Why Focus on Fatalities and Fatal Boating Accidents? Insights by Dr. L. Daniel Maxim
Why focus on fatalities and
fatal boating accidents?
Dr. L. Daniel Maxim, Chair NBSAC
Background
•
Although
Boating Statistics
attempts to
include all reportable accidents, most of
the analyses conducted on BARD data for
NBSAC have focused on
fatal
accidents
and
fatalities
•
One might argue that this omits
potentially valuable data and that it is
appropriate to consider all accidents (even
property damage only [PDO] accidents)
2
Background (contd.)
•
This briefing explains the key reasons for
our focus on fatalities. In brief, these
include:
–
Knowledge and completeness
–
Potential importance in terms of social cost,
and
–
Relevance of lessons learned
3
KNOWLEDGE AND
COMPLETENESS
4
Data completeness
•
Although there are legal requirements to
file boating accident reports with
authorities there is evidence from reliable
studies that nonfatal accidents are
significantly under-reported (see
following)
•
Moreover, it is likely that fatal accidents
are likely to be investigated more
thoroughly
5
Legal requirement to file an
accident report
(
33 CFR Part 173; Subpart C)
•
The operator of any recreational vessel is
required to file a BAR when:
–
1. A person dies; or
–
2. A person disappears from the vessel under
circumstances that indicate death or injury; or
–
3. A person is injured and requires medical
treatment beyond first aid; or
–
4. Damage to vessels and other property
totals $2,000 or more; or
–
5. There is a complete loss of any vessel.
6
Studies
•
Over the years the Coast
Guard has funded several
studies to assess the
accuracy of reported
accidents with nonfatal
outcomes and PDO
accidents
•
Results of these studies
are consistent
7
Relevant studies
8
Statement in
Boating Statistics
•
“It is recommended that any researcher focus
on fatal data since the confidence of this data is
very high. The Coast Guard works with state
marine agencies, other federal agencies, and
news media aggregating services to identify
boating incidents. Despite best efforts to
document incidents, the Coast Guard is only
confident in its capture of deceased victims since
fatal accidents undoubtedly involve state or
government oversight, and garner more
attention in the news media.”
9
POTENTIAL IMPORTANCE
10
Importance
•
The social cost of individual fatal accidents
is greater (on average) than for accidents
with nonfatal injuries and PDO accidents
•
Even though there are many more
nonfatal than fatal accidents, studies
suggest that the overall understatement of
social costs is probably no more than 25%
11
Importance
•
We should continue to search for ways to
increase the completeness of BARD and/or
to compensate for under-reporting, but
our focus on fatal accidents is certainly
justified
12
RELEVANCE OF LESSONS
LEARNED
13
Relevance of lessons to be
learned
•
There is abundant evidence from studies
of other transportation modes that fatal
differ from nonfatal accidents in several
ways, including:
–
Type of accident,
–
Demographics of participants/victims
–
Accident causes and contributing factors and
–
Counter measures likely to be successful
•
We have limited evidence of the same
with boating accidents
14
Top ten contributing factors
2016 boating fatalities
15
Top ten contributing factors
2016 boating accidents
16
Demographic differences
automobiles (1990)
•
Per mile driven, men had about 1.5 times the risk
of women of experiencing a fatal accident.
However, the difference in the fatal rate between
men and women was most extreme among the
younger age groups, and by age 60, the rates for
men and women were essentially identical.
•
For non-fatal accidents, a different picture
emerged. Per mile driven, women were found to
have a 26% higher injury involvement rate and
16% higher rate in all police-reported accidents
compared to men.
17
Lessons to be learned: industrial
accidents
•
In September 1998 Esso Australia’s gas plant at
Longford in Victoria, Australia, suffered a major
fire. Two men were killed and the state’s gas
supply was severed for two weeks, causing chaos
in Victorian industry and considerable hardship in
homes which were dependent on gas.
•
A warm liquid system (known as the “lean oil”
system) failed, allowing a metal heat exchanger to
become intensely cold and therefore brittle. When
operators tried to reintroduce warm lean oil, the
vessel fractured and released a large quantity of
gas which found an ignition source and exploded.
18
More on Longford
•
There is often an attempt to blame major
accidents on operator error. This was the position
taken by Esso at the Royal Commission. Esso
argued that operators and their supervisors on
duty at the time should have known that the
attempt to reintroduce a warm liquid could result
in brittle fracture.
•
Later analysis showed that a major contributing
factor was the fact that Esso had not carried out a
critical hazard identification process, standard in
the industry, know as a HAZOP (short for hazard
and operability study.
19
More on Longford
•
Ironically Esso’s safety performance at the time,
as measured by its Lost Time Injury Frequency
Rate, was enviable, indeed award winning
•
To understand this paradox of how a company
with such an enviable safety record was
apparently so inattentive to the hazards which led
to the fire we need to distinguish between high
frequency low severity events such as slips, trips
and falls, which result in injury to single individuals
and low frequency high severity incidents such as
explosions and major fires, which may result in
multiple fatalities
20
Conclusion
•
It may be appropriate to study all types of
accidents to identify causes, contributing
factors, and possible counter-measures
•
But a focus on fatal accidents is certainly
justified in terms of data completeness,
probable accuracy, relevance, and social
cost
21
Conclusion
•
In short, focus on fatal accidents is
justified because:
–
The accident database is virtually complete
–
The accidents are well investigated—typically
by trained investigators rather than reported
by participants
–
The accidents are more representative of high
value accidents in terms of causes,
contributing factors, accident types, and clues
for intervention strategies
22
Boating accident statistics often focus on fatal incidents for reasons including knowledge, completeness, social cost, and lessons learned. Nonfatal accidents are under-reported, making fatal data more reliable. Legal requirements mandate reporting of accidents based on specific criteria, ensuring thorough investigation of fatal incidents. Studies consistently support the accuracy of reported nonfatal and property damage only accidents. Recommendations emphasize the importance of researchers concentrating on fatal data due to its high confidence level.
