Essex Police and Crime Plan 2016-2020 Performance Update November 2019
The November 2019 update on Essex Police's performance under the Police and Crime Plan 2016-2020 reveals a 13.6% increase in all crime for the period to November 2019 compared to the previous year. While some improvements have been made in various priorities, concerns persist in areas such as local policing and domestic abuse intervention. Additionally, the report highlights changes in crime counting rules and data accuracy impacting reported crime rates in Essex. Efforts to address these challenges are ongoing to ensure public safety and improve community confidence in policing.
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Police and Crime Plan 2016-2020 Monthly Performance Update November 2019 National and MSG positions are to 30th September 2019 (Essex Police data are to 30th November 2019). Version 1.5.1 Produced December 2019 Performance Analysis Unit, Essex Police Sensitivity: Official
Executive Summary Three of the seven PFCC Priorities for Essex Police have been given a recommended grade of Good . Recommended grades have been determined with reference to comparisons with Essex Police s Most Similar Group (MSG) of forces, internal Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), and professional judgement. Four of the seven PFCC priorities 1 (More local, visible and accessible policing), 3 (Breaking the cycle of domestic abuse), 4 (Reverse the trend in serious violence) and 6 (Protecting children & vulnerable people) have been given a recommended grade of Requires Improvement . None of these recommended grades have changed since the July 2019 report. All Crime has risen by 13.6% for the 12 months to November 2019 compared to the 12 months to November 2018. It is estimated, however, that around 12.5% of this 13.6% rise (around 18,487 additional crimes) are attributed to changes to Home Office Counting Rules (HOCR) in relation to Stalking & Harassment, as well as a more rigorous approach to Crime Data Accuracy (CDA). Analysis conducted by Essex Police suggests that while there has been an actual increase in crime (i.e. an increase in offences reported not as a result of improved CDA or changes to HOCR), this is at a lower rate to the increases being driven by improved CDA and changes to HOCR. Essex was graded as Outstanding in its recent HMICFRS Crime Data Integrity (CDI) inspection. Essex Police solved 1,260 more crimes in the 12 months to November 2019 compared to the 12 months to November 2018; this equates to a 5.8% increase. However, the All Crime solved rate continues to decline due to the increase in the number of crimes reported. The solved rate is currently 13.7%. Confidence in local policing (Essex Police internal survey) deteriorated for the 12 months to June 2019 compared to the 12 months to June 2018 (65.6% June 2019 v. 68.9% June 2018). Confidence in the local police from the Crime Survey of England and Wales (CSEW) places Essex eighth in its MSG, and 9.4% points below the MSG average. Please note that on Wednesday 23 October 2019 the bodies of 39 Vietnamese nationals were discovered in a lorry trailer in Grays. This tragic incident is reflected in the Homicide numbers. 2
Priority 1 - More local, visible and accessible policing Grade: Requires Improvement Essex per 1,000 pop. MSG Ave per 1,000 pop. # diff. Essex MSG Position 12 months to November 2018 12 months to November 2019 Number Difference % Police Priority Indicators Difference 14.1 8 Number of all crime offences 148,331 168,478 20,147 13.6 92.2 78.2 Essex experienced a 13.6% increase in All Crime (20,147 additional offences) for the 12 months to November 2019 compared to the 12 months to November 2018. Essex is eighth in its Most Similar Group of forces (MSG) for crime per 1,000 population. The increase in offences can, in part, be attributed to changes to Home Office Counting Rules in relation to Stalking & Harassment, as well as better Crime Data Accuracy (CDA). It is estimated that around 12.5% of the 13.6% rise (around 18,487 additional crimes) are as a result of improved CDA and changes to HOCR. Essex was graded as Outstanding in its recent HMICFRS Crime Data Integrity (CDI) inspection. Essex Police is only the third force of the 39 that have been judged as outstanding on the first visit in this inspection programme. 3
