Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities in P/C Insurance: Focus on Mississippi Markets
P/C insurance industry faced challenges with declining net written premiums in 2007-2009 but observed growth in recent years. Combined ratio improved with high cat losses and soft market toll. Net income after taxes fluctuated from 1991-2015 with 2010 showing a notable return on equity. However, the industry's profitability peaks and troughs present uncertainties for the future.
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Trends, Challenges and Opportunities in P/C Insurance Focus on Mississippi Markets MSU Insurance-Day Starkville, MS April 6, 2016 Steven N. Weisbart, Ph.D., CLU, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist Insurance Information Institute 110 William Street New York, NY 10038 Tel: 212.346.5540 Cell: 917.494.5945 stevenw@iii.org www.iii.org
Insurance Industry: Financial Update & Outlook 2015 Was a Reasonably Good Year 2016: A Repeat of 2015? 2 2
Net Premium Growth: Annual Change, 1971 2016F (Percent) 1975-78 1984-87 2000-03 25% Net Written Premiums Fell 0.7% in 2007 (First Decline Since 1943) by 2.0% in 2008, and 4.2% in 2009, the First 3- Year Decline Since 1930-33. 20% 2015-16F: 4.0% 2014E: 4.1% 2013: 4.6% 2012: +4.3% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15F 16F Shaded areas denote hard market periods Sources: A.M. Best (historical and forecast), ISO, Insurance Information Institute. 3
P/C Insurance Industry Combined Ratio, 2001 2015:Q3 (Est.)* Insurers Paid Nearly $1.16 for Every $1 in Earned Premiums Higher CAT Losses, Shrinking Reserve Releases, Toll of Soft Market 120 115.8 Best Combined Ratio Since 1949 (87.6) 110 107.5 106.3 102.4 101.0 100.8 100.8 100.1 100 99.3 98.4 97.2 96.7 96.7 95.7 92.6 06 90 01 02 03 04 05 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15:Q3 Heavy Use of Reinsurance Lowered Net Losses * Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers 2008--2014. Including M&FG, 2008=105.1, 2009=100.7, 2010=102.4, 2011=108.1; 2012:=103.2; 2013: = 96.1; 2014: = 97.0. Sources: A.M. Best, ISO. 4
P/C Industry Net Income After Taxes 1991 2015 (Est.) 2006 ROE = 12.7% 2007 ROE = 10.9% 2008 ROE = 0.1% 2009 ROE = 5.0% 2010 ROE = 6.6% 2011 ROAS1 = 3.5% 2012 ROAS1 = 5.9% 2013 ROAS1 = 10.2% 2014 ROAS1 = 8.4% 2015:H1 ROAS = 9.2% $ Millions $80,000 $65,777 $63,784 $62,496 $70,000 $55,501 $55,000 $60,000 $44,155 $38,501 $36,819 $50,000 $35,204 $33,522 $30,773 $30,029 $28,672 $40,000 $24,404 $21,865 $20,598 $20,559 $19,316 $19,456 $30,000 $14,178 $10,870 $20,000 $5,840 $3,046 $3,043 $10,000 $0 -$6,970 -$10,000 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 8.2% ROAS in 2014, 9.8% ROAS in 2013, 6.2% ROAS in 2012, 4.7% ROAS for 2011, 7.6% for 2010 and 7.4% for 2009. Sources: A.M. Best, ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry, 1975 2016F ROE History suggests next ROE peak will be in 2016-2017, but that seems unlikely 1977:19.0% 1987:17.3% 25% 20% 2006:12.7% 1997:11.6% 2013 9.8% 15% 2015F=6.5% 2016F=6.3% 9 Years 10% 5% 2014 8.2% 0% 2001: -1.2% 1975: 2.4% 1984: 1.8% 1992: 4.5% -5% 15F 16F 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 *Profitability = P/C insurer ROEs. 2011-14 figures are estimates based on ROAS data. Note: Data for 2008-2014 exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers. Source: Insurance Information Institute; NAIC, ISO, A.M. Best, Conning
Return on Net Worth (RNW) Largest Lines: 2005-2014 Average Commercial lines have tended to be more profitable than personal lines over the past decade Percent 15.6 16 12.8 11.9 12 8.0 8 6.9 6.7 6.4 6.3 6.2 3.8 4 2.8 2.2 0 Comm Auto Other Liability A & H PP Auto Total Commercial Farm MP Homeowners Allied Lines Workers Fire Inland Marine Med Prof Liab Comp Total MP MP Source: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute. 7
RNW All Lines by State, 10-Year (2005-2014) Avg Return on Net Worth (%) 25 Profitability Benchmark: All P/C US: 8.4% 19.4 20 15.6 14.2 13.9 15 13.0 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.2 11.9 11.9 11.5 10.9 10.6 10.6 10.3 10.1 10.1 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.5 10 5 0 AK HI VT FL OK ND WV NC OH NH OR UT VA LA MA TN KS TX WY AR IN The most profitable states over the past decade are widely distributed geographically RI CT ID NM SD Source: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute. 8
RNW All Lines by State, 2005-2014 Average: (cont d) Return on Net Worth (%) 9.4 9.3 10 9.0 8.7 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.2 8.1 7.9 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 8 6.9 6.8 5.6 5.1 6 4.8 3.4 4 2 0 -0.2 -0.6 -2 -4 -6 -5.3 -8 -10 -10.3 -12 -14 AL ME MO KY WA MD US IL MN NY MS CA WI NV NJ AZ SC DE PA GA MI CO MT IA NE 9 Source: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.
