidate Invites comparisons to Obama race, rollout of health exchange Web site, tied to O Malley, curse of Lt. Govr Johnson unable to distinguish himself from Brown gets predicted low vote Campaign: Campaign message matters Democrats create targeted appeals, lack broader vision or economic message focus on core Democratic issues which don t have much saliency to swing voters Turnout: Ground game matters Methods become diffused, important in close elections shape turnout in a low turnout environment. Precedent? An African-American running mate prerequisite for Gov. Republican upswing? Schuh, Pantelides, Hogan gains in MGA?