Priority 1 - More local, visible and accessible policing Grade: Requires Improvement 12 months to Jun 2018 12 months to Jun 2019 % pt. % Police Priority Indicators Difference Difference Percentage of people who have confidence in policing in Essex (internal survey Q13b) 68.9 65.6 -3.3 - Confidence Interval 1.2 1.1 Essex MSG Ave # diff. Essex MSG Position 12 months to Jun 2018 12 months to Jun 2019 Number Difference % Police Priority Indicators Difference 56.1 -9.4 8 Confidence in the local police (Crime Survey of England and Wales) 50.1 46.7 -3.4 - 46.7 Confidence Interval 4.2 4.1 4.1 1.5 Confidence (Essex Police internal survey) is at 65.6% (results to the 12 months to June 2019). Compared to year ending June 2018, confidence in the local police has significantly decreased (deterioration of 3.3% points). Confidence in the local police from the Crime Survey of England and Wales (CSEW) places Essex eighth in its MSG, and 9.4% points below the MSG average. However, the sample size from this survey is not representative at a sufficiently small scale to measure local issues. The Essex Police internal survey (results detailed above) was therefore introduced to achieve a more accurate local measure with a small margin of error. The results from the Essex Police survey show that the Force performs significantly better on confidence in local policing than the results from the CSEW, which asks the same question. Due to the fact that Essex is 8th in its MSG for both crime per 1,000 population and for confidence in local police (CSEW), and that the Essex Police internal survey shows a deterioration in confidence in local police, a grade of Requires Improvement is recommended. 4
Priority 2 - Crack down on anti-social behaviour Grade: Good 12 months to November 2018 12 months to November 2019 Number Difference % Police Priority Indicators Difference Number of anti-social behaviour incidents 47,395 42,368 -5,027 -10.6 Essex MSG Ave # diff. Essex MSG Position 12 months to Jun 2018 12 months to Jun 2019 Number Difference % Police Priority Indicators Difference 5.9 -1.7 3 ASB Perception:- Perception that ASB is a problem (CSEW) 9.1 4.2 -4.9 - 4.2 Confidence Interval 5.3 2.8 2.8 1.6 12 months to Jun 2018 12 months to Jun 2019 % pt. Police Priority Indicators Difference Percentage of people who have confidence Essex Police and the organisations they work with are dealing with ASB (internal survey Q8a) 68.4 62.8 -5.6 Confidence Interval 1.1 1.2 Essex experienced a 10.6% reduction (5,027 fewer) in Anti-Social Behaviour (ASB) incidents for the 12 months to November 2019 compared to the 12 months to November 2018. Part of this decrease is due to better Crime Data Accuracy (CDA); more incidents reported as ASB are now being correctly recorded as crimes. Some of the decrease may also be due to people reporting incidents directly to the Council and Housing Authorities. ASB Perception (from the Crime Survey of England and Wales) in Essex experienced a 4.9% point decrease (improvement). Essex is 1.7% points better than the MSG average; this places Essex third in its Most Similar Group of forces. However, results of Essex s internal survey significantly decreased in relation to how well Essex and the organisations they work with deal with ASB (deterioration of 5.6% points). Due to the reduction in ASB incidents, and the fact that ASB Perception is better than the MSG average, a grade of Good is recommended. 5
