The Art and Science of Demand and Supply Chain Planning: Navigating Today's Global Economy

 
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By
Paul A. Myerson
 
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Allowing the people, process and technology of demand
and supply planning to all work together in unison for a
lean, agile supply chain.
 
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O
rganizations exist in an environment today that lacks
stability and predictability, requiring flexibility from the
processes, technology, and people in the supply chain
to navigate these rough waters.
 
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Improving Timing and Accuracy
Flattening Volatility
Enabling Accurate Forecasts
 
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Supply-side accuracy and timeliness
People, Process, Technology
 
 
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Pre-WWII
Post-WWII
1960-1980
1980-1999
21
st
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Form Utility
Time Utility
Place Utility
Possession Utility
Information Utility
Service Utility
 
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Mission and Vision Statements
Strategy Defined
Determining your Corporate and Business
Strategy
Strategic Choices
 
 
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Supply Chain Surplus = Customer Value - Supply Chain Cost.
 
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1. Start with customers' current and future needs
2. Assess current supply chain capabilities relative to best in class
3. Evaluate supply chain "game changers"
4. Analyze the competition
5. Survey technology
6. Deal with supply chain risk
 
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7. Develop new supply chain capability requirements and create a plan to
get there
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
8. Evaluate current supply chain organizational structure, people, and
metrics
9. Develop a business case and get buy-in
 
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Understanding the customer and supply chain uncertainty
 
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Understanding the supply chain
 
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Achieving strategic fit
 
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1.
F
ocus on manufacturing costs as a measure of efficiency
2.
B
roader performance of distribution and logistics costs
3.
T
he internet and ERP systems allow organizations to take an even
broader view of both their extended supply chains and more easily gather,
measure and analyze cost and service information.
4.
Data Analytics
 
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Descriptive
Diagnostic
Predictive
Prescriptive
 
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The Balanced Scorecard
The Supply Chain Council’s SCOR Model
Activity-based costing (ABC)
Economic value analysis (EVA)
 
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Time
Quality
Cost
 
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1.
Leading indicators
2.
Lagging indicators
3.
Diagnostic
 
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Defined: once you have established what KPI’s to measure, you
need to determine how to gauge yourself against them.
Benchmarking Process:
1.
Determine what to benchmark
2.
Form a benchmark team
3.
Identify benchmarking partners
4.
Collect and analyze benchmarking information
 
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Lead time
Product variety
Product availability
Customer experience
Time to market
Order visibility
Return-ability
 
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Manufacturer Storage with Direct Shipping (Drop Shipping)
 
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Manufacturer Storage with Direct Shipping and In-Transit Merge
 
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Distributor Storage with Carrier Delivery
 
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Distributor Storage with Last-Mile Delivery
 
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Manufacturer or Distributor Storage with Customer Pickup
 
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Cost impacts
Service impacts
 
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The key enablers to be successful with an 
O
mni 
C
hannel strategy is to have:
Omni Channel embedded in the overall company strategy.
A responsive, combined omni and traditional supply chain infrastructure.
IT systems and capabilities that enable seamless visibility and fulfillment to
end consumers.
 
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The four trends to consider are:
1.
Diversification of sales channels
2.
Densification of products
3.
Decentralization of production
4.
Digitalization of products
 
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In 
M
ulti 
C
hannel retail and fulfillment, stores have their own
stock and sell directly to customers, while the website has its
own separate stock.
In an Omni 
C
hannel environment, however, consumers are
likely to have multiple touchpoints with a retailer and expect
their interactions between each channel to be seamless
 
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Steps in a New Facility Location Decision
 
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Country
 
Regional
 
Local
 
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C
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6
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It is b
eneficial for companies to operate
a supply chain that is both Lean 
and
Agile
This is known as having a “hybrid”
supply chain strategy.
 
 
 
History of Lean
 
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Culture is the beliefs and behaviors that determine how
a company's employees and management interact and
handle outside business transactions
Teamwork is essential for competing in today's global
arena, where individual perfection is not as desirable as
a high level of collective performance.
Kaizen (i.e. continuous improvement) and teams.
 
 
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Standardization refers to best work practices, that is, as the work is
actually, routinely (and best) performed in real life.
The purpose of standardization is to make operations repeatable and
reliable, ensuring consistently high productivity, and reduced variability of
output.
 
5
S
-
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5S is a philosophy that focuses on effective workplace organization and standardized work
procedures.
 
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s
 
Visual workplace
Facility layout
Batch Size Reduction and Quick Changeover
Quality at the Source
Point of Use Storage
Total Productive Maintenance (TPM)
Pull/Kanban and Work Cells
Six Sigma (and Lean)
 
 
 
 
 
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While lean can improve quality, productivity, reduce waste and cost, an
agile and responsive supply chain is also important in an omni channel
environment as the customer controls not just what to buy, but also the
when, where, and how.
T
he key to achieving an agile supply chain in an omni channel world is
orchestration. Having the technology and systems in place to move
products through the supply chain seamlessly while still being in
control at the origin.
The retail supply chain management must focus on the need to
optimize supply chain processes to maximize both speed and
efficiency.
 
