Texas Government Development Workshop Agenda July 2020
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1
W
ELCOME
Introductions
Administrative Issues
Agenda Review
2
W
ORKSHOP
A
GENDA
3
W
ORKSHOP
P
URPOSE
Review the Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk
Assessment (THIRA) and Stakeholder Preparedness
Review (SPR) format and approach
Establish a solid foundation for each COG’s THIRA
Provide information and clarify requirements for
development and submission of the SPR by COGs
Provide information on the format and creation of the
annual Homeland Security Strategic Plan
Implementation Plan (IP) submitted by COGs
Discuss the way forward in 2020
4
THIRA / SPR / IP: W
HY
W
E
D
O
T
HIS
Promotes routine, recurring homeland security planning at the
regional level in order to ensure coordination among
stakeholders, improve understanding of risks and gaps, and
focus efforts to enhance preparedness
Strengthens strategic planning by identifying the threats and
hazards with the greatest impacts to communities
Helps to summarize capability gaps in the region and identify
needed resources
Provides framework for regional and local gap mitigation
activities
Provides summaries to inform regional SHSP grant
prioritization meetings
Enhances SHSP grant applications
5
T
HE
THIRA, SPR,
AND
IP P
ROCESS
6
Review of 2019 THIRA / SPR / IP
Scores
7
2019 THIRA / SPR / IP
S
CORES
8
A
v
e
r
a
g
e
S
c
o
r
e
s
THIRA: 14.94 / 15
SPR: 12.38 / 15
IP: 13.31 / 15
2019 THIRA / SPR S
CORES
V
S
.
2018 THIRA / SPR S
CORES
9
T
OTAL
2019 S
CORES
10
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v
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o
r
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/
4
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T
OTAL
2019 S
CORES
VS
. T
OTAL
2018 S
CORES
11
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4
2019 F
EEDBACK
R
EVIEW
12
2019 F
EEDBACK
R
EVIEW
13
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T
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?
“The ability to identify which threat and/or hazard challenges the region was a great
addition that was useful in facilitating discussion. The new THIRA really streamlined
the plan and removed repetitive fillers and inserted some useful stats. These stats
are useful in the applications for not just Homeland Security but other grant
programs.”
“THIRA – Standard Impact Estimates provided a clearer picture of each entity’s role in
responding to a terrorist, threat, or hazard incident.”
“More specific information requested/required made stakeholders delve into reality.”
“In the SPR, Capability levels (sustained, increased, and decreased) heightened each
entity’s awareness of their capability level and provided a channel to reflect on
accomplishments as well as serving as a tool to alert the challenges needing to be
addressed to increase their level.”
“Although quite often, they weren’t fully applicable to our region, the fill-in-the-blank
target capabilities made the process much easier. That really cut down on the
amount of thought that might otherwise be required to develop the statements.”
2019 F
EEDBACK
R
EVIEW
14
W
h
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y
?
“A lot more work and time to complete.”
“The greatest difficulties is always stakeholder participation. When we started this process
years ago it was said to influence funding to the region. Now after several years many
stakeholders see it as a check the box. Luckily within our region we are seeing a lot of new
faces. They don’t see these as just check the box therefore they are willing to share their
knowledge and opinions.”
“Although quite often, they weren’t fully applicable to our region, the fill-in-the-blank target
capabilities made the process much easier. That really cut down on the amount of thought
that might otherwise be required to develop the statements.”
A
d
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“I realize there’s value to using standard language for the Capability Targets. That helps to
ensure that all the required elements are found in each statement. That also allows for the
appearance of a statewide focus on the same issues coming at the same time from all 24
COGs. But, that also allows us to not really have to think too hard about what each core
capability should mean to our respective regions. As far as regional preparedness
planning goes, I think there’s some value to grappling with those capabilities in order to
fully understand how they should and could benefit our regions.”
THIRA D
EVELOPMENT
15
THIRA D
EVELOPMENT
A
GENDA
Review of the THIRA Template
Developing Scenarios
Developing Estimated Impacts
Developing Capability Targets
16
D
EVELOPING
S
CENARIOS
F
o
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s
t
:
•
One natural hazard
•
One technological hazard
•
One human-caused threat
17
F
E
M
A
G
u
i
d
a
n
c
e
•
Exclude threats and hazards with only minor impacts, regardless of
likelihood
•
Consider threats and hazards resulting in large scale disasters or
catastrophic incidents
D
EVELOPING
S
CENARIOS
Provide a plausible, worst-case scenario description of those threats
and hazards that could impact your jurisdiction
•
If you have planned and prepared for the most plausible worst-
case threats, you can handle the lesser events
Longer is not better
•
Be concise
•
One or two paragraphs is usually sufficient
Avoid historical scenarios taken from an All-Hazards Mitigation Plan
•
Demographics, technology, and areas change over time, and
scenarios should account for this
18
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Factors to consider:
•
T
i
m
e
Day of the Week
Season
•
L
o
c
a
t
i
o
n
Address or latitude/longitude
Proximity to residential, coastal, or industrial areas
•
C
o
n
d
i
t
i
o
n
s
Wind Speed
Wind Direction
Humidity
Multiple Events?
