Impact of Transition to Peace Regime on Korean Peninsula Security
Soon-ok Myong
Professor
of
Korean
Studies
Faculty of Oriental Studies
Al Farabi Kazakh National University
Panmunjom
JSA
(Joint
security area)
DMZ (Demilitarized zone)
Significance
of Issue on Peace Treaty
•
Idea of Eurasia Foundation & UN’s SDGs
•
Influence on Security of Northeast Asia; the world order
•
The South-South conflict
in South Korea
(Lee 2018)
:
Progressives versus Conservatives
Calling for resigning of Moon (
newdaily.co.kr
, Aug 15, 2020)
Calling for impeachment (
newstapa.org
, Nov 27, 2016)
Against impeachment
(
ko.wikipedia.org
, Feb 11, 2017
)
https://gisgeography.com/south-korea-map/
https://gisgeography.com/south-korea-map/
(1945) Independence from Japanese occupation
(1950-1953) Korean
War
R
epublic of
K
orea
D
emocratic
P
eople's
R
epublic of
K
orea
Division of Korean Peninsular since the
Armistice Agreement in 1953
NASA
2014
August 8, 2017, sundayjournal.kr
The Hindu, BBC (
September 13, 2021
, iasparliament.com)
NORTH
KOREA
SOUTH
KOREA
Democracy
Capitalist
Free market economy
Dictatorship
Communist
Command economy
Park Chunghee
Park
Jan 22, 2021.
https://www.statista.com
/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_
Korean_defectors
Peacenik
Peacekeeper
or
peace breaker ?
From a realist perspective of international politics
(
Morgenthau
1978;
Mearsheimer,
2018; Lee D. 2007;
L
ee
Ch. 2007;
Kim M. 2016; Kim H. 2000)
•
The Development of the Debate on DEW and PT
•
North Korea’s consistent stance:
Claims
NK’s
goal:
Withdrawal of US troops from South Korea;
North Korea-led Korean unification
•
South Korea’s previous consistent stance:
Objection
•
Current regime of South Korea since 2018:
Advocacy
- Inter-Korean Summit and ‘4·27 Panmunjom Declaration’
:
- President Moon’s efforts for DEW & PT on the international
diplomatic stage
“
Panmunjom Declaration”
on April 27
(2018 South and North Korea Summit)
•
Proposal of an end-of-war declaration
since 2018
•
Urging
efforts for a peace treaty
•
•
“When a declaration of an end to the war is
achieved, complete peace can begin with
irreversible progress in denuclearization.”
•
-Moon’s a keynote speech at the 76th UN General
Assembly- (Sept 22, 2021, BBC Korea)-
Bloomberg.com Sept 26, 2018
•
BTS at the opening session of the UN’s ‘SDG Moment (high-level meeting of the
Sustainable Development Goals)’ (Sept. 20, 2021)
Proposal of an end-of-war declaration & a peace treaty
Bill
“Call for a Declaration of an End to the War and Conclusion of a Peace
Treaty”
to the U.S. House of Representatives
(BBC Korea, May 21, 2020)
Versus
Campaign calling for the repeal of the
“
Korean Peninsula Peace Act”
by
CPAC(Conservative Political Action Conference) under ACU(American
Conservative Union,
KCPAC,
Liberal Democratic Party
Peacekeeping system under the wartime regime
Armistice System
Parties to the war:
North Korea, China, (Soviet Union)
versus
UN forces
by
The
United Nations Command (Security Council Resolution 1588, July 1950)
Parties to
7·27Armistice
Agreement
, 1953
(
Chung
2020; Kim M. 2016)
-
T
he Commander-in-Chief
,
UN
Command/ The Supreme Commander of the Korean
People’s Army (
NK
)/
T
he Commander of the Chinese People’s volunteers (
China
)
-
The 38th parallel between South and North Korea
Device for Deterrence of War
The Korea-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty: Oct 1, 1953 by the leadership of Lee S.M.
Foreseeable problems
from
DEW and PT
.
Imbalance of military power & disruption of the deterrence of war
- Dismantling of the United Nations Command in Panmunjom
- Withdrawal of US forces from South Korea (
the ROK-US alliance system)
- Impossible to promptly intervene in war on the Korean Peninsula
Denuclearization of NK
Basic Presuppositions for PT
(Koo 2021, 63)
•
Repeated failure of negotiations for NK’s nuclear disarmament
•
Principle to eliminate NK’s nuclear weapon
CVID
(Complete, Verifiable and Irreversible Dismantlement)
FFVD (
Final, Fully Verified Denuclearization
(
C
hung 2020, 331
)
Does a peace treaty guarantee peace?
Examples of peace treaty vulnerabilities
(Lee D. 2007; Lee Ch. 20017; Steven 1949; Russett 1993)
1) In 1938, British Prime Minister Chamberlain signed and declared the
Munich Agreement with Hitler "Peace for our time", Germany's invasion of
Poland a year later; the outbreak of World War II.
2) In January 1973, the Paris Peace Agreement ending the Vietnam War; Two
years later, North Vietnam invasion
to
South Vietnam; the fall of south
Vietnam
National interest & war theory
(
E.H. Carr, Hans J. Morgan Thau, John J
. Mearsheimer, Lee, Ch.
