Cumulative Effects of Development and Climate Change on Caribou Population
Cumulative effects of development
and climate change on the PCH
Progress report to the PCMB,
October 23, 2012
by Don Russell
Climate analysis
1990s best conditions during calving
1990s worst conditions in summer
1980s best conditions in summer
Conditions mixed in fall
1990s worst conditions in winter
2000s best conditions in winter
1990s worst conditions in spring
Winter RSF analysis
•
Avoidance of Dempster
–
Not related to snow
–
Stronger between 1985-1998 than 1999-2010
•
Appear strong avoidance of communities
–
May be related to location of communities at periphery of
range and/or avoidance in relation to human activity
•
Weak avoidance of seismic lines and winter road
–
Not related to snow
–
Stronger between 1985-1998 than 1999-2010
•
NEED TO TRANSLATE RESULTS INTO DEVELOPMENT
SCENARIOS
Modeling Cumulative effects
Input data
–
what we need to run the model
Body size
Climate
variability
Vegetation
Population
Density
•
Over 1000 caribou sampled
•
Validation data
•
Fat and Protein estimates
•
CARMA Climate database
•
33 years (1979-2011)
•
Analysis complete
•
CCRS map revised by S.
Francis
•
Based on population
estimates
DONE
TO DO
•
Need to develop input
datasets to reflect role of
climate in population trends
X
X
•
Develop input datasets to
reflect role of density in
changes in body condition
Scenarios
– running E-P model, developing scenarios
Energy -
Protein
model
Climate change
Development
(
Dempster)
Development
(1002)
DONE
TO DO
Development
(other)
•
Model revised to include
protein
•
Scenario Builder complete
•
Historical climate analysis
complete
•
Human footprint map
•
RSF model on Dempster
•
Old analysis of 1002
development – “Sustain”
X
X
•
Develop, run, evaluate
future climate scenarios
•
Develop, run, evaluate
future climate scenarios
•
Major update – especially
recent use of 1002 (3
rd
Summer Ecology report?)
•
How to handle one-off
development projects
Output –
factors to link condition to vital rates
Link to vital
rates (birth,
death, etc)
DONE
TO DO
•
Model tracks all factors
•
Need thorough review of
linkages
•
Develop easy way to
output key factors
Caribou “estimator”
Population
model
DONE
TO DO
•
Model now includes
variability and risk –
(version 1)
•
Develop linkage to E-P model
output
•
Develop easy way to output
key factors
•
Do we want to carve out role
of predator
Harvest policy
Other management actions
•
Currently focus of
“estimator”
•
Develop, run, evaluate
population level policies (e.g.
predator control)
•
Model now includes
variability and risk –
(version 1)
•
Develop, run, evaluate other
actions (e.g. 1002 mitigations)
CARMA 2012
•
Gathering in Vancouver December 4-6, 2012
•
Theme “
CARMA moving from Knowledge to
Action
”
•
Nomination for Arctic Inspiration Prize
–
Knowledge to Action Plan focussed on:
•
Managing and monitoring through abundance
•
Assessing Cumulative Effects
•
Caribou health monitoring plan
•
New Website
www.caff.is/carma
This progress report by Don Russell on the cumulative effects of development and climate change on the Porcupine Caribou Herd (PCH) discusses findings related to climate analysis, winter range selection behavior, modeling the impacts of climate change and development on caribou body size, energy-protein balance, and population trends. The report highlights the importance of considering climate variability, energy-protein models, vegetation changes, and human footprint in developing future scenarios to manage caribou populations effectively.
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Presentation Transcript
Cumulative effects of development and climate change on the PCH Progress report to the PCMB, October 23, 2012 by Don Russell
Climate analysis 1990s best conditions during calving 1990s worst conditions in summer 1980s best conditions in summer Conditions mixed in fall 1990s worst conditions in winter 2000s best conditions in winter 1990s worst conditions in spring
Winter RSF analysis Avoidance of Dempster Not related to snow Stronger between 1985-1998 than 1999-2010 Appear strong avoidance of communities May be related to location of communities at periphery of range and/or avoidance in relation to human activity Weak avoidance of seismic lines and winter road Not related to snow Stronger between 1985-1998 than 1999-2010 NEED TO TRANSLATE RESULTS INTO DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS
Modeling Cumulative effects Climate change Development Body size Climate variability Energy - Protein model Link to vital rates (birth, death, etc) Vegetation Development Development Population Density Normal conditions Normal conditions Population model Harvest policy Harvest policy -aggressive during increase -restricted in decline Climate change, development Climate change, development
Input data what we need to run the model DONE TO DO Over 1000 caribou sampled Validation data Fat and Protein estimates X Body size CARMA Climate database 33 years (1979-2011) Analysis complete Need to develop input datasets to reflect role of climate in population trends Climate variability CCRS map revised by S. Francis Vegetation X Develop input datasets to reflect role of density in changes in body condition Based on population estimates Population Density
Scenarios running E-P model, developing scenarios DONE TO DO Energy - Protein model Model revised to include protein Scenario Builder complete X Historical climate analysis complete Develop, run, evaluate future climate scenarios Climate change Human footprint map RSF model on Dempster Develop, run, evaluate future climate scenarios Development (Dempster) Major update especially recent use of 1002 (3rd Summer Ecology report?) Old analysis of 1002 development Sustain Development (1002) How to handle one-off development projects Development (other) X
Output factors to link condition to vital rates DONE TO DO Need thorough review of linkages Develop easy way to output key factors Model tracks all factors Link to vital rates (birth, death, etc)
Caribou estimator TO DO DONE Develop linkage to E-P model output Develop easy way to output key factors Do we want to carve out role of predator Model now includes variability and risk (version 1) Population model Currently focus of estimator Develop, run, evaluate population level policies (e.g. predator control) Harvest policy Model now includes variability and risk (version 1) Develop, run, evaluate other actions (e.g. 1002 mitigations) Other management actions
CARMA 2012 Gathering in Vancouver December 4-6, 2012 Theme CARMA moving from Knowledge to Action Nomination for Arctic Inspiration Prize Knowledge to Action Plan focussed on: Managing and monitoring through abundance Assessing Cumulative Effects Caribou health monitoring plan New Website www.caff.is/carma