•
H
a
z
a
r
d
o
u
s
M
a
t
e
r
i
a
l
R
e
l
e
a
s
e
Agent
Amount and Rate of Release
19
D
EVELOPING
S
CENARIOS
S
CENARIO
M
ODELING
T
OOLS
20
T
HREAT
/H
AZARD
S
CENARIOS
AND
E
STIMATED
I
MPACTS
You can use the same threat and hazard scenarios from
previous THIRA documents
21
COGs fill in numbers for relevant standardized impacts
(fatalities, people requiring evacuation, people requiring
shelter, etc.) for each threat/hazard scenario, using a
standardized impact table
22
T
HREAT
/H
AZARD
S
CENARIOS
AND
E
STIMATED
I
MPACTS
23
T
HREAT
/H
AZARD
S
CENARIOS
AND
E
STIMATED
I
MPACTS
24
T
HREAT
/H
AZARD
S
CENARIOS
AND
E
STIMATED
I
MPACTS
25
T
HREAT
/H
AZARD
S
CENARIOS
AND
E
STIMATED
I
MPACTS
26
T
HREAT
/H
AZARD
S
CENARIOS
AND
E
STIMATED
I
MPACTS
27
T
HREAT
/H
AZARD
S
CENARIOS
AND
E
STIMATED
I
MPACTS
28
T
HREAT
/H
AZARD
S
CENARIOS
AND
E
STIMATED
I
MPACTS
29
T
HREAT
/H
AZARD
S
CENARIOS
AND
E
STIMATED
I
MPACTS
T
HREAT
/H
AZARD
S
CENARIOS
AND
E
STIMATED
I
MPACTS
Points to consider:
•
Impact numbers can be based on real-world events,
SME input, stakeholder discussions, recent exercises,
existing plans, etc.
•
T
h
e
n
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m
b
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a
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30
C
APABILITY
T
ARGET
S
TATEMENTS
Target statements are standardized
C
O
G
s
f
i
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3
-
5
y
e
a
r
s
COGs briefly explain the context/logic behind the
Capability Target numbers
31
32
C
APABILITY
T
ARGET
S
TATEMENTS
33
C
APABILITY
T
ARGET
S
TATEMENTS
C
APABILITY
T
ARGET
S
TATEMENTS
34
C
APABILITY
T
ARGET
S
TATEMENTS
35
C
APABILITY
T
ARGET
S
TATEMENTS
36
C
APABILITY
T
ARGET
S
TATEMENTS
Points to consider:
•
Capability Target statements are standardized; do not
change the language that’s been provided
•
COGs only complete one standardized Capability Target
statement per Core Capability
•
The targets should be reasonable and justifiable, based on
stakeholder experience, subject matter expertise, real
world incidents, exercise, plans, and other sources
•
I
n
t
e
n
t
i
s
t
o
r
e
q
u
i
r
e
C
O
G
T
H
I
R
A
u
p
d
a
t
e
s
e
v
e
r
y
3
y
e
a
r
s
37
2019 THIRA E
XAMPLES
: S
CENARIO
AND
I
MPACT
E
STIMATES
38
2019 THIRA E
XAMPLES
: S
CENARIO
AND
I
MPACT
E
STIMATES
39
2019 THIRA E
XAMPLES
: S
CENARIO
AND
I
MPACT
E
STIMATES
40
2019 THIRA E
XAMPLES
: S
CENARIO
AND
I
MPACT
E
STIMATES
41
2019 THIRA E
XAMPLES
: S
CENARIO
AND
I
MPACT
E
STIMATES
42
2019 THIRA E
XAMPLES
: S
CENARIO
AND
I
MPACT
E
STIMATES
43
2019 THIRA E
XAMPLES
: C
APABILITY
T
ARGETS
44
2019 THIRA E
XAMPLES
: C
APABILITY
T
ARGETS
45
2019 THIRA E
XAMPLES
: C
APABILITY
T
ARGETS
46
2019 THIRA E
XAMPLES
: C
APABILITY
T
ARGETS
47
SPR D
EVELOPMENT
48
SPR D
EVELOPMENT
A
GENDA
Review of the SPR Template
Developing Estimates of Core Capabilities
and Capability Change Descriptions
Developing Capability Gap Descriptions
49
SPR O
VERVIEW
COGs estimate current capabilities for each Core Capability based on the
Capability Target they developed in the THIRA, using the same
standardized format
Provide a brief description of any significant capability changes (gains,
losses, key sustainment activities) that may have occurred in the region in
the last year
COGs describe gaps for each Core Capability using relevant POETE
elements
Capability gap statements should address gaps related to any areas of the
Core Capability, and should not be limited to areas specified in the
Capability Targets
50
The Capability Gap descriptions in the SPR are the most
important aspect of this planning process.
SPR C
APABILITY
A
SSESSMENT
51
SPR C
APABILITY
A
SSESSMENT
52
SPR C
APABILITY
A
SSESSMENT
53
SPR C
APABILITY
A
SSESSMENT
54
SPR C
APABILITY
A
SSESSMENT
Points to consider:
•
Cut and paste the Capability Target statement from the
THIRA
•
It’s fine for there to be no difference between the Capability
Target and the Estimate of Current Capability, if that’s the
appropriate answer
•
Even if there is no gap between the Capability Target and
the Estimate of Current Capability, you should describe
Capability Gaps in the next section
•
Gaps could include sustainment needs or address aspects
of the Core Capability not covered in the Capability Target
56
T
HE
POETE M
ETHODOLOGY
:
P
LANS
What plans address this core capability?
