Trump vs Nixon: Parallels and Contrasts in Political History
Delve into the striking similarities and differences between President Trump and President Nixon in the context of historical events such as Watergate. Explore the actions of special prosecutors, challenges faced by both leaders, and the impact of political climate and media on their presidencies. Reflect on how these parallels and contrasts shape the political landscape today, raising questions about the recurrence of historical patterns and their relevance in modern times.
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Watergate Revisited An Insiders View Week Twelve: Relevance to Today Is it D j Vu all over again? Geoff Shepard, Instructor Osher Lifelong Learning Institute at Temple University Philadelphia, 2019
This is the presentation for Week Twelve of a twelve week course on the Watergate Scandal. The course is presented by Geoff Shepard during 2019 to the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute at Temple University in Philadelphia. The concluding presentation is focused on the Relevance to Today, which will compare President Trump s situation with that of President Nixon and explore whether the nation is experiencing a repeat of the forces that undid a presidential election some four decades ago. Mr. Shepard is solely responsible for the content of the course and the viewpoints expressed herein.
Trump vs Nixon Similarities Each a change candidate, prevailing in an exceptionally close election, during a hugely divisive era I. Each a classic outsider, thin-skinned and distrusted by party elites II. III. Each came into office opposed by every DC-based institution, including both Houses of Congress, party elites, Hill staff, federal bureaucrats, law firms, think tanks, and especially the media IV. Each furious about being bedeviled by highly partisan special prosecutors, and seemingly stripped of their own Justice Department* V. Each faced with heavily Democratic DC jury pool and Circuit Court judges, such that indictment would be tantamount to conviction
Trump vs Nixon Differences Nixon was a seasoned, career politician I. Watergate crimes clearly occurred (break-in and cover-up); Mueller Report found no evidence of collusion II. III. Watergate prosecutors acted with total and unreviewed independence from DOJ, and Democrats firmly controlled both Houses of Congress IV. The liberal Eastern Establishment controlled all media outlets. There were no dissenting views, no Fox News, no talk radio, no podcasts V. In retrospect, Nixon played by the Establishment s rules which today would counsel moving on and seeking bi-partisan cooperation
Special Prosecutor Parallels 1. Specially recruited, highly partisan prosecutors, operating virtually without DOJ supervision 2. Clear goal of getting to the President at all cost 3. Seemingly endless, wide-ranging investigations 4. Squeezing little people to adjust recollections & flip on superiors 5. Selective enforcement of the laws, including use of obscure statutes of questionable constitutionality (Logan Act, Corrupt Practices Act) 6. Key role of thought crimes: obstruction of justice, collusion, perjury 7. Mueller obstruction material vs Nixon as unindicted co-conspirator 8. Uniform reaction to information release (transcripts vs Report) Net effect of ongoing investigations was to bring presidency to a virtual halt
Special Prosecutor Differences 1. Investigations launched at different point in presidency, triggering different reactions within Congress and the Executive Branch 2. Mueller investigated the Trump campaign; Cox/Vorenberg investigated the entire Nixon presidency 3. Mueller concluded work without a single collusion indictment 4. WSPF grand jury evidence transferred to HJC in secret; possible Mueller transfer remains unresolved 5. Bitter partisan divides continue, but going in different directions: Republican Senate will emphasize rapid confirmations Democratic House will continue its series of investigations, but with eye on 2020 (threaten, but never actually initiate impeachment) No evidence of collusion, but DOJ now looking into basis for spying
Testimony of AG William Barr (4/10/19) BARR: As I said in my confirmation hearing, I am going to be reviewing both the genesis and the conduct of intelligence activities directed at the Trump campaign during 2016. And a lot of this has already been investigated, and a substantial portion of it has been investigated and is being investigated by the office of the Inspector General, but one of the things I want to do is pull everything together from the various investigations that have gone on, including on the Hill and in the [Justice] Department, and see if there are any remaining questions to be addressed. SEN. SHAHEEN (D., NH): And can you share with us why you feel a need to do that? BARR: Well, you know, for the same reason we re worried about foreign influence in elections, we want to make sure that during elections I think spying on a political campaign is a big deal. It s a big deal. The generation I grew up in, which is the Vietnam War period, people were all concerned about spying on anti-war people and so forth by the government, and there were a lot of rules put in place to make sure that there s an adequate basis before our law enforcement agencies get involved in political surveillance. I m not suggesting that those rules were violated but I think it s important to look at that. and I m not talking about the FBI necessarily, but intelligence agencies more broadly.
Testimony of AG William Barr, Cont (4/10/19) SHAHEEN: So you re not suggesting, though, that spying occurred? BARR: Well, I guess I think spying did occur, yes. I think spying did occur. SHAHEEN: Well BARR: The question was whether it was adequately predicated. And I m not suggesting it wasn t adequately predicated. I need to explore that. I think it s my obligation. Congress is usually very concerned about intelligence agencies and law enforcement agencies staying in their proper lane. I want to make sure that happened. We have a lot of rules about that. I want to say that I ve said I m reviewing this. I haven t set up a team yet, but I have in mind having some colleagues help me pull all this information together and letting me know whether there are some areas that should be looked at. I also want to make clear. I also want to make clear, this is not launching an investigation of the FBI. Frankly, to the extent there were any issues at the FBI, I do not view it as a problem that s endemic to the FBI. I think there was probably a failure among a group of leaders there, at the upper echelon. So I don t like to hear attacks about the FBI because I think the FBI is an outstanding organization and I think Chris Wray is a great partner for me. I m very pleased he s there as the director. If it becomes necessary to look over some former officials activities, I expect I ll be relying heavily on Chris and work closely with him in looking at that information. But that s what I m doing. I feel I have an obligation to make sure that government power is not abused. I think that s one of the principal roles of the Attorney General.