Policyholder Surplus, 2006:Q4 2015:Q3 ($ Billions) $750 Drop due to near-record 2011 CAT losses 2007:Q3 Pre-Crisis Peak $673.9 $674.7 $672.4 $671.6 $671.7 $662.0 $700 $663.9 $653.4 $624.4 $650 $614.0 $607.7 $586.9 $583.5 $566.5 $570.7 $600 $567.8 $559.2 $559.1 $550.3 $544.8 $540.7 $538.6 $530.5 $521.8 $550 $517.9 $515.6 $512.8 $511.5 $505.0 $496.6 $490.8 $487.1 $478.5 $500 $463.0 $455.6 Surplus as of 9/30/15 stood at $663.9B $437.1 $450 $400 06:Q4 07:Q1 07:Q2 07:Q3 07:Q4 08:Q1 08:Q2 08:Q3 08:Q4 09:Q1 09:Q2 09:Q3 09:Q4 10:Q1 10:Q2 10:Q3 10:Q4 11:Q1 11:Q2 11:Q3 11:Q4 12:Q1 12:Q2 12:Q3 12:Q4 13:Q1 13:Q2 13:Q3 13:Q4 14:Q1 14:Q2 14:Q3 14:Q4 15:Q1 15:Q2 15:Q3 The industry now has $1 of surplus for every $0.75 of NPW, close to the strongest claims-paying status in its history. 2010:Q1 data includes $22.5B of paid-in capital from a holding company parent for one insurer s investment in a non- insurance business. The P/C insurance industry entered 2016 in very strong financial condition. Sources: ISO, A.M .Best. 10
Historical Analysis of Mississippi P/C Insurance Markets Analysis by Line and Nearby State Comparisons 12
RNW All Lines: MS vs. U.S., 2005-2014 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% Average 2005-2014 US: 6.7% MS: -7.4% -100% -120% -140% -160% 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 US All Lines MS All Lines Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute 14
RNW All Lines: MS vs. U.S., 2005-2014 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Average 2005-2014 US: 6.7% MS: -7.4% 0% -2% -4% 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 US All Lines MS All Lines Mississippi s all-lines RNW topped the US overall in most years of the last decade Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute 15
RNW PP Auto: MS vs. U.S., 2005-2013 Average 2005-2014 US: 6.2% MS: 3.6% 20% 14.7% 15% 12.1% 8.0% 7.7% 7.6% 10% 6.4% 11.6% 5.1% 10.6% 4.6% 8.3% 5% 5.6% 4.8% 4.6% 4.5% 4.4% 4.2% 3.6% 0% -7.1% -5% -10% -15% -20% -22.9% -25% 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 13 US PP Auto MS PP Auto Mississippi s PP Auto RNW topped the US overall in most years of the last decade Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute 16
RNW Commercial Multi-Peril: MS vs. U.S., 2005-2014 40% 18.5% 17.5% 15.5% 11.6% 10.5% 9.5% 9.8% 20% -2.4% 0% 11.2% 11.2% 9.5% 6.8% 6.6% 6.3% 5.7% 3.2% 2.5% 0.6% -20% -22.8% -40% Average 2005-2014 US: 6.4% MS: -7.5% -60% -80% -100% -120% -142.9% -140% -160% 05 06 US Comm M-P 07 08 09 10 MS Comm M-P 11 12 13 14 Sources: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute 18
RNW Homeowners: MS vs. U.S., 2005-2014 50% 19.2% 19.2% 16.2% 10.7% 8.8% 7.0% 7.5% 1.7% -4.4% 0% 13.9% 9.0% 8.5% 6.5% 2.6% 1.3% 0.7% -7.3% -8.1% -8.3% -50% -100% -150% Average 2005-2014 US: 3.8% MS: -26.8% -200% -250% -300% -335.0% -350% -400% 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 US HO MS HO Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute 19
RNW Workers Compensation: MS vs. U.S., 2005-2014 Average 2005-2014 US: 6.3% MS: 7.7% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 US WComp MS Wcomp Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute 20
PP Auto: 10-Year Average RNW MS & Nearby States Mississippi PP Auto profitability is in the middle of its neighbors 2005-2014 Mississippi 4.6% 3.9% Alabama 8.2% Tennessee 7.0% Arkansas 1.5% Louisiana 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute
