The Road to Brexit: How Did We Get Here?
BREXIT
Part 1
How did we get here??
THE PERFECT STORM
The context
The Economy
•
€urogeddin (ongoing problems with the Euro)
•
Now new EU oversight rules in response
•
New EU-US Trade Agreement was nearing
conclusion – ish - Transatlantic Trade &
Investment Partnership (
TTIP
)
•
Discussions of the Common Consolidated
Corporate Tax Base (
CCCTB
)
•
Data protection rules being strengthened (e.g. the
Safe Harbour case)
GREXIT
•
Bailout or melt down
•
The talk of Greece being forced
out of the Eurozone & an exit from the EU?
•
The Greeks held a referendum
•
The Greek Parliament holds all night talks
(live tweeted)
•
OXI (No!) to the deal
•
Eventually a deal is reached
•
Very very contentious
•
Talk of the collapse of the EU..
Security
•
Ukraine / The Crimea – Sanctions on Russia
•
Syria (2016 Aleppo)
•
Russia Resurgent
•
EU and Member States
criticised for not taking
more action
•
ISIS / DAESH
•
Talk of the EU collapsing….
Migrant Crisis
Terrorism
•
Terror at home
•
Charlie Hebdo
•
Paris ‘The Bacalan’ 13/11
•
Brussels Lockdown
•
Solidarity marches
•
Home grown or imported terror?
•
The ‘enemy within’
•
Immigrant populations & integration
•
France bombs DAESH (ISIS)
•
Talk of the EU collapsing
•
Ongoing attacks across Europe
through 2016
Swing towards extremism
•
Polish government attempts press curbs – leads
to protests
•
Le Pen in France gaining support
HOW DID WE GET HERE?
A quick reminder ….
Brexit – How did
we Get here?
•
In the UK 2015 General
Election the Conservatives
are doing badly
•
Camaron announces he will
hold a Brexit referendum if
he is re-elected.
•
The Conservatives gain in a
landslide election
•
He has painted himself into
a corner and now has to
deliver on his promises
OOPS !
The campaign leaders
Leave
Stay
The average Brit is not impressed.
The debate is getting heated. And some nasty elements
are beginning to appear
The Leave
campaign focuses
on costs of EU
membership
They make claims about
losses
They want to prevent
immigration
They want greater
independence ‘
Take
back control’
is their
slogan
They lie
June - The campaign gets intense
The divisions are
becoming clearer
Underlying this campaign
are the strains due to
austerity policies.
The demographics are
clear
The campaign gets nasty
17 June MP Jo Cox is Murdered
Questions are being asked
– Assassination, terrorism
or lone wolf attack? did
the Brexit Campaign
cause this? Is it another
Right Wing Attack on
Democratic Parliamentary
process – one of many –
so opportunistic at most?
Are MPs now afraid to
speak out???
The ‘Remain’ camp are worried
•
Campaigning stops out of respect for the
weekend
•
There is a last ditch attempt in this the final week
of the campaign to push for a ‘Remain’ vote
•
Major celebrities come out in favour of a
;Remain; vote
•
Major UK companies come out in favour of a
‘Remain’ vote
•
Have they done too little too late?
•
The referendum is to be held on the 23
rd
June
David Beckham
David Beckham has urged people to vote to stay in the European Union,
saying the UK should be "facing the problems of the world together and
not alone". 21 June 2016
June 21
•
A swing to the Remain camp
•
53% Remain
•
46% Leave
•
1% don’t know
Nail-biting begins
Fingers pointed at the Tabloids for
creating migrant fears over the years
Opinion Poll 22 June 2016
Neck and neck –
REMAIN 43%
LEAVE 44%
Source: FT poll of polls
A real distrust of ‘Experts’
emerges.
Leave voters not swayed by
‘establishment’ views.
Last attempts at getting
Remain win – maybe too
late?
The tabloids front pages -
on polling day!
