Heat Hazard Outlook for Mexico and Central America - Week 1
Week-1, valid: 06 – 12 May, 2023
Heat Hazard Outlook for Mexico and
Central America
Week-1, Mean Sea Level Pressure & 500-hPa Height
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7-day total
7-day anomaly
MSLP
500-hPa
Height
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Week-1, 925-hPa and 200-hPa Wind
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7-day total
7-day anomaly
925-hpa
wind
(speed
and
direction)
200-hpa
wind
(diverg.
and
direction)
Add your notes, here.
Week-1, Daily Tmax Exceedance Probability,
with respect to
percentile thresholds
Tmax > 80
th
percentile,
≥3 consecutive days
Tmax > 90
th
percentile,
≥3 consecutive days
Tmax > 95
th
percentile,
≥3 consecutive days
Add your notes, here
Week-1, Daily HImax Exceedance Probability,
with respect to
percentile thresholds
HImax > 80
th
percentile,
≥3 consecutive days
HImax > 90
th
percentile,
≥3 consecutive days
HImax > 95
th
percentile,
≥3 consecutive days
Add your notes, here
Week-1, Daily Tmax/HI Hybrid Index (hybrid) Exceedance
Probability,
with respect to percentile thresholds
hybrid > 80
th
percentile,
≥3 consecutive days
hybrid > 90
th
percentile,
≥3 consecutive days
hybrid > 95
th
percentile,
≥3 consecutive days
Add your notes, here
Week-1, Daily Tmax Exceedance Probability,
with respect to
fixed thresholds
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Tmax > 31
o
C ,
≥3 consecutive days
Tmax > 33
o
C ,
≥3 consecutive days
Tmax > 35
o
C ,
≥3 consecutive days
Week-1, Daily HImax Exceedance Probability,
with respect to
fixed thresholds
Add your notes, here
HImax > 31
o
C ,
≥3 consecutive days
HImax > 33
o
C ,
≥3 consecutive days
HImax > 35
o
C ,
≥3 consecutive days
Week-1, Daily Tmax/HI Hybrid Index (hybrid) Exceedance
Probability,
with respect to fixed thresholds
Add your notes, here
hybrid > 31
o
C ,
≥3 consecutive days
hybrid > 33
o
C ,
≥3 consecutive days
hybrid > 35
o
C ,
≥3 consecutive days
Heat Hazard Outlooks Criteria
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.
Convergence of Evidences
MSLP Anom.
Hybrid - 80
th
Hybrid - 35
o
C
Hybrid - 90
th
Hybrid - 95
th
Hybrid - 33
o
C
Hybrid - 31
o
C
500-hPa Height
https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/CPC/li.xu/UHI/cases/Caribb.20230506_20230513_tmax_glb_07d_90_5mm.txt.html
Urban Heat Island Forecasts
https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/CPC/li.xu/UHI/cases/Caribb.20230506_20230513_tmax_glb_07d_90_5mm.txt.html
Urban Heat Island Forecasts (cont.)
Week-1 Heat Hazards Outlook (C. America and Mexico)
Valid: 06 – 12 May, 2023
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•
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Insert QGIS drawn Outlook map, here
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/endalk/climatehealth/heat-health_forecasts_alt.shtml
Providing a detailed outlook on heat hazards in Mexico and Central America for Week 1 of May 6-12, 2023. The information includes Mean Sea Level Pressure, 500-hPa Height, 925-hPa and 200-hPa Wind analysis, daily Tmax and HImax exceedance probabilities based on various percentiles and thresholds. Visual representations and notes are included in the content.
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Presentation Transcript
Heat Hazard Outlook for Mexico and Central America Week-1, valid: 06 12 May, 2023
Week-1, Mean Sea Level Pressure & 500-hPa Height 7-day total 7-day anomaly Add your notes, here MSLP Add your notes, here 500-hPa Height
Week-1, 925-hPa and 200-hPa Wind 7-day total 7-day anomaly Add your notes, here 925-hpa wind (speed and direction) 200-hpa wind (diverg. and direction) Add your notes, here.
Week-1, Daily Tmax Exceedance Probability, with respect to percentile thresholds Tmax > 90thpercentile, 3 consecutive days Tmax > 95thpercentile, 3 consecutive days Tmax > 80thpercentile, 3 consecutive days Add your notes, here
Week-1, Daily HImax Exceedance Probability, with respect to percentile thresholds HImax > 90thpercentile, 3 consecutive days HImax > 95thpercentile, 3 consecutive days HImax > 80thpercentile, 3 consecutive days Add your notes, here
Week-1, Daily Tmax/HI Hybrid Index (hybrid) Exceedance Probability, with respect to percentile thresholds hybrid > 90thpercentile, 3 consecutive days hybrid > 95thpercentile, 3 consecutive days hybrid > 80thpercentile, 3 consecutive days Add your notes, here
Week-1, Daily Tmax Exceedance Probability, with respect to fixed thresholds Tmax > 31oC , 3 consecutive days Tmax > 33oC , 3 consecutive days Tmax > 35oC , 3 consecutive days Add your notes, here
Week-1, Daily HImax Exceedance Probability, with respect to fixed thresholds HImax > 31oC , 3 consecutive days HImax > 33oC , 3 consecutive days HImax > 35oC , 3 consecutive days Add your notes, here
Week-1, Daily Tmax/HI Hybrid Index (hybrid) Exceedance Probability, with respect to fixed thresholds hybrid > 31oC , 3 consecutive days hybrid > 33oC , 3 consecutive days hybrid > 35oC , 3 consecutive days Add your notes, here
Heat Hazard Outlooks Criteria Hybrid Index > 80thand Hybrid Index > 31oC thresholds for at least 3 consecutive days. Excessive Heat: Hybrid Index > 90thand Hybrid Index > 33oC thresholds for at least 3 consecutive days. Severe Heat: Extremely Severe Heat: Hybrid Index > 95thand Hybrid Index > 35oC thresholds for at least 3 consecutive days.
Convergence of Evidences Hybrid - 80th Hybrid - 31oC MSLP Anom. Hybrid - 33oC Hybrid - 90th 500-hPa Height Hybrid - 95th Hybrid - 35oC
Urban Heat Island Forecasts https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/CPC/li.xu/UHI/cases/Caribb.20230506_20230513_tmax_glb_07d_90_5mm.txt.html
Urban Heat Island Forecasts (cont.) https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/CPC/li.xu/UHI/cases/Caribb.20230506_20230513_tmax_glb_07d_90_5mm.txt.html
Week-1 Heat Hazards Outlook (C. America and Mexico) Valid: 06 12 May, 2023 Add your notes, here Insert QGIS drawn Outlook map, here Add your notes here