Grade: Requires Improvement Priority 3 - Breaking the cycle of domestic abuse 12 months to November 2018 12 months to November 2019 Number Difference % Police Priority Indicators Difference Number of incidents of domestic abuse 40,081 42,863 2,782 6.9 Number of repeat incidents of domestic abuse 17,940 20,637 2,697 15.0 12 months to November 2018 12 months to November 2019 Number Difference % Police Priority Indicators Difference Percentage of domestic abuse offences solved 13.9 10.4 -3.5 - Total domestic abuse offences solved 3,218 3,076 -142 -4.4 High Risk domestic abuse offences solved 876 777 -99 -11.3 Medium Risk domestic abuse offences solved 1,080 995 -85 -7.9 Standard Risk domestic abuse offences solved 1,116 1,126 10 0.9 Essex experienced a 6.9% increase (2,782 more) in Domestic Abuse incidents and a 15.0% increase (2,697 more) in repeat incidents of Domestic Abuse for the 12 months to November 2019 compared to the 12 months to November 2018. The increase in crime, in part, can be attributed to better Crime Data Accuracy (CDA), and changes to Home Office Counting Rules (HOCR) in relation to Stalking & Harassment. The Domestic Abuse solved rate fell by 3.5% points to 10.4% during the same period. The number of offences solved has also fallen by 142 offences. Due to the increase in repeat incidents and the decrease in both the solved rate and the solved volume, a grade of Requires Improvement is recommended. 6
Grade: Requires Improvement Priority 4 - Reverse the trend in serious violence Essex per 1,000 pop. MSG Ave per 1,000 pop. # diff. Essex MSG Position 12 months to November 2018 12 months to November 2019 Number Difference % Police Priority Indicators Difference 0.001 0.003 6 4 Number of homicides 15 62 47 313.3 0.009 0.008 Number of violence with injury offences (new definition from Nov 2017) 14,121 15,371 1,250 8.9 8.372 8.369 Essex saw an increase of 47 Homicides (to 62 offences) for the 12 months to November 2019 compared to the 12 months to November 2018. This includes the tragic incident where 39 Vietnamese nationals were discovered in a lorry trailer in Grays. Essex is sixth in its Most Similar Group (MSG) of forces for offences per 1,000 population, and slightly higher than the MSG average. There was an 8.9% increase (1,250 more offences) in Violence with Injury. Essex is fourth in its MSG for offences per 1,000 population, and is slightly worse than the MSG average. The increase in this offence is, in part, due to the rise in domestic abuse related Violence with Injury (18.2% increase, 837 more offences); 35.4% of Violence with Injury is domestic abuse-related. Due to the fact that Essex continues to experience an increase in Violence with Injury, a grade of Requires Improvement is recommended. 7
Priority 5 - Tackle gangs and organised crime Grade: Good 12 months to November 2018 12 months to November 2019 Number Difference % Police Priority Indicators Difference Number of Organised Criminal Group disruptions* 98 80 - - Trafficking of drugs arrests 1,395 1,935 540 38.7 80 Organised Crime Group (OCG) disruptions were conducted in Essex between January 2019 and November 2019.* In January 2019 there was a change in the way in which the number of OCG disruptions were counted; this follows National Crime Agency (NCA) and Eastern Region Special Operations Unit (ERSOU) guidance to ensure that all forces record disruptions in the same way. Previous data periods are not directly comparable but are included for completeness. Trafficking of drug arrests, which are also as a result of police proactivity, increased by 38.7% (540 more) for the 12 months to November 2019 compared to the 12 months to November 2018. In the same period, there has also been 25.2% more trafficking of drugs offences recorded (185 more offences to 920). Due to the increase in Trafficking of Drug Arrests, a grade of Good is recommended. *Please note that the number of Organised Crime Group disruptions are not directly comparable due to a change in counting rules that occurred in January 2019. Direct comparisons will start to become available from the February 2020 Monthly Performance Report (when January 2020 can be compared to January 2019). 8
Priority 6 - Protecting children & vulnerable people Grade: Requires Improvement 12 months to November 2018 12 months to November 2019 Number Difference % Police Priority Indicators Difference Number of child abuse outcomes 221 235 14 6.3 Child abuse solved rate 6.7 4.6 -2.1 - There was a 6.3% increase (14 more) in the number of positive solved Child Abuse Outcomes in the 12 months to November 2019 compared to the 12 months to November 2018. There was a 2.1% point decrease in the solved rate (from 6.7% to 4.6%). 54.6% more offences (an additional 1,802) were recorded in the 12 months to November 2019 compared to the 12 months to November 2018. In spite of the small increase in the number of Child Abuse solved outcomes, there is still a large reduction in the solved rate. A grade of Requires Improvement is therefore recommended. 9
