Insights from 2012 U.S. Election Research
2012 Election: What We’ve Learned
Carroll J. Doherty
Associate Director
Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
Pew Center on the States – Voting in America 2012
December 10, 2012
cdoherty@pewresearch.org
Dec. 10, 2012
2
www.pewresearch.org
The Electorate – The Most Diverse Ever
•
Changing Composition of the Electorate
Helped Obama
•
Change from 2008 Was Modest – Nonwhites
28% of All Voters, Up From 26%
•
Demographics of Future Elections Will Look
Much Different than Those of Today
Dec. 10, 2012
3
www.pewresearch.org
Obama Lost Whites by 20 Points –
And Won
Based on exit poll data from National Election Pool
Changing Face of the American Voter
Dec. 10, 2012
www.pewresearch.org
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Dramatic Shifts among Young Voters - Now 42% Nonwhite
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Based on exit poll data from the National Election Pool
Dec. 10, 2012
5
www.pewresearch.org
Age Gap in Voting Preferences
Based on exit poll data from the National Election Pool
Dec. 10, 2012
6
www.pewresearch.org
By 2050, A Majority-Minority Nation
Population By Race And Ethnicity, Actual and Projected:
Pew Social and Demographic Trends
Dec. 10, 2012
7
www.pewresearch.org
Profile of Nonvoters:
Younger, More Hispanic
Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
Dec. 10, 2012
8
www.pewresearch.org
Social Media and Politics
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Facebook, Twitter Growing News Sources
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They Help Drive Campaign Narrative …
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A Mostly Negative Narrative
•
A “Fifth Estate” of Political Actors –
Partisan and Passionate
Dec. 10, 2012
9
www.pewresearch.org
Online Participatory Politics
Pew Internet & American Life Project
Dec. 10, 2012
10
www.pewresearch.org
Social Networkers: Beyond Red vs. Blue
Pew Internet & American Life Project
Campaign 2012: A Final Word
Dec. 10, 2012
www.pewresearch.org
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2012 Election: What We’ve Learned
Carroll J. Doherty
Associate Director
Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
Pew Center on the States – Voting in America 2012
December 10, 2012
cdoherty@pewresearch.org
The 2012 U.S. election showcased a significant shift in the electorate with increased diversity and changing voting patterns. Analysis reveals Obama's success among nonwhite voters, as well as age gaps and future demographic projections. The rise of social media as a political news source is highlighted, shaping campaign narratives and engaging a passionate audience.
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Presentation Transcript
2012 Election: What Weve Learned Carroll J. Doherty Associate Director Pew Research Center for the People & the Press Pew Center on the States Voting in America 2012 December 10, 2012 cdoherty@pewresearch.org
The Electorate The Most Diverse Ever Changing Composition of the Electorate Helped Obama Change from 2008 Was Modest Nonwhites 28% of All Voters, Up From 26% Demographics of Future Elections Will Look Much Different than Those of Today www.pewresearch.org 2 Dec. 10, 2012
Obama Lost Whites by 20 Points And Won Based on exit poll data from National Election Pool www.pewresearch.org 3 Dec. 10, 2012
Changing Face of the American Voter Dramatic Shifts among Young Voters - Now 42% Nonwhite Voters 18-29 Voters 30+ 4 4 4 3 3 4 6 7 6 7 8 7 24% Nonwhite 10 13 9 14 11 42% Nonwhite 18 11 12 12 15 18 17 Other Hispanic 82 79 77 76 74 68 62 58 Black White 2000 2004 2008 2012 2000 2004 2008 2012 Based on exit poll data from the National Election Pool www.pewresearch.org 4 Dec. 10, 2012
Age Gap in Voting Preferences Based on exit poll data from the National Election Pool www.pewresearch.org 5 Dec. 10, 2012
By 2050, A Majority-Minority Nation Population By Race And Ethnicity, Actual and Projected: 1960 2011 2050 85 63 47 29 17 13 12 11 9 5 3.5 0.6 White Hispanic Black Asian Pew Social and Demographic Trends www.pewresearch.org 6 Dec. 10, 2012
Profile of Nonvoters: Younger, More Hispanic All Likely voters 74 12 7 Non- voters 59 10 21 adults 68 11 12 White, non-Hispanic Black non-Hispanic Hispanic 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ 21 33 29 16 13 31 33 21 36 35 20 8 Pew Research Center for the People & the Press www.pewresearch.org 7 Dec. 10, 2012
Social Media and Politics Facebook, Twitter Growing News Sources They Help Drive Campaign Narrative A Mostly Negative Narrative A Fifth Estate of Political Actors Partisan and Passionate www.pewresearch.org 8 Dec. 10, 2012
Online Participatory Politics Pew Internet & American Life Project www.pewresearch.org 9 Dec. 10, 2012
Social Networkers: Beyond Red vs. Blue Pew Internet & American Life Project www.pewresearch.org 10 Dec. 10, 2012
Campaign 2012: A Final Word Compared with past elections, more or less discussion of issues? Compared with past elections, more or less mudslinging? More than usual Less than usual More than usual Less than usual 68 57 54 51 38 34 27 19 2008 2012 2008 2012 Pew Research Center for the People & the Press www.pewresearch.org 11 Dec. 10, 2012
Few Complaints about Voting Process How well was the voting process managed in the area where you live? Did you have any problems voting this year (other than waiting in line)? Not well 6% Yes 3 No 97 20% Fairly well Do you know anyone who tried to vote but was not able to? 73% Very well Yes 9 No 91 Pew Research Center for the People & the Press www.pewresearch.org 12 Dec. 10, 2012
2012 Election: What Weve Learned Carroll J. Doherty Associate Director Pew Research Center for the People & the Press Pew Center on the States Voting in America 2012 December 10, 2012 cdoherty@pewresearch.org
