Brexit: Threats, Challenges & Opportunities in the UK and Irish Economies

Delve into the intricacies of Brexit's impact on the UK and Irish economies as discussed by Dan O'Brien, Chief Economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs. Explore the threats and challenges faced, while also uncovering potential opportunities that lie ahead amidst this uncertain period.

• Brexit
• UK economy
• Irish economy
• Challenges
• Opportunities

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1. Brexit: Threats, Challenges & Opportunities Dan O Brien Chief Economist Institute of International and European Affairs

2. Contents 1) EU-UK trade and the UK economy 2) Irish economy issues 3) Scenarios for March 29 2018 4) Challenges and threats 5) Opportunities

3. The UK economy: Trade and economic growth

4. Britains position is fundamentally weak

5. Britains economy has been resilient UK GDP, quarterly % change 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1 2016-Q2 2016-Q3 2016-Q4 2017-Q1 2017-Q2 2017-Q3 2017-Q4 2018-Q1 2018-Q2 2018-Q3

6. Irish economy issues

7. Credit is not driving the economy

8. Construction: residential is still on the floor

9. The economy is doing well, but were not back to pre-2008 times

10. Employment growth has been strong

11. Employment is faltering in border region

12. Three major risks Hard Brexit US-EU trade war Italy goes Greek

13. Brexit scenarios

14. Four scenarios for March 29 2018 No Brexit (15% probability) A substantially different deal (2% probability) Current draft deal (15% probability) No deal Brexit (68pc probability)

15. Brexit implications

16. Political and geopolitical consequences Europe/EU/UK has less global influence EU is less transatlantic Europe is weaker vis a vis Russia EU is more German-centred

17. Economic and financial consequences Europe/EU/UK has less global influence Europe is a less attractive place to invest EU less liberal internally Less intra-European trade FDI disruption/relocation

18. Ireland-specific implications Northern Ireland Exports Imports

19. Import risk is under-appreciated

20. Brexit opportunities

21. Brexit opportunities for Britain

22. Brexit opportunities for others UK has the largest stock of FDI in the EU

23. Thank you. dan.obrien@iiea.com Twitter @danobrien20