Priority 7 - Improve safety on our roads Grade: Good Essex (per 100 million km) MSG Ave (per 100 million km) # diff. Essex MSG Position 12 months to November 2018 12 months to November 2019 Number Difference % Police Priority Indicators Difference 0.185 6 All people killed or seriously injured (KSI) in road collisions 871 813 -58 -6.7 1.287 1.102 Number of driving related mobile phone crime on Essex roads 2,814 1,971 -843 -30.0 Number of driving under the influence of drink and/or drugs on Essex roads 2,585 3,631 1,046 40.5 Rolling 12 months KSI - All KSI - Fatalities KSI - Serious injuries Number of Collisions 12m to Nov 18 871 52 819 871 12m to Nov 19 813 44 769 798 Number Diff -58 -8 -50 -73 % Diff -6.7% -15.4% -6.1% -8.4% There was a 6.7% decrease (58 fewer) in the numbers of those Killed or Seriously Injured (KSI) in Essex for the 12 months to November 2019 compared to the 12 months to November 2018. Essex is placed sixth in its Most Similar Group (MSG) of forces for casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres (results to December 2018). There has been a 30.0% decrease in mobile phone crime (843 fewer offences) and a 40.5% increase (1,046 more offences) in drink/drug driving. Due to the decrease in KSIs, a grade of Good is recommended. As of December 2018, Essex was slightly below the MSG average per 100 million km. However, due to the fact that more recent figures are not yet available, the current position cannot be included. 10
Monthly Performance Overview: Exceptions Exceptions Overview The following offence types experienced statistically significant changes for the month of November: Other Theft, Trafficking of Drugs and Possession of Drugs. Other Theft * 2.4% decrease (321 fewer offences) for the 12 months to November 2019 compared to the 12 months to November 2018. The Force saw a statistically exceptional decrease in the month of November 2019. Trafficking of Drugs 25.2% increase (185 more offences) for the 12 months to November 2019 compared to the 12 months to November 2018. The Force saw a statistically exceptional increase in the month of November 2019. The proportion that Cannabis (Possession of a controlled drug with intent to supply Class B Cannabis) makes up within the offence group Trafficking of Drugs, has increased from 19.2% to 23.7%. This increase is likely to be attributed to an increased use of Stop and Search powers as part of pro-active police activity. Possession of Drugs 62.1% increase (1,815 more offences) for the 12 months to November 2019 compared to the 12 months to November 2018. The Force saw a statistically exceptional increase in the month of November 2019. Cannabis has seen the largest numerical increase 1,654 (69.9% more); the proportion has also risen from 80.4% to 84.5% of all possession of drugs. This increase is likely to be attributed to an increased use of Stop and Search powers as part of pro-active police activity. * Other Theft comprises: Blackmail, Theft in a Dwelling, Theft by an Employee, Theft of mail, Dishonest Use of Electricity, Theft from Automatic Machines or Meters, Other Theft or Unauthorised Taking, Making Off without Payment 11
