Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Supply: Future Scenarios and Consequences
This study explores the potential impacts of climate change on key renewable energy sources through integrated assessment models. It assesses future potential and costs of various technologies under different warming scenarios, highlighting the effects on energy system dynamics. The findings reveal differing outcomes for renewables like photovoltaic, wind, and bioenergy, with implications for energy sustainability in the face of climate change.
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Climate change impacts on renewable energy supply Gernaat, D.E.H.J., de Boer, H.S., Daioglou, V. et al. Climate change impacts on renewable energy supply. Nat. Clim. Chang. 11, 119 125 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00949-9 This project has received funding from the European Union s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 821124.
Introduction Renewable energy resources, which depend on climate, may be susceptible to future climate change Here we use climate and integrated assessment models to estimate this effect on key renewables. Future potential and costs are quantified across two warming scenarios for eight technologies: utility-scale and rooftop photovoltaic, concentrated solar power, onshore wind energy, offshore wind energy, first-generation bioenergy, lignocellulosic bioenergy, and hydropower. The generated cost supply curves are then used to estimate energy system impacts. This project has received funding from the European Union s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 821124.
Impact potential: historical vs RCP60 in 2070-2100 This project has received funding from the European Union s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 821124.
Impact potential: historical vs RCP60 in 2070-2100 This project has received funding from the European Union s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 821124.
Climate impacts renewables RCP 6.0 Observations: Overall, 4-7% more renewables Bio-energy Mostly ++ Significant Wind + and - Uncertainty Hydropower + and (few ++) Uncertainty Solar Minor More significant (temperature) Fossil-fuel & Nuclear declines 1% to 2% CO2 This project has received funding from the European Union s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 821124. 06-09-2018 5
Climate impacts renewables RCP 2.6 Observations: Surprisingly similar size effect compared to RCP 6.0 More renewables, more susceptible to small changes Less prevalent bio-energy effect More impacts on wind and hydropower more uncertainty Indirect effect most among renewables Risk: similar to historical Smaller climate change signal Could the GCM s This project has received funding from the European Union s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 821124. 06-09-2018 6
Conclusions In a baseline: no serious global negative impacts, possibly some positive Results can differ for specific regions Most notable: bio-energy CO2-fertilization, although still uncertain Hydropower and wind show mixed results Mostly moderate But some regions gaining and others declining High uncertainty Impacts on solar are minor In a future mitigation scenario, these impacts are smaller, but the energy system response is similar to that in the baseline scenario given a larger reliance of the mitigation scenario on renewables. This project has received funding from the European Union s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 821124. 06-09-2018 7
