Developing D Compiler in D-Scanner at DConf 2022

Development of an advanced ensemble-based
ocean data assimilation approach for ocean and
coupled reanalyses
Eric de Boisséson
, Hao Zuo, Magdalena Balmaseda and Patricia de Rosnay
CMEMS Service Evolution 2 Lot 4 kick-off meeting, 6 April 2018
CMEMS Service Evolution 2 Lot 4
Section 4.7 of the CMEMS service evolution strategy: 
coupled ocean-atmosphere models
with assimilative capability
Advanced assimilation methods targeted to provide improved estimations of upper ocean
properties consistent with sea-surface observations and air-sea fluxes
Context
Context
What we propose:
A way to improve estimates of upper ocean properties is to improve the 
uncertainty
estimate
 of the ocean state
Develop a 
generic ensemble generation scheme 
for ocean analysis applicable in both
ocean-only and coupled models.
Optimize the use of the information from the ocean observing system
Account for uncertainties of the surface variables and air-sea fluxes
Optimize the use of the information from the ocean observing system
Major source of uncertainty: 
observation representativeness errors
Mismatch between obs. and model resolutions
Standard method: 
s
uper-observation and thinning
 techniques
But 
loss
 of information 
from the observing system
Alternative: 
random perturbation
 + 
ensemble approach 
B
etter exploit the information from the obs.
Uncertainty estimate
Context
Context
1. Assimilation of sea-ice observations from CMEMS OSTIA:
Optimize the use of the information from the ocean observing system: 2 examples
Standard: 0.5x0.5 thinning
Alternative: random selection
within the thinning grid
Ensemble spread
uncertainty estimate
Ensemble of analysis
The random selection + ensemble approach provide estimate of the uncertainty and allow
to further exploit the observing system
Context
2. Assimilation of vertical T/S profiles:
Optimize the use of the information from the ocean observing system: 2 examples
The 
random selection 
+ 
ensemble approach 
provide estimate of the uncertainty and allow
to further exploit the information on the vertical axis
Vertical resolution of 
T/S profiles 
much higher
than 
model grid
Standard method: 
thinning
Alternative: 
random selection 
within the
thinning grid
Ensemble approach
Context
Account for uncertainties of the surface variables and air-sea fluxes
Partially
 taken into account in current ocean analysis systems
Example
: current ECMWF ocean analysis uses monthly random perturbations on 
wind
stress and SST
 based on differences between analyses
How can we extend it
?
Other sources of uncertainty: 
bulk formulation 
parametrisations, 
sea-ice
 constraints
and 
heat and freshwater fluxes
A wider range of 
temporal scales 
(submonthly to monthly)
Multivariate relationships
In practice
Use a wider 
variety
 of analysis datasets to provide 
structural and analysis 
uncertainties
Working plan
System and input data
:
ORAS5 (CMEMS MFC GLO-RAN)
Ocean only forced by atmospheric reanalysis
NEMO 3.4.1 at 1/4˚ degree and 75 vertical levels
LIM2 sea-ice model
NEMOVAR DA
CERA-SAT
Coupled reanalysis system
Ocean component similar to ORA-S5
Atmosphere ECMWF IFS 60km resolution and 137 levels
4D-Var DA and 10-member EDA system
Input datasets
In-situ T/S profiles
SLA from CMEMS SL TAC
SIC from CMEMS OSTIA
SST (HadISST2, OSTIA)
Working plan
NEMO
NEMO
NEMOVAR
3DVAR FGAT
Model departures
Increment
Observations
Surface forcing
Next cycle
Obs operator
Bulk formula
Coupled NEMO-IFS
Coupled NEMO-IFS
NEMOVAR
3DVAR FGAT
Model departures
Increment
Observations
Next cycle
Obs operator
IFS 4DVAR
ORAS5
CERA-SAT
ORAS5 and CERA-SAT
: perturbations + ensemble approach = uncertainty estimate
CERA-SAT
: Uncertainty on surface forcing coming from atmos. EDA, flow dependent
WP1: development of the new perturbation scheme
Task 1: Perturbations of ocean observations
Task 2: Evaluation of the perturbation scheme for assimilated observations
Task 3: Building a perturbation repository for surface forcing and surface variables
Task 4: Evaluation of the perturbation scheme for surface forcing and surface variables
Working plan
Evaluation
 of the scheme in ORAS5:
Ensemble spread diagnostics
ECVs
Against independent observations
Against CMEMS GREP
WP 2: Application and evaluation in both ORAS5 and CERA-SAT systems
Task 5: Application in both ocean-only and coupled assimilation systems
Task 6: Evaluation in both ocean-only and coupled assimilation systems
Working plan
Evaluation
 of the scheme in ORAS5 and CERA-SAT:
Coupled vs uncoupled, EDA vs static
Ensemble spread diagnostics
ECVs
Against independent observations
Against CMEMS GREP
S
ection 4.7 of the CMEMS service evolution strategy:
Advanced assimilation methods 
targeted to provide 
improved estimations of upper
ocean properties 
consistent with sea-surface observations and air-sea fluxes.
Main outcome:
G
eneric 
ensemble generation scheme 
for ocean analysis applicable in both ocean-only
and coupled models
O
ptimize the use of the ocean observing system
Ac
count for the uncertainties from 
air-sea
 fluxes 
P
otential impact of coupling on the upper ocean properties and their uncertainty
Deliverables:
Progress and final reports (+ code, possibly)
Outcomes
Potential benefits on the CMEMS services:
A 
better estimate 
of the ocean state consistent with air-sea fluxes and sea-surface
observations
An
 ensemble of ocean-only or ocean-atmosphere coupled 
IC
 for the CMEMS
forecasting system with 
uncertainty information
F
eedback
 and potential improvement for different 
CMEMS TAC 
products (e.g. in-situ
TAC and Sea-Level TAC)
Improved monitoring 
of the ocean physical state, variability and change using an
ensemble of reanalyses with uncertainty in climate signals
Results
 and lessons learnt from this work will be 
transferred to CMEMS
 to help future
CMEMS service update.
Outcomes
The team
Eric de Boisséson (PI), ECMWF, coupled data assimilation (CDA) team
Hao Zuo, ECMWF, CDA team
Magdalena Balmaseda, ECMWF, Head of Predictability section 
Patricia de Rosnay, ECMWF, CDA team leader
Thank you for your attention
Any question?
Slide Note
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This project focuses on integrating the D language compiler within D-Scanner, aiming to enhance development tools in the ecosystem. Goals include improving dmd as a library and analyzing D source code efficiently. Explore the use of ASTBase and ASTCodegen for parsing and semantic analysis. Dive into the similarities among AST nodes and the implementation of Mixin templates in the project.