Are there plans or annexes addressing this core capability that
should be developed? (EOP or EMP annexes?)
Are there plans or annexes addressing this core capability that
should be updated?
Are there required changes to a plan or its annexes resulting from
an exercise or emergency?
Has new equipment/technology been introduced requiring plan
revisions?
Have new policies, guidance or regulations been introduced that
cause plan revisions or updates?
Should changes to one plan or annex cause revisions in another?
57
T
HE
POETE M
ETHODOLOGY
:
O
RGANIZATION
What organizational changes are needed to eliminate or
significantly reduce the gap in capabilities?
Has a reorganization of a primary or supporting agency
occurred that impacts the capability target?
Have new teams or organizational positions been introduced
relevant to this core capability?
Are new teams or specific individual positions required?
Have new policies, guidance or regulations been introduced
that cause organizational changes that impact this core
capability?
58
T
HE
POETE M
ETHODOLOGY
:
E
QUIPMENT
Review NIMS Resource Typing
What equipment is needed to eliminate or
significantly reduce the gap in capabilities?
Is there a need for new or more equipment?
Are there significant items of equipment near
or at the end of its normal expected span of
use?
Have new plans been introduced that require
additional or new equipment capabilities?
59
T
HE
POETE M
ETHODOLOGY
:
T
RAINING
What training is needed to eliminate or significantly reduce the
gap in capabilities? Course title? Number of personnel to be
trained?
Has new equipment been introduced that requires initial
training?
Have new concepts or capabilities been introduced that
require additional training?
Has the scope of current or future operations changed or
expanded so as to require additional training?
Have After Action Reviews and Improvement Plans from
exercises or real world events shown a need for focused
training relevant to this core capability?
60
T
HE
POETE M
ETHODOLOGY
:
E
XERCISES
What exercises are needed to eliminate or significantly reduce the
gap in capabilities? Discussion-based? Operations-based?
Are there new plans that require validation through exercises?
Is there a need for drills to increase readiness and preparation?
Have leaders been trained through exercises? Workshops?
Tabletop Exercises?
Has new equipment been introduced that requires drills or functional
exercises?
Do other jurisdictions, agencies, private sector entities and/or
functional assets need to participate in joint exercises to ensure
effectiveness?
61
SPR C
APABILITY
G
APS
62
SPR C
APABILITY
G
APS
63
(
P
l
a
n
n
i
n
g
C
o
r
e
C
a
p
a
b
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l
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y
)
SPR C
APABILITY
G
APS
64
(
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SPR C
APABILITY
G
APS
65
(
C
o
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SPR C
APABILITY
G
APS
66
(
M
a
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SPR C
APABILITY
G
APS
67
Points to consider:
•
Capability Gaps do not have to be directly related to the issues
addressed in the Capability Target language – list any Capability
Gaps relevant to the Core Capability being addressed
•
Wherever possible, be specific about what jurisdictions have
capability gaps, need equipment, need personnel, etc.
•
Gap descriptions should be specific enough to logically lead to
action items that would reduce gaps
•
In the capability change description section, the narrative should
be different than last year’s entry, as you should focus narrowly
on what has happened over the past year
2019 SPR E
XAMPLES
: A
SSESS
C
APABILITIES
68
2019 SPR E
XAMPLES
: A
SSESS
C
APABILITIES
69
2019 SPR E
XAMPLES
: A
SSESS
C
APABILITIES
70
2019 SPR E
XAMPLES
: C
APABILITY
GAPS
71
2019 SPR E
XAMPLES
: C
APABILITY
GAPS
72
2019 SPR E
XAMPLES
: C
APABILITY
GAPS
73
L
UNCH
P
LEASE
B
E
B
ACK
BY
1:30 PM
74
I
MPLEMENTATION
P
LAN
D
EVELOPMENT
A
GENDA
Homeland Security Strategic Plan (HSSP)
Implementation Plan (IP) Overview
Review of the IP Template
IP Section I: Planning Process, Authorities,
Key Personnel
IP Section II: Preparedness Assessment
IP Section III: Concept of Implementation
75
IP O
VERVIEW
I
P
a
p
p
r
o
a
c
h
a
n
d
t
e
m
p
l
a
t
e
h
a
s
n
o
t
c
h
a
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g
e
d
f
r
o
m
p
r
e
v
i
o
u
s
y
e
a
r
s
Establishes implementation tasks with specific performance
measures to be completed by milestones established in the
plan
Serves as a roadmap for COG homeland security
preparedness
Identifies the resources required to implement the plan
Provisions of the IP apply to all aspects of the COG region’s
homeland security activities
All jurisdictions within the COG region share responsibility for
implementing this plan
76
R
EVIEW
OF
THE
IP T
EMPLATE
All tasks should be in POETE charts rather than a separate
paragraph
•
Use the template and instructions
Include summary of overall regional priorities at beginning of
Section III
Focus on specific tasks in the region for the coming year in
POETE charts: what, who, how (resources), when?
