2016 LTSA Update Summary

The 2016 LTSA Update covers the Long-Term System Assessment using scenario-based modeling to identify transmission system needs in ERCOT. Various scenarios and results are discussed, focusing on retirement processes, regional haze affected units, and scenario summary outcomes driven by natural gas prices and solar capital costs. The report outlines the identification of long-term transmission projects to address economic and reliability needs.

• LTSA Update
• Transmission System
• Scenario Analysis
• ERCOT
• Energy Forecast

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1. 2016 LTSA Update Doug Murray 6/21/2016

2. Agenda Introduction Scenario Retirement Process Scenario Summary Results Appendix

3. Introduction The Long-Term System Assessment (LTSA) uses a scenario-based modeling approach to identify long-term transmission system needs Eight scenarios were developed by Regional Planning Group stakeholders based on a review of trends and forecasts of a variety of drivers influencing the future of the ERCOT grid Scenario descriptions are provided in previous LTSA presentations (link: http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/key_documents_lists/75283/2016_LTSA_Scenario_Assumpti ons.pptx) All scenarios, including the Current Trends scenario, assume full implementation of the Regional Haze rule (which is currently finalized but subject to ongoing litigation). Project Status: ERCOT has completed the generation expansion analysis for all scenarios, identifying generation additions and retirements for each Based on these results, ERCOT will select 2 or 3 of the scenarios for detailed transmission analysis to identify long-term transmission projects to address system economic and reliability needs Final report will be completed in December 2016 3

4. Scenario Retirement Process Resource expansion analyses indicate that most of the coal units affected by the Regional Haze rule, if implemented as designed, are likely to retire across the scenarios studied. These retiring units include: Coal units required to retrofit with new scrubbers under the Regional Haze rule (retire by Feb. 2021) Big Brown 1 and 2, Monticello 1 and 2, Coleto Creek (3,018 MW) Coal units required to upgrade existing scrubbers under the Regional Haze rule and located in a county proposed for nonattainment with the 2010 SO2 standard (retire by Feb. 2019) Monticello 3, Martin Lake 1, 2, and 3 (3,260 MW) Modeling analysis indicates retirement of these units consistent with the 2019 2021 Regional Haze regulatory deadlines although earlier retirements would be possible depending on unit-specific capital investment requirements. Additional unit retirements have been assessed by scenario using unit- specific economic analysis 4

5. Regional Haze Affected Units in ERCOT Monticello 3 Monticello 1, 2 Martin Lake 1, 2, 3 Big Brown 1, 2 Sandow 4 Limestone 1, 2 San Miguel Coleto Creek 5

6. Scenario Summary Results Main drivers of scenario results are natural gas price and solar capital costs Large amounts of solar built in all scenarios Unserved energy occurs in all scenarios and occurs mainly in the early evening hours following solar down ramp (slide 11) Storage units in the High Storage/Electric Vehicle Adoption scenario operate mainly during times of high solar ramping Sensitivity with higher amounts of storage should be analyzed Impact of large amounts of electric vehicles appears minimal if charging is controlled 6

7. 2031 Capacity by Scenario Chart includes added and retired capacity Wind and solar capacity shown based on CDR capacity contributions 7

8. Scenario Additions by 2031 Capacity additions vary by scenario from a low of 14,500 MW in the Low NG Price scenario to a high of 40,532 MW in the Extreme Weather Scenario Most capacity additions are solar and vary from a low of 14,500 MW to a high of 28,100 MW 8

9. Scenario Retirements by 2031 Retirements vary by scenario from a low of 9,417 MW in the Low NG Price scenario to a high of 25,112 MW in the Environmental Mandate Scenario Most of the natural gas units retired are old steam units; most of the coal unit retirements are due to the Regional Haze rule and the added carbon price in the Environmental Mandate scenario 9

10. Current Trends Capacity by Type 2017 vs 2031 All scenarios show roughly the same transition from 2017 to 2031 A substantial reduction in coal capacity and a large increase in solar 10

11. 2031 Evening Solar Issue All scenarios show roughly the same shortage of capacity in the evening hours because of the large amounts of installed solar 11

12. Questions Contact info: Doug Murray douglas.murray@ercot.com 512.248.6908 Julie Jin julie.jin@ercot.com 512.248.3982 Sandeep Borkar sandeep.borkar@ercot.com 512.248.6642 12