2016-2020 Police and Crime Plan Performance Indicators Table 1 12 months to November 2018 12 months to November 2019 Police and Crime Plan Priorities Number Difference % Direction of Travel Police Priority Indicators Difference Percentage of people who have confidence in policing in Essex (internal survey Q13b) 68.9 1.2 50.1 4.2 148,331 65.6 1.1 46.7 4.1 168,478 -3.3 - Deteriorating Confidence Interval2 Priority 1 - More local, visible and accessible policing Confidence in the local police (CSEW)3 -3.4 - Stable Confidence Interval2 Number of all crime offences 20,147 13.6 Deteriorating Number of anti-social behaviour incidents 47,395 42,368 -5,027 -10.6 Improving Priority 2 - Crack down on anti-social behaviour Percentage of people who have confidence that the policing response to ASB is improving (internal survey Q8a)4 68.4 62.8 -5.6 - Deteriorating Confidence Interval2 1.1 1.2 Number of incidents of domestic abuse Number of repeat incidents of domestic abuse Percentage of domestic abuse offences solved 40,081 17,940 13.9 42,863 20,637 10.4 2,782 2,697 -3.5 6.9 15.0 - Deteriorating Deteriorating Deteriorating Priority 3 - Breaking the cycle of domestic abuse Number of homicides * Number of violence with injury offences (new definition from Nov 2017) Priority 4 - Reverse the trend in serious violence 15 62 47 313.3 8.9 Deteriorating Deteriorating 14,121 15,371 1,250 Number of Organised Criminal Group disruptions5 Trafficking of drugs arrests Priority 5 - Tackle gangs and organised crime 98 80 - - - 1,395 1,935 540 38.7 Improving Number of child abuse outcomes6 Priority 6 - Protecting children & vulnerable people 221 6.7 235 4.6 14 -2.1 6.3 - Improving Deteriorating Child abuse solved rate Number of driving related mobile phone crime on Essex roads Number of driving under the influence of drink and/or drugs on Essex roads All people killed or seriously injured (KSI) in road collisions 2,814 2,585 871 1,971 3,631 813 -843 1046 -58 -30.0 40.5 -6.7 Improving Deteriorating Improving Priority 7 - Improve safety on our roads Please note that the number of Organised Crime Group disruptions are not directly comparable due to a change in counting rules that occurred in January 2019. Direct comparisons will start to become available from the February 2020 Monthly Performance Report (when January 2020 can be compared to January 2019). Please view above table with the explanations and caveats detailed on page 13. 12
End Notes Question from Essex Police s own confidence and perception survey (Question 13b). Results are for the period 12 months to June 2019 versus the 12 months to June 2018. 2 The confidence interval is the range +/- between where the survey result may lie. This is mainly influenced by the number of people answering the survey. The more people that answer the survey, the smaller the interval range. 3 Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW): 12 months to June 2019 vs. 12 months to June 2018. 4Question from Essex Police s own confidence and perception survey (Question 8a). Results are for the period 12 months to June 2019 versus the 12 months to June 2018. 5 From January 2019, activity has been recorded rather than the number of people arrested. If there was a day of action, for example, and five people were arrested, this would formerly have counted as five disruptions, but now will count as one. The change stems from confusion over the previous guidelines, with police forces counting disruptions in different ways. The data are for January 2019 to October 2019. Previous data periods are not directly comparable but have been included for completeness. 6 Solved outcomes are crimes that result in: charge or summons, caution, crimes taken into consideration, fixed penalty notice, cannabis warning or community resolution. 7 Killed or Seriously Injured (KSI) refers to all people killed or seriously injured on Essex s roads, regardless of whether any criminal offences were committed. Causing Death/Serious Injury by Dangerous/Inconsiderate Driving offences (detailed on p.14) refers to the number of crimes of this type. *Please note that on Wednesday 23 October 2019 the bodies of 39 Vietnamese nationals were discovered in a lorry trailer in Grays. This tragic incident is reflected in the Homicide numbers. 13