L
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s
 
The g
oals of JIT are (or should be) aligned with the goals of supply chain
planning.
VSM the processes in supply chain planning and how they are all
connected will lead to a better understanding of the value of each step and
how to streamline and eliminate non-value-added activities in a “future
state” map along with an implementation plan.
Use kaizen to find ways to do things more efficiently, accurately, and
effectively minimizes waste and adds value to supply chain planning
processes.
Asking questions leads to an understanding of how things work and to
finding potential fixes to problems. This should be a core principle in
supply chain planning.
 
 
L
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S
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Collaborate and use process discipline
Focus on total cost of fulfillment
Make customer usage visible to all members of the supply chain
Reduce lead time
Create a level flow/level load
Use pull systems, like kanban’s
Increase velocity, throughput, and reduce variation
Consider advancements in technology to improve the supply
chain
 
A
 
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1)
Develop systems thinking
2)
Understand customer value
3)
Value stream mapping
4)
Benchmark best practices
5)
Design to manage demand volatility
6)
Create flow
7)
Performance metrics
 
C
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A
P
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E
R
 
7
:
 
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The seven steps or processes within this best practice strategic sourcing process are:
Step 1: Profile the category
Step 2: Select the sourcing strategy
Step 3: Generate the supplier portfolio
 
Category Positioning Matrix (Source: 2001 A.T. Kearney)
 
Sourcing Strategies (Source: 2001 A.T. Kearney)
 
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(
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)
 
Step 4: Select the implementation path
Step 5: Negotiate and select suppliers
Step 6: Integrate suppliers
Step 7: Monitor the supply market and supplier performance
 
L
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o
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o
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y
 
Lean Sourcing Maturity Model (Source: Aptium Global, 2005)
 
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K
e
y
 
M
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t
r
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c
s
 
Some of the most important key performance indicators (KPI’s) to keep an
eye on are:
Procurement cycle time
Quality
Procurement ROI
Spend under management
Implemented cost savings
Contract compliance
Delivery
 
C
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t
 
Some general guiding lean procurement core principles:
 
1.
Migrate from “push” to “pull”
2.
Develop a flexible and responsive supply chain
3.
Eliminate all waste in the procurement cycle
 
P
r
o
c
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m
e
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t
 
T
e
c
h
n
o
l
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g
y
 
Types of standalone procurement software systems:
 
Spend analysis
Supplier discovery
Supplier information management
eSourcing
Contract management
eProcurement
e-Invoicing (also known as “ePayment”)
Supplier management
Combination solutions
Complete suites
 
C
H
A
P
T
E
R
 
8
 
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n
 
Supply chain integration refers to the degree to which the firm can strategically
collaborate with their supply chain partners and collaboratively manage the intra- and
inter-organization processes to achieve the effective and efficient flows of product and
services, information, money and decisions.
I
ntegration is the alignment and linking of business processes and includes various
communication channels and connections within a supply network.
Collaboration, on the other hand, is a relationship between supply chain partners that is
developed over time
 
I
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t
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Kanban
Dynamic replenishment
Invoicing processes
Outsourced manufacturer collaboration
 
C
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o
m
e
r
 
C
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a
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a
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i
o
n
 
Increased connectivity and collaboration between companies and their
trading partners creates many benefits for both suppliers and your
customers such as:
Higher inventory turns.
Lower fulfillment (transportation and warehousing) costs.
Lower out-of-stock levels and improved customer service.
Shorter lead times.
Early identification of changes to demand and improved market
intelligence.
Visibility into customer demand and supplier performance.
Earlier and faster decision making.
 
S
u
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:
A
 
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r
 
L
o
o
k
 
Quick Response (QR)
Efficient Consumer Response (ECR)
 
 
 
Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR)
 
S
e
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t
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n
 
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d
 
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g
 
C
H
A
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T
E
R
 
9
 
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:
 
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s
 
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d
 
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e
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s
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a
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d
 
S
h
a
p
i
n
g
 
Demand sensing 
is a forecasting method that leverages new
mathematical techniques and near real-time information to create an
accurate forecast of demand, based on the current realities of the
supply chain.
Demand shaping 
is an operational supply chain management strategy
where a company uses tactics such as price incentives, cost
modifications and product substitutions to entice customers to
purchase specific items.
 
A
r
t
i
f
i
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i
a
l
 
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n
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F
o
r
e
c
a
s
t
i
n
g
 
AI is a computer-based analytical process that exhibits behavior
and actions that are considered “intelligent” by human
observers.
AI a
ttempts to mimic the human thought process including
reasoning and optimization.
An AI-based forecasting solution uses an assortment of
machine learning algorithms to optimize forecasts.
The system then selects a model that's uniquely suited for the
particular business metric that you're forecasting.
 