77
Intent is to convey a clear sense of the region’s key homeland
security priorities for the coming year and to encourage
regional planning, including key stakeholders, on what tasks
need to be performed to achieve those priorities
IP S
ECTION
I: G
ENERAL
A.
Purpose and Scope
B.
Planning Process
Provide a brief summary of the process used by the COG to develop this year’s annual
HSSP Implementation Plan.
C.
Authorities
Describe the Region’s governance structure and list the major organizations that
participate in implementing this plan
As required and appropriate, COGs may include caveats and explanatory remarks
regarding authorities in this section. For example: “Nothing in this document is
intended to supersede the powers, duties, and responsibilities of the presiding officers
and governing bodies of a political subdivision of the Texas Disaster Act of 1975,
chapter 418, government code.”
D.
Key Personnel
List regional and local personnel with significant responsibilities for developing this plan
and overseeing its implementation.
E.
References
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The COG planning staff coordinated several planning workshops with
participants from local agencies and departments that respond within
the COG region. Throughout the workshops, assessments were
conducted and input from local experts was gathered to complete the
regional Threats and Hazards Identification and Risk Assessment
(THIRA). Based on the THIRA results, a gap analysis was completed to
submit information for the State Preparedness Report (SPR). With the
specific gaps identified, goals and objectives were selected by the COG
Homeland Security Advisory Committee (HSAC) to support statewide
homeland security strategic goals and objectives. Recent
accomplishments, performance measures, and implementation tasks
were completed to address each regional objective selected as a major
priority for the COG region.”
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“Annually, the COG’s Homeland Security Department in collaboration with its Homeland
Security Task Force (HSTF) and other interested parties prepares the Threat Hazard
Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) and the State Preparedness Report (SPR), which
are submitted to the state as contribution into the Texas Homeland Security Strategic Plan. The
COG’s outreach strategy to ‘interested parties’ in all parts of the region, as well as the HSTF,
allows for input from a wide spectrum of public safety and emergency preparedness
disciplines. It further highlights how regional collaboration continues to be a ‘best practice’ for
the COG to build preparedness levels across the core capabilities addressing homeland
security missions.
The collective approach for the THIRA/SPR planning process, in turn, drives this annual
implementation plan submittal, which outlines how regional priorities reflect jurisdictional
priorities, while demonstrating how regional priorities parallel state priorities.
The findings from the THIRA/SPR/IP planning process also inform the update of the COG
HSTF Strategic Plan 2016-2020. Taking the comprehensive planning process into
consideration, the Homeland Security Strategic Directions Committee prepares, the HSTF
recommends, and the COG Executive Committee adopts updates into a rolling five-year
strategic plan that establishes the priorities for homeland security preparedness and funding
administered by the COG.”
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A.
Regional Overview
Provide a summary of the region, including a general discussion (not a detailed listing) of critical
infrastructure and key resources
Highlight any trends (demographic changes, business developments, budget changes, technological
advancements, etc.) that impact the overall homeland security challenges faced by the region
Specific threats and hazards should be discussed in the next section
B.
Threats and Hazards
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Highlight
Highlight
natural, technological, and human-caused threats and hazards of particular concern to the
region
Highlight any recent trends in threats and hazards (organized crime, weather patterns, potential
terrorism cases, etc.)
Threats and hazards should be discussed in terms of risk (likelihood and consequence)
C.
Capability Assessment
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Highlight significant insights regarding gaps in core capabilities related to targets established in the
THIRA
This section should convey a general sense of the region’s strengths and what the region needs most
in terms of core capabilities
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Overview
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In Parts B-F, COGs provide details on implementing the Objectives in the Texas Homeland Security
Strategic Plan during the next year.
COGs should address the following three areas for each Objective they cover:
a.
Recent Accomplishments
. Briefly list the region’s accomplishments in achieving the HSSP Objective
during the past year, using bullet comments. As appropriate, discuss any planned activities that were
not implemented.
b.
Performance Measures
. List performance measures that will be used to evaluate progress in
implementing HSSP Objectives. Performance measures should be region-specific. A small number
of measures that will actually be tracked is preferable to a longer list of more general measures.
Performance measures may be Output or Outcome measures; they should be specific, measurable,
and achievable.
c.
Implementation Tasks
. This section should be addressed through a chart organized by Planning,
Organization, Equipment, Training, and Exercise (POETE) that includes the Region’s implementation
tasks, responsibilities, required resources (including cost and funding source(s)), and planned
completion date or major milestone date. If a POETE element is not applicable, nothing should be
listed under it.
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Wh
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Lessons learned?
What are your key concerns and challenges in
2020?
What are some strategies for success in 2020?
How can WE help YOU?
