Future of Gas in Low-Income Electrification Report
Report highlights the shift towards electrification for low-income households, focusing on ASHPs to provide cleaner heat and lower bills. It addresses current opportunities, practical obstacles, and customer considerations in transitioning to electric alternatives. Despite challenges, evolving technologies offer promising solutions for a sustainable future.
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LOW LOW- -INCOME INCOME ELECTRIFICATION: ELECTRIFICATION: A report from the trenches FUTURE OF GAS (D.P.U. 20-80) STAKEHOLDERS JANUARY 25, 2022 Jerrold Oppenheim Counsel, Low-Income Energy Affordability Network
LEAN LEAN LOW-INCOME ENERGY AFFORDABILITY NETWORK RATEPAYER-FINANCED COMPREHENSIVE WHOLE HOUSE L-I EE AT NO CUSTOMER COST WITH FULL PROJECT MANAGEMENT & 100% QC LONG-TERM SUCCESSFUL PARTNERSHIP WITH PROGRAM ADMINISTRATORS, INCLUDING ALL MASS. UTILITIES FOR MANY CUSTOMERS, ASHPs OFFER CLEANER HEAT ON-SITE AND LOWER BILLS, IN ADDITION TO GHG REDUCTIONS CUSTOMER EDUCATION 2022-2024 GOAL IS 6596 LI ASHPs (& WEATHERIZATION IF NOT DONE) MASS SAVE LI ASHP BUDGET = ~$50M OVER THREE YEARS January 25, 2022 LEAN Electrification - Jerrold Oppenheim, Counsel 2
CURRENT LI ASHP CURRENT LI ASHP OPPORTUNITIES OPPORTUNITIES Fuel Type Electricity (baseboard) Highest bills so highest priority Delivered fuels (Oil, Propane, Kerosene) Forced Hot Water Forced Warm Air Steam Propane space heaters Switching from gas raises bills Marginal systems/end of life Building characteristics Open concept floor plans Full basements and attics for ductwork Outdoor unit locations Housing Type Single family 2-4 unit multi-family Mobile Homes January 25, 2022 LEAN Electrification - Jerrold Oppenheim, Counsel 3
NOT FOR ALL HOMES (1) NOT FOR ALL HOMES (1) Practical obstacles House size (usually economic to 2000 sq ft) Small rooms (e.g., bathrooms heated differently) House layout (open preferable) Ducts require space January 25, 2022 LEAN Electrification - Jerrold Oppenheim, Counsel 4
NOT FOR ALL HOMES (2) NOT FOR ALL HOMES (2) Customer considerations NO HEAT emergencies (ASHPs take time) HPWH limitations (slow recovery, cold basements) Client resistance/lack of understanding Quality of heat (hot water v hot air) Noise Maintenance difficulty Resistance to change Simple partials to dip toe in the water can bring savings, but caution required BUT ... * Technology continues to evolve, e.g., horizon includes: * Hot water HPs that use outside air * Air to water for baseboard heating January 25, 2022 LEAN Electrification - Jerrold Oppenheim, Counsel 5
HOT WATER HOT WATER One professional concludes, It s not unlimited hot showers and bubble baths with heat pump water heating. NEW TECHNOLOGIES CAN BE SUBJECT TO RISKS LOW- INCOME FAMILIES CANNOT TAKE Remember the Segway, Betamax, or Picturephone. Heat pump water heaters may save carbon, but at the expense of inadequate supplies of hot water or unacceptably cold basements. Heating professionals warn: You may find that, during peak times, this type of water heater might fall short of demand. This can be particularly frustrating if you re a larger family and everyone wants (or needs!) a shower. When this happens, you ll have to give your heat pump model time to recover. Unconditioned basements without other equipment to draw heat from can result in unacceptably lower basement temperatures. January 25, 2022 LEAN Electrification - Jerrold Oppenheim, Counsel 6
ACTUAL ACTUAL COSTS COSTS First cost of ASHPs -- Current LI EE Plan (Exh. NG- Electric-5 in D.P.U. 21-128, Exh. NS-Electric-5 in D.P.U. 21- 129, adj. by LEAN experience), conservative, ex overheads: Partial displacement of oil/propane (central, mini-split) - $6,000 - $20,000 Electric resistance displacement But wait, there s more Wx ($5000-6000, + ~$10,000 to replace poor windows) to right-size HP Maintenance ($250/year) Oil furnace/boiler removal Oil & tank removal (hazardous waste) Electric ranges & dryers (~ $1000) Add EV charger ($2,500) Add Battery backup ($8,000-10,000) - $18,000 - $25,000 Full displacement of oil/propane (central, mini-split) - $20,000 - $35,000 Includes, as needed, electric panel upgrades, snow shields, window screens Future sharp cost reductions not certaint January 25, 2022 LEAN Electrification - Jerrold Oppenheim, Counsel 7
FINANCING FINANCING: : A public policy challenge Don t impose stranded costs on last to switch Do Converting and weatherizing every identified LI home in Mass. will require >$5B After current 10-year estimated ratepayer-financed MassSave, Federal funding (WAP, HEARTWAP) Low-income households do not have this Current ratepayer-financed MassSave LI ASHP budget ~$50M/year, with annual Federal funding > > 90-year program Adding EV chargers and batteries brings net required to >$9 B 8 January 25, 2022 LEAN Electrification - Jerrold Oppenheim, Counsel
Massachusetts Low-Income Single-Family Climate Investment: Air Source Heat Pumps, Weatherization, EV chargers $8.0 $7.5 $7.0 $6.0 $5.0 $4.0 $ B $3.0 $2.0 A 95-year program $0.79 $1.0 $0.0 NEEDED COMMITTED (proj. 10 years) January 25, 2022 LEAN Electrification - Jerrold Oppenheim, Counsel 9
QUESTIONS? QUESTIONS? Jerrold Oppenheim Counsel, Low-Income Energy Affordability Network 57 Middle St., Gloucester 01930 JerroldOpp@DemocracyAndRegulation.com 978.283.0897 January 25, 2022 LEAN Electrification - Jerrold Oppenheim, Counsel 10
