Status of COSMO-ICON Integrated Forecasting System (ICON-IT) Analysis Comparison

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Ensemble Data Assimilation system implemented in ICON-IT for pre-operational runs using IFS LBC and ICON-KENDA DA cycle. Observations such as RAOB, PILOT, SYNOP, SHIP, BUOY, Wind Profilers/Radars, etc., are assimilated. Analysis comparison with COSMO-IT includes statistical observations from May to August 2020.

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  1. Status of Status of COSMO/ COSMO/ ICON @ @COMET COMET ICON- -KENDA KENDA Francesca Marcucci, Lucio Torrisi, Valerio Cardinali

  2. Pre-operational ICON-IT run (2.2km/65vl) with IFS LBC and ICON-KENDA DA cycle ICON-IT designed similar to COSMO-IT (same namelist as ICON-D2) Last version of ICON code ( icon-nwp branch) (1. Daniel s modification to manage the use of FG as BC in IAU) Last version of KENDA code (same namelist as KENDA-ICON-D2) Ecflow suite implemented: 1hour KENDA cycle (40 members) with IFS BC pre-operational since 14 february 2020 Remap of LBC on the ICON-IT domain (EPS and HRES IFS-ECMWF) OPE: init_mode=5 (IAU) ICON background ens. (fof files production) COLD START: init_mode=2 (IFS AN) KENDA-ICON analysis (ingested obs: temp,synop,local,ship,buoy,wprof,ascat,amdar,modes to be monitored: AMSUA,MHS,ATMS radiances) Long model run (up to 48h) at 00/12UTC

  3. Ensemble Data Assimilation: Observations RAOB (also descent), PILOT, SYNOP, SHIP, BUOY, Wind Profilers/Radars, AMDAR-AIREP, Mode-S, Meteosat AMV, Metop scatt. winds, NOAA/Metop AMSUA/MHS and NPP ATMS radiances 1h cycle 2.2 km 65 v.l. 40+1 m. 1h LETKF Boundary Conditions (HRES, ENS) Deterministic Analysis Ensemble Analysis 2.2 km 65 v.l. 20 m. 2.2 km 65 v.l. To be implemented with the GPU version explicit convection ICON-IT EPS ICON-IT Long run up to +48h Ensemble Prediction System: Local Area Modeling:

  4. OBS INCREMENTS STATISTICS 1st may 25th aug 2020 ICON-IT vs COSMO-IT

  5. ICON-IT: O - fg vsO - an stdv U nobs mean U stdv RH nobs RH mean RH stdv T nobs mean T T E M P stdv U nobs mean U stdv RH nobs RH mean RH stdv T nobs mean T AIRCRAFT+MODES

  6. ICON-IT: O - fg vsO - an stdv U nobs stdv U mean U nobs mean U A M V WPROF stdv T nobs mean T stdv T stdv T nobs nobs mean T mean T M H S A M S U A T M S

  7. O - AN: Cosmo-it vsIcon-it stdv U stdv U mean U mean U stdv T mean T stdv RH mean RH A M V T E M P stdv U stdv U mean U mean U stdv T mean T stdv RH mean RH WPROF AIRCRAFT+MODES

  8. O - FG: Cosmo-it vsIcon-it stdv U stdv U mean U mean U stdv T mean T stdv RH mean RH A M V T E M P stdv U stdv U mean U mean U stdv T mean T stdv RH mean RH WPROF AIRCRAFT+MODES

  9. SPREAD: Cosmo-it vsIcon-it T_fg U_fg T_an RH_an U_an RH_fg U_fg U_an T E M P A M V T_fg U_fg RH_fg T_an U_an RH_an U_fg U_an WPROF AIRCRAFT+MODES

  10. VERIFICATION RESULTS 1st may 25th aug 2020 ICON-IT vs COSMO-IT

  11. Upper-air Temperature

  12. Upper-air wind

  13. Upper-air Relative Humidity

  14. Surface parameters: bias

  15. Surface parameters: rmse

  16. GNSS ZPD MONITORING (1-31 August 2020) &STD_OBS !-------------------------- ! for GPSGB bias correction !-------------------------- n_required = 48 !biascor_mode = 2 ! bias correction: 0=no, 1=update-only, ! 2=fg, 3=ana, 4=VarBC ! default value = 2 bc_fallback = F / &biascor fallback = F bc_files = 'bias_GPSGB.202009022300' verbose = 2 / &REPORT type='GPSGB' use = 'passive' / !------ ! GPSGB !------ &THINNING comment = 'GPSGB thinning obstype = 'GPSGB' state = 'passive' rule3 = 'quality' ! higher priority for 'quality' rule4 = 'time' ! lower priority for 'time' ni = 256 ! ca 30 km horizontal distance / LAMPBKG LAMPMETO LAMPMTGH LAMPMTRH Very low statistics!!! ( 50 vs 1200) VEN1MTRH VEN1BKG

  17. Conclusions ICON-IT runs pre-operationally @2.2 km over Italian domain since feb 2020 Fcst products are daily provided (00,12UTC) to our operational forecast room Forecasters are quite satisfied with ICON model performances but they collected many cases of failure (summer convection not well forecsted) these case have been correctly forecasted by COSMO-IT Beside subjective verfications, the objective verifications show good results except for pmsl (rmse). As no other countries (IFS/ICON-EU IC) have this negative score, could analysis be responsible of this behaviour ? further investigation is needed

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