 
F
o
r
e
c
a
s
t
i
n
g
 
R
e
a
l
i
t
i
e
s
 
All forecasts are wrong
The more “granular” the forecast, the less accurate it is
It’s easier to forecast next month more accurately than next year – If we
know what we sold yesterday, then we typically have a better idea of what
we’ll sell today; whereas 12 months from now a lot of things can happen
that can affect sales.
You will get a more accurate forecast using demand history rather than
sales history
Forecasting really is a blend of “art and science”
 
T
y
p
e
s
 
o
f
 
F
o
r
e
c
a
s
t
s
 
Marketing
Sales
Supply chain
Finance and accounting
 
F
o
r
e
c
a
s
t
i
n
g
 
P
r
o
c
e
s
s
 
S
t
e
p
s
 
1)
Determine the use of the forecast
2)
Select the items to be forecasted
3)
Determine the time horizon of the forecast
4)
Select the forecasting model(s) and methods
5)
Gather the data needed to make the forecast
6)
Generate forecasts
7)
Validate and implement the results
 
Q
u
a
l
i
t
a
t
i
v
e
 
M
o
d
e
l
s
 
f
o
r
 
F
o
r
e
c
a
s
t
i
n
g
 
Knowledge and Intuition of the Products
Market Surveys
Jury of Executive Opinion
Delphi Method
 
Q
u
a
n
t
i
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a
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i
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e
 
M
e
t
h
o
d
s
 
o
f
 
F
o
r
e
c
a
s
t
i
n
g
 
Time Series Models
Associative Models (linear and multiple regression)
Other Statistical Models (Winters, Holt-Jenkins, Focus
Forecasting, etc.)
 
A
 
B
l
e
n
d
e
d
 
A
p
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o
a
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:
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c
a
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t
i
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g
 
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r
o
d
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e
 
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y
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s
 
a
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d
 
F
o
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g
 
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i
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e
 
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r
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s
 
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p
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e
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t
s
 
T
i
m
e
 
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e
r
i
e
s
 
M
o
d
e
l
s
 
Naive approach
Moving average
Weighted moving average
Exponential smoothing
 
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a
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A
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o
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e
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s
s
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)
 
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e
a
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y
 
I
n
d
e
x
 
F
o
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c
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M
e
t
r
i
c
s
 
You can’t control and improve a process if you don’t measure it,
so it is very important to both establish targets and to then track
and measure forecast accuracy.  
Some of the most common
metrics include:
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)
Mean Squared Error (MSE)
Tracking Signal
 
C
H
A
P
T
E
R
 
1
0
 
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f
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P
r
a
c
t
i
c
e
s
 
“Best in Class” forecasting organizations:
Tend to take forecasting more seriously as they hold managers
accountable for agreed upon forecasts, incentivize managers for forecast
accuracy and use the forecast for ongoing performance management.
Look to enhance quality beyond the basics by incorporating scenario
planning and use external market reports and data more often.
Work harder at it by updating and reviewing forecasts more often and
more formally and tend to use packaged forecasting software systems
more often rather than just spreadsheets.
 
D
e
m
a
n
d
 
F
o
r
e
c
a
s
t
i
n
g
 
S
y
s
t
e
m
s
 
Demand forecasting systems attempt to accomplish the
following:
Historical analysis
Data separation
Demand shaping
“What-if” analysis
Supply chain communication
 
H
o
w
 
T
e
c
h
n
o
l
o
g
y
 
H
e
l
p
s
 
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e
m
a
n
d
F
o
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c
a
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t
i
n
g
 
P
r
o
c
e
s
s
 
Listening to Social Media
Improve Demand Forecasting with the Internet of
Things (IoT)
Streamline and Improve Forecasting Processes with
Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML)
 
T
y
p
i
c
a
l
 
A
I
-
b
a
s
e
d
 
F
o
r
e
c
a
s
t
i
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g
 
S
y
s
t
e
m
 
A typical process that an AI-based forecasting system uses usually entails
the following steps:
1.
Connect the data
2.
Select forecast metrics
3.
Perform automatic data preparation
4.
Train the machine learning model
5.
Create a customized model
6.
Review the custom model
7.
Generate a forecast
8.
Consume the forecast insights
 
L
e
a
n
 
F
o
r
e
c
a
s
t
i
n
g
 
P
r
o
c
e
s
s
 
1.
Specify value that channel partners get from forecasting.
2.
Identify the value stream and focus on eliminating waste
such as excess data collection and reporting, long queue
times for information, over analysis of data, too many or
the wrong people involved in the forecasting process,
and high system costs.
3.
Create flow especially by reducing the time between
receiving information and making decisions by focusing
on reducing the time between creating a baseline
forecast, making adjustments and final approval.
4.
Facilitate pull by creating a procedure to initiate when a
forecast should be made. Strive for perfection to create
the most meaningful forecasts from the customer
perspective.
 
