Dissecting Disaster Behavior Myths: Insights from Dr. Dennis S. Mileti's Keynote
Delve into the exploration of disaster behavior myths through the enlightening keynote address by Dr. Dennis S. Mileti, a distinguished Professor Emeritus. Unravel the origins, perpetuation, and implications of these myths while debunking prevalent misconceptions about public response, safety perceptions, and attention-holding strategies in times of crisis.
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Dennis S. Mileti, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus University of Colorado at Boulder Keynote Address Policy Forum, Naval Postgraduate School Center for Homeland Defense and Security Monterey, CA: November 9, 2009 1
Youll Have Conversations With Yourself While I m Speaking: And they might sound something like this: He s wrong & I have evidence that proves it Request: Don t let internal dialogues distract you from listening We can talk about counterpoints later 2
Review Some Disaster Behavior Myths Discuss The Source Of Disaster Myths Address How Myths Are Perpetuated Implications Of Belief in Myths 3
People Believe Something Is True But its not They Think They Have Evidence For It: But they don t And They Won t Stop Believing It: No matter what others might say 4
Exist About Every Phase Of Disaster: Pre-impact During impact Post-impact Regarding All Disaster Actors: Public Response organizations Emergency workers 5
MYTH: Frighten the public Property values will decline Tourists and investors will stay away There are no tsunami (or shark) signs in Honolulu REALITY: Disasters happen to other people in other places People perceive safety, not risk Example: San Francisco s Marina District 7
MYTH: You can t hold the public s attention Warn people at risk in a few words Let the media handle the rest REALITY: Applies to advertising & undergraduate lectures Doesn t apply to warnings Warned people become information starved They ll find what they want to know someplace else 8
MYTH: People will panic (self over others) Individual motives replace social motives We didn t issue a warning to avoid panic REALITY: Social motives replace individual motives Actual panic is VERY rare Four conditions must exist: People in confined spaces Escape routes exist, not enough time for all to use them Think will die if don t leave People have to compete to live 9
MYTH: People will loot and steal Take valuables from dead neighbors Steal what evacuees left behind REALITY: People give to each other in disasters Free McDonald s hamburgers Share what they have to eat/drink with strangers Example: bread convergence in Soviet Armenia 10
MYTH: Emergency worker s wives (at home) become helpless, & forget how to drive First responders (men) have role conflict, abandon their jobs, & go home to rescue their helpless wives NRC has most NNPs in America train an extra 20% REALITY: 95% of people rescued in urban earthquakes rescued by other surviving victims (emergent work groups) Role strain & succession occurs Multiple shifts of first responders reported in at TMI 11
MTYH: People do wrong things because of fear: Run outside in earthquakes Dash to schools to get their kids Shadow evacuation (safe people evacuate) REALITY: People do what they think is rational TMI over-evacuation was actually rational 12
MYTH: Evacuees in cars fight on highways & in gas stations Martial law & National Guard are needed to maintain law and order REALITY: Accidents goes down in evacuations Spousal abuse goes down (at least initially) Crime all but disappears What does go up is alcohol consumption: It s a coping mechanism 13
Myths Synthesis : Disasters strip the thin veneer of civilization from humanity & its everyone for themselves The public = the problem Reality Synthesis: The thin veneer of civilization is actually, albeit temporarily, strengthened The public = part of the solution 14
Inherently Sociological Questions Most Disaster Myths Are Decades Old: Sociological papers on the topic abound and date back to the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s Search for disaster myths on Google & you can access many of those papers Some Myths Have Existed For Centuries 15
Most People Know Disasters Change Our Physical Environment: Rubble, destruction, collapsed & burnt buildings Everyone can see it Most People Don t Know Disasters Also Change Our Social Environment: The social glue that holds society together is transformed by disaster Most non-social scientists can t see it 16
Is Pretty Much Applicable To Everyone: Transcends time, culture & space Holds Regardless of Disaster Agent: Natural, technological, terrorism, etc. Part Of Many Freshman Sociology Courses 17
Emergencies: CAPACITY: of local emergency response not exceeded GAPS: no service delivery gaps CONVERGENCE: of external response organizations absent Disasters: CAPACITY: of local emergency response exceeded GAPS: emergent public response due to service delivery gaps CONVERGENCE: external responders quick to arrive Catastrophes: CAPACITY: of local emergency response exceeded GAPS: emergent public response due to service delivery gaps CONVERGENCE: external responders slower to arrive 18
Service Delivery Gaps Focus: Emergent public response Emergent Public Response Reinforce: Transformation of the social order Transformation Of The Social Order Means: The social glue that holds society together shifts The blueprint for interpersonal interaction alters 19
NORMAL DISASTER 21
Normal Social Order: Social glue = secondary relationships Transformation (normal to disaster): Empathy, guilt, disaster syndrome Disaster Social Order: Social glue = collective behavior (like intense primary relationships) Transformation (disaster back to normal): Convergence from the outside Mutual aid, FEMA, National guard, etc. Goals achieved 22
DISASTER CHAOS 23
Transformation (disaster to chaos): Overwhelm: can t achieve goals Isolation: no convergence Theoretically possible: only observed twice in history Chaos Social Order: No social glue, no relationships, withdrawal, society ends Transformation (chaos to disaster): Convergence from the outside Mutual aid, FEMA, National guard, etc. Goals not yet achieved Transformation (disaster to normal): Goals achieved 24
NORMAL DISASTER CHAOS 25
Viewing Disaster Interaction Through Normal Non-Disaster Eyes: Outsiders (not transformed) at a disaster scene: New social glue/order looks different & call it chaos Pre-disaster what would you do if surveys Has Always Happened & Always Will Lectures Like This Will Always Be Needed 27
What Weve Just Gone Over Is: Is pretty close to a cultural universal: It occurs independent of time, space & culture Is Part Of Being Human: There may have been species of humans that didn t respond to disasters this way: But they died out 28
Disaster Myths Are Passed Along: Person to person & Generation to generation As Folk Knowledge: Through popular culture Via The Same Mechanism That Transmits All Folk Wisdom Elements Including: Stereotypes, values, mores, gender roles, etc. Here Are Some Examples .. 30
Myths Sell Movie Tickets, Reality Doesnt: MYTH: Disaster cause the thin veneer of civilization to be stripped from humanity and its everyone for themselves, e.g., panic, role abandonment & looting REALITY: Disasters bring out the best in people, not the worst Many Believe What They See In Movies: Even some emergency managers 31
Media Can (not always) Exaggerate: Initial death estimates typically twice reality TV anchor stage during Loma Prieta Near panic at Kiev train station in Chernobyl Chaos everywhere often reported After Its Over Most Mayors Exclaim: I m proud of my community we re unique When the chips were down everyone here came together to help each other: (IMPLYING: unlike the rest of you slimy panic-prone American looters ) 32
Rare Exceptions To General Patterns Exist: E.g., looting, aberrant behavior & role abandonment in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina Become Evidence For The Myths: Legitimate the myths Validate policies based on myths One good exception can negate 100s (maybe 1,000s) of case events to the contrary 33
Misplaced Resources? Poorly Conceived Policies & Programs? Under Funded Solutions? Opportunities Overlooked? 35
Emergencies - Disasters - Catastrophes? Particularly Since We Know That: Emergencies, disasters, and catastrophes are inherently different phenomena And since they re different, why do we call it all emergency management ? 36