Concerns grow
•
Camaron is worried
•
There is some sign of a Remain win – but the
polls are inconclusive
•
The City arranges to stay up all night – rents
rooms in local hotels for their traders
•
The first count is expected at about 4am
Friday
•
Overnight Sterling begins to climb to an 8 year
high on rumours of a Remain win
Scotland
Pencilgate
Impact of social media
Pencilgate rumour spreads
People tweet their cast
vote!
M15 Responds
First results start to come in
•
Gibraltar and the
Scottish isles are for
Remain.
•
“Gibraltar... A rock solid
84% turnout - 19,322
Remain and Leave: 823”
Faisil islam
The Early Editions - Friday 24
th
It looks like ‘Remain’ won
•
Farage the leader of the ‘Leave’ campaign is
interviewed in tears, he says he thinks it is all lost.
•
The news forecasters are saying it looks like
‘Remain’ have it
•
Most people who stayed up late to see the results
go to bed
•
Most are relieved, the status quo at least hold no
surprises ….
•
That was close….
However …
Next morning the world wakes up to the actual
referendum result
•
51.9 % vote to leave
the EU (Remain 48.1)
•
Turnout 72%
Breakdown by Nations of the UK
•
England 53% Leave 47 % Remain
•
Scotland 38% Leave 62 % Remain
•
Whales 53% Leave 47 % Remain
•
Northern Ireland 44% Leave 56% Remain
cue pandemonium
Political fallout
•
The Prime Minister Camaron resigns
•
All the key players are nowhere to be found
for comment
•
Westminster goes into meltdown
•
Eventually a new Prime minister is found
•
Teresa May takes over
Sterling goes into freefall
•
Governor of Bank of England makes statement
•
Says he will take action to support the pound
Brussels responds
•
‘We are
ready’.. (Tusk)
•
‘don’t want delay; out is out…’; see video
http://bbc.in/29fm8nK
(Junker)
•
‘UK can’t cherry pick’… (Merkle)
•
In general EU stating that the UK cannot have
access to the Single Market without allowing
EU Citizens migration into the UK
•
The ‘Four Freedoms’ are sacrosanct
EuroParl debate Very lively
•
MEP Farage Speech ( see video) Causes
ructions
•
“You’re not laughing now”
•
“The little people rejected you”
•
“A prediction – the UK will not be the last”
•
“Most of you have never done a proper job in
your life”
MEPs respond
•
Junker ‘surprised you are here’
•
Verhofstat ‘ the lies’
•
Photo’s emerge of surgeon behind Farage
‘Remain’ rallies are held outside
Westminster – noticeably youthful
The EU Response
•
The EU's Trade Commissioner, Cecilia
Malmstrom, says the UK cannot begin
negotiating trade terms with the bloc until after
it has left "First you exit then you negotiate,“
•
All over the UK are
Battle of the Somme
commemorations
Monday July 4
th
Things are moving very
fast …
Farage resigns as leader of
UKIP; Retains his MEP seat
A group of lawyers mount
a legal challenge to the
Brexit vote
AG says second
referendum is legally
possible
Issue of Ex-Pats & EU
Nationals in the UK hots
up
No staff for Trade Deals
•
Ads in the papers looking for negotiators
•
Not enough staff in the UK civil service who have
the key skills required
•
The UK say they want to negotiate a series of new
bi-lateral trade deals with countries around the
world instead of being part of the EU
•
The UK would also need people with specialised
skills for the separation from the EU as well
The public turn to Larry the Cat for enlightenment -
(Larry is the No 10 Cat)
The Teresa May Government
•
‘Brexiteers’ get key posts focused on negotiating
the UK exit form the EU (they take the lead, but
also the risk!)