Typical Forecasting Process (Goods or Service Industry)
 
S
e
c
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i
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n
 
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I
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S
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p
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C
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T
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I
n
v
e
n
t
o
r
y
 
1.
Raw materials and components
2.
Work in process (WIP)
3.
Finished goods
4.
Maintenance, repair and operations (MRO)
 
C
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n
v
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y
 
 
C
a
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r
y
i
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g
 
C
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t
s
 
Capital or opportunity cost (depending on current interest rates can
range from 5-25%)
Physical space occupied by the inventory (3-10%)
Handling of inventory (4-10%)
Pilferage, scrap, deterioration and obsolescence (2-5%)
 
O
r
d
e
r
 
a
n
d
 
S
e
t
u
p
 
C
o
s
t
s
 
Order costs - 
When placing an order to purchase
additional inventory, there are both fixed and variable
costs involved.
Setup costs - 
If you are a manufacturer versus a
wholesaler or retailer, then there are costs associated
with changing production over known as “setup” which
includes labor and parts as well as downtime.
 
 
T
o
t
a
l
 
C
o
s
t
s
 
M
i
n
i
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a
n
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H
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t
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)
 
Q
 
=
 
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p
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)
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i
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c
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t
 
p
e
r
 
u
n
i
t
 
p
e
r
 
y
e
a
r
 
EOQ
 (Economic Order Quantity)
 
 
R
e
o
r
d
e
r
 
P
o
i
n
t
 
(
R
O
P
)
 
M
o
d
e
l
s
 
(
i
.
e
.
 
W
h
e
n
 
t
o
M
a
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e
 
o
r
 
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u
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)
 
 
F
i
x
e
d
 
Q
u
a
n
t
i
t
y
 
(
Q
)
M
o
d
e
l
 
Fixed Quantity (Q) ROP Model
 
S
a
f
e
t
y
 
S
t
o
c
k
 
To compensate for variability in forecast accuracy and/or lead time.
Besides probabilistic safety stock models, some in industry prefer to use “rules
of thumb”
In general, the safety stock quantity that is arrived at is “additive” in nature and
thus the ROP (Q) calculation becomes: d x L + ss.
 
ROP with Probabilistic Safety Stock Model
 
F
i
x
e
d
 
P
e
r
i
o
d
 
(
P
)
 
M
o
d
e
l
 
The use of “periods of supply” targets can be advantageous when you tend to
have seasonality with your products, which is one of the main features of fixed
period or “P” models
I
nventory is “continuously” monitored
 and 
individual SKU inventory targets
(usually in terms of periods of supply) are the trigger point for replenishment.
 
Fixed Period (P) ROP Model
 
A
B
C
 
M
e
t
h
o
d
 
o
f
 
I
n
v
e
n
t
o
r
y
 
P
l
a
n
n
i
n
g
a
n
d
 
C
o
n
t
r
o
l
 
Pareto Principle or 80/20 Rule
 
I
n
v
e
n
t
o
r
y
 
C
o
n
t
r
o
l
 
a
n
d
 
A
c
c
u
r
a
c
y
 
-
C
y
c
l
e
 
C
o
u
n
t
i
n
g
 
Cycle counts primarily use ABC codes to determine when items should be counted and what the
target level of accuracy should be (also referred to as the “Ranking method” of cycle counting).
As there are fewer, higher volume/profit “A” items, they should be “cycled” through more often with
extremely high accuracy targets.
 
Cycle Count Example
 
C
H
A
P
T
E
R
 
1
2
 
S
a
l
e
s
 
a
n
d
 
O
p
e
r
a
t
i
o
n
s
 
(
A
g
g
r
e
g
a
t
e
)
P
l
a
n
n
i
n
g
 
P
l
a
n
n
i
n
g
 
H
o
r
i
z
o
n
s
 
When we think of planning the capacity for a goods or service
business, we typically think in terms of three time horizons:
Long range
 (1-3+ years)
Medium range
 (roughly 2 to 12 months; known as “aggregate
planning”)
Short range
 (up to 2-3 months)
 
T
h
e
 
P
r
o
c
e
s
s
 
D
e
c
i
s
i
o
n
 
(
G
o
o
d
s
 
a
n
d
S
e
r
v
i
c
e
s
)
 
Product-Process Matrix
 
P
l
a
n
n
i
n
g
 
a
n
d
 
S
c
h
e
d
u
l
i
n
g
 
P
r
o
c
e
s
s
O
v
e
r
v
i
e
w
 
Typical Planning and Scheduling Process
 
A
g
g
r
e
g
a
t
e
 
P
l
a
n
n
i
n
g
 
Aggregate planning, also referred to as sales and operations
planning (S&OP), is operational activity that generates an
aggregate plan (i.e. for product or service families or classes)
for the production process for a period of 2 to 18 months.
Goal is to
 ensure that supply meets demand over that period,
while keeping the total cost of operations of the organization to
a minimum.
 