Critical Elements for a National Scandal I. Perception of Substantial Wrongdoing II. Divisive Era, coupled with Divided Government III. Full Media Advocacy and Support IV. Appointment of a Special Prosecutor, operating through one or more grand juries
Nixon as the Single Disruptive Influence 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 K e n n e d y Eisenhower --- Nixon Roosevelt Truman Johnson Nixon Senate House Democratic Control Republican Control
Divided Government 16 20 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12 K e n n e d y F o r d Eisenhower --- Nixon Reagan --- Bush I Bush I Roosevelt Truman Johnson Nixon Carter Clinton Bush II Obama Trump Senate House Democratic Control Watergate Iran Contra Whitewater Plame/US Attys ? Republican Control The only major political scandals in modern times have occurred each and every time (i) a lame duck President was faced with (ii) a totally hostile Congress, coupled with (iii) appointment of a dedicated prosecutor.
Course Outline Review Dean; secret (but erroneous) allegations about Nixon (Week 1) Players Backgrounds and Overview of Three Key Timeframes (Week 2) The aftermath of the Break-in arrests (Week 3) The collapse of the Cover-up (Week 4) Nixon s dramatic demise (Week 8) Three Important Diversions The effect of 100% staff turn over at both WH and DOJ (Week 5) The prosecutors two-pronged attack on President Nixon (Week 6) The hypocrisy of the Plumbers prosecution (Week 7) The Lack of Due Process in the Cover-up Trial (Week 9) The Allure of the White House Tapes (Week 10) Focus on Judicial and Prosecutorial Abuses (Week 11) Three Surprising Revelations: Ex parte meetings with judges; no jail time for
Watergates Principal Players John H. Mitchell Justice Department / CRP John D. Ehrlichman White House H.R. Bob Haldeman White House John W. Dean White House G. Gordon Liddy White House / CRP Jeb S. Magruder White House / CRP
Additional Research Aids o Shepard s Watergate Books: o The Secret Plot (2008) o The Real Watergate Scandal (2015) o Shepard s website: www.geoffshepard.com o Annotated Watergate Chronology o Annotated Bibliography o Additional Documents (uncovered since 2015) o Links to over three dozen Nixon Legacy Forums o Being added: Digitized copies of all Shepard s research files o Perhaps: Release of Road Map and related Grand Jury transcripts o Coming in 2024: Release of internal Ervin and House Judiciary Committee records
Thanks and Recognition 1. Temple University, Adam Brunner & this class 2. The Osher Lifelong Learning Institute in San Francisco 3. Darryl Rode and his crew from Keystone Pictures 4. Delia Rios and C-SPAN, who soon will broadcast Weeks 10 & 11 5. Officers and Directors of the Richard Nixon Foundation 6. From long, long ago: President Nixon and my colleagues from his White House staff Harvard Law Professors Alan Dershowitz and Clark Byse Whittier College Professor Albert Upton and the Republican Woman s Club The continuing search for truth: Fear the Poet
Accusers Feet of Clay 1. Archie Cox leaked grand jury information to Democratic Senators 2. Clark Mollenhoff reviewed tax returns when Special Counsel 3. David Bazelon improperly disposed of alien property, stacked panels on all appeals from Sirica criminal cases 4. Carmine Bellino bugged Nixon s hotel suite before 60 debates 5. Rick Ben-Veniste s secretary s suicide; Kirkland Ellis departure 6. Bernie Nussbaum thwarted DOJ s Vince Foster suicide investigation 7. Phil Heymann cowardly quit as Deputy AG and ran back to Harvard 8. Hillary Rodham suppressed her Yale study of prior abuses of power 9. Woodstein lied about grand juror interviews, didn t investigate Jaworski s tips on ex parte meetings and their staffing the HJC
Watergates Many Ironies (I) 1. Nixon was admitted to Harvard, but couldn t afford to attend 2. Nixon s Hiss takedown forever angered the liberal Eastern Establishment 3. Allowing FBI s Hoover to stay past retirement age made WH go operational 4. Ehrlichman replaced himself as Counsel in 1970 with neophyte John Dean 5. FBI full-field backgrounder skipped for Dean, since he would be one to read it 6. No lawyers were consulted before WH taping system was installed in 1971 7. Hunt s fake Kennedy cable on Diem assassination was true; See Cable 243 8. Hunt left incriminating evidence in EOB office, deciding it was safest place 9. Key 68 campaign managers were too busy; sent amateurs to do 72 campaign 10. Magruder took Liddy plan to Mitchell for approval for budget reasons 11. WH/DOJ each thought the other was responsible for Liddy and his plan 12. Mitchell fired , but Dean allowed to stay
Watergates Many Ironies (II) 13. Magruder s weaknesses caused others to cover for him 14. Haldeman s return of $350,000 in campaign funds is seen as criminal act 15. Nixon s no immunity stand is seen as obstruction, not a principled stance 16. Silbert and team broke the cover-up, but were fired by WSPF prosecutors 17. Nixon castigated for enthusing about 17 IRS audits; JFK s Ideological Organization Audit Program triggered 10,000 audits of conservative contributors 18. Nixon castigated for taping, yet done by every President since Roosevelt 19. Buzhardt s principled resignation thwarted by St. Clair, who wanted to be AG 20. Church Committee disclosures, a Watergate reform , came a year too late 21. Nixon may have been the last casualty of the Vietnam War 22. Nixon may well have had both 60 and 72 elections stolen from him 23. Watergate s principal perpetrators, Dean and Liddy, are now media darlings 24. Uncontroverted proof of judicial/prosecutorial abuses not seen as news