13. Appendix 13

14. Current Trends Results Description Units 2017 2022 2026 2031 CC Adds CT Adds Coal Adds Nuclear Adds Storage Adds Geothermal Adds Solar Adds Wind Adds Annual Capacity Additions Cumulative Capacity Additions Economic Retirements Retirements due to Regional Haze Other Retirements Residential Demand Response Industrial Demand Response Reserve Margin Coincident Peak Average LMP Natural Gas Price Average Market Heat Rate Natural Gas Generation Coal Generation Wind Generation Solar Generation Scarcity Hours Unserved Energy SO2 CO2 NOx MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW % MW $/MWh $/mmbtu MMbtu/MWh % % % % HRS GWhs Tons (k) Tons Tons 297,934 202,042 100,620 - - - - - - 13,500 3,867 1,425 79,125 52.08 88,040 180,669 75,355 - - - - - - 20,200 6,377 1,565 81,787 90.38 14.39 87,439 180,038 75,440 - - - - - - Unserved energy in 2026 and 2031 77,284 42.45 88,867 178,395 74,372 - - - - - Reserve margin in final year 10.4% Built 20,200 MW solar 1,100 - 1,100 1,100 721 - - 293 1,172 22.8 74,552 31.26 3.74 8.36 39.4 28.1 17.7 7,500 - 7,500 8,600 3,010 6,278 850 328 1,312 15.9 4,900 - 4,900 6,700 - 6,700 Retirements total 13,505 MW in 2031 9,808 MW of coal retirements - - - - 356 391 16.9 10.4 4.69 9.05 47.1 16.8 17.2 6.2 - - 5.45 9.56 45.5 16.8 16.5 9.0 3.0 2.1 6.28 43.6 16.1 15.8 12.5 30.0 51.9 1.6 - - 14

15. High Economic Growth Results Description Units 2017 2022 2026 2031 CC Adds CT Adds Coal Adds Nuclear Adds Storage Adds Geothermal Adds Solar Adds Wind Adds Annual Capacity Additions Cumulative Capacity Additions Economic Retirements Retirements due to Regional Haze Other Retirements Residential Demand Response Industrial Demand Response Reserve Margin Coincident Peak Average LMP Natural Gas Price Average Market Heat Rate Natural Gas Generation Coal Generation Wind Generation Solar Generation Scarcity Hours Unserved Energy SO2 CO2 NOx MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW % MW $/MWh $/mmbtu MMbtu/MWh % % % % HRS GWhs Tons (k) Tons Tons 318,033 209,949 106,012 - - - - - - 14,300 2,766 1,425 80,528 67.43 12.37 103,261 192,643 85,183 - - - - - - 21,921 5,943 1,565 83,258 114.03 18.16 77.60 102,162 190,357 84,667 - - - - - - Small amount of unserved energy in 2026 with larger amount in 2031 78,640 52.31 11.15 102,623 191,991 84,903 - - - - - Reserve margin in final year 13.8% 1,300 - 1,300 1,300 - - - 293 1,172 22.8 75,251 32.68 3.74 8.74 37.0 30.6 17.6 7,400 - 7,400 8,700 1,552 6,278 850 328 1,312 15.8 5,500 100 5,600 7,500 121 7,621 Built 21,700 MW solar, 221 MW Wind Retirements total 13,071 MW - - - - 7,959 MW of coal retirements 356 391 16.9 13.8 4.69 5.45 6.28 44.2 20.4 16.8 6.2 - - 42.9 19.8 16.2 9.2 5.0 3.5 40.8 18.8 15.6 13.0 40.0 1.8 - - 15

16. Environmental Mandate Results Description Units 2017 2022 2026 2031 CC Adds CT Adds Coal Adds Nuclear Adds Storage Adds Geothermal Adds Solar Adds Wind Adds Annual Capacity Additions Cumulative Capacity Additions Economic Retirements Retirements due to Regional Haze Other Retirements Residential Demand Response Industrial Demand Response Reserve Margin Coincident Peak Average LMP Natural Gas Price Average Market Heat Rate Natural Gas Generation Coal Generation Wind Generation Solar Generation Scarcity Hours Unserved Energy SO2 CO2 NOx MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW % MW $/MWh $/mmbtu MMbtu/MWh % % % % HRS GWhs Tons (k) Tons Tons 192,131 178,218 74,798 - - - - - - 1,117 190 - - - - 7,400 3,530 12,237 25,992 13,313 1,425 78,077 104.80 19.23 3,319 125,067 44,300 2,234 950 - - - - 8,800 1,539 13,523 39,515 17,984 1,565 78,650 120.61 19.21 1,030 111,377 39,845 Unserved energy in 2022, 2026 and 2031 10,000 10,000 13,755 8,218 6,278 1,312 76,933 69.77 14.88 30,801 143,605 51,308 - - - - - Reserve margin in final year 12.9% 1,900 1,855 3,755 3,755 6,084 - - 293 1,172 15.7 74,549 31.17 3.74 8.33 46.8 Built 28,100 MW solar - Retirements total 25,112 MW - - - - 18,288 MW of coal retirements 850 328 356 391 11.6 15.9 12.9 4.69 5.45 6.28 53.7 4.2 17.6 7.9 10.0 8.4 51.4 0.1 19.9 11.9 31.0 60.0 47.1 - 20.4 16.7 38.0 95.1 1.3 18.2 2.1 - - 16