S
a
l
e
s
 
a
n
d
 
O
p
e
r
a
t
i
o
n
s
 
P
l
a
n
n
i
n
g
(
S
&
O
P
)
 
P
r
o
c
e
s
s
 
A
g
g
r
e
g
a
t
e
 
P
l
a
n
 
Aggregate Plan Example
 
T
r
e
n
d
s
 
i
n
 
S
&
O
P
 
i
n
 
T
o
d
a
y
s
 
V
o
l
a
t
i
l
e
E
c
o
n
o
m
y
 
In today’s volatile global environment, to achieve success, there is a need to have a more
“outside-in” approach using information from your extended supply chain to maximize
customer value and overall supply chain surplus.
Movement or evolution towards what has been called “integrated business planning” (IBP)
or “advanced S&OP” for some leading organizations which migrates from fundamental
demand and supply balancing (“inside out”) to a broader, more integrated strategic
deployment and management process (“outside in”).
Identify risks and opportunities that might impact the demand or supply plan .
Develop a culture of identifying risks and opportunities and challenge the plan.
Use risks and opportunities to drive decision making by moving them through the S&OP
process using an agreed-on way of handing over information to the following step.
The final executive S&OP step requires teams to think about sharing not only the risk or
opportunity but also the impact, the possible actions and the expected results.
 
C
o
n
t
r
o
l
 
T
o
w
e
r
 
A leading-edge way to manage your short- to mid-term global
supply chain in real time (or close to it), is through a control
tower that utilizes technology, organization, and processes that
capture product movement visibility from the supplier all the way
to the customer.
Helps to support a Lean and Agile Supply Chain.
 
D
e
m
a
n
d
 
a
n
d
 
S
u
p
p
l
y
 
O
p
t
i
o
n
s
 
An organization has options to adjust both demand and supply capacity.
D
e
m
a
n
d
 
o
p
t
i
o
n
s
:
Influence demand
Backorders
New or counter seasonal demand
S
u
p
p
l
y
 
O
p
t
i
o
n
s
:
Hire and lay off employees
Overtime/idle time
Part time or temporary workers
Sub-contracting (or contract manufacturing)
Vary inventory levels
 
Demand
 
Supply
 
A
g
g
r
e
g
a
t
e
 
P
l
a
n
n
i
n
g
 
S
t
r
a
t
e
g
i
e
s
 
P
r
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
,
 
S
a
l
e
s
 
a
n
d
 
I
n
v
e
n
t
o
r
y
(
P
S
I
)
 
M
e
t
h
o
d
 
o
f
 
P
l
a
n
n
i
n
g
 
PSI Planning Method Example
 
M
a
s
t
e
r
 
P
r
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
 
S
c
h
e
d
u
l
e
 
(
M
P
S
)
 
Disaggregation to Master Production Schedule Example
 
P
r
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
 
S
t
r
a
t
e
g
i
e
s
 
Make-to-stock (MTS)
Make-to-order (MTO)
Assemble-to-order (ATO)
Engineer-to-order (ETO)
 
D
i
s
t
r
i
b
u
t
i
o
n
 
R
e
q
u
i
r
e
m
e
n
t
s
 
P
l
a
n
n
i
n
g
(
D
R
P
)
 
C
H
A
P
T
E
R
 
1
3
 
R
e
s
o
u
r
c
e
 
P
l
a
n
n
i
n
g
 
 
D
e
p
e
n
d
e
n
t
D
e
m
a
n
d
 
I
n
v
e
n
t
o
r
y
 
a
n
d
 
P
u
r
c
h
a
s
i
n
g
 
M
a
t
e
r
i
a
l
 
R
e
q
u
i
r
e
m
e
n
t
s
 
P
l
a
n
n
i
n
g
 
(
M
R
P
)
 
Once the MPS has been solidified, it can then be “exploded”
through a bill of materials (BOM) file to determine raw material
and component (i.e. dependent demand) requirements typically
used to generate purchase orders or releases.
The most common tool for this is material requirements
planning (MRP).
 
M
R
P
 
I
n
p
u
t
s
 
a
n
d
 
O
u
t
p
u
t
s
 
The information needed to run an MRP model include the MPS, a Bill of Materials (BOM),
 inventory balances, lead times, lot sizes and scheduled receipts (i.e. purchase orders and
production work orders).
 
M
R
P
 
M
e
c
h
a
n
i
c
s
 
P
u
r
c
h
a
s
i
n
g
 
a
n
d
 
t
h
e
 
P
r
o
c
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
P
r
o
c
e
s
s
 
C
H
A
P
T
E
R
 
1
4
 
R
e
s
o
u
r
c
e
 
P
l
a
n
n
i
n
g
 
 
S
h
o
r
t
 
T
e
r
m
S
c
h
e
d
u
l
i
n
g
 
a
n
d
 
O
m
n
i
 
C
h
a
n
n
e
l
D
e
l
i
v
e
r
y
 
S
h
o
r
t
 
T
e
r
m
 
S
c
h
e
d
u
l
i
n
g
 
Typical Planning and Scheduling Process
 
T
y
p
e
s
 
o
f
 
S
c
h
e
d
u
l
i
n
g
 
Forward scheduling
Backward scheduling
 
S
e
q
u
e
n
c
i
n
g
 
a
n
d
 
P
r
i
o
r
i
t
y
 
R
u
l
e
s
 
Understanding and minimizing flow time.
S
equencing uses both priority rules to determine the order that jobs will be processed in
and the actual job time, which includes both the setup and running of the job, to schedule
efficiently.
Priority rules:
 