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2020 W
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COG Due Dates:
•
THIRA and SPR: November 30, 2020
•
Implementation Plans: December 31, 2020
As always, the Texas Office of Homeland
Security is available to assist as needed
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Brandon Gentry
Strategic Planner
Texas Office of Homeland Security
brandon.gentry@dps.texas.gov
512.424.0031(O)
512.815.6985 (C)
Mike George
Senior Strategic Planner
Texas Office of Homeland Security
mike.george@dps.texas.gov
512.424.0042 (O)
719.650.0880 (C)
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In July 2020, the Texas Office of Homeland Security conducted a workshop focusing on Homeland Security Strategic Plan Implementation. The agenda included lunch, reviews of IP templates, THIRA and SPR scores, and discussions on best practices amid COVID-19. The workshop aimed to enhance regional planning, identify key risks, and improve preparedness through strategic planning.
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2020 T 2020 TEXAS G GOVERNMENTS D DEVELOPMENT EXAS C COUNCILS OUNCILS OF THIRA / SPR / IP EVELOPMENT W WORKSHOP OF OVERNMENTS THIRA / SPR / IP ORKSHOP July 9, 2020 Texas Office of Homeland Security 1
WELCOME Introductions Administrative Issues Agenda Review 2
WORKSHOP AGENDA 12:00 PM 1:30 PM: LUNCH Homeland Security Strategic Plan (HSSP) Implementation Plan (IP) Overview Review of the IP Template IP: Section I (Planning Process, Authorities, Key Personnel) IP: Section II (Preparedness Assessment) IP: Section III (Concept of Implementation) IP: Examples from 2019 Soliciting Input from Regional Partners: Best Practices and Strategies in the Context of COVID-19 9:00 AM: Welcome, Introductions, and Administrative Issues Review of 2019 THIRA / SPR / IP Scores Discussion of 2019 THIRA / SPR / IP Process Feedback Review of the THIRA Template and Approach THIRA: Developing Scenarios, Estimated Impacts, and Capability Targets THIRA: Examples from 2019 Review of the SPR Template and Approach ADJOURN by 4:00 PM SPR: Developing Estimates of Core Capabilities, Capability Change Descriptions, and Capability Gap Descriptions SPR: Examples from 2019 3
WORKSHOP PURPOSE Review the Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) and Stakeholder Preparedness Review (SPR) format and approach Establish a solid foundation for each COG s THIRA Provide information and clarify requirements for development and submission of the SPR by COGs Provide information on the format and creation of the annual Homeland Security Strategic Plan Implementation Plan (IP) submitted by COGs Discuss the way forward in 2020 4
THIRA / SPR / IP: WHY WE DO THIS Promotes routine, recurring homeland security planning at the regional level in order to ensure coordination among stakeholders, improve understanding of risks and gaps, and focus efforts to enhance preparedness Strengthens strategic planning by identifying the threats and hazards with the greatest impacts to communities Helps to summarize capability gaps in the region and identify needed resources Provides framework for regional and local gap mitigation activities Provides summaries to inform regional SHSP grant prioritization meetings Enhances SHSP grant applications 5
THE THIRA, SPR, AND IP PROCESS During the THIRA process, COGs develop their Capability Targets for each of the 32 Core Capabilities in the National Preparedness Goal. In the SPR, COGs state their current capability levels, and provide a narrative description of capability gaps. COGs use THIRA and SPR data to help develop the HSSPImplementation Plan, which identifies priority tasks that have clear performance measures, completion milestones, and required resources. 6
Review of 2019 THIRA / SPR / IP Scores 7
2019 THIRA / SPR / IP SCORES Average Scores THIRA: 14.94 / 15 SPR: 12.38 / 15 IP: 13.31 / 15 8
2019 THIRA / SPR SCORES VS. 2018 THIRA / SPR SCORES 9
TOTAL 2019 SCORES Average Total 2019 Score: 40.63 / 45 10
TOTAL 2019 SCORESVS. TOTAL 2018 SCORES Average Total 2019 Score: 40.63 / 45 Average Total 2018 Score: 40.07 / 44 11
2019 FEEDBACK REVIEW What were the clearest benefits, if any, of the 2019 THIRA / SPR methodology? The ability to identify which threat and/or hazard challenges the region was a great addition that was useful in facilitating discussion. The new THIRA really streamlined the plan and removed repetitive fillers and inserted some useful stats. These stats are useful in the applications for not just Homeland Security but other grant programs. THIRA Standard Impact Estimates provided a clearer picture of each entity s role in responding to a terrorist, threat, or hazard incident. More specific information requested/required made stakeholders delve into reality. In the SPR, Capability levels (sustained, increased, and decreased) heightened each entity s awareness of their capability level and provided a channel to reflect on accomplishments as well as serving as a tool to alert the challenges needing to be addressed to increase their level. Although quite often, they weren t fully applicable to our region, the fill-in-the-blank target capabilities made the process much easier. That really cut down on the amount of thought that might otherwise be required to develop the statements. 13
