AB 109 Client Overview and Outcome Analysis for Criminal Justice Reform

This analysis plan delves into the overview and outcomes of AB 109 clients, focusing on the population characteristics, service utilization, and recidivism outcomes. It includes a detailed examination of different supervision terms under AB 109 and assesses recidivism based on convictions for specific offenses. The study period covers data from October 2011 to December 2018, with a particular emphasis on post-release community supervision and formal probation scenarios.

• Criminal justice reform
• AB 109
• Recidivism outcomes
• Population characteristics
• Service utilization

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1. AB 109 CLIENT OVERVIEW AND OUTCOME ANALYSIS Analysis Plan March 18, 2019

2. Agenda 2 Background and Scope Assumptions and Definitions Analysis Plan

3. Background and Scope 3 2019 Report 2017 Report Provided an overview of the population based on data from October 2011- June 2016 Summarized sentencing outcomes for all realigned offenses Measured County s probation and jail population Described County s realigned populations Assessed AB 109-funded service utilization Update findings based on data from October 2011 - December 2018 Examine recidivism outcomes for: Post Release Community Supervision (PRCS) Mandatory Supervision (MS) Formal Probation with a conviction for an 1170(h) offense Formal Probation without a conviction for an 1170(h) offense

4. Assumptions and Definitions 4

5. Data Quality and Availability 5 Analyses outlined in plan contingent on data availability, quality, and sample size RDA will work with CCP-EC partners to identify alternative or proxy measures for analysis, if/when necessary.

6. Study Populations and Timeframe 6 RDA will examine population characteristics, service utilization, and recidivism outcomes for each of the following populations: PRCS MS Formal Probation with a conviction for an 1170(h) offense Formal Probation without a conviction for an 1170(h) offense Reporting Period: October 11 - December 18.

7. Population Hierarchy 7 The population hierarchy is used to determine which population to put an individual in for analysis purposes when the individual has two or more overlapping supervision terms PRCS MS Formal Probation with conviction for 1170(h) Offense Formal Probation without conviction for 1170(h) Offense

8. Recidivism Definition 8 BSCC Recidivism Definition Conviction of a new felony or misdemeanor committed within three years of release from custody or committed within three years of placement on supervision for a previous criminal conviction. This report will address one, two, and three year rates of recidivism for: Convictions of new criminal offenses DA revocations Probation revocations 1. 2. 3. Date of recidivism will be measured as date of offense. If unavailable, the analysis will substitute date of arrest or charge filing.

9. Analysis Plan 9

10. Report Components 10 Sentencing and Population Summary Service Delivery and Outcomes Recidivism Outcomes 1. 2. 3.

11. Sentencing and Population Summary 11 Substantive Focus Data Sources Sentencing outcomes for all realigned offenses District Attorney s Office County Jail and probation populations over time Sheriff s Office Probation Department Descriptive overview of population under Probation s supervision

12. Service Delivery and Outcomes 12 Substantive Focus Data Sources Summary of service utilization Short-term programmatic outcomes (e.g., GED attainment/high school equivalency completion for Five Keys Charter School) Behavioral Health Care Services District Attorney s Office Community Development Agency Probation Department Public Defender s Office Sheriff s Office

13. Recidivism Outcomes 13 Substantive Focus Data Sources One, two, and three year recidivism rates for: Convictions of new criminal offenses DA-filed revocations Probation-filed revocations Supplemental analyses for individual with SMI or SUD Inferential recidivism analyses Behavioral Health Care Services District Attorney s Office Community Development Agency Probation Department Public Defender s Office Sheriff s Office

14. Analytic Techniques 14 Analytic Technique Description Descriptive Statistics Frequencies, means, and percentages used to describe population characteristics; service utilization and outcomes; and recidivism. Logistic Regression Examines the probability of an event occurring, in this case, the probability of recidivism. Results will indicate the estimated probability of recidivism, accounting for additional factors including age, gender, race, service receipt, and AB 109 classification status. Survival Analysis Examines the amount of time it takes for a given outcome to occur, in this case, recidivism. Based in public health research, this is a particularly useful approach for analyzing data where individuals have different periods of time during which an outcome could occur (i.e., people who have been under Probation s supervision longer have had greater opportunity to recidivate).

15. Questions and Answers 15

16. Next Steps 16 Continue data collection and analysis for AB 109 Client Overview and Outcome Analysis Vet preliminary findings with CCP-EC partners

17. Contact Us! 17 Ardavan Davaran adavaran@resourcedevelopment.net 510.269.2075 David Onek donek@resourcedevelopment.net 510.488.3820