Uber Elder Drop Rates Analysis: Insights from 300 Runs
Uber Elder Drop
Rates
Analysis of 300 runs by charlym
Recorded in 3.16 (Scourge)
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The title says it all
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If you want exact, to the
tenth of a percent drop
rates… you’re going to need
a bigger sample.
•
Flip a perfectly fair coin 300
times and you are 13.6% to
get AT LEAST 160 heads. Roll
a perfectly fair 6 sided die
300 times and you are 7.3%
to get AT LEAST 60 rolls of 6
•
However statistics has the
solution, confidence
intervals
The Very Common Drops
•
300 runs dropped 87 Mark of the Elder
and 83 Mark of the Shaper
•
This puts the 95% confidence interval for
the drop rates at 24.16-34.37% for Elder,
and 22.91-32.99% for Shaper
•
If we combine the two, we have 170 rings
with a total 95% CI of 51.01-62.15%
•
Actual drop rate is probably 30% for each,
but this is definitely not proven.
•
These items are good but not uber and
way too common to hold trade value.
Uncommon
Powerhouses
•
Sometimes offmeta, always good, these items are a
lot of currency early league. And unlike later items
they aren’t all THAT rare.
•
47 helms and 45 quivers from 300 indicate 15%
drop rate for each is very plausible, but that is not
proven.
•
95% CI is 11.99-20.21% (helm), 11.40-19.48 (quiver)
The Very Rare
Niche Items
•
These items are well documented to be rare. Most
speculate Disintegrator to be the most common, Voidforge
next, then Eternity Shroud as the ultra-rare item that is no
longer really chased after.
•
95% CI: Disint 5.43-11.63%. VF 1.82-6.03%. TES 0.52-3.38%
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TLDW: don’t plan on these in SSF
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Most speculate the actual drop rates to be 3, 2 and 1 in 60
respectively.
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Watcher’s Eye is the chase unique everyone is chasing in Uber Elder
•
Unidentified ones often trade for upwards of five exalts. This is due to a miniscule chance of
getting a combination of mods that is worth (literally) thousands of exalts.
•
106 from 300 runs with the +10% chance from Uncharted Realms is in line with the widely
speculated 25% base chance.
•
95% CI is 30.14% to 40.90% on this item.
•
Note: ilvl 86 Eyes have three aura mods. i85 ones have two aura mods and are typically worth 60-
70% less when unidentified.
•
When you get an Eye, it doesn’t even take up your loot slot. You’ll get another unique too.
The Bonuses
•
The divination card The Gulf shows Zana mourning
Sirus’s apparent death, prior to Sirus becoming the
omnicidal nihilistic monster he is at present
endgame.
•
It drops from Uber Elder.
•
It’s MUCH rarer than I suspected. 11 drops from
300 runs. That’s only two sets, and Thread of Hope
is a common Sirus drop.
•
95% CI shows a 2.06-6.45% drop rate
•
There’s also Maven’s Invitation: The Feared, much
more common at 53 drops (13.77-22.38%)
Charlym conducted 300 runs in Path of Exile's 3.16 (Scourge) league to analyze drop rates from Uber Elder. The analysis covers common drops like Mark of the Elder and Mark of the Shaper, uncommon items with plausible drop rates, speculation on rare niche items, and the highly sought-after Watcher's Eye. Confidence intervals, actual drop rates, and insights on the game's loot dynamics are discussed.
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Presentation Transcript
Uber Elder Drop Rates Analysis of 300 runs by charlym Recorded in 3.16 (Scourge)
The title says it all If you want exact, to the tenth of a percent drop rates you re going to need a bigger sample. Flip a perfectly fair coin 300 times and you are 13.6% to get AT LEAST 160 heads. Roll a perfectly fair 6 sided die 300 times and you are 7.3% to get AT LEAST 60 rolls of 6 However statistics has the solution, confidence intervals Disclaimer Disclaimer 300 is a small sample size small sample size 300 is a
The Very Common Drops 300 runs dropped 87 Mark of the Elder and 83 Mark of the Shaper This puts the 95% confidence interval for the drop rates at 24.16-34.37% for Elder, and 22.91-32.99% for Shaper If we combine the two, we have 170 rings with a total 95% CI of 51.01-62.15% Actual drop rate is probably 30% for each, but this is definitely not proven. These items are good but not uber and way too common to hold trade value.
Sometimes offmeta, always good, these items are a lot of currency early league. And unlike later items they aren t all THAT rare. 47 helms and 45 quivers from 300 indicate 15% drop rate for each is very plausible, but that is not proven. 95% CI is 11.99-20.21% (helm), 11.40-19.48 (quiver) Uncommon Powerhouses
These items are well documented to be rare. Most speculate Disintegrator to be the most common, Voidforge next, then Eternity Shroud as the ultra-rare item that is no longer really chased after. 95% CI: Disint 5.43-11.63%. VF 1.82-6.03%. TES 0.52-3.38% TLDW: don t plan on these in SSF Most speculate the actual drop rates to be 3, 2 and 1 in 60 respectively. The Very Rare Niche Items
The Big Moneymaker The Big Moneymaker Watcher s Eye is the chase unique everyone is chasing in Uber Elder Unidentified ones often trade for upwards of five exalts. This is due to a miniscule chance of getting a combination of mods that is worth (literally) thousands of exalts. 106 from 300 runs with the +10% chance from Uncharted Realms is in line with the widely speculated 25% base chance. 95% CI is 30.14% to 40.90% on this item. Note: ilvl 86 Eyes have three aura mods. i85 ones have two aura mods and are typically worth 60- 70% less when unidentified. When you get an Eye, it doesn t even take up your loot slot. You ll get another unique too.
The Bonuses The divination card The Gulf shows Zana mourning Sirus s apparent death, prior to Sirus becoming the omnicidal nihilistic monster he is at present endgame. It drops from Uber Elder. It s MUCH rarer than I suspected. 11 drops from 300 runs. That s only two sets, and Thread of Hope is a common Sirus drop. 95% CI shows a 2.06-6.45% drop rate There s also Maven s Invitation: The Feared, much more common at 53 drops (13.77-22.38%)