17. Texas Recession Results Description Units 2017 2022 2026 2031 CC Adds CT Adds Coal Adds Nuclear Adds Storage Adds Geothermal Adds Solar Adds Wind Adds Annual Capacity Additions Cumulative Capacity Additions Economic Retirements Retirements due to Regional Haze Other Retirements Residential Demand Response Industrial Demand Response Reserve Margin Coincident Peak Average LMP Natural Gas Price Average Market Heat Rate Natural Gas Generation Coal Generation Wind Generation Solar Generation Scarcity Hours Unserved Energy SO2 CO2 NOx MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW % MW $/MWh $/mmbtu MMbtu/MWh % % % % HRS GWhs Tons (k) Tons Tons 297,932 202,053 100,637 - - - - - - 11,600 6,377 1,425 75,450 46.93 87,590 172,911 72,413 - - - - - - 17,800 8,547 1,565 78,145 73.80 11.75 87,219 172,862 72,650 - - - - - - Small amount of unserved energy in 2031 73,647 34.94 86,321 169,832 70,911 - - - - - Reserve margin in final year 10.4% 1,100 - 1,100 1,100 721 - - 293 1,172 22.8 74,552 31.35 3.74 8.38 39.4 28.1 17.1 6,100 - 6,100 7,200 4,087 6,278 850 328 1,312 18.7 4,400 - 4,400 6,200 - 6,200 Built 17,800 MW solar Retirements total 15,675 MW - - - - 9,808 MW of coal retirements 356 391 17.4 10.4 4.69 7.45 45.8 17.3 18.0 5.7 - - 5.45 8.61 44.3 17.4 17.3 8.3 - - 6.28 42.4 16.8 16.5 11.7 16.0 24.2 1.6 - - 17

18. Low Natural Gas Results Description Units 2017 2022 2026 2031 CC Adds CT Adds Coal Adds Nuclear Adds Storage Adds Geothermal Adds Solar Adds Wind Adds Annual Capacity Additions Cumulative Capacity Additions Economic Retirements Retirements due to Regional Haze Other Retirements Residential Demand Response Industrial Demand Response Reserve Margin Coincident Peak Average LMP Natural Gas Price Average Market Heat Rate Natural Gas Generation Coal Generation Wind Generation Solar Generation Scarcity Hours Unserved Energy SO2 CO2 NOx MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW % MW $/MWh $/mmbtu MMbtu/MWh % % % % HRS GWhs Tons (k) Tons Tons 161,656 174,830 73,150 - - - - - - 10,800 1,425 79,712 38.90 10.32 42,731 162,955 59,873 - - - - - - 14,500 1,565 82,367 47.35 11.84 38,800 164,629 60,755 - - - - - - Small amount of unserved energy in 2026 and 2031 77,875 35.13 48,077 161,716 59,935 - - - - - Reserve margin in final year 8.7% 500 - 500 500 2,289 - - 293 1,172 21.5 74,551 29.81 3.37 8.85 52.3 15.7 17.7 6,800 - 6,800 7,300 - 6,278 850 328 1,312 13.5 3,500 - 3,500 3,700 - 3,700 Built 14,500 MW solar Retirements total 9,417 MW - - - - - - 9,417 MW of coal retirements 356 391 14.8 8.7 3.59 9.79 57.2 7.9 17.0 5.4 - - 3.77 4.00 57.4 6.9 16.4 7.3 3.0 0.4 57.3 5.9 15.7 9.2 7.0 9.5 1.3 - - 18

19. High EE and DG Results Description Units 2017 2022 2026 2031 CC Adds CT Adds Coal Adds Nuclear Adds Storage Adds Geothermal Adds Solar Adds Wind Adds Annual Capacity Additions Cumulative Capacity Additions Economic Retirements Retirements due to Regional Haze Other Retirements Residential Demand Response Industrial Demand Response Reserve Margin Coincident Peak Average LMP Natural Gas Price Average Market Heat Rate Natural Gas Generation Coal Generation Wind Generation Solar Generation Scarcity Hours Unserved Energy SO2 CO2 NOx MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW 297,845 202,028 100,593 - - - - - - 12,800 6,194 1,566 76,361 49.76 87,571 173,835 72,763 - - - - - - 17,900 14,526 1,720 72,111 77.41 12.33 84,766 155,494 66,864 - - - - - - Small amount of unserved energy in 2026 and 2031 76,463 40.51 88,613 176,583 73,655 - - - - - Reserve margin in final year 11.6% 1,100 - 1,100 1,100 721 - - 322 1,289 23.0 74,549 31.23 3.74 8.35 39.4 28.1 17.7 7,100 - 7,100 8,200 3,010 6,278 850 361 1,443 16.9 4,600 - 4,600 5,100 - 5,100 Built 17,900 MW solar Retirements total 21,654 MW - - - - 9,808 MW of coal retirements MW MW % MW $/MWh $/mmbtu MMbtu/MWh % % % % HRS GWhs Tons (k) Tons Tons 392 430 17.6 11.6 4.69 8.64 46.8 16.9 17.3 6.1 - - 5.45 9.13 44.2 17.2 17.1 8.9 2.0 0.8 6.28 38.6 17.4 17.8 10.5 22.0 37.7 1.6 - - 20