First come, first served (FCFS) – Jobs run in the order they are received. Perhaps the fairest,
although not always most efficient way of scheduling.
Earliest due date (EDD) – Work on the jobs due the soonest.
Shortest processing time (SPT) – Shortest jobs run earlier to make sure they are completed on
time. Larger jobs will possibly be late as a result.
Longest processing time (LPT) – Start with the jobs that take the longest to get them done on
time. This may work well for long jobs, but the others will suffer as a result.
Critical ratio 
(CR)
 
C
o
n
t
i
n
u
o
u
s
 
v
s
.
 
D
i
s
c
r
e
t
e
 
I
n
d
u
s
t
r
y
S
c
h
e
d
u
l
i
n
g
 
Discrete Manufacturing
 
Continuous Manufacturing
 
F
i
n
i
t
e
 
C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y
 
S
c
h
e
d
u
l
i
n
g
 
(
F
C
S
)
 
Finite Capacity Scheduling (FCS) System
 
T
y
p
e
s
 
o
f
 
D
i
s
t
r
i
b
u
t
i
o
n
 
N
e
t
w
o
r
k
s
 
-
M
a
n
u
f
a
c
t
u
r
e
r
 
S
t
o
r
a
g
e
 
w
i
t
h
 
D
i
r
e
c
t
S
h
i
p
p
i
n
g
 
M
a
n
u
f
a
c
t
u
r
e
r
 
S
t
o
r
a
g
e
 
w
i
t
h
 
D
i
r
e
c
t
S
h
i
p
p
i
n
g
 
a
n
d
 
I
n
-
T
r
a
n
s
i
t
 
M
e
r
g
e
 
D
i
s
t
r
i
b
u
t
o
r
 
S
t
o
r
a
g
e
 
w
i
t
h
 
C
a
r
r
i
e
r
D
e
l
i
v
e
r
y
 
D
i
s
t
r
i
b
u
t
o
r
 
S
t
o
r
a
g
e
 
w
i
t
h
 
L
a
s
t
-
M
i
l
e
D
e
l
i
v
e
r
y
 
M
a
n
u
f
a
c
t
u
r
e
r
 
o
r
 
D
i
s
t
r
i
b
u
t
o
r
 
S
t
o
r
a
g
e
w
i
t
h
 
C
u
s
t
o
m
e
r
 
P
i
c
k
u
p
 
D
e
l
i
v
e
r
y
 
i
n
 
T
o
d
a
y
s
 
O
m
n
i
 
C
h
a
n
n
e
l
R
e
t
a
i
l
 
W
o
r
l
d
 
Last Mile Delivery Options
 
S
o
m
e
 
I
d
e
a
s
 
t
o
 
R
e
d
u
c
e
 
L
a
s
t
 
M
i
l
e
T
r
a
n
s
p
o
r
t
a
t
i
o
n
 
C
o
s
t
s
 
Offer a range of shipping options
Drop off at access point
Limiting the travel distance
Change the box size
 
S
o
l
v
i
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Hyperlocal delivery services.
Retailers (and manufacturers) drop shipping goods to consumers.
Acquire logistics providers.
Acquisition of e-commerce companies by retailers.
 
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Strategic
Tactical
Routine
Execution
 
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Supply Chain Planning (SCP)
Supply Chain Execution (SCE)
Supply chain Event 
M
anagement
Business Intelligence (BI)/Supply Chain Analytics
Control Towers (Transportation, Supply Chain)
 
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Internet
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Order Management Systems (OMS)
Customer Relationship Management Systems (CRM)
Transportation Management Systems (TMS)
Distribution Requirements Planning (DRP)
Master Production Scheduling (MPS)
Material Requirements Planning (MRP)
Finite Capacity Scheduling (FCS) Systems
 
 
 
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1.
Return on marketing spend
2.
Ever-changing payment solution landscape
3.
Increased supply chain complexity
 
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Drop-shipping
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A generous return policy can drive sales (ex: Zappos and
Warby Parker), but it is also a major cost driver.
Omni channel retailers that can figure out how to combine a
generous policy that drives additional sales, while optimizing the
costs of returns management, will be the leaders of tomorrow.
 
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Dynamically changing supply chain and fulfillment strategies have increased
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barriers and integrates channels with each other to create better visibility
needed for an omni channel experience.
A truly integrated order management system (OMS) is critical in omni
channel retail, since the customer interacts and moves between physical and
digital channels.
 