)
•
N
ational interest, morality, and human nature
•
Components of national interest
(Lee Ch. 2007)
SPPP (survival, power, prosperity, prestige of honor)
•
True peace from the establishment of military deterrence
Conclusion and Suggestions
•
Specific condition of security maintenance on the Korean
Peninsular
•
The vulnerability of the peace treaty
(
Gustave Valbert
, 1894)
•
Low feasibility of a peace treaty on the Korean Peninsula
•
Components of national interest
(Lee Ch. 2007)
SPPP (survival, power, prosperity, prestige of honor)
•
Efforts for North Korea's denuclearization
:
-
to persuade North Korea;
-
to seek cooperation with the international community;
-
to build trust with NK
Explore the impact of transition to a peace regime on the security of the Korean Peninsula through topics such as the Panmunjom Joint Security Area, the Demilitarized Zone, and the division between North and South Korea since the Korean War. Discover the significance of a peace treaty in Northeast Asia and the influence of the South-South conflict in Korea.
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Presentation Transcript
Impact of the transition to a peace regime on the security of the Korean Peninsula Soon-ok Myong ProfessorofKoreanStudies Faculty of Oriental Studies Al Farabi Kazakh National University
Panmunjom JSA (Joint security area)
Significance of Issue on Peace Treaty Idea of Eurasia Foundation & UN s SDGs Influence on Security of Northeast Asia; the world order The South-South conflict in South Korea (Lee 2018): Progressives versus Conservatives
Calling for impeachment (newstapa.org, Nov 27, 2016) Against impeachment (ko.wikipedia.org, Feb 11, 2017) Calling for resigning of Moon (newdaily.co.kr, Aug 15, 2020)
(1945) Independence from Japanese occupation (1950-1953) Korean War
Republic of Korea Democratic People's Republic of Korea Division of Korean Peninsular since the Armistice Agreement in 1953
Dictatorship Communist Command economy NORTH KOREA Democracy Capitalist Free market economy SOUTH KOREA
Jan 22, 2021. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_ Korean_defectors https://www.statista.com/
PEACENIK Peacekeeperor peace breaker ? From a realist perspective of international politics (Morgenthau 1978; Mearsheimer, 2018; Lee D. 2007; Lee Ch. 2007; Kim M. 2016; Kim H. 2000)
The Development of the Debate on DEW and PT North Korea s consistent stance: Claims NK sgoal: Withdrawal of US troops from South Korea; North Korea-led Korean unification South Korea s previous consistent stance: Objection Current regime of South Korea since 2018: Advocacy - Inter-Korean Summit and 4 27 Panmunjom Declaration : - President Moon s efforts for DEW & PT on the international diplomatic stage
Panmunjom Declaration on April 27 (2018 South and North Korea Summit)
Proposal of an end-of-war declaration since 2018 Urgingefforts for a peace treaty When a declaration of an end to the war is achieved, complete peace can begin with irreversible progress in denuclearization. -Moon s a keynote speech at the 76th UN General Assembly- (Sept 22, 2021, BBC Korea)- Bloomberg.com Sept 26, 2018
BTS at the opening session of the UNs SDG Moment (high-level meeting of the Sustainable Development Goals) (Sept. 20, 2021)
Proposal of an end-of-war declaration & a peace treaty Bill Call for a Declaration of an End to the War and Conclusion of a Peace Treaty to the U.S. House of Representatives(BBC Korea, May 21, 2020) Versus Campaign calling for the repeal of the Korean Peninsula Peace Act by CPAC(Conservative Political Action Conference) under ACU(American Conservative Union, KCPAC, Liberal Democratic Party
Peacekeeping system under the wartime regime Armistice System Parties to the war: North Korea, China, (Soviet Union) versus UN forces by The United Nations Command (Security Council Resolution 1588, July 1950) Parties to 7 27ArmisticeAgreement, 1953 (Chung 2020; Kim M. 2016) - The Commander-in-Chief, UN Command/ The Supreme Commander of the Korean People s Army (NK)/ The Commander of the Chinese People s volunteers (China) - The 38th parallel between South and North Korea Device for Deterrence of War The Korea-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty: Oct 1, 1953 by the leadership of Lee S.M.
Foreseeable problems from DEW and PT . Imbalance of military power & disruption of the deterrence of war - Dismantling of the United Nations Command in Panmunjom - Withdrawal of US forces from South Korea (the ROK-US alliance system) - Impossible to promptly intervene in war on the Korean Peninsula
Denuclearization of NK Basic Presuppositions for PT(Koo 2021, 63) Repeated failure of negotiations for NK s nuclear disarmament Principle to eliminate NK s nuclear weapon CVID (Complete, Verifiable and Irreversible Dismantlement) FFVD (Final, Fully Verified Denuclearization (Chung 2020, 331)
Does a peace treaty guarantee peace? Examples of peace treaty vulnerabilities (Lee D. 2007; Lee Ch. 20017; Steven 1949; Russett 1993) 1) In 1938, British Prime Minister Chamberlain signed and declared the Munich Agreement with Hitler "Peace for our time", Germany's invasion of Poland a year later; the outbreak of World War II. 2) In January 1973, the Paris Peace Agreement ending the Vietnam War; Two years later, North Vietnam invasion toSouth Vietnam; the fall of south Vietnam
National interest & war theory (E.H. Carr, Hans J. Morgan Thau, John J. Mearsheimer, Lee, Ch.) National interest, morality, and human nature Components of national interest (Lee Ch. 2007) SPPP (survival, power, prosperity, prestige of honor) True peace from the establishment of military deterrence
Conclusion and Suggestions Specific condition of security maintenance on the Korean Peninsular The vulnerability of the peace treaty (Gustave Valbert, 1894) Low feasibility of a peace treaty on the Korean Peninsula Components of national interest (Lee Ch. 2007) SPPP (survival, power, prosperity, prestige of honor) Efforts for North Korea's denuclearization: - to persuade North Korea; - to seek cooperation with the international community; - to build trust with NK
