Perception of Security in Arab Countries: Analysis and Comparison

This research study delves into the perception of security in Arab countries, focusing on personal, community, and national dimensions. The study aims to understand the factors influencing security perceptions through indexes and surveys conducted in Spain and the Arab world. By comparing data from the World Values Survey and the Arab Trans Project, the study evaluates various aspects like personal safety, community security, and national concerns related to war and terrorism.

• Security Analysis
• Arab Countries
• Perception Study
• World Values Survey
• Comparative Research

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1. 24thWorld Congress of Political Science July 23-28, 2016 | Pozna , Poland THE PERCEPTION OF SECURITY IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES Juan D ez-Nicol s Universidad Europea de Madrid & ASEP Ana Mar a L pez-Narbona Universidad de M laga

2. MOTIVATION Security is an important concern for people in contemporary societies.

3. OBJECTIVE To understand the perception of security in the Arab countries

4. WHATS? What are we talking about, when we talk of Arab countries? What is Security ? What is Perception ?

5. WHY? Why do we want to understand the perception of security in theArab countries? Problems breakdown (1994 GHDR). of security, risk of (national) Early warning signals of risk

6. HOW? How are we going to understand the perception of security in the Arab Countries? Index(es) to measure the perception of security in the Arab Countries.

7. MEASURING PERCEPTION OF SECURITY Dimensions of Security: Personal, Community, National Construction of Indexes Validation of Indexes -- National Survey Spain 2007 -- Madrid Survey 2008 -- WVS 2010-2014 --Arab Trans 2014 Main Components Analysis

8. COMPARISON OF RESULTS WVS & ARAB TRANS Items to Construct the Indexes World Values 2010-2014 Personal Security Index (PSI): Preferred not to go out at night; Didn't carry much money; Carried a knife, gun or other weapon. Community Security Index (CSI): Drug sale in the streets; Robberies; Alcohol consumption in the streets. National Security Index (NSI): Worry about international war; Worry about terrorist attack; Worry about civil war. Total Security Index (TSI): Sum of Indexes of Personal (PSI), Community (CSI) and National (NSI) Security Arab Trans Project 2014 Personal Security Index (PSI): Being harassed or threatened on the street; Having things stolen from your house; Being robbed on the street. Community Security Index (CSI): Area of residence: Repondent feels safe during the day; Respondent feels safe during the night; Neighbors help you if you need it. National Security Index (NSI): Worry about international war; Worry about terrorist attack; Worry about civil war. Total Security Index (TSI): Sum of Indexes of Personal (PSI), Community (CSI) and National (NSI) Security

9. ARITHMETIC MEANS OF SECURITY WVS 2919-14 PSI ARAB TRANS 2014 PSI JORDAN IRAQ MOROCCO LIBYA EGYPT TUNISIA 2,66 2,25 2,05 1,81 1,8 1,39 JORDAN IRAQ LIBYA EGPTO MOROCO TUNISIA 3,06 2,81 2,6 2,58 2,35 2,29 CSI CSI IRAQ JORDAN LIBYA TUNISIA MOROCCO EGYPT 3,43 3,3 3,25 3,2 2,98 2,61 JORDAN EGPTO IRAQ LIBYA TUNISIA MOROCO 3,59 3,38 3,06 3,05 3,01 2,92 NSI NSI JORDAN MOROCCO IRAQ EGYPT LIBYA TUNISIA 2,42 2,31 1,92 1,66 1,54 1,11 JORDAN MOROCCO EGYPT LIBYA TUNISIA IRAQ 2,85 2,44 2,26 2,11 2,09 1,97 TSI TSI JORDAN IRAQ MOROCCO LIBYA EGYPT TUNISIA 2,79 2,56 2,46 2,24 2,1 1,96 JORDAN EGYPT IRAQ LIBYA MOROCCO TUNISIA 3,17 2,73 2,61 2,58 2,57 2,47

10. CORRELATIONS AMONG THE INDEXES OF SECURITY WVS PSI 1 CSI .210** NSI .106** TSI .657** PSI CSI .210** 1 .111** .612** NSI .106** .111** 1 .690** TSI .657** .612** .690** 1 ARAB TRANS PSI PSI 1 CSI ,311** NSI ,550** TSI ,853** ,311** 1 ,179** ,574** CSI ,550** ,179** 1 ,814** NSI ,853** ,574** ,814** 1 TSI

11. REGRESSION MODELS Percentage of the Variance Explained by Model PSI CSI NSI TSI WVS 6 4 5 6 ARAB TRANS 10 23 7 17

12. BEST PREDICTORS OF SECURITY PSI CSI NSI TSI Confidence in Government Happiness Confidence in Police Confidence in Government Satisfaction with life Confidence in Government WVS Confidence in religious leaders Perceived health Confidence in Police Confidence in religious leaders Confidence in Armed Forces Confidence in Police Confidence in Police Confidence in religious leaders ARAB TRANS

13. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION juandieznicolas@gmail.com alopeznarbona@uma.es