Benefits of an integrated OMS in an omni channel environment:
Distributed order management
Single view of inventory
Store fulfillment
Customer service
 
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Processing Customer Orders
Delivery from Store or Distribution/Fulfillment Center?
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Impacts on Distribution/Fulfillment Centers and IT
Impact of a Multi-Step Picking Process
 
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C
onsumers now expect an endless assortment of goods that reaches all
the way up to the manufacturer.
Items need to be available anywhere, at any time according to the
customer’s increasing demand for personalization and customization.
Some larger brands such as LG and L’Oreal are creating frictionless
direct-to-consumer fulfilment options.
Some manufacturers are now even being asked to drop ship programs,
which requires the manufacturer to act as a direct-to-consumer company.
Manufacturers must become more flexible and agile in fulfilling orders to
ensure on-time and accurate customer deliveries and must gain visibility
beyond the factory into distribution centers.
 
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The p
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on meeting consumer needs
Some supply chains are perhaps too lean, so when labor, materials and equipment
shortages occur as a result, shortages and price increases tend to occur.
C
ompanies need to "first identify the sources and types of potential risk and estimate their
probability and impact."
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ompanies should look to supply chain risk mitigation strategies that include boosting
capacity, engaging redundant suppliers, increasing responsiveness and flexibility,
aggregating demand, and increasing source capabilities.
A good first place to start in the risk mitigation process is mapping your supply chain.
Companies that invested in mapping their supply networks before the pandemic were
better prepared with clearer visibility into the structure of their supply chains.
 
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2.
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4.
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5.
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upply Chain 
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lanning.
 
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Supply Chain visibility, both downstream and upstream
 
Supply Chain network optimization
 
Identify and mitigate risk
 
Strategic sourcing
 
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Big data and predictive analytics
 
Cloud technology and the Internet of Things (IoT)
 
Next-gen analytics and Artificial 
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Collaborative forecasting
 
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The G
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manufactures, warehouses, distribution centers and retailers through
which raw materials are acquired, transformed and delivered to customers.
US imports have grown from $56 billion in 1970 to over $3 trillion in goods.
In addition to sourcing globally, many companies sell globally and/or
compete with other companies that do.
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parties and are locating parts of their supply chain outside their home
country (known as “offshoring”).
 
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Improvements in transportation
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Improvements of communications
Labor availability and skills
Transnational corporations
 
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Global market forces
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1. Form a cross-functional global supply chain development team.
2. Identify needs and opportunities for supply chain globalization.
3. Determine commodity/service priorities for globalization consideration based on needs and
opportunities.
4. Identify potential markets and suppliers and compare to "as is" markets, suppliers, and supply
chain arrangements, operations, and results.
5. Evaluate/qualify markets and suppliers, identify supplier pool (determine best ones based on
likely total cost of ownership (TCO), and best potential to meet or exceed expectations and
requirements).
6. Determine selection process for suppliers.
7. Select suppliers or confirm current suppliers.
8. Formalize agreements with suppliers.
9. Implement agreements.
10. Monitor, evaluate, review and revise as needed.
 
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Ocean
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Supply Chain volatility and uncertainty have permanently increased.
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configurations.
Risk management involves the end-to-end Supply Chain .
Many existing Supply Chain organizations are not truly integrated and
empowered.
 
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The c
haracteristics of the Supply Chain structure you have may determine the drivers of
your Supply 
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e c
haracteristics may include:
Complexity of the Supply 
C
hain (ex: global versus domestic sourcing).
Density of the Supply Chain (i.e. using these high density regions leads to higher
vulnerability of supply chains).
Single or sole sourcing versus multiple vendors for the same item.
Lean and JIT production philosophies require precise timing.
Centralization of warehouse/manufacturing locations results in lengthy lead times due to
distance issues.
Dependency on major suppliers / customers (i.e. the “all your eggs in one basket”
syndrome).
Dependency on IT-infrastructure, electricity etc.
 
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Supplier failure to deliver
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Logistics
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Political
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Natural catastrophes
Theft, vandalism, and terrorism
 
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Team Building
Management's Role
Keeping It Going (i.e. Continuous Improvement)
 
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1.
Assess your organization’s current state
2.
Build your future-state vision
3.
Map your pragmatic technology roadmap
4.
Adopt PPT framework
 
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Resiliency (
agility, diversification and scenario planning)
Visibility
Capacity and cost vs. timeliness
Improved forecast accuracy
Ongoing AI and cloud adoption
 
 
 
 
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Explore the intricacies of demand and supply chain planning in the modern global economy through the insightful content provided in this book. From achieving supply and demand balance to adapting to uncertainties like navigating white water rapids, the text delves into strategies for improving accuracy, timing, and flexibility in supply chains. Understand the historical perspective of supply chains and learn how to develop a sustainable competitive advantage through effective supply chain strategies.


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  1. The Art and Science of Demand and Supply Chain Planning in Today's Complex, Uncertain Global Economy By Paul A. Myerson

  2. SECTION I Introduction to Demand and Supply Chain Planning in Today s Complex and Increasingly Uncertain Global Economy

  3. CHAPTER 1: Introduction to Demand and Supply chain Planning in today s complex and increasingly uncertain Global Economy

  4. Supply and Demand Balance and Harmonization Allowing the people, process and technology of demand and supply planning to all work together in unison for a lean, agile supply chain.