2019 FEEDBACK REVIEW What were the greatest difficulties of the 2019 THIRA / SPR methodology? A lot more work and time to complete. The greatest difficulties is always stakeholder participation. When we started this process years ago it was said to influence funding to the region. Now after several years many stakeholders see it as a check the box. Luckily within our region we are seeing a lot of new faces. They don t see these as just check the box therefore they are willing to share their knowledge and opinions. Although quite often, they weren t fully applicable to our region, the fill-in-the-blank target capabilities made the process much easier. That really cut down on the amount of thought that might otherwise be required to develop the statements. Additional comments I realize there s value to using standard language for the Capability Targets. That helps to ensure that all the required elements are found in each statement. That also allows for the appearance of a statewide focus on the same issues coming at the same time from all 24 COGs. But, that also allows us to not really have to think too hard about what each core capability should mean to our respective regions. As far as regional preparedness planning goes, I think there s some value to grappling with those capabilities in order to fully understand how they should and could benefit our regions. 14
THIRA DEVELOPMENT AGENDA Review of the THIRA Template Developing Scenarios Developing Estimated Impacts Developing Capability Targets 16
DEVELOPING SCENARIOS For their 2020 submission, each COG will use at least four threat and hazard scenarios, to include at least: One natural hazard One technological hazard One human-caused threat FEMA Guidance Exclude threats and hazards with only minor impacts, regardless of likelihood Consider threats and hazards resulting in large scale disasters or catastrophic incidents 17
DEVELOPING SCENARIOS Provide a plausible, worst-case scenario description of those threats and hazards that could impact your jurisdiction If you have planned and prepared for the most plausible worst- case threats, you can handle the lesser events Longer is not better Be concise One or two paragraphs is usually sufficient Avoid historical scenarios taken from an All-Hazards Mitigation Plan Demographics, technology, and areas change over time, and scenarios should account for this Scenario impacts are no longer directly tried to Capability Targets Scenario impacts provide context and guidance for Capability Target development 18
DEVELOPING SCENARIOS Factors to consider: Time Day of the Week Season Location Address or latitude/longitude Proximity to residential, coastal, or industrial areas Conditions Wind Speed Wind Direction Humidity Multiple Events? Hazardous Material Release Agent Amount and Rate of Release 19
SCENARIO MODELING TOOLS Tool Purpose Link Hazus Estimating potential losses from earthquakes, floods, and hurricanes, and visualizing the effects of such hazards https://www.fema.gov/hazus HURREVAC Assist the local emergency manager in determining the most prudent evacuation decision time and the potential for significant storm effects such as wind and storm surge http://www.hurrevac.com/ SLOSH Estimate storm surge heights resulting from historical, hypothetical, or predicted hurricanes by taking into account the atmospheric pressure, size, forward speed, and track data https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/sl osh.php Geospatial Information Infrastructure Provides a platform for shared and trusted geospatial data, services, and applications for use by the Homeland Security community https://gii.dhs.gov/gii/home/ ALOHA / CAMEO Integrates a chemical database and a method to manage the data, an air dispersion model, and a mapping capability to plan for and respond to chemical emergencies https://www.epa.gov/cameo 20
THREAT/HAZARD SCENARIOSAND ESTIMATED IMPACTS You can use the same threat and hazard scenarios from previous THIRA documents COGs fill in numbers for relevant standardized impacts (fatalities, people requiring evacuation, people requiring shelter, etc.) for each threat/hazard scenario, using a standardized impact table 21
THREAT/HAZARD SCENARIOSAND ESTIMATED IMPACTS Category Threat/Hazard Scenario Name Terrorism? Choose an item. Choose an item. Scenario Description 22
THREAT/HAZARD SCENARIOSAND ESTIMATED IMPACTS Standardized Impact Estimates (You have the option to include additional impacts, as needed) Impact Category Estimate Impact Category Estimate Partner Organizations Involved In Incident Management Fatalities People Requiring Medical Care Customers (Without Power Service) People Requiring Rescue Customers (Without Water Service) People Requiring Evacuation Customers (Without Communication) Exposed Individuals (Hazmat-Related Incidents) People With Access And Functional Needs (AFN) Affected Structure Fires Miles Of Road Affected Affected Healthcare Facilities And Social Service Organizations Damaged Natural And Cultural Resources And Historic Properties People With Limited English Proficiency Affected People Requiring Food and Water People Requiring Long-Term Housing Businesses Closed Due To The Incident Animals Requiring Shelter, Food, And Water People Requiring Shelter Jurisdictions Affected 23
THREAT/HAZARD SCENARIOSAND ESTIMATED IMPACTS Category Threat/Hazard Scenario Name Terrorism? Technological HAZMAT No Scenario Description At 2:00 PM on a Tuesday, a train carrying liquid chlorine derails in a mixed commercial-residential area. A 90-ton railcar ruptures, spilling approximately 40 tons of chlorine into the surrounding area through a six-foot-wide hole. The liquid chlorine quickly turns to gas and rises into the atmosphere. It is a partly cloudy day, with a temperature of 82 degrees Fahrenheit and 70% humidity. Winds are out of the northwest at 9 mph. 24