•
Boris Johnson – New Foreign Secretary
•
David Davis – “Brexit Secretary” – heads Brexit
negotiations
•
Liam Fox – trade - (Eurosceptic)
•
These were all for leave
•
(Michael Gove & Osborn gone)
•
Generally this is regarded as a poisoned chalice
Events…
•
Negative reports on the Italian Banking Sector
•
France – Nice-promenade attack Thursday July 14
th
•
Attempted coup in Turkey July Fri 15
th
•
Too much ‘news’ , too fast ….
•
Social media is in overdrive
July 16 +
•
Issue of increased hate crimes
•
Often targeting Polish nationals
•
Reported as happening in particular in ‘Leave’
Eurosceptic areas - here they have tripled
•
These represent a real increase not just more
reporting
•
Remainers in despair – and not giving up
Theories emerge
•
‘The ascent of digital democracy over
representative democracy’ (
The Brookings
Institute think tank
)
•
Talk of the ‘destabilization of modern
globalisation’
•
The politics of ‘Nostalgia and Narcissistic Rage’
•
The term ‘Post-Truth’ begins to circulate
(often corrected to ‘lies’ and ‘propaganda’)
Holliers
The world closes for august vacations
AUTUMN 2016 BREXIT
Westminster returns
Lines are drawn
‘Brexit means Brexit’
As the situation worsens
Predictions of Economic Impact
MARMITE-GATE
High Court considers Brexit case
Concerns over
tone of the media
reports
This is unprecedented
in the UK; Parallels
are drawn with Nazi
Germany
The Court case
Teresa May will appeal
The result will be known in
mid-January 2017
Several court cases are
planned all challenging Brexit
in one way or another.
One gets crowd funded
reaching its £70k target in 48
hours
2017 Jan 1
st
: Regrexit
BREXIT AND IRELAND
Likely impacts on both Republic of
Ireland and Northern Ireland cause
concern – and confusion
NI impacts -
NI voted ‘Remain’
A hard border? Now the EU border & the only UK land border
Questions about immigrants, illegal crossing etc.
Political Stability
EU funds - will they be replaced? ‘Peace industry’ & Joint bodies?
Border checks (Mostly security) – like in the past
Significant trade to the south would be affected
ROI impacts
•
Currency instability: Sterling devaluation: After a vote
to leave, the sterling/euro exchange rate could weaken
moving close to parity and leaving Irish firms selling
into the UK market much less competitive.
•
IDA hopes to attract up to 80,000 people from The City
•
Impact on housing in Dublin in particular
•
Competition from the UK for FDI - Brexit and the risk of
investment flight would likely prompt the UK to
aggressively improve their FDI offering
•
Agri-biz affected; UK Tariffs.
•
General economic uncertainty
Citizens – impacts
•
A lot of talk about foreigners in the UK feeling unwelcome and nervous
– mostly concerned about the unpredictability of their future status
•
Huge surge in UK applicants for Irish Passports
•
Already in UK Some EU citizens applying for UK citizenship are getting
rejection letters – and being told to leave the country (but not currently
binding)
•
Uncertainty about the status of Irish living and working in the UK
•
Any rules will be EU rules, can’t be bilateral (although the UK could
make a unilateral arrangement
•
Long history of comings and goings between the two countries (!)
Scotland looks for solutions
•
Scotland voted to Remain, talks of new Scottish
Independence Referendum.
•
Talk of an alliance within the EU of Scotland,
Northern Ireland and the ROI.
•
On social media Londoners say they would like to
join too ….
•
The House of Lords European Union Committee
publishes report 12 Dec 2016
Key findings
•
The Committee concluded that any negative impact of Brexit on the UK economy is
likely to be replicated, or even magnified, for the Irish economy. The Committee
agreed that the unique nature of UK-Irish relations requires a unique solution, and
calls on the UK and Irish Governments to negotiate a draft bilateral agreement,
incorporating the views and interests of the Northern Ireland Executive, which
would then need to be agreed by the EU as part of the final Brexit negotiations,
with key aspects including:
•
Continuation of the current open land border between the UK and Ireland
•
Maintenance of the Common Travel Area, the right of free movement within it for
UK and Irish citizens, and their right to reside and work in both countries.