  • DConf 2022
  • D language
  • Compiler development
  • D-Scanner integration
  • AST analysis

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Presentation Transcript


  1. Development of an advanced ensemble-based ocean data assimilation approach for ocean and coupled reanalyses Eric de Boiss son, Hao Zuo, Magdalena Balmaseda and Patricia de Rosnay CMEMS Service Evolution 2 Lot 4 kick-off meeting, 6 April 2018

  2. Context CMEMS Service Evolution 2 Lot 4 Section 4.7 of the CMEMS service evolution strategy: coupled ocean-atmosphere models with assimilative capability Advanced assimilation methods targeted to provide improved estimations of upper ocean properties consistent with sea-surface observations and air-sea fluxes

  3. Context What we propose: A way to improve estimates of upper ocean properties is to improve the uncertainty estimate of the ocean state Develop a generic ensemble generation scheme for ocean analysis applicable in both ocean-only and coupled models. Optimize the use of the information from the ocean observing system Account for uncertainties of the surface variables and air-sea fluxes

  4. Context Optimize the use of the information from the ocean observing system Major source of uncertainty: observation representativeness errors Mismatch between obs. and model resolutions Standard method: super-observation and thinning techniques But loss of information from the observing system Alternative: random perturbation + ensemble approach Better exploit the information from the obs. Uncertainty estimate

  5. Context Optimize the use of the information from the ocean observing system: 2 examples 1. Assimilation of sea-ice observations from CMEMS OSTIA: Alternative: random selection within the thinning grid Ensemble spread uncertainty estimate Standard: 0.5x0.5 thinning Ensemble of analysis The random selection + ensemble approach provide estimate of the uncertainty and allow to further exploit the observing system

