Role of Shale Gas in Annex 1 Climate Commitments
Does Shale Gas have a role in Annex 1
climate change commitments?
Prof Kevin Anderson and Dr John Broderick
Tyndall Manchester
Key Point
Natural Gas (inc. shale gas)
is not a low carbon fuel
Context
The
international energy agency’s
(IEA)
view on climate change
on track for a 3.5°C rise by 2040 (i.e. 4.2°C relative to preindustrial)
“When I look at this data, the trend is perfectly in line with a
temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius, which would
have
devastating consequences for the planet.”
“we have 5 years to change the energy system –
or have it changed”
Fatih Birol
-
IEA chief economist
UNFCCC
“stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system”
Article 2
What is dangerous?
‘To hold the increase in global temperature
below 2
degrees Celsius
, and take action to meet this objective
consistent with
science
and on the basis of
equity
’
»
Copenhagen Accord (2009/10), Cancun Agreement (2010/11)
‘…
must
ensure global average temperature increases
do
not exceed
preindustrial levels by more than
2°C
’
»
European Commission’s annual communication (2009)
What is mitigation challenge?
To hold cumulative emissions of CO
2
in the atmosphere at
levels that provide a high probability (90%-99%) of staying
below a 2°C rise in global surface temperature
What emissions pathways fits with 2°C?
In 2012 it is too late for a high probability of staying below 2°C
i.e. already blown the budget for our existing commitments
So lets take an outside chance (<50:50) chance of ‘avoiding dangerous CC’
With significant reductions in deforestation & halving food-related emissions
What is left for emissions from energy?
i.e. the pathway for 50:50 chance of avoiding dangerous climate change
… for energy emissions?
(with 2020 peak & a high probability of exceeding 2°C)
… and for energy emissions?
(with 2020 peak & a high probability of exceeding 2°C)
10-20% annual reductions
Globally: no emission
space for
coal
, gas, or
shale – even with CCS!
… and for Annex 1 nations (~OECD)?
40%
reduction by
2015
70%
reduction by
2020
90+%
reduction by
2030
Why such different conclusions?
Context
Take science-based view of 2°C
(i.e. cumulative emissions not 2050 targets)
‘Fair’ division of emissions between Annex 1 & non-Annex 1
Explicit account of global deforestation and food emissions
NB: decarbonising power sector is not the same as “avoiding dangerous climate change”
Impact
Timeframe of transition to low/zero carbon
energy
system significantly reduced
Gas not compatible with such a science-based timeframe
Gas with CCS only compatible with very high capture (over 95%)
NB: research priorities should be genuinely low or zero carbon energy technologies
For unconventional gas
Non-Annex 1
Part of rapid carbon intensity reduction
if
upstream emissions
are managed
… but must lock out other fossil fuel infrastructures & enable CCS
Annex 1
Incompatible with even weak version of 2°C commitments
- inc. with CCS
»
Rapid reduction
in energy
demand;
and
»
increase in very low/zero energy supply necessary
Shale gas, including natural gas, is not a low-carbon fuel according to Prof. Kevin Anderson and Dr. John Broderick from Tyndall Manchester. The International Energy Agency's view on climate change indicates a worrying trend towards a 3.5°C rise by 2040, with catastrophic consequences if not addressed promptly. To prevent dangerous climate interference, it is crucial to limit global temperature increases to below 2°C, as outlined in various agreements and communications. Mitigating the challenge involves holding cumulative CO2 emissions at levels that ensure a high probability of staying below a 2°C temperature rise. By understanding emissions pathways fitting within the 2°C limit, we can strive to avoid irreversible climate change.
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Presentation Transcript
Does Shale Gas have a role in Annex 1 climate change commitments? Prof Kevin Anderson and Dr John Broderick Tyndall Manchester www.tyndall.manchester.ac.uk john.broderick@manchester.ac.uk
Key Point Natural Gas (inc. shale gas) is not a low carbon fuel
Context The international energy agency s (IEA) view on climate change on track for a 3.5 C rise by 2040 (i.e. 4.2 C relative to preindustrial) When I look at this data, the trend is perfectly in line with a temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius, which would have devastating consequences for the planet. we have 5 years to change the energy system or have it changed Fatih Birol - IEA chief economist
UNFCCC stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system Article 2
What is dangerous? To hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius, and take action to meet this objective consistent with science and on the basis of equity Copenhagen Accord (2009/10), Cancun Agreement (2010/11) must ensure global average temperature increases do not exceed preindustrial levels by more than 2 C European Commission s annual communication (2009)
What is mitigation challenge? To hold cumulative emissions of CO2 in the atmosphere at levels that provide a high probability (90%-99%) of staying below a 2 C rise in global surface temperature
What emissions pathways fits with 2C? In 2012 it is too late for a high probability of staying below 2 C i.e. already blown the budget for our existing commitments So lets take an outside chance (<50:50) chance of avoiding dangerous CC With significant reductions in deforestation & halving food-related emissions What is left for emissions from energy? i.e. the pathway for 50:50 chance of avoiding dangerous climate change
for energy emissions? (with 2020 peak & a high probability of exceeding 2 C) 50 40 30 GtCO2yr-1 Increasing probability of exceeding 2 C 20 10 0 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2030 Year
and for energy emissions? (with 2020 peak & a high probability of exceeding 2 C) 50 40 30 GtCO2yr-1 10-20% annual reductions 20 Globally: no emission space for coal, gas, or shale even with CCS! 10 0 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2030 Year
and for Annex 1 nations (~OECD)? 40% 70% 90+% reduction by reduction by reduction by 2015 2020 2030
Why such different conclusions? Context Take science-based view of 2 C (i.e. cumulative emissions not 2050 targets) Fair division of emissions between Annex 1 & non-Annex 1 Explicit account of global deforestation and food emissions NB: decarbonising power sector is not the same as avoiding dangerous climate change Impact Timeframe of transition to low/zero carbon energy system significantly reduced Gas not compatible with such a science-based timeframe Gas with CCS only compatible with very high capture (over 95%) NB: research priorities should be genuinely low or zero carbon energy technologies
For unconventional gas Non-Annex 1 Part of rapid carbon intensity reduction if upstream emissions are managed but must lock out other fossil fuel infrastructures & enable CCS Annex 1 Incompatible with even weak version of 2 C commitments Rapid reduction in energy demand; and increase in very low/zero energy supply necessary - inc. with CCS