•
Retention of the right to Irish (and therefore EU) citizenship for the people of
Northern Ireland.
•
A customs and trade arrangement between the UK and Ireland if the UK leaves the
customs union.
•
Reaffirmation by both Governments of their commitment to the Belfast/Good
Friday Agreement and continued support for cross-border cooperation.
One possible solution is mooted
Gerry Adams calls for
consideration of a United
Ireland
Could Ireland leave the
EU to keep the common
travel arrangement with
the UK
In effect ….reunifying
with Britain
Quo Vadis?
Brexit 2017
Camilla Fanning
End
The road to Brexit was paved with a series of events including economic struggles in the Eurozone, talks of a Grexit, security concerns in Ukraine and Syria, the migrant crisis, terrorism threats, and a swing towards extremism in European politics. The decision ultimately culminated in the UK's 2015 General Election, where the promise of a Brexit referendum by Prime Minister David Cameron led to unexpected outcomes with far-reaching consequences.
Download Presentation
Please find below an Image/Link to download the presentation.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author.If you encounter any issues during the download, it is possible that the publisher has removed the file from their server.
You are allowed to download the files provided on this website for personal or commercial use, subject to the condition that they are used lawfully. All files are the property of their respective owners.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author.
E N D
Presentation Transcript
BREXIT Part 1 How did we get here??
THE PERFECT STORM The context
The Economy urogeddin (ongoing problems with the Euro) Now new EU oversight rules in response New EU-US Trade Agreement was nearing conclusion ish - Transatlantic Trade & Investment Partnership (TTIP) Discussions of the Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base (CCCTB) Data protection rules being strengthened (e.g. the Safe Harbour case)
GREXIT Bailout or melt down The talk of Greece being forced out of the Eurozone & an exit from the EU? The Greeks held a referendum The Greek Parliament holds all night talks (live tweeted) OXI (No!) to the deal Eventually a deal is reached Very very contentious Talk of the collapse of the EU..
Security Ukraine / The Crimea Sanctions on Russia Syria (2016 Aleppo) Russia Resurgent EU and Member States criticised for not taking more action ISIS / DAESH Talk of the EU collapsing .
Terrorism Terror at home Charlie Hebdo Paris The Bacalan 13/11 Brussels Lockdown Solidarity marches Home grown or imported terror? The enemy within Immigrant populations & integration France bombs DAESH (ISIS) Talk of the EU collapsing Ongoing attacks across Europe through 2016
Swing towards extremism Polish government attempts press curbs leads to protests Le Pen in France gaining support
HOW DID WE GET HERE? A quick reminder .
Brexit How did we Get here? In the UK 2015 General Election the Conservatives are doing badly Camaron announces he will hold a Brexit referendum if he is re-elected. The Conservatives gain in a landslide election He has painted himself into a corner and now has to deliver on his promises OOPS !
The campaign leaders Leave Stay
The average Brit is not impressed. The debate is getting heated. And some nasty elements are beginning to appear
The Leave campaign focuses on costs of EU membership They make claims about losses They want to prevent immigration They want greater independence Take back control is their slogan They lie
June - The campaign gets intense The divisions are becoming clearer Underlying this campaign are the strains due to austerity policies. The demographics are clear
Questions are being asked Assassination, terrorism or lone wolf attack? did the Brexit Campaign cause this? Is it another Right Wing Attack on Democratic Parliamentary process one of many so opportunistic at most? Are MPs now afraid to speak out??? 17 June MP Jo Cox is Murdered
The Remain camp are worried Campaigning stops out of respect for the weekend There is a last ditch attempt in this the final week of the campaign to push for a Remain vote Major celebrities come out in favour of a ;Remain; vote Major UK companies come out in favour of a Remain vote Have they done too little too late? The referendum is to be held on the 23rdJune
David Beckham David Beckham has urged people to vote to stay in the European Union, saying the UK should be "facing the problems of the world together and not alone". 21 June 2016
June 21 A swing to the Remain camp 53% Remain 46% Leave 1% don t know Nail-biting begins
Fingers pointed at the Tabloids for creating migrant fears over the years
Opinion Poll 22 June 2016 Neck and neck REMAIN 43% LEAVE 44% Source: FT poll of polls
A real distrust of Experts emerges. Leave voters not swayed by establishment views.
