Simulating the Battle of Thermopylae: Analyzing What-If Scenarios
Accurately simulating the historic Battle of Thermopylae to analyze potential alternative outcomes through the development of a simulation program. The research focuses on comparing counter-factual simulations with historical records to determine key factors that influenced the battle. Programming in Java and Unity, the simulation design adopts a hierarchical approach to model events over the three days of the battle, considering combat systems and historical base stats of the Greek and Persian armies.
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By Josh Wasserman Advisors: Prof. Valerie Barr and Prof. Hans-Friedrich Mueller ACCURATELY SIMULATING ACCURATELY SIMULATING THE BATTLE OF THE BATTLE OF THERMOPYLAE TO ANALYZE THERMOPYLAE TO ANALYZE WHAT WHAT- -IF SCENARIOS IF SCENARIOS
Battle of Thermopylae 480 BCE Second Persian War Stall the Persian army Artemisium Thermopylae Department of History, US Military Academy, West Point
History Greek army (~5,200) v. Persian army (~80,000 - 100,000) Outcome: Greeks are defeated at the Battle of Thermopylae in 3 days Ultimately defeat the Persians as a result
Research Goal Develop an accurate simulation of the Battle of Thermopylae Accurate according to historical record Use this model to simulate What-if scenarios Compare the results of counter-factual simulations with the historical simulation Determine the importance of key factors of the battle
Developing the Simulation Programming in Java and Unity Focus on graphical representation Too many obstacles, inefficient SimPy A process-based discrete-event simulation framework (SimPy)
Simulation Design Hierarchical approach to daily events
Battle Events Day 1: Mountain defense Day 2: Fighting ends early Day 3: Ephialtes s betrayal Greeks retreat Final stand
Combat System Attack and Defense values The Roll Generate a random number between 0 and the attack/defense value Highest value wins Phalanx Persian defense v. Greek attack Persian attack v. Greek defense
Historical Simulation: Greek and Persian Base Stats Greek Soldiers Attack Defense Spartan Greek (other) 9 7 9 7 Persian Soldiers Immortal Persian (other) Attack 4 2 Defense 2 1 Assigning values: Skill Quality of arms and armor
Historical Simulation: Greek and Persian Bonus Skills Greek Bonuses Attack Defense Phalanx +1 +2 Frenzy +2 -1 Broken Weapons -5 -5 Fake Retreat +2 N/A Persian Bonuses Attack Defense Strength in Number +2 N/A Assigning values: Strengths and weaknesses
Results of Historical Simulation Data in table gathered from 50 trials According to Scholars, ~ 20,000 Persians were killed ~ 1,500 Greeks were killed Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Average 168.48 42.06 1345.36 1555.9 Greek Standard Deviation 14.32 8.34 7.38 14.48 Average 9811.72 3804.34 7253.4 20869.46 Persian Standard Deviation 125.06 70.88 18.89 130.32
What-if Ephialtes did not betray the Greeks? Battle did not occur during the Carnea Festival? The Greeks did not choose to make their stand at the Middle Gate ?
What if Ephialtes never betrayed the Greeks? Large group of Greeks would not retreat No final stand Different strategy (randomized) after Day 2 Fatigue becomes a factor
What if Ephialtes never betrayed the Greeks? Data collected from 50 trials Battle lasted 17.6 days on average Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Average 170.34 41.68 178.42 390.44 Greek Standard Deviation 13.88 6.72 17.69 23.15 Average 9823.26 3820.7 9443.92 23087.88 Persian Standard Deviation 126.76 75.47 433.03 446.57
Historical Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 (Final Stand) 1345.36 Total Average 168.48 42.06 1555.9 Greek Standard Deviation 14.32 8.34 7.38 14.48 Average 9811.72 3804.34 7253.4 20869.46 Persian Standard Deviation 125.06 70.88 18.89 130.32 Counter-Factual Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 (No Final Stand) 178.42 Total Average 170.34 41.68 390.44 Greek Standard Deviation 13.88 6.72 17.69 23.15 Average 9823.26 3820.7 9443.92 23087.88 Persian Standard Deviation 126.76 75.47 433.03 446.57
What if the battle was not fought during the Carnea Festival? Add 8,000 10,000 Spartans Remove other Greeks
What if the battle was not fought during the Carnea Festival? Data collected from 50 trials Battle always lasted 4 days, even with a final stand sequence All Greeks are killed by the 4th day Day 1 111.32 12.13 Day 2 27.62 4.69 Day 3 563.22 76.19 Total 702.16 79.61 Average Standard Deviation Average Standard Deviation Greek 9764.68 115.11 3738.78 69.17 42741.36 450.61 56244.82 458.46 Persian
Historical Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 (Final Stand) 1345.36 Total Average 168.48 42.06 1555.9 Greek Standard Deviation 14.32 8.34 7.38 14.48 Average 9811.72 3804.34 7253.4 20869.46 Persian Standard Deviation 125.06 70.88 18.89 130.32 Counter-Factual Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 (Final Stand) 563.22 76.19 Total Average Standard Deviation Average Standard Deviation 111.32 12.13 27.62 4.69 702.16 79.61 Greek 9764.68 115.11 3738.78 69.17 42741.36 450.61 56244.82 458.46 Persian
What if the battle was not fought at the Middle Gate ? 50m wide gap No betrayal Larger Phalanx Persians benefit from strength in number Fatigue becomes a factor
What if the battle was not fought at the Middle Gate ? Data collected from 50 trials Battle lasted 14.86 days on average Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Average 313.74 303.4 172.32 789.46 Greek Standard Deviation 36.06 38.72 41.28 82.21 Average 12469.58 12436.46 7979.66 32885.7 Persian Standard Deviation 138.99 284.79 949.88 1014.21
Historical Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 (Final Stand) 1345.36 Total Average 168.48 42.06 1555.9 Greek Standard Deviation 14.32 8.34 7.38 14.48 Average 9811.72 3804.34 7253.4 20869.46 Persian Standard Deviation 125.06 70.88 18.89 130.32 Counter-Factual Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 (No Final Stand) 172.32 Total Average 313.74 303.4 789.46 Greek Standard Deviation 36.06 38.72 41.28 82.21 Average 12469.58 12436.46 7979.66 32885.7 Persian Standard Deviation 138.99 284.79 949.88 1014.21
Conclusions Ephialtes decided the battle Professional army v. citizen army Position was essential
Future Work Persian retreat The effect of limited supplies Fixing random Persian strategy