  6. Context Optimize the use of the information from the ocean observing system: 2 examples 2. Assimilation of vertical T/S profiles: Vertical resolution of T/S profiles much higher than model grid Standard method: thinning Alternative: random selection within the thinning grid Ensemble approach The random selection + ensemble approach provide estimate of the uncertainty and allow to further exploit the information on the vertical axis

  7. Context Account for uncertainties of the surface variables and air-sea fluxes Partially taken into account in current ocean analysis systems Example: current ECMWF ocean analysis uses monthly random perturbations on wind stress and SST based on differences between analyses How can we extend it? Other sources of uncertainty: bulk formulation parametrisations, sea-ice constraints and heat and freshwater fluxes A wider range of temporal scales (submonthly to monthly) Multivariate relationships In practice Use a wider variety of analysis datasets to provide structural and analysis uncertainties

  8. Working plan System and input data: ORAS5 (CMEMS MFC GLO-RAN) Ocean only forced by atmospheric reanalysis NEMO 3.4.1 at 1/4 degree and 75 vertical levels LIM2 sea-ice model NEMOVAR DA CERA-SAT Coupled reanalysis system Ocean component similar to ORA-S5 Atmosphere ECMWF IFS 60km resolution and 137 levels 4D-Var DA and 10-member EDA system Input datasets In-situ T/S profiles SLA from CMEMS SL TAC SIC from CMEMS OSTIA SST (HadISST2, OSTIA)

  9. Working plan ORAS5 CERA-SAT Surface forcing Observations Observations Bulk formula Obs operator Obs operator Coupled NEMO-IFS NEMO Model departures Model departures NEMOVAR 3DVAR FGAT NEMOVAR 3DVAR FGAT IFS 4DVAR Increment Increment Coupled NEMO-IFS NEMO Next cycle Next cycle ORAS5 and CERA-SAT: perturbations + ensemble approach = uncertainty estimate CERA-SAT: Uncertainty on surface forcing coming from atmos. EDA, flow dependent

  10. Working plan WP1: development of the new perturbation scheme Task 1: Perturbations of ocean observations Task 2: Evaluation of the perturbation scheme for assimilated observations Task 3: Building a perturbation repository for surface forcing and surface variables Task 4: Evaluation of the perturbation scheme for surface forcing and surface variables Evaluation of the scheme in ORAS5: Ensemble spread diagnostics ECVs Against independent observations Against CMEMS GREP

  11. Working plan WP 2: Application and evaluation in both ORAS5 and CERA-SAT systems Task 5: Application in both ocean-only and coupled assimilation systems Task 6: Evaluation in both ocean-only and coupled assimilation systems Evaluation of the scheme in ORAS5 and CERA-SAT: Coupled vs uncoupled, EDA vs static Ensemble spread diagnostics ECVs Against independent observations Against CMEMS GREP

  12. Outcomes Section 4.7 of the CMEMS service evolution strategy: Advanced assimilation methods targeted to provide improved estimations of upper ocean properties consistent with sea-surface observations and air-sea fluxes. Main outcome: Generic ensemble generation scheme for ocean analysis applicable in both ocean-only and coupled models Optimize the use of the ocean observing system Account for the uncertainties from air-sea fluxes Potential impact of coupling on the upper ocean properties and their uncertainty Deliverables: Progress and final reports (+ code, possibly)

  13. Outcomes Potential benefits on the CMEMS services: A better estimate of the ocean state consistent with air-sea fluxes and sea-surface observations An ensemble of ocean-only or ocean-atmosphere coupled IC for the CMEMS forecasting system with uncertainty information Feedback and potential improvement for different CMEMS TAC products (e.g. in-situ TAC and Sea-Level TAC) Improved monitoring of the ocean physical state, variability and change using an ensemble of reanalyses with uncertainty in climate signals Results and lessons learnt from this work will be transferred to CMEMS to help future CMEMS service update.

  14. The team Eric de Boiss son (PI), ECMWF, coupled data assimilation (CDA) team Hao Zuo, ECMWF, CDA team Magdalena Balmaseda, ECMWF, Head of Predictability section Patricia de Rosnay, ECMWF, CDA team leader

  15. Thank you for your attention Any question?

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