Challenges and Debates in Climate Change Policy
The content discusses key arguments and issues surrounding anthropogenic climate change, global policies, developing world emissions, and the failure of current climate change submissions. It emphasizes the need for meaningful collective action and highlights the disconnect between narratives and reality in climate change discussions.
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Overview of Issues 2016 The Politics and Public Policy of Paris Oren Cass, Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute for Policy Research October 30, 2015
What are we arguing about? There is anthropogenic climate change Popular Narrative No, there s not Climate change is catastrophic No, it s not Scientific Debate U.S. action will produce global results Policy Debate Policy Debate No, it won t Let s pay trillions of $ to poor nations International Negotiation No, let s not 2
The framework has already resolved the debate To move toward an agreement, negotiators had to: Abandon premise of an enforceable agreement Abandon premise of objective standards / baselines / metrics Abandon premise of mandatory review and revision The purpose of this cycle is to enable an upward spiral of ambition over time. Draft negotiating text History and the science of cooperation predict that quite the opposite will happen. MacKay et al, Nature 3
The developing world is what matters 80% of all emissions 4
The submissions compound the failure Peak by around 2030 (as already predicted); 60-65% intensity reduction (<BAU) 33-35% intensity reduction (halving recent energy efficiency gains) Too vague to assess, does not allow for any accountability World Resource Inst 43% below 2005 level by 2030; but already 41% below 2005 level in 2012 No plan No plan +247% by 2030 instead of self-defined BAU of +261% 5
The narrative may bear little relation to reality U.S. action will produce global results No, it won t It worked! Countries are acting! The U.S. has no excuse not to act. The structure of these commitments is farcical; that we had to go down this path already proves the case against meaningful collective action Under the terms of the plan, India s economy would grow roughly sevenfold by 2030, compared with 2005 levels, while its carbon emissions would triple. Yet if India took no action, emissions would also grow sevenfold. New York Times, 10/1/15 The plans themselves, even with no credible enforcement, confirm no interest in departing from a business as usual trajectory 6
What are we arguing about? There is anthropogenic climate change Popular Narrative No, there s not Climate change is catastrophic No, it s not Scientific Debate U.S. action will produce global results No, it won t Policy Debate Let s pay trillions of $ to poor nations International Negotiation No, let s not 7
Climate Finance is a shakedown, not a solution Ecological Debt Reparations Investment Would be fascinating if this were ever debated Rejected out of fear for open- ended commitment How to actually implement? What would we be getting? Clinton emphasized that the money is only on the table so long as fast-growing nations like China and India accept binding commitments that are open to international inspection and verification. New York Times, 12/17/09 The Price of an Agreement 10
There are three possible outcomes $ $ Developed Countries Walk Away with Nothing Vague Agreement with Enough for Everyone Developing Countries Get Firm Cash Commitment 11
Realistic Expectations (& Rational Goals) for Paris Realistic Expectations Rational Goals Weak agreement with vague finance provisions, followed by much applause, no action Preemptively block climate finance via congressional resolution; emperor has no clothes Claims of significant achievement gradually giving way to claims of urgent need for action Cement the goalposts (baselines) in the right place Focus public attention and policy debate on climate finance Continued push on U.S. to do more to promote spiral of ambition 12
Thank You Overview of Issues 2016 The Politics and Public Policy of Paris Oren Cass, Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute for Policy Research October 30, 2015