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Presentation Transcript
Why focus on fatalities and fatal boating accidents? Dr. L. Daniel Maxim, Chair NBSAC
Background Although Boating Statistics attempts to include all reportable accidents, most of the analyses conducted on BARD data for NBSAC have focused on fatal accidents and fatalities One might argue that this omits potentially valuable data and that it is appropriate to consider all accidents (even property damage only [PDO] accidents) 2
Background (contd.) This briefing explains the key reasons for our focus on fatalities. In brief, these include: Knowledge and completeness Potential importance in terms of social cost, and Relevance of lessons learned 3
KNOWLEDGE AND COMPLETENESS 4
Data completeness Although there are legal requirements to file boating accident reports with authorities there is evidence from reliable studies that nonfatal accidents are significantly under-reported (see following) Moreover, it is likely that fatal accidents are likely to be investigated more thoroughly 5
Legal requirement to file an accident report (33 CFR Part 173; Subpart C) The operator of any recreational vessel is required to file a BAR when: 1. A person dies; or 2. A person disappears from the vessel under circumstances that indicate death or injury; or 3. A person is injured and requires medical treatment beyond first aid; or 4. Damage to vessels and other property totals $2,000 or more; or 5. There is a complete loss of any vessel. 6
Studies Over the years the Coast Guard has funded several studies to assess the accuracy of reported accidents with nonfatal outcomes and PDO accidents Results of these studies are consistent 7
Statement in Boating Statistics It is recommended that any researcher focus on fatal data since the confidence of this data is very high. The Coast Guard works with state marine agencies, other federal agencies, and news media aggregating services to identify boating incidents. Despite best efforts to document incidents, the Coast Guard is only confident in its capture of deceased victims since fatal accidents undoubtedly involve state or government oversight, and garner more attention in the news media. 9
Importance The social cost of individual fatal accidents is greater (on average) than for accidents with nonfatal injuries and PDO accidents Even though there are many more nonfatal than fatal accidents, studies suggest that the overall understatement of social costs is probably no more than 25% 11
Importance We should continue to search for ways to increase the completeness of BARD and/or to compensate for under-reporting, but our focus on fatal accidents is certainly justified 12
RELEVANCE OF LESSONS LEARNED 13
Relevance of lessons to be learned There is abundant evidence from studies of other transportation modes that fatal differ from nonfatal accidents in several ways, including: Type of accident, Demographics of participants/victims Accident causes and contributing factors and Counter measures likely to be successful We have limited evidence of the same with boating accidents 14
Top ten contributing factors 2016 boating fatalities 15
Top ten contributing factors 2016 boating accidents 16
Demographic differences automobiles (1990) Per mile driven, men had about 1.5 times the risk of women of experiencing a fatal accident. However, the difference in the fatal rate between men and women was most extreme among the younger age groups, and by age 60, the rates for men and women were essentially identical. For non-fatal accidents, a different picture emerged. Per mile driven, women were found to have a 26% higher injury involvement rate and 16% higher rate in all police-reported accidents compared to men. 17
Lessons to be learned: industrial accidents In September 1998 Esso Australia s gas plant at Longford in Victoria, Australia, suffered a major fire. Two men were killed and the state s gas supply was severed for two weeks, causing chaos in Victorian industry and considerable hardship in homes which were dependent on gas. A warm liquid system (known as the lean oil system) failed, allowing a metal heat exchanger to become intensely cold and therefore brittle. When operators tried to reintroduce warm lean oil, the vessel fractured and released a large quantity of gas which found an ignition source and exploded.18
More on Longford There is often an attempt to blame major accidents on operator error. This was the position taken by Esso at the Royal Commission. Esso argued that operators and their supervisors on duty at the time should have known that the attempt to reintroduce a warm liquid could result in brittle fracture. Later analysis showed that a major contributing factor was the fact that Esso had not carried out a critical hazard identification process, standard in the industry, know as a HAZOP (short for hazard and operability study. 19
More on Longford Ironically Esso s safety performance at the time, as measured by its Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate, was enviable, indeed award winning To understand this paradox of how a company with such an enviable safety record was apparently so inattentive to the hazards which led to the fire we need to distinguish between high frequency low severity events such as slips, trips and falls, which result in injury to single individuals and low frequency high severity incidents such as explosions and major fires, which may result in multiple fatalities 20
Conclusion It may be appropriate to study all types of accidents to identify causes, contributing factors, and possible counter-measures But a focus on fatal accidents is certainly justified in terms of data completeness, probable accuracy, relevance, and social cost 21
Conclusion In short, focus on fatal accidents is justified because: The accident database is virtually complete The accidents are well investigated typically by trained investigators rather than reported by participants The accidents are more representative of high value accidents in terms of causes, contributing factors, accident types, and clues for intervention strategies 22
