Analysis of New COVID-19 Cases and Testing Trends in South Africa - 08 October 2020

Slide Note

The daily report and commentary on the COVID-19 situation in South Africa for October 8, 2020, highlight the fluctuations in new cases across provinces, testing volumes, positivity rates, and demographic distributions. The analysis shows a mixed picture with some regions experiencing increases while others see decreases, impacting the overall 7-day moving average trend. The provincial proportions and cumulative case numbers provide insights into the current state of the pandemic in different parts of the country.

tkha Follow

Uploaded on Sep 20, 2024 | 0 Views

Download Presentation

Please find below an Image/Link to download the presentation.

The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author. Download presentation by click this link. If you encounter any issues during the download, it is possible that the publisher has removed the file from their server.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

NICD Daily Report and Commentary 08 October 2020

OUTLINE New cases of COVID-19 and new PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 Number of cases Provincial proportions Testing volumes Proportion Positive Age and gender

New cases of COVID-19 and new PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 Number of new cases The total number of cases today (n=1 736) is less than yesterday (n= 1 913), and more than the average number of new cases per day over the 7 preceding days (n=1 546). The 7-day moving average daily number of cases has increased (Figure 1 dotted red line). The number of new cases (Table 1 and Figure 3): Increased in FS (from 398 yesterday to 413 today) Increased in MP (from 86 yesterday to 125 today) Increased in LP (from 69 yesterday to 104 today) Unchanged in EC (from 174 yesterday to 174 today) Decreased in GP (from 394 yesterday to 319 today) Decreased in WC (from 230 yesterday to 186 today) Decreased in NC (from 212 yesterday to 183 today) Decreased in NW (from 189 yesterday to 118 today) Decreased in KZN (from 161 yesterday to 114 today) The 7-day moving average number of new cases by province is shown in Figure 2. The cumulative number of cases to date as shown in Figure 3.

Figure 1. Number of new daily PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 and cases of COVID-19 by date of reporting and health sector, and 7-day moving average number of cases, 6 April 2020 to date, South Africa

Figure 2. 7-day moving average number of new cases by province and date of reporting, 12 April to date, South Africa

Figure 3. Cases by Specimen Received Date

Provincial proportions The majority of new cases today are from FS (24%) followed by GP (18%). NC accounted for 11%, EC accounted for 10%, NW, KZN and MP accounted for 7% each, LP accounted for 6% The proportion of new cases accounted for by WC today is 11%, similar than the preceding 7 days - Table 1 and Figure 4. The cumulative number of cases by province is shown in Figure 5.

Table 1. Number and % of new daily cases of COVID-19 and PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 and proportion positive by province as of today, South Africa New tests reported today Proportion positive (cases/tests) New cases % total New tests % total New cases today Province Eastern Cape 174 1271 14% 10% 6% Free State 413 2014 21% 24% 10% Gauteng 319 6216 5% 18% 29% KwaZulu-Natal 114 3703 3% 7% 17% Limpopo 104 653 16% 6% 3% Mpumalanga 125 1062 12% 7% 5% North West 118 680 17% 7% 3% Northern Cape 183 958 19% 11% 5% Western Cape 186 3089 6% 11% 15% Unknown 0 1526 0% 0% 7% Total 1736 21172 8% 100% 100%

Figure 4. Proportion of new cases of COVID-19 by province and date of reporting, 6 April 2020 to date, South Africa

Figure 5. Cumulative cases by Province

Testing volumes The volume of tests reported today (n= 21 172) is 10% less than the 23 583 tests reported yesterday. Sector PRIVATE PUBLIC Total Total tested New tested 2 472 926 1 866 760 4 339 686 57% 43% 14 479 6 693 21 172 68% 32%

Proportion positive The proportion of positive new cases/total new tested today is 8%, which is the same as yesterday. The 7-day average is 8.3% today, same as yesterday (Figure 6 dotted red line). The proportions positive today were: Higher in FS (19% yesterday and 21% today) Higher in LP (11% yesterday to 16% today) Higher in EC (10% yesterday to 14% today) Higher in MP (7% yesterday to 12% today) Unchanged in WC (6% yesterday to 6% today) Lower in GP (6% yesterday to 5% today) Lower in NW (18% yesterday to 17% today) Lower in KZN (4% yesterday to 3% today) Lower in NC (23% yesterday and 19% today)

Figure 6. Number of new daily PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 and proportion positive by date of reporting and health sector, and 7-day moving average proportion positive, 6 April 2020 to date, South Africa

Age and Gender The age and sex distribution of new cases has not changed substantially in the last few days (Figure 7). Cumulative cases stratified by age group and sex is shown in Figure 8.