Crime Tree Data Rolling 12 Months to November Table 2 Force Crime Tree Data - Rolling 12 Months to November Offences Solved Outcomes Solved Rates % Top Level % DA 2019 - CSS1m Nov 1m Nov 19 - Yr on Yr 1m % diff. - 3m Nov 18 - 3m Nov 19 - Yr on Yr 3m % diff. - 1m Nov 18 - 1m Nov 19 - Yr on Yr 1m % diff. - 3m Nov 18 - 3m Nov 19 - Yr on Yr 3m % diff. - % pt. diff. - 1m Nov 18 - 1m Nov 19 - Yr on Yr 1m % pt. diff. - 3m Nov 18 - 3m Nov 19 - Yr on Yr 3m % pt. diff. - Crime Type 2018 2019 # diff. % diff. Z 2018 2019 # diff. % diff. 2018 2019 Z 18 - Anti-Social Behaviour (incidents) 47395 42368 -5027 -10.6 -1.6 - - - - - - - - All Crime (excl. Action (NFIB) Fraud) 17.6 148331 168478 20147 13.6 0.8 13764 13661 -0.7 40311 41628 3.3 21840 23100 1260 5.8 1884 1806 -4.1 5894 5334 -9.5 14.7 13.7 -1.0 -0.8 13.7 13.2 -0.5 14.6 12.8 -1.8 - State Based Crime 7.6 20845 26403 5558 26.7 1.1 1980 2146 8.4 5748 6534 13.7 7081 8615 1534 21.7 694 735 5.9 2077 2152 3.6 34.0 32.6 -1.3 -0.2 35.1 34.2 -0.8 36.1 32.9 -3.2 - Victim Based Crime 19.5 127486 142075 14589 11.4 0.8 11784 11515 -2.3 34563 35094 1.5 14759 14485 -274 -1.9 1190 1071 -10.0 3817 3182 -16.6 11.6 10.2 -1.4 -1.2 10.1 9.3 -0.8 11.0 9.1 -2.0 Offences Solved Outcomes Solved Rates % Victim Based Crime % DA 2019 36.2 CSS1m Nov 1m Nov 19 5198 Yr on Yr 1m % diff. 6.7 3m Nov 18 14388 3m Nov 19 16015 Yr on Yr 3m % diff. 11.3 1m Nov 18 616 1m Nov 19 534 Yr on Yr 1m % diff. -13.3 3m Nov 18 1991 3m Nov 19 1587 Yr on Yr 3m % diff. -20.3 % pt. diff. -3.4 1m Nov 18 12.6 1m Nov 19 10.3 Yr on Yr 1m % pt. diff. -2.4 3m Nov 18 13.8 3m Nov 19 9.9 Yr on Yr 3m % pt. diff. -3.9 Crime Type 2018 2019 # diff. % diff. Z 2018 2019 # diff. % diff. 2018 2019 Z 18 Violence Against the Person 51039 64285 13246 26.0 1.0 4871 7370 7102 -268 -3.6 14.4 11.0 -1.2 - Homicide 8.1 15 62 47 313.3 -0.4 17 0 0 - 0 45 - 13 51 38 292.3 0 0 - 0 44 - 86.7 82.3 -4.4 -0.9 - - - - 97.8 - - Violence with Injury 35.4 14121 15371 1250 8.9 0.8 1 1216 1278 5.1 3717 3857 3.8 2844 2418 -426 -15.0 208 182 -12.5 687 518 -24.6 20.1 15.7 -4.4 -1.4 17.1 14.2 -2.9 18.5 13.4 -5.1 - Death or Serious Injury caused by unlawful driving 4.2 45 24 -21 -46.7 -0.9 20 8 1 -87.5 15 5 -66.7 20 34 14 70.0 5 0 -100.0 6 11 83.3 44.4 141.7 97.2 -0.8 62.5 0.0 -62.5 40.0 220.0 180.0 - Death or serious injury by dangerous driving 5.3 37 19 -18 -48.6 - 8 1 -87.5 13 4 -69.2 19 25 6 31.6 4 0 -100.0 5 7 40.0 51.4 131.6 80.2 - 50.0 0.0 -50.0 38.5 175.0 136.5 - Death by careless driving (drink or drugs) - 1 0 -1 -100.0 - 0 0 - 1 0 -100.0 0 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0.0 - - - - - - 0.0 - - - Death by careless or inconsiderate driving 0.0 7 4 -3 -42.9 - 0 0 - 1 1 0.0 1 8 7 700.0 1 0 -100.0 1 3 200.0 14.3 200.0 185.7 - - - - 100.0 300.0 200.0 - Death or serious injury driving - unlicensed, disqualified, uninsured - 0 0 0 - - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - - - Violence without Injury 38.0 19594 25758 6164 31.5 1.5 7 1821 2219 21.9 5315 6693 25.9 2929 2849 -80 -2.7 257 235 -8.6 802 636 -20.7 14.9 11.1 -3.9 -1.3 14.1 10.6 -3.5 15.1 9.5 -5.6 - Stalking and Harassment 34.8 17264 23070 5806 33.6 0.6 10 1826 1700 -6.9 5341 5415 1.4 1564 1750 186 11.9 146 117 -19.9 496 378 -23.8 9.1 7.6 -1.5 -0.9 8.0 6.9 -1.1 9.3 7.0 -2.3 Sexual Offences 18.8 3970 4849 879 22.1 0.9 394 403 2.3 1082 1241 14.7 246 278 32 13.0 17 27 58.8 59 105 78.0 6.2 5.7 -0.5 -0.1 4.3 6.7 2.4 5.5 8.5 3.0 - Rape 34.2 1535 2021 486 31.7 1.2 163 175 7.4 421 525 24.7 43 47 4 9.3 3 6 100.0 8 20 150.0 2.8 2.3 -0.5 0.3 1.8 3.4 1.6 1.9 3.8 1.9 - Rape - Under 16 yrs 2.6 440 509 69 15.7 0.6 5 40 42 5.0 108 128 18.5 16 25 9 56.3 0 4 - 2 12 500.0 3.6 4.9 1.3 0.9 0.0 9.5 9.5 1.9 9.4 7.5 - Rape - Over 16 yrs 44.9 1095 1512 417 38.1 1.3 3 123 133 8.1 313 397 26.8 27 22 -5 -18.5 3 2 -33.3 6 8 33.3 2.5 1.5 -1.0 -0.6 2.4 1.5 -0.9 1.9 2.0 0.1 - Other Sexual Offences 7.9 2435 2828 393 16.1 0.6 4 231 228 -1.3 661 716 8.3 203 231 28 13.8 14 21 50.0 51 85 66.7 8.3 8.2 -0.2 0.0 6.1 9.2 3.1 7.7 11.9 4.2 - Other sexual offences : Under 13 1.6 646 634 -12 -1.9 - 75 56 -25.3 174 157 -9.8 47 48 1 2.1 4 2 -50.0 16 20 25.0 7.3 7.6 0.3 - 5.3 3.6 -1.8 9.2 12.7 3.5 - Other sexual offences : Under 16 1.5 649 816 167 25.7 - 77 68 -11.7 199 203 2.0 64 82 18 28.1 4 7 75.0 19 25 31.6 9.9 10.0 0.2 - 5.2 10.3 5.1 9.5 12.3 2.8 - Other sexual offences : Age 13 to 17 0.0 22 20 -2 -9.1 - 1 0 -100.0 5 5 0.0 4 1 -3 -75.0 0 0 - 1 0 -100.0 18.2 5.0 -13.2 - 0.0 - - 20.0 0.0 -20.0 - Other sexual offences : Over 13 17.9 866 1051 185 21.4 - 59 87 47.5 220 282 28.2 65 66 1 1.5 4 6 50.0 10 28 180.0 7.5 6.3 -1.2 - 6.8 6.9 0.1 