Sustainable Mitigation Scenarios and Co-benefits for Peru's Long-Term Development
Maria Elena Gutierrez, a Research Coordinator, presented research findings on long-term mitigation scenarios in Peru, including NAMA initiatives, INDC progress, and private sector contributions. The PLANCC model outlined various mitigation scenarios, with the Sustainable Scenario being recommended. The GDP projections in the Sustainable Scenario show incremental growth from 2022 to 2050. Additionally, the PlanCC highlighted co-benefits such as improved welfare, urban population growth, waste management enhancements, and transport efficiency in Lima.
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Maria Elena Gutierrez Research Coordinator mgutierrez@libelula.com.pe
CONTENT 1.Long term mitigation scenarios for peru 2.NAMA initiatives in Peru 3.INDC in Peru 4.Private initiatives on mitigation
PLANCC: Long Term Mitigation Scenarios 2050 MtCO2eq 350.00 BAU 9,932 MM 300.00 Fast Sc. 10% 250.00 Savings Sc. 20% 200.00 Sustainable Sc. 41% 150.00 100.00 RBS Sc. 50.00 0.00 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Sustainable Scenario was recommended
Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) BAU Projections General Equilibrium Model Mitigation Scenarios Matriz IO Matrix, National Accounts GDP and Population Projection Model Structure Emission Reductions Emission Projectios SAM CGE Results Calibration Socio economic Impacts Emission Inventory Mitigation Measures Emissions BAU Scenario replica Bottom-up and top-down methodologies SAM 2007 with emissions by sector Quasi-dynamic CGE including LULUCF sector Scenarios
GDP in the Long Term sustainable In the Sustainable Scenario, the GDP would rise annually between 0.3% and 0.8% in addition to BAU projection from the year 2022 until 2050.
PlanCC: COBENEFITS Welfare improved of population in the long term 2050 Urban population will increase by 60% while their solid waste will increase in 180% Decrease of travel time in urban transport in Lima The appropriate disposal of solid waste will increase from 38.8% to 51% in the sustainable scenario
PlanCC and NAMAS: Comparability NAMAS and other initiatives PLANCC COMPARABILITY PlanCC comprise wide information about different sectors, with emissions and costs estimated annually until 2050 . Reference for comparison/validation of similar initiatives, e.g. NAMAs. Construction Sector: Wastewater mitigation options (NAMA) vs PlanCC BAU Waste Sector: Emission comparison for use of IPCC 2006 guidelines (NAMA) vs IPCC 1996 guidelines (PlanCC) Forestry Sector: Deforestation reference baseline
2. NAMAS INITIATIVES Sector Initiative Executor Status Person responsible formally defined In accordance with sectoral goals Sustainable Construction NAMA Ministry of Housing and Construction Housing Proposal Yes High Sustainable Buildings NAMA Ministry of Housing and Construction Housing Proposal Yes High Ministry of Production Industry Bricks Production NAMA Design Yes High Ministry of Production Industry Cement NAMA Concept Yes High Ministry of Production Industry Iron and Steel NAMA Concept No High Ministry of Energy and Mines Energy Bioenergy NAMA Proposal Yes High Energy Generation and End Use Ministry of Energy and Mines Energy Design Yes High
2. IDENTIFIED NAMAS (cont.) Person responsible formally defined Sector Initiative Executor Status In accordance with sectoral goals Transport NAMA - Transfer II Project Ministry of Transport and Communications Negotiation (Pre implementaction) Transport Yes High Agriculture Coffee NAMA Ministry of Agriculture Concept Yes High Environment Waste NAMA Ministry of Environment Design Yes High Agriculture Cacao NAMA Ministry of Agriculture Concept No High Agriculture Palm NAMA Ministry of Agriculture Concept No High Agriculture Livestock NAMA Ministry of Agriculture Concept No High
3. INDC IN PERU Considering PlanCC outputs, a new process started in July 2014 in order to propose a national INDCs on mitigation. New data was considered, including NAMA initiatives
3. INDC IN PERU 300 BAU 1 E1 4% 250 E2 14% 200 Emisiones (MtCO2) E3 31% E4 42% 150 100 50 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Ministry of Environment released a INDC proposal for public consultation (July 2015) 71 mitigation options were taken from PlanCC. 11 additional mitigation options were included.
4. PRIVATE INITIATIVES ON MITIGATION Climate Corporate Commitment is a private initiative that aims to build a community of enterprises with commitment on climate change action. The initiative includes a platform based on a voluntary reporting system that allows to identify how many performing actions toward a low-carbon development, who they are, and what they are doing. enterprises are www.7c.com.pe