THREAT/HAZARD SCENARIOSAND ESTIMATED IMPACTS Standardized Impact Estimates Impact Category Estimate Impact Category Estimate Partner Organizations Involved In Incident Management Fatalities 10 8 N/A People Requiring Medical Care 150 Customers (Without Power Service) N/A People Requiring Rescue 50 Customers (Without Water Service) N/A People Requiring Evacuation 4,000 Customers (Without Communication) N/A Exposed Individuals (Hazmat-Related Incidents) 1,500 Structure Fires People With Access And Functional Needs (AFN) Affected 350 Miles Of Road Affected 10 Affected Healthcare Facilities And Social Service Organizations People With Limited English Proficiency Affected 75 3 Damaged Natural And Cultural Resources And Historic Properties People Requiring Food and Water 2,000 N/A People Requiring Long-Term Housing N/A Businesses Closed Due To The Incident 17 Animals Requiring Shelter, Food, And Water People Requiring Shelter 2,000 N/A Jurisdictions Affected 2 25
THREAT/HAZARD SCENARIOSAND ESTIMATED IMPACTS Category Threat/Hazard Scenario Name Terrorism? Human Caused Complex Coordinated Terrorist Attack Yes Scenario Description On a Friday night in October, citizens crowd into an 8,000-seat high school stadium to watch the Bayville football team face off against their district rivals. It s partly cloudy, with a temperature of 70 degrees Fahrenheit and 50% humidity. Approximately 10 minutes before the scheduled kickoff, an improvised explosive device (IED) concealed in a trashcan near a concessions stand detonates, killing five people instantly and injuring over 20 more. Panic ensues as citizens rush towards the stadium exits, resulting in additional injuries. As the crowd exits the stadium, armed gunmen posted in the parking lot open fire with automatic rifles. 26
THREAT/HAZARD SCENARIOSAND ESTIMATED IMPACTS Standardized Impact Estimates Impact Category Estimate Impact Category Estimate Partner Organizations Involved In Incident Management Fatalities 50 5 People Requiring Medical Care 100 Customers (Without Power Service) N/A N/A People Requiring Rescue 8000 Customers (Without Water Service) N/A People Requiring Evacuation 8000 Customers (Without Communication) N/A Exposed Individuals (Hazmat-Related Incidents) People With Access And Functional Needs (AFN) Affected N/A Structure Fires N/A 200 Miles Of Road Affected Affected Healthcare Facilities And Social Service Organizations People With Limited English Proficiency Affected 200 3 Damaged Natural And Cultural Resources And Historic Properties People Requiring Food and Water N/A N/A People Requiring Long-Term Housing N/A Businesses Closed Due To The Incident Animals Requiring Shelter, Food, And Water N/A People Requiring Shelter N/A N/A Jurisdictions Affected 1 27
THREAT/HAZARD SCENARIOSAND ESTIMATED IMPACTS Category Threat/Hazard Scenario Name Terrorism? Natural Tornado No Scenario Description During the afternoon and evening hours of April 24, a line of severe thunderstorms develops, impacting areas throughout the region. Baseball-size hail is reported. Homes and businesses along the state highway receive significant damage. Several towns are severely impacted. Strong downburst winds damage trees and bring down power lines in and around the county seat, as well as across the region. Over 15,000 customers are without power. On the evening of April 26, a tornado outbreak occurs in the region. A potent storm system brings severe weather and several tornadoes. Early in the morning of April 27, an EF-4 tornado strikes Bayville. Several fatalities are reported with most coming from a multi-car incident on the state highway. Five tornadoes are confirmed over the course of the event, killing 8, injuring over 150 and creating 500,000 cubic yards of debris. Over 100,000 customers are without power across the region. 28
THREAT/HAZARD SCENARIOSAND ESTIMATED IMPACTS Standardized Impact Estimates Estimate Impact Category Impact Category Partner Organizations Involved In Incident Management Customers (Without Power Service) Customers (Without Water Service) Customers (Without Communication) Structure Fires Estimate Fatalities People Requiring Medical Care People Requiring Rescue 12 160 30 8 115,000 0 People Requiring Evacuation Exposed Individuals (Hazmat-Related Incidents) People With Access And Functional Needs (AFN) Affected 15 N/A 50,000 0 1200 Miles Of Road Affected Affected Healthcare Facilities And Social Service Organizations Damaged Natural And Cultural Resources And Historic Properties Businesses Closed Due To The Incident Animals Requiring Shelter, Food, And Water 55 People With Limited English Proficiency Affected 750 10 People Requiring Food and Water 250 0 People Requiring Long-Term Housing 65 35 People Requiring Shelter Jurisdictions Affected 175 4 50 29
THREAT/HAZARD SCENARIOSAND ESTIMATED IMPACTS Points to consider: Impact numbers can be based on real-world events, SME input, stakeholder discussions, recent exercises, existing plans, etc. The numbers aren t expected to be 100% correct. Rather, they should be a reasonable best estimate 30
CAPABILITY TARGET STATEMENTS Target statements are standardized COGs fill in the blanks for each standardized Capability Target statement based on what the region reasonably expects to achieve in the next 3-5 years COGs briefly explain the context/logic behind the Capability Target numbers 31
CAPABILITY TARGET STATEMENTS Planning Capability Target Within every [specify timeframe] update all emergency operations plans that define the roles and responsibilities of [insert number] partner organizations involved in incident management across [insert number] jurisdictions affected, and the sequence and scope of tasks needed to prevent, protect, mitigate, respond to, and recover from events. Capability Target Context Provide a brief paragraphexplaining the logic behind the numbers used in the Capability Target. Numbers could be derived from: Real world events Current plans / capabilities / resources / personnel Geographic area within the region Worst case or most likely scenarios Limitations on further capability development Other factors Which of your identified threats and hazards most challenges the region s ability to achieve this capability target? 32