  5. White Water Rapids Organizations exist in an environment today that lacks stability and predictability, requiring flexibility from the processes, technology, and people in the supply chain to navigate these rough waters.

  6. Where to Look for Improvement: On the Demand Side Improving Timing and Accuracy Flattening Volatility Enabling Accurate Forecasts

  7. Where to Look for Improvement: On the Supply Side Supply-side accuracy and timeliness People, Process, Technology

  8. CHAPTER 2: Understanding the Importance of Supply Chain to an Organization and Developing a Strategy for a Sustained Competitive Advantage

  9. Supply Chain: Historical Perspective Pre-WWII Post-WWII 1960-1980 1980-1999 21st Century

  10. Value as a Utility Form Utility Time Utility Place Utility Possession Utility Information Utility Service Utility

  11. Corporate, Business and Supply Chain Strategy Mission and Vision Statements Strategy Defined Determining your Corporate and Business Strategy Strategic Choices

  12. Supply Chain Objective and Strategic Importance Supply Chain Surplus = Customer Value - Supply Chain Cost.

  13. Supply Chain Strategy Transformation Methodology 1. Start with customers' current and future needs 2. Assess current supply chain capabilities relative to best in class 3. Evaluate supply chain "game changers" 4. Analyze the competition 5. Survey technology 6. Deal with supply chain risk

  14. Supply Chain Strategy Transformation Methodology (cont d) 7. Develop new supply chain capability requirements and create a plan to get there 8. Evaluate current supply chain organizational structure, people, and metrics 9. Develop a business case and get buy-in

  15. Business Model Canvas

  16. Supply Chain Model Canvas

  17. Supply Chain Strategy Implementation Methodology

  18. Supply Chain Strategy from a People, Process and Technology Standpoint

  19. Chapter 3: Supply Chain Performance: Achieving Strategic Fit and Scope

  20. Supply Chain Strategy Elements and Drivers

  21. Supply Chain Drivers

  22. Supply Chain Drivers and their Impact on its Capabilities

  23. Achieving Strategic Fit Step 1 Understanding the customer and supply chain uncertainty

  24. Achieving Strategic Fit Step 2 Understanding the supply chain

  25. Achieving Strategic Fit Step 3 Achieving strategic fit

  26. CHAPTER 4 Supply Chain Metrics and Measurements

  27. Evolution of Metrics 1. Focus on manufacturing costs as a measure of efficiency 2. Broader performance of distribution and logistics costs 3. The internet and ERP systems allow organizations to take an even broader view of both their extended supply chains and more easily gather, measure and analyze cost and service information. 4. Data Analytics

  28. Data Analytics Descriptive Diagnostic Predictive Prescriptive

  29. Measurement Methods The Balanced Scorecard The Supply Chain Council s SCOR Model Activity-based costing (ABC) Economic value analysis (EVA)

  30. Measurement Categories Time Quality Cost

  31. Balanced Scorecard Approach

  32. Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) Model

  33. Supply Chain Dashboard and KPIs

  34. Indicators 1.Leading indicators 2.Lagging indicators 3.Diagnostic

  35. Benchmarking Defined: once you have established what KPI s to measure, you need to determine how to gauge yourself against them. Benchmarking Process: 1. Determine what to benchmark 2. Form a benchmark team 3. Identify benchmarking partners 4. Collect and analyze benchmarking information

  36. Chapter 5: Supply Chain Network Design

  37. Supply Chain Network Design Influencers Lead time Product variety Product availability Customer experience Time to market Order visibility Return-ability

  38. Types of Tradeoffs in the Location Decision

  39. Types of Distribution Networks Manufacturer Storage with Direct Shipping (Drop Shipping)

  40. Types of Distribution Networks Manufacturer Storage with Direct Shipping and In-Transit Merge

  41. Types of Distribution Networks Distributor Storage with Carrier Delivery

  42. Types of Distribution Networks Distributor Storage with Last-Mile Delivery

  43. Types of Distribution Networks Manufacturer or Distributor Storage with Customer Pickup

  44. Impact of e-business on the Distribution Network Cost impacts Service impacts

  45. Supply Chains Must Adapt to Omni Channel Retail: What Needs to be Done? The key enablers to be successful with an Omni Channel strategy is to have: Omni Channel embedded in the overall company strategy. A responsive, combined omni and traditional supply chain infrastructure. IT systems and capabilities that enable seamless visibility and fulfillment to end consumers.

  46. Distribution Disruption: Ready or Not, Here It Comes The four trends to consider are: 1.Diversification of sales channels 2.Densification of products 3.Decentralization of production 4.Digitalization of products

  47. Store Delivery Keeps Retailers in the Game In Multi Channel retail and fulfillment, stores have their own stock and sell directly to customers, while the website has its own separate stock. In an Omni Channel environment, however, consumers are likely to have multiple touchpoints with a retailer and expect their interactions between each channel to be seamless

  48. Strategic Location Decisions Steps in a New Facility Location Decision

  49. Location Decision Hierarchy Local Country Regional

  50. Location Techniques: Location Cost- Volume Analysis

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