Impacts of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion on Ecosystems and Human Health: 2014 Assessment Report
Significant scientific advances in understanding the effects of stratospheric ozone depletion on ecosystems and human health were presented in the 2014 Assessment Report. The report assessed research covering various subject areas and highlighted the increased UV-B radiation levels due to ozone depletion, emphasizing the importance of the Montreal Protocol in mitigating these impacts. Short-term increases in UV-B radiation have been observed, particularly in high latitudes, underscoring the ongoing need for ozone protection efforts.
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STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION OZONE DEPLETING SUBSTANCES Climate effects (atmospheric circulation) Report of the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel 26th Meeting of the Parties to the United Nations Montreal Protocol 16-21 November 2014 Paris, France Co-chairs: Prof Janet Bornman (Aus), Prof Min Shao (China), Prof Nigel Paul (UK) TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY HUMAN HEALTH CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT
Report of the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel THE 2014 ASSESSMENT REPORTS SIGNIFICANT SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES IN UNDERSTANDING THE MECHANISMS BY WHICH STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION CAN AFFECT HUMANS, OTHER ORGANISMS, AND THE PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL PROCESSES OF THE ENVIRONMENT, PRIMARILY THROUGH RESPONSES TO UV RADIATION. 44 authors/co-authors from 17 countries, and 45 reviewers. THIS SUMMARY WILL FOCUS ON THE MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS RELEVANT TO THE EFFECTS OF OZONE DEPLETION ON PEOPLE AND ECOSYSTEMS (NOT MECHANISTIC ADVANCES) Report assessed 1600 research papers, covering subject areas from cancer biology to construction polymers, and from marine phytoplankton to global changes in UV radiation. TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY HUMAN HEALTH CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT
STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION OZONE DEPLETING SUBSTANCES Climate effects (atmospheric circulation) INCREASED ULTRAVIOLET- B (UV-B) RADIATION UV-B radiation = 280-315nm TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY HUMAN HEALTH CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT
CHANGES IN UV-B RADIATION WITH THE SUCCESSFUL MONTREAL PROTOCOL Arctic ozone depletion in spring 2011 led to measured short-term increases (80-160%) in UV-B in Alaska, Canada, Greenland & Scandinavia, and modelled increases (15-25%) at lower Large short-term increases in UV-B have been measured at some locations in response to episodic decreases of ozone at high latitudes, including the Northern hemisphere. latitudes. With few exceptions, changes in UV-B since the 1990s are small, and due less to the effects of ozone depletion than to other factors (cloud; snow and ice cover).
CHANGES IN UV-B RADIATION WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL Without the Montreal Protocol, by the end of 21st century UV levels around the globe would have exceeded, often substantially, levels Now a body of published research modelling the changes in UV radiation that would have occurred over the 21st century WITHOUT successful control of ODS. previously experienced even in the most extreme environments. WITH MONTREAL PROTOCOL WITHOUT MONTREAL PROTOCOL Values over 11 are considered extreme Maximum UVI without ozone depletion is approx. 25 The calculated clear-sky UV index for November 2065 in the expected future (with the Montreal Protocol) compared with that in the world avoided (with no Montreal Protocol). From Newman and McKenzie, 2011
Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation INCREASED ULTRAVIOLET- B (UV-B) RADIATION TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY HUMAN HEALTH CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT
Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation UVexposure Damaging effects of too little UV Damaging effects of too much UV RESEARCH OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS HAS CLARIFIED THAT DAMAGE TO HUMAN HEALTH CAN RESULT FROM EITHER TOO MUCH OR TOO LITTLE UV RADIATION WITH THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (NOW) THE BALANCE BETWEEN THESE CONTRASTING EFFECTS OF UV IS LARGELY DETERMINED BY PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES AND BEHAVIOUR
Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation With the Montreal protocol, changing behaviour with regard to sun exposure by many fair-skinned populations has probably had a more significant effect on human health than increasing UV-B irradiance due to ozone depletion. Strategies to avoid over-exposure to solar UV radiation remain important for public health, but should aim to balance the harmful and beneficial effects of sun exposure. WITH THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (NOW)
Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation UVexposure Damaging Damaging effects of too little UV Damaging effects of too much UV effects of too much UV OZONE DEPLETION PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES AND BEHAVIOUR WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (WORLD AVOIDED) LARGE INCREASES IN UV, SO THAT THE DAMAGING EFFECTS OF TOO MUCH UV BECOME DOMINANT.
Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation Damaging effects of too much UV SHORT TERM LONG-TERM Increased skin-cancers Basal cell & squamous cell carcinomas Malignant melanoma SKIN Sunburn Inflammation (photo- conjunctivitis) EYES Increased cataract and other eye diseases IMMUNE SYSTEM: immune suppression leading to increased susceptibility to infection, reduced response to vaccinations
Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation Percentage increase in annual UV dose in 2030 in the world avoided (with no Montreal Protocol), compared with the present day. From van Dijk et al., 2013 WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (WORLD AVOIDED)
Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation Models can, necessarily, only estimate skin cancers world avoided , and further refinement is required but the ball- park , estimate of two million fewer cases of skin cancer a year by 2030 indicates the scale of the health benefits of the Montreal Protocol. Total number of new cases of skin cancer per million people per year avoided by the Montreal Protocol in the year 2030. From van Dijk et al., 2013 WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (WORLD AVOIDED)
Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems RELATED CHANGES IN EFFECTS DUE TO ODS OZONE-DEPELTION- INCREASED ULTRAVIOLET- B (UV-B) RADIATION REPLACEMENTS CLIMATE TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY HUMAN HEALTH CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENTs
Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems No new negative environmental effects of the substitutes for the ozone depleting substances or their HFCs degrade to produce tri- fluoroacetic acid (TFA) which accumulates in water breakdown-products have been identified No new evidence that predicted TFA accumulation will pose a significant threat to aquatic ecosystems. EFFECTS DUE TO ODS bodies. REPLACEMENTS TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY HUMAN HEALTH CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENTs
Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems Improved understanding of: role of solar UV in air quality (e.g. aerosols, ground-level ozone) and water chemistry (e.g. heavy metals), and that such changes may affect ecosystems. INCREASED ULTRAVIOLET- INCREASED ULTRAVIOLET-B (UV-B) RADIATION B (UV-B) RADIATION that solar UV radiation has significant direct effects on many organisms and environmental processes, and of the mechanistic basis for such responses. TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY HUMAN HEALTH CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENTs
Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems New understanding highlights the vulnerability of organisms and environmental processes (including food production) to very large increases in UV caused by uncontrolled stratospheric ozone depletion. However, there have been no world-avoided models for these effects, so their magnitude in a world where the Montreal Protocol had not controlled ozone-depleting substances has not been quantified. WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (WORLD AVOIDED)
Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems With a few exceptions, changes in UV-B irradiances due to factors such as cloud, snow and ice cover, and UV penetration in to water bodies have a more significant effect on ecosystems than UV changes due to ozone depletion over the last three decades. Southern hemisphere ecosystems have responded to severe ozone depletion there, partly due to increased UV radiation, partly due to climate- mediated effects. WITH THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (NOW)
Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems ANTARCTIC STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION RELATED CHANGES IN OZONE-DEPELTION- CHANGES IN CLIMATE DUE TO OZONE- DEPLETION ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS CLIMATE REGIONAL CLIMATE TEMPERATURE WIND RAINFALL TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY HUMAN HEALTH CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT
Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems Widespread climate-mediated ecological changes in the S hemisphere correlated with the Antarctic ozone holes since the 1980s. Decreased tree growth due to drought. Slower moss growth & changes in lake biodiversity https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSAWmIUowhfCkZTzzXmbMHFlkEZRurLI7r7gMkYvN1022Aayh96 Rapid changes in phyto-plankton communities Increased tree growth in southern Alps.
EEAP REPORT OVERVIEW The success of Montreal Protocol in preventing large, wide-scale increases in UV radiation has now been quantified through modelling the world avoided . Because large increases in UV have been prevented, major effects of ozone depletion on human health have been avoided. The scale of damage to health in the world avoided is beginning to be quantified. Major effects of ozone depletion on most ecosystems have also been prevented, but the effects of Antarctic depletion on regional climates is having measurable impacts in the S hemisphere, even outside Antarctica. Co-chairs: Prof Janet Bornman (Aus), Prof Min Shao (China), Prof Nigel Paul (UK)