4.5 9.9 5.4 - Other sexual offences : Over 16 12.5 9 8 -1 -11.1 - 1 1 0.0 4 3 -25.0 0 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - Other sexual offences : Not Age Specific 3.7 243 299 56 23.0 - 18 16 -11.1 59 66 11.9 23 34 11 47.8 2 6 200.0 5 12 140.0 9.5 11.4 1.9 - 11.1 37.5 26.4 8.5 18.2 9.7 Robbery 1.5 1616 1787 171 10.6 -0.4 151 125 -17.2 467 403 -13.7 217 202 -15 -6.9 11 18 63.6 50 47 -6.0 13.4 11.3 -2.1 0.3 7.3 14.4 7.1 10.7 11.7 1.0 - Robbery of business property 0.0 179 170 -9 -5.0 -0.5 14 15 12 -20.0 41 32 -22.0 40 38 -2 -5.0 3 2 -33.3 9 5 -44.4 22.3 22.4 0.0 -0.5 20.0 16.7 -3.3 22.0 15.6 -6.3 - Robbery of Personal Property 1.7 1437 1617 180 12.5 -0.3 6 136 113 -16.9 426 371 -12.9 177 164 -13 -7.3 8 16 100.0 41 42 2.4 12.3 10.1 -2.2 0.7 5.9 14.2 8.3 9.6 11.3 1.7 Theft Offences 2.4 55049 53453 -1596 -2.9 -1.0 4993 4273 -14.4 14702 13020 -11.4 5180 5352 172 3.3 408 378 -7.4 1265 1123 -11.2 9.4 10.0 0.6 -0.5 8.2 8.8 0.7 8.6 8.6 0.0 - Burglary 1.6 12360 10643 -1717 -13.9 -0.6 1235 927 -24.9 3371 2531 -24.9 633 668 35 5.5 47 27 -42.6 146 105 -28.1 5.1 6.3 1.2 -1.2 3.8 2.9 -0.9 4.3 4.1 -0.2 - Burglary Residential 2.2 8859 7784 -1075 -12.1 - 2 953 728 -23.6 2518 1938 -23.0 395 444 49 12.4 25 12 -52.0 84 63 -25.0 4.5 5.7 1.2 - 2.6 1.6 -1.0 3.3 3.3 -0.1 - Burglary Business & Community 0.0 3501 2859 -642 -18.3 - 11 282 199 -29.4 853 593 -30.5 238 224 -14 -5.9 22 15 -31.8 62 42 -32.3 6.8 7.8 1.0 - 7.8 7.5 -0.3 7.3 7.1 -0.2 - Burglary Dwelling (pre-Apr 17 definition) 3.0 6332 5554 -778 -12.3 -0.6 722 474 -34.3 1772 1317 -25.7 367 411 44 12.0 24 11 -54.2 79 59 -25.3 5.8 7.4 1.6 -1.1 3.3 2.3 -1.0 4.5 4.5 0.0 - Burglary Other (pre-Apr 17 definition) 0.1 6028 5089 -939 -15.6 -0.4 513 453 -11.7 1599 1214 -24.1 266 257 -9 -3.4 23 16 -30.4 67 46 -31.3 4.4 5.1 0.6 -0.4 4.5 3.5 -1.0 4.2 3.8 -0.4 - Vehicle Offences (incl. Interference) 1.1 14944 15111 167 1.1 -0.3 1295 1208 -6.7 4076 3783 -7.2 315 358 43 13.7 28 20 -28.6 93 90 -3.2 2.1 2.4 0.3 -0.6 2.2 1.7 -0.5 2.3 2.4 0.1 - Theft from a Vehicle 0.3 7935 7534 -401 -5.1 -0.9 12 649 602 -7.2 2060 1933 -6.2 101 115 14 13.9 7 5 -28.6 31 37 19.4 1.3 1.5 0.3 -0.6 1.1 0.8 -0.2 1.5 1.9 0.4 - Theft of a Vehicle 2.7 4959 5388 429 8.7 0.8 9 462 461 -0.2 1455 1343 -7.7 187 192 5 2.7 15 12 -20.0 53 39 -26.4 3.8 3.6 -0.2 -0.8 3.2 2.6 -0.6 3.6 2.9 -0.7 - Vehicle Interference 0.0 2050 2189 139 6.8 -0.7 21 184 145 -21.2 561 507 -9.6 27 51 24 88.9 6 3 -50.0 9 14 55.6 1.3 2.3 1.0 0.1 3.3 2.1 -1.2 1.6 2.8 1.2 - Theft 3.4 27745 27699 -46 -0.2 -1.0 2463 2138 -13.2 7255 6706 -7.6 4232 4326 94 2.2 333 331 -0.6 1026 928 -9.6 15.3 15.6 0.4 0.1 13.5 15.5 2.0 14.1 13.8 -0.3 - Theft from the Person 2.4 1555 1317 -238 -15.3 0.4 16 129 132 2.3 384 345 -10.2 34 21 -13 -38.2 5 2 -60.0 10 6 -40.0 2.2 1.6 -0.6 -0.4 3.9 1.5 -2.4 2.6 1.7 -0.9 - Theft of Pedal Cycle 0.3 2238 2177 -61 -2.7 -0.2 19 205 185 -9.8 671 619 -7.7 50 55 5 10.0 1 4 300.0 10 14 40.0 2.2 2.5 0.3 -0.1 0.5 2.2 1.7 1.5 2.3 0.8 - Shoplifting 0.0 10516 11090 574 5.5 0.5 15 934 908 -2.8 2729 2685 -1.6 3338 3543 205 6.1 267 281 5.2 810 772 -4.7 31.7 31.9 0.2 -0.3 28.6 30.9 2.4 29.7 28.8 -0.9 - Other Theft 7.0 13436 13115 -321 -2.4 -2.2 8 1195 913 -23.6 3471 3057 -11.9 810 707 -103 -12.7 60 44 -26.7 196 136 -30.6 6.0 5.4 -0.6 -0.6 5.0 4.8 -0.2 5.6 4.4 -1.2 Criminal Damage inc. Arson 12.3 15812 17701 1889 11.9 1.5 1375 1516 10.3 3924 4415 12.5 1746 1551 -195 -11.2 138 114 -17.4 452 320 -29.2 11.0 8.8 -2.3 -1.6 10.0 7.5 -2.5 11.5 7.2 -4.3 - Criminal Damage 13.4 15322 16109 787 5.1 1.4 18 1321 1400 6.0 3779 4020 6.4 1714 1516 -198 -11.6 137 112 -18.2 442 314 -29.0 11.2 9.4 -1.8 -1.7 10.4 8.0 -2.4 11.7 7.8 -3.9 - Arson 1.4 490 1592 1102 224.9 0.9 13 54 116 114.8 145 395 172.4 32 35 3 9.4 1 2 100.0 10 6 -40.0 6.5 2.2 -4.3 -0.8 1.9 1.7 -0.1 6.9 1.5 -5.4 14
