Insights into U.S. Rice Production and Market Trends

Delve into the 2021 Rice Outlook presented at the Southern Outlook Conference, focusing on U.S. rice production, acreage trends, price projections, farm program elections, and more. Explore key statistics such as planted acres, stocks-to-use ratios, and the impact of historical prices on program enrollment decisions.

• Rice Production
• Market Trends
• U.S. Agriculture
• Farm Programs
• Price Projections

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1. 2021 Rice Outlook Southern Outlook Conference September 22, 2021 Brian Mills Delta Research and Extension Center Mississippi State University

2. Outline U.S. Rice Production and Outlook Farm Bill Programs Mississippi Rice Situation

3. Rice Production in US 2.54 million planted acres of long, medium, and short grain rice in US in 2021 Down from 3.04 million in 2020 Majority in long grain rice 2.33 million acres Primarily grown in Arkansas, California, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Texas

4. Rice Production in US *Projected MYA Price

5. U.S. Rice Acreage Over Time 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 Acres 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 Year Long Grain Rice Acres Medium Grain Rice Short Grain Rice

6. Production, Stocks, and Exports 90 200 180 80 Production million cwt 160 70 140 60 Million cwt 120 50 100 40 80 30 60 20 40 10 20 0 0 Year Beginning Stocks Exports Ending Stocks Production *Projected

7. Long Grain Rice Stocks/Use vs MYA Price 25% Stocks-to-Use Ratio vs Marketing Year Average Price for Long Grain Rice $8.00 $7.00 20% Stocks-to-Use Ratio $6.00 $5.00 15% $/bushel $4.00 10% $3.00 $2.00 5% $1.00 0% $0.00 Marketing Year Stocks to Use Ratio MYA Price *Projected

8. Rice Base Acres and Farm Program Election 3.79 million base acres of long grain rice 99.8% of base acres enrolled in PLC program for 2021 Not surprising given historical prices and Reference Price

9. Long Grain MYA Price and Reference Price $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $/bushel $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 Marketing Year Long Grain Rice Reference Price *Projected MYA Price

10. Farm Program Election Going Forward Likely to have majority enrolled in PLC again Given reference price and historical prices, PLC likely to have payments for rice going forward Next Farm Bill?

11. Mississippi Rice Acres 105,000 acres of rice in 2021 Down from 165,000 acres in 2020 Acres have been declining since 2010 Flooding in 2021 had large impact on rice production

12. Mississippi Long Grain Rice Acres 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 Acres 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Year

13. Mississippi Flood Damages 2021 Significant flooding in June FSA collected data on acres that were damaged, destroyed, or prevented from planting MSU Extension estimated crop damages based on reported acres

14. Acres Impacted 69,107 acres impacted Bolivar County most impacted 43,950 damaged acres Estimated 21% yield loss 24,938 destroyed acres Replanted to soybeans

15. Crop Damages Estimated rice losses of $37,797,161 Does not include acres damaged but not reported to FSA Producers had added input costs

16. MSU Rice Cost of Production Estimates 2021 Crop Year MSU produces yearly Enterprise and Planning budgets using MSU Budget Generator Survey Mississippi companies to determine costs of herbicide, pesticide, fertilizer, equipment, etc Multidisciplinary team develops budgets based on common production practices/recommendations

17. MSU Rice Cost of Production Estimates 2021 Crop Year Rice budgets for conventional, conventional hybrid, Clearfield, Fullpage hybrid and Provisia types. Budgets for irrigation systems contour levee, straight levee, straight levee multi-inlet, and zero grade systems. Costs will vary for each producer Available at agecon.msstate.edu

18. Any value in white, Crop 1 has higher returns than Crop 2. Any value that is red, Crop 1 has lower returns than Crop 2.

19. Any value in white, Crop 1 has higher returns than Crop 2. Any value that is red, Crop 1 has lower returns than Crop 2.

20. Any value in white, Crop 1 has higher returns than Crop 2. Any value that is red, Crop 1 has lower returns than Crop 2.

21. Any value in white, Crop 1 has higher returns than Crop 2. Any value that is red, Crop 1 has lower returns than Crop 2.

22. Conclusion 2021 rice acreage lower than last year Prices expected to be up slightly Rice production is not as competitive when corn and soybean prices are high

23. Questions? Brian Mills b.mills@msstate.edu 662-686-3238