CAPABILITY TARGET STATEMENTS Planning Capability Target Within every 5 years update all emergency operations plans that define the roles and responsibilities of 25 partner organizations involved in incident management across 15 jurisdictions affected, and the sequence and scope of tasks needed to prevent, protect, mitigate, respond to, and recover from events. Capability Target Context Our region includes 15 jurisdictions, with 25 partner organizations typically involved in emergency and disaster planning and response, including city and county law enforcement agencies; city and county emergency management offices; public health facilities; state law enforcement and emergency management agencies; utilities; and private sector partners. TDEM requires that all Emergency Operations Plans are reviewed and updated every 5 years. Which of your identified threats and hazards most challenges the region s ability to achieve this capability target? HAZMAT 33
CAPABILITY TARGET STATEMENTS Intelligence and Information Sharing Capability Target Within 2 hours of the identification or notification of a credible threat, identify/analyze local context of the threat for the respective area of responsibility, and facilitate the sharing of threat information with 10 priority intelligence stakeholder agencies/entities in accordance with the intelligence cycle, and all dissemination protocols. Capability Target Context During a recent real-world event regarding an active shooter threat at one of our regional middle schools, we needed to share credible threat intelligence with local, county, state, and federal law enforcement and intelligence partners in order to enhance the security posture and identify the potential threat. Similarly, a bomb threat against an airport in our region required regional threat intelligence and information sharing. Which of your identified threats and hazards most challenges the region s ability to achieve this capability target? Complex Coordinated Terrorist Attack 34
CAPABILITY TARGET STATEMENTS Community Resilience Capability Target Every 12 months, conduct 4 outreach events or activities to increase awareness of locally significant threats and hazards to help the residents be more prepared to prevent, protect against, mitigate, respond to, and recover from those events. Capability Target Context Historically, the region faces significant weather-related hazards, such as tornadoes, floods, and wildfires, and our citizens need to be better prepared to face and recover from these threats. Local and regional law enforcement and emergency response agencies need to conduct quarterly outreach activities to raise regional awareness of these threats. Which of your identified threats and hazards most challenges the region s ability to achieve this capability target? Tornado 35
CAPABILITY TARGET STATEMENTS Mass Care Services Capability Target Within 24 hours of an incident, provide emergency sheltering, food, and water for 2,000 people requiring shelter and 2,000 people requiring food and water, including 350 people with access and functional needs (requiring accessible shelter) and 350 people with access and functional needs (requiring food and water), and 100 animals requiring shelter, food, and water. Maintain for 5 days. Within 1 week of an incident, move 500 people requiring temporary, non-congregate housing, including 50 people with access and functional needs (requiring accessible, temporary, non- congregate housing), from congregate care to temporary housing. Capability Target Context Given recent real-world events in the region including a major HAZMAT spill in May 2018 and widespread flooding in April 2019 -- and elsewhere in the state, as well as exercises and workshops conducted in the last 24 months, the above Capability Target represents the mass care capabilities the region aims to build to in the next 3-5 years. The region s PAFN percentage estimate for all impacts and targets is 17.5% (coordinated with HHSC). Which of your identified threats and hazards most challenges the region s ability to achieve this capability target? HAZMAT 36
CAPABILITY TARGET STATEMENTS Points to consider: Capability Target statements are standardized; do not change the language that s been provided COGs only complete one standardized Capability Target statement per Core Capability The targets should be reasonable and justifiable, based on stakeholder experience, subject matter expertise, real world incidents, exercise, plans, and other sources Intent is to require COG THIRA updates every 3 years 37
2019 THIRA EXAMPLES: SCENARIOAND IMPACT ESTIMATES 38
2019 THIRA EXAMPLES: SCENARIOAND IMPACT ESTIMATES 39
2019 THIRA EXAMPLES: SCENARIOAND IMPACT ESTIMATES 40
2019 THIRA EXAMPLES: SCENARIOAND IMPACT ESTIMATES 41
2019 THIRA EXAMPLES: SCENARIOAND IMPACT ESTIMATES 42
2019 THIRA EXAMPLES: SCENARIOAND IMPACT ESTIMATES 43
2019 THIRA EXAMPLES: CAPABILITY TARGETS 44
2019 THIRA EXAMPLES: CAPABILITY TARGETS 45
2019 THIRA EXAMPLES: CAPABILITY TARGETS 46
2019 THIRA EXAMPLES: CAPABILITY TARGETS 47
SPR DEVELOPMENT AGENDA Review of the SPR Template Developing Estimates of Core Capabilities and Capability Change Descriptions Developing Capability Gap Descriptions 49
SPR OVERVIEW COGs estimate current capabilities for each Core Capability based on the Capability Target they developed in the THIRA, using the same standardized format Provide a brief description of any significant capability changes (gains, losses, key sustainment activities) that may have occurred in the region in the last year COGs describe gaps for each Core Capability using relevant POETE elements Capability gap statements should address gaps related to any areas of the Core Capability, and should not be limited to areas specified in the Capability Targets The Capability Gap descriptions in the SPR are the most important aspect of this planning process. 50