Last attempts at getting Remain win maybe too late?
Concerns grow Camaron is worried There is some sign of a Remain win but the polls are inconclusive The City arranges to stay up all night rents rooms in local hotels for their traders The first count is expected at about 4am Friday Overnight Sterling begins to climb to an 8 year high on rumours of a Remain win
Impact of social media Pencilgate rumour spreads People tweet their cast vote!
First results start to come in Gibraltar and the Scottish isles are for Remain. Gibraltar... A rock solid 84% turnout - 19,322 Remain and Leave: 823 Faisil islam
It looks like Remain won Farage the leader of the Leave campaign is interviewed in tears, he says he thinks it is all lost. The news forecasters are saying it looks like Remain have it Most people who stayed up late to see the results go to bed Most are relieved, the status quo at least hold no surprises . That was close .
However Next morning the world wakes up to the actual referendum result 51.9 % vote to leave the EU (Remain 48.1) Turnout 72%
Breakdown by Nations of the UK England 53% Leave 47 % Remain Scotland 38% Leave 62 % Remain Whales 53% Leave 47 % Remain Northern Ireland 44% Leave 56% Remain
Political fallout The Prime Minister Camaron resigns All the key players are nowhere to be found for comment Westminster goes into meltdown Eventually a new Prime minister is found Teresa May takes over
Sterling goes into freefall Governor of Bank of England makes statement Says he will take action to support the pound
Brussels responds We are ready .. (Tusk) don t want delay; out is out ; see video http://bbc.in/29fm8nK (Junker) UK can t cherry pick (Merkle) In general EU stating that the UK cannot have access to the Single Market without allowing EU Citizens migration into the UK The Four Freedoms are sacrosanct
EuroParl debate Very lively MEP Farage Speech ( see video) Causes ructions You re not laughing now The little people rejected you A prediction the UK will not be the last Most of you have never done a proper job in your life
MEPs respond Junker surprised you are here Verhofstat the lies Photo s emerge of surgeon behind Farage
Remain rallies are held outside Westminster noticeably youthful
The EU Response The EU's Trade Commissioner, Cecilia Malmstrom, says the UK cannot begin negotiating trade terms with the bloc until after it has left "First you exit then you negotiate, All over the UK are Battle of the Somme commemorations
Monday July 4th Things are moving very fast Farage resigns as leader of UKIP; Retains his MEP seat A group of lawyers mount a legal challenge to the Brexit vote AG says second referendum is legally possible Issue of Ex-Pats & EU Nationals in the UK hots up
No staff for Trade Deals Ads in the papers looking for negotiators Not enough staff in the UK civil service who have the key skills required The UK say they want to negotiate a series of new bi-lateral trade deals with countries around the world instead of being part of the EU The UK would also need people with specialised skills for the separation from the EU as well
The public turn to Larry the Cat for enlightenment - (Larry is the No 10 Cat)
The Teresa May Government Brexiteers get key posts focused on negotiating the UK exit form the EU (they take the lead, but also the risk!) Boris Johnson New Foreign Secretary David Davis Brexit Secretary heads Brexit negotiations Liam Fox trade - (Eurosceptic) These were all for leave (Michael Gove & Osborn gone) Generally this is regarded as a poisoned chalice
Events Negative reports on the Italian Banking Sector France Nice-promenade attack Thursday July 14th Attempted coup in Turkey July Fri 15th Too much news , too fast . Social media is in overdrive