20. Extreme Weather Scenario Included a drought similar to the 1950 s between the years 2022 and 2027 New combined cycle capital costs increased to account for dry cooling Assumed generator de-rates/outages due to water supply impacts De-rates/outages ranged from a total impact of 200 MW in 2022 to 13,000 MW by 2027 De-rates/outages due to water supply availability, temperature limits in water permits, and impacts to the operation of hydro units 20

21. Extreme Weather Results Description Units 2017 2022 2026 2031 CC Adds CT Adds Coal Adds Nuclear Adds Storage Adds Geothermal Adds Solar Adds Wind Adds Annual Capacity Additions Cumulative Capacity Additions Economic Retirements Retirements due to Regional Haze Other Retirements Residential Demand Response Industrial Demand Response Reserve Margin Coincident Peak Average LMP Natural Gas Price Average Market Heat Rate Natural Gas Generation Coal Generation Wind Generation Solar Generation Scarcity Hours Unserved Energy SO2 CO2 NOx MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW % MW $/MWh $/mmbtu MMbtu/MWh % % % % HRS GWhs Tons (k) Tons Tons 315,476 205,466 104,289 - - - - - - 3,900 5,138 - - - - 8,000 2,068 19,106 33,032 4,034 1,425 84,312 102.42 18.79 93,456 174,429 66,633 40,532 13,745 1,565 81,825 75.90 12.09 95,242 167,134 71,195 - - - - - - Small amount of unserved energy in 2022, 2026 and 2031 10,000 11,257 13,926 4,034 6,278 1,312 81,040 82.74 17.64 99,663 187,510 80,449 950 - - - - Reserve margin in final year 16.8% 1,700 969 2,669 2,669 979 - - 293 1,172 23.6 74,551 32.41 3.74 8.67 36.0 30.5 18.4 7,500 - 7,500 Built 27,200 MW solar, 3,344 MW of wind and roughly 10,000 MW of NG 307 Retirements total 20,873 MW - - - - 850 328 8,826 MW of coal retirements 356 391 10.9 9.8 16.8 4.69 5.45 6.28 44.3 18.4 17.2 7.8 24.0 30.0 42.6 15.7 18.2 11.9 34.0 57.8 36.6 16.9 18.1 16.3 14.0 23.7 2.0 - - 22

22. High EV and Storage Adoption Scenario Assumes penetration of 1.6 million electric vehicles by 2031 Added 500 MW of CAES units and 500 MW of batteries Load forecast was adjusted to account for 1,000 MW of residential/commercial batteries 22

23. High EV and Storage Results Description Units 2017 2022 2026 2031 CC Adds CT Adds Coal Adds Nuclear Adds Storage Adds Battery Adds Solar Adds Wind Adds Annual Capacity Additions Cumulative Capacity Additions Economic Retirements Retirements due to Regional Haze Other Retirements Residential Demand Response Industrial Demand Response Reserve Margin Coincident Peak Average LMP Natural Gas Price Average Market Heat Rate Natural Gas Generation Coal Generation Wind Generation Solar Generation Scarcity Hours Unserved Energy SO2 CO2 NOx MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW % MW $/MWh $/mmbtu MMbtu/MWh % % % % HRS GWhs Tons (k) Tons Tons 304,635 203,186 101,608 - - - - - - 13,000 4,223 1,425 79,219 53.11 92,130 184,915 77,384 - - - - - - 15,640 4,443 1,565 81,187 73.70 11.74 95,094 192,939 80,978 - - - - - Small amount of unserved energy in 2026 and 2031 77,291 41.94 89,720 180,380 74,996 - - - - - Reserve margin in final year 9.4% 40 1,100 - 1,100 1,100 978 - - 293 1,172 24.2 74,551 31.49 3.74 8.42 38.9 28.6 17.7 7,100 - 7,100 8,200 3,267 6,278 850 328 1,312 16.8 4,800 - 4,800 2,600 - 2,640 Built 15,600 MW solar, Retirements total 10,721MW 9,417 MW of coal retirements - - - - 356 391 17.5 9.4 4.69 8.94 47.2 17.0 17.1 6.0 - - 5.45 9.74 45.9 17.0 16.3 8.6 3.0 2.0 6.28 46.3 16.6 15.5 9.7 12.0 16.5 1.6 - - 22