ERCOT Planned Project Success Factor Analysis Update
Comprehensive analysis of ERCOT's planned generation projects success rates, trends, and development cycles, based on queue data snapshots. The report covers factors influencing project outcomes and provides insights into the energy landscape.
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ERCOT Planned Project Success Factor Analysis Update and Other Interconnection Queue Trends Dan Mantena Resource Adequacy December 13, 2022
Outline Update to the success rates of planned generation projects Additional Topics Summary of 2022 generator additions Planned natural gas project trends Thermal upgrade projects 2 PUBLIC
Assumptions for Success Rates and Development Cycle Analysis Analysis based on queue data snapshot from 12/1/22 To account for the development cycle of generation projects, the success rate statistics in this analysis were limited to projects requested between 2002 and 2019 into the ERCOT queue Successful projects are defined as a planned generation projects that have become operational resources (received Commercial Operations Approval or Synchronization Approval from ERCOT) Due to Protocol confidentiality provisions, only those projects for which a Full Interconnection Study (FIS) has been requested are included in this dataset Consistent with monthly Generator Interconnection Status Report (GIS) These statistics do not account for delays to in-service dates (Projected Commercial Operations Dates) Storage DGRs, wind repowers, thermal upgrade projects were excluded from this dataset due to having different interconnection milestone requirements compared to new Generation Resource (GR) projects 3 PUBLIC
Success rates of planned generation projects in ERCOT queue 4 PUBLIC
Interactive Tableau Dashboard updated for recent data 5 PUBLIC
Development Cycle for Planned Projects: Average Duration in Years for Successful Projects (from Queue Request to ERCOT Commercial Operations or Synchronization Approval 6 PUBLIC
Development Cycle for Planned Projects: Number of successful projects (from Queue Request to ERCOT Commercial Operations or Synchronization Approval 7 PUBLIC
Planned Generation projects that have synchronized to ERCOT Grid in 2022 (as of 12/1/22) Additions Solar, 4,004 MW Wind, 1,998 MW Battery Energy Storage, 1,471 MW Natural Gas Combustion Turbine, 908 MW Settlement Only Natural Gas and Diesel, 49 MW Retirements Gas Steam, -450 MW (Decker Creek Unit 2) 8 PUBLIC
Development cycle based on recently approved operational units (from Queue Request to Synchronization Approval to ERCOT Grid) Each dot represents a planned project 9 PUBLIC
Natural Gas Capacity in ERCOT Queue From November 2022 GIS Report. Other Gas Technologies represent Internal Combustion Turbines (889 MW), Gas Steam (694 MW), and Compressed Air Energy Storage (324 MW) Includes only those (1) Large Generator projects for which a Screening Study has been requested, (2) Small Generators for which an interconnection request has been made, and (3) projects that are not Inactive. Small Generators are model ready after completing their Resource Registration form. 10 PUBLIC
Planned natural gas requests by technology type % of planned capacity Other Gas Technologies represent Internal Combustion Turbines, Gas Steam, and Compressed Air Energy Storage. Combined Cycle upgrade projects represent between 5-10% of requested Combined Cycle projects since 2019. 11 PUBLIC
Notable natural gas queue stats Increased gas additions around Houston Metro There have been 15 Combustion Turbine additions in 2022 (as of 12/1/22) in Fort Bend, Harris, and Brazoria counties that total 908 MW of installed capacity 7 of the 8 planned gas projects listed in the November 2022 CDR are combustion turbine projects sited in Harris, Wharton, Galveston, and Brazoria counties Frontera Energy Center (524 MW), combined cycle plant expected to move from CENACE (Mexico Grid) to the ERCOT grid on 6/20/23 based on information from the latest GIS report 12 PUBLIC
Thermal repower/upgrade projects Background: Thermal repower/upgrade projects increase generation capability through the replacements or modifications of aging components These projects are most common for natural gas plants, but some nuclear and coal units are included in the mix; most projects take between 1-2 years to complete As of Dec 2022, 50% of requested thermal upgrade projects have gone operational, totaling 703 MW of increased summer capacity and 810 of increased winter capacity; 23% of projects have been canceled and 28% are still in planned phase There are currently 10 planned upgrade projects at combined cycle plants that are expected to increase the summer-rated gas fleet capacity by 358 MW by the end of 2023 13 PUBLIC
Wrap-up Are there any other interconnection queue topics that would be useful for SAWG stakeholders? If you have any questions on this analysis or requests for additional research, here is my contact info: Dan Mantena, dan.mantena@ercot.com 14 PUBLIC
Appendix: planned gas capacity by request year Other Gas Technologies represent Internal Combustion Turbines, Gas Steam, and Compressed Air Energy Storage. Thermal upgrade projects are reflected in the operational units' ratings upon receipt and ERCOT approval of updated resource registration system information 15 PUBLIC