Crime Tree Data Rolling 12 Months to November Table 3 Offences Solved Outcomes Solved Rates % Victim Based: Under Reported % DA 2019 1.0 CSS1m Nov 1m Nov 19 117 Yr on Yr 1m % diff. -4.9 3m Nov 18 355 3m Nov 19 404 Yr on Yr 3m % diff. 13.8 1m Nov 18 16 1m Nov 19 21 Yr on Yr 1m % diff. 31.3 3m Nov 18 65 3m Nov 19 56 Yr on Yr 3m % diff. -13.8 % pt. diff. 2.0 1m Nov 18 13.0 1m Nov 19 17.9 Yr on Yr 1m % pt. diff. 4.9 3m Nov 18 18.3 3m Nov 19 13.9 Yr on Yr 3m % pt. diff. -4.4 Crime Type 2018 2019 # diff. % diff. Z 2018 2019 # diff. % diff. 2018 2019 Z 18 123 Racial/Religiously Aggravated Offences 1310 1569 259 19.8 0.2 197 267 70 35.5 15.0 17.0 0.2 Hate Crime HO Definition 4.0 2475 2941 466 18.8 0.0 221 206 -6.8 654 743 13.6 334 352 18 5.4 35 27 -22.9 111 79 -28.8 13.5 12.0 -1.5 0.0 15.8 13.1 -2.7 17.0 10.6 -6.3 Domestic Abuse 100.0 23129 29671 6542 28.3 1.1 2139 2432 13.7 6353 7515 18.3 3218 3076 -142 -4.4 219 230 5.0 818 703 -14.1 13.9 10.4 -3.5 -1.1 10.2 9.5 -0.8 12.9 9.4 -3.5 - High Risk Domestic Abuse 100.0 2373 2675 302 12.7 2.5 191 274 43.5 576 746 29.5 876 777 -99 -11.3 63 65 3.2 218 190 -12.8 36.9 29.0 -7.9 -1.4 33.0 23.7 -9.3 37.8 25.5 -12.4 - Medium Risk Domestic Abuse 100.0 4602 5057 455 9.9 -0.3 404 378 -6.4 1179 1210 2.6 1080 995 -85 -7.9 68 74 8.8 273 230 -15.8 23.5 19.7 -3.8 -0.7 16.8 19.6 2.7 23.2 19.0 -4.1 - Standard Risk Domestic Abuse 100.0 14714 20104 5390 36.6 1.3 1326 1623 22.4 4075 5103 25.2 1116 1126 10 0.9 73 81 11.0 266 242 -9.0 7.6 5.6 -2.0 -1.2 5.5 5.0 -0.5 6.5 4.7 -1.8 - No Risk Assessment 100.0 1440 1835 395 27.4 -0.1 218 157 -28.0 523 456 -12.8 146 178 32 21.9 15 10 -33.3 61 41 -32.8 10.1 9.7 -0.4 -0.4 6.9 6.4 -0.5 11.7 9.0 -2.7 Offences Solved Outcomes Solved Rates % State Based Crime % DA 2019 0.0 CSS1m Nov 1m Nov 19 545 Yr on Yr 1m % diff. 35.9 3m Nov 18 1062 3m Nov 19 1441 Yr on Yr 3m % diff. 35.7 1m Nov 18 359 1m Nov 19 480 Yr on Yr 1m % diff. 33.7 3m Nov 18 956 3m Nov 19 1332 Yr on Yr 3m % diff. 39.3 % pt. diff. 1.8 1m Nov 18 89.5 1m Nov 19 88.1 Yr on Yr 1m % pt. diff. -1.5 3m Nov 18 90.0 3m Nov 19 92.4 Yr on Yr 3m % pt. diff. 2.4 Crime Type 2018 2019 # diff. % diff. Z 2018 2019 # diff. % diff. 2018 2019 Z 18 401 Drug Offences 3657 5657 2000 54.7 2.4 3108 4912 1804 58.0 85.0 86.8 0.0 - Trafficking of Drugs 0.0 735 920 185 25.2 3.1 77 113 46.8 176 264 50.0 443 608 165 37.2 52 65 25.0 133 164 23.3 60.3 66.1 5.8 -0.5 67.5 57.5 -10.0 75.6 62.1 -13.4 - Possession of Drugs 0.0 2922 4737 1815 62.1 2.0 324 432 33.3 886 1177 32.8 2665 4304 1639 61.5 307 415 35.2 823 1168 41.9 91.2 90.9 -0.3 0.3 94.8 96.1 1.3 92.9 99.2 6.3 Possession of Weapons 1.0 2057 1651 -406 -19.7 0.6 174 172 -1.1 486 375 -22.8 1442 938 -504 -35.0 130 60 -53.8 382 173 -54.7 70.1 56.8 -13.3 -2.6 74.7 34.9 -39.8 78.6 46.1 -32.5 Public Order 9.0 11913 15246 3333 28.0 0.5 1089 1125 3.3 3318 3757 13.2 1980 2117 137 6.9 161 139 -13.7 567 479 -15.5 16.6 13.9 -2.7 -1.2 14.8 12.4 -2.4 17.1 12.7 -4.3 Miscellaneous Crimes against Society 16.2 3218 3849 631 19.6 0.6 316 304 -3.8 882 961 9.0 551 648 97 17.6 44 56 27.3 172 168 -2.3 17.1 16.8 -0.3 0.0 13.9 18.4 4.5 19.5 17.5 -2.0 Crime Severity Score (CSS) - Based on the ONS Crime Severity Score which replaces the Cambridge Harm Index - data are for the financial year 2018/19, (a total of 21 crime types have been ranked where scores are available). The CSS excludes proactively generated crime detection by police i.e. State Based Crime, as these offences do not reliably measure harms experienced by the population. Rather, they measure the resources invested in catching offenders. Yr on Yr 1m %/% pt. diff. - compares the month of November 2019 with the month of November 2018. Yr on Yr 3m %/% pt. diff. - compares the three months to November 2019 with the three months to November 2018. Z Score - Standard Score over 1.96 or under -1.96. Standard Scores are used to calculate the probability of an event occurring within a normal distribution; they are also used to compare two scores from different normal distributions (for example the number of offences per police District). In this document, Standard Scores are calculated in the following way: (current month's figure, minus the average figure per month over the previous three years) divided by the Standard Deviation of the same three year period. Standard Deviation is a measure to determine how spread out figures are from the average or "mean" a large standard deviation indicates the data is widely spread; if small, the data will be more clustered together. 15
