Analysis of Artisan Shortage in the Metal Industry and the Role of ARPL

This research study delves into the ongoing debate regarding the shortage of artisans in the metal industry since 1994. The analysis aims to determine the existence of a shortage, evaluate the utilization of ARPL to combat potential shortages, and explore the factors driving artisan imbalances. By examining occupational changes, employment trends, and methodological approaches, the study seeks to provide valuable insights for policymakers, employers, and training providers in the industry.

• Artisan Shortage
• Metal Industry
• ARPL
• Occupational Changes
• Employment Trends

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1. merSETA Chamber Meeting 31 May 2019 Dr Fathima Rasool The extent of shortage or surplus of artisans in the metal industry and the use of ARPL to address potential shortages

2. Problem Statement Government, labour and employers have been calling to increase the supply of artisans since 1994 Evident in the RDP, NDP, NGP and many other policy pronouncements Consistent mantra we have an acute shortage of artisans and an aging artisan workforce

3. Questions Is there [really] a shortage of artisans in the Metal Industry? Purpose of Study Assess whether there is a shortage of artisans in the metal industry Establish the appropriateness of ARPL to address potential shortages

4. Conceptual Framework of the Research Study WHAT IS DRIVING ARTISAN SHORTAGES State of Economy Supply of Artisans by training providers ARTISAN DEMAND Hard-To-Fill Vacancies Wage changes Interviews Labour Force Datasets ARTISAN SUPPLY Pass rates in Trade Tests annually ARTISAN IMBALANCES Shortages or Surpluses

5. Occupational Changes in Metal Industry (1999-2018) 100% 19,888 24,509 8,082 15,077 3,705 16,156 16,504 90% 32,437 33,232 29,813 27,634 42,074 7,535 80% 2,306 9,303 32,750 20,643 3,180 45,699 70% 23,822 29,493 72,937 3,459 23,570 7,338 80,872 60% 4,950 50% Artisans 108,456 102,561 40% 111,828 70,550 94,664 30% 20% 99,956 46,720 83,164 10% 54,806 93,243 0% 44,849 1999 37,046 2004 24,817 2009 2014 2018 Elementary Operators Craft workers Sales & Services Clerks Technicians Professionals Managers

6. Employment increased between 1999 to 2018 by the following: 33 Metal Industry Trades Clerks -3 812 Artisans 38 891 Sales & service 2 644 Managers 9 925 Operators 22 693 Professionals 1 221 Elementary 21 903 Technicians 7 666

7. Methodology for Determining Artisan Imbalances in Metal Industry (Surpluses / Shortages)

8. Artisan Employment Growth / Scenarios Determine the artisan employment growth in the metal industry between 2014 to 2018. Forecast Scenarios 2018 - 2022 Artisan Artisan Change in Employment % Employment Employment Change 9% 12% 15% 2014-2018 2014 102 561 2018 111 828 9 267 +9% 121 983 125 247 128 602 (10 065) (13 419) (16 774)

9. Develop a Typology to Categorise Artisan Imbalances CATEGORY A: EXCESSIVE DEMAND FOR ARTISANS Meaning CATEGORY B: MODERATE DEMAND FOR ARTISANS Meaning There is an excessive demand for, or shortage of, artisans in a metal trade. Score There is a moderate demand for artisans in a metal trade. Score Between 7 and 10 points qualifies a metal trade for this category. Between 4 and 6 points qualifies a metal trade for this category. CATEGORY C: LOW DEMAND FOR ARTISAN Meaning CATEGORY D: NO DEMAND FOR ARTISANS Meaning There is a low demand for artisans in a metal trade. There is no demand for artisans in a metal trade. Score Score Between 1 and 3 points qualifies a metal trade for this category. 0 points qualifies a metal trade for this category.

10. Scorecard (Index) METAL TRADES HTFV Survey TRADE TEST PASSES DHET SCORE OUT OF 10 OCCUPATIONS IN HIGH DEMAND LIST Excluded (Median) (Median) MAXIMUM CATEGORY DEMAND Median Median Median Median Highest Above Above Below Below Higher None None High SCORE 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 2 4 6 (10) A-B-C-D E.g. Welder (8) * * * CATEGORY A: EXCESSIVE DEMAND FOR ARTISANS Scores 7-10 points (E.g. Welder) CATEGORY C: LOW DEMAND FOR ARTISAN Scores 1-3 points CATEGORY B: MODERATE DEMAND FOR ARTISANS Scores 4-6 points CATEGORY D: NO DEMAND FOR ARTISANS Scores 0 points

11. Findings CATEGORY A: EXCESSIVE DEMAND FOR ARTISANS CATEGORY B: MODERATE DEMAND FOR ARTISANS Armature Winder / Tractor Mechanic / Boilermaker Rigger / Mechanical Equipment Repairer / Earthmoving Diesel Fitter / Millwright Refrigeration Mechanic (Commercial / Industrial) Equipment Mechanic / Electronics Equipment Mechanician / Fitter / Forklift Mechanic / Instrument Mechanician / Sheet Metal Worker / Turner / Hydraulic Fitters Tool, Jig and Die Maker / Welder / Electrician / Fitter and Turner / Lift Mechanic CATEGORY C: LOW DEMAND FOR ARTISAN CATEGORY D: NO DEMAND FOR ARTISANS Motor Mechanic Domestic Appliance Mechanician / Domestic Radio Mechanician / Domestic Radio and TV Mechanician Plastics Mould Maker Moulder/ Patternmaker/ Refractory Mason / Roll Turner Telecommunications Mechanician Scale Fitter

12. Artisan RPL Model DHET/QCTO has developed a model for ARPL. The Criteria and Guidelines for the Implementation of Artisan Recognition of Prior Learning (Government Gazette No. 40691, 17 March 2017) is a process to conduct APRL. This is the statutory process for ARPL that must be adhered to:

13. ARPL Model Application Orientation EvaluationPoE Registration for RPL Competent Candidate evaluation Trade Test QCTO Certificate Interview / Feedback Not Competent EvaluationPoE Gap Closure Training Provider Work Place Training

14. Recommendations for Metal Chamber: There should be a bi-annual metal chamber report on: o Number of apprenticeships registered in metal trades. o Number of trade test passes in metal trades. A Hard-To-Fill Vacancy Survey should be administered to all companies annually (Strongest indicator of artisan shortage). An Artisan Tracer Study should be administered annually to new artisans. Interviews should be conducted with metal industry experts on artisan skills needs annually.

15. Recommendations for merSETA: An institutional skills planning mechanism should be developed to monitor artisan imbalances. A standardised methodology for all chambers should be applied to measure artisan imbalances. Research studies should be chamber-wide for comparability and integration of findings. An artisan skills scorecard with key supply and demand indicators should be developed. Develop the diagnostic capacity of merSETA and Chamber Committees to analyse artisan demand and supply.

16. A research agenda should be developed to produce the following reports: o State of the labour market o Current and future artisan imbalances o Wage Analysis o Graduate (new artisan) Destinations o Skills migration in manufacturing o Skills needs in national strategies and plans o Employer satisfaction about skills training

17. Thank you Fathima Rasool fathima@frresearch.co.za