Commercial Multiple-Peril: 10-Year Average RNW, MS & Neighbors Mississippi Commercial Multi-Peril profitability is far below its regional neighbors 2005-2014 Mississippi -2.40% 7.0% Alabama 10.9% Tennessee 7.3% Arkansas 10.7% Louisiana -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute
Homeowners: 10-Year Average RNW MS & Nearby States Mississippi HO profitability is below all but one of its neighbors 2005-2014 Mississippi 8.8% 15.8% Alabama 13.4% Tennessee 7.4% Arkansas 27.6% Louisiana 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute
Workers Comp: 10-Year Average RNW MS & Nearby States Mississippi Workers Comp profitability is basically even with its neighbors 2005-2014 Mississippi 8.7% 8.2% Alabama 8.1% Tennessee 11.8% Arkansas 6.5% Louisiana 0% 5% 10% 15% Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute
Commercial Lines DWP Growth: MS vs. U.S., 2005-2014 16.3% 20% Average 2005-2014 US: 1.4% MS: 2.8% 15% 10% 6.1% 5.8% 5.3% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 4.6% 4.3% 3.6% 3.3% 2.6% 5% -0.1% -0.1% 0% -2.5% -3.7% -5% -3.8% -4.0% -4.0% -7.3% -10% 05 06 07 08 09 10 MS DWP: Comm. 11 12 13 14 US DWP: Comm. Lines Source: SNL Financial. 29
Personal Lines DWP Growth: MS vs. U.S., 2005-2014 Average 2005-2014 US: 2.6% MS: 3.2% 8% 6.8% 7% 5.2% 6% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.2% 4.3% 5% 3.2% 4% 2.9% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 2% 1.1% 1% 0.0% 0% -0.1% -1% 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 US DWP: HO Lines MS DWP: HO Lines Source: SNL Financial. 30
Homeowners MP DWP Growth: MS vs. U.S., 2005-2014 Average 2005-2014 US: 4.7% MS: 5.5% 20% 15.4% 15% 10.2% 8.7% 8.4% 8.4% 7.6% 10% 7.1% 6.3% 6.3% 5.8% 5.1% 4.1% 3.6% 3.5% 2.9% 5% 2.5% 0.4% 0% -0.3% -1.9% -2.8% -5% 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 US DWP: HO Lines MS DWP: HO Lines Source: SNL Financial. 31
Private Passenger Auto Growth: MS vs. U.S., 2005-2014 Average 2005-2014 US: 1.6% MS: 2.1% 9% 7.1% 7% 5.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 3.5% 3.9% 5% 1.8% 3% 1.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1% -1% -0.1% -0.3% -1.4% -1.9% -3% -5% 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 US DWP: HO Lines MS DWP: HO Lines Source: SNL Financial. 32
Competition 33
Brief Background on the HH Index It is the sum of the square of the market shares of sellers It is commonly used by the Justice Department to help determine whether a merger will harm the competitive environment 34
Examples for the HH Index First, assume a market with 5 sellers, each of which has a 20% market share Each seller would have a score of 400, and the HH Index would be 2000 Next, assume a market with 10 sellers, each of which has a 10% market share Each seller would have a score of 100, and the HH Index would be 1000 Now assume a market with 20 sellers, each of which has a 5% market share Each seller would have a score of 25, and the HH Index would be 500 35
LOB Competition in MS in 2014, as Indicated by the HH Index Line of Business PP Auto HO Workers Comp Commercial Number of Companies 57 48 99 HH Index 1162.5 1317.8 510.3 290 247.8 Sources: NAIC, via SNL Financial; Insurance Information Institute 36
HH Index for PP Auto in Mississippi, 2014 Rank of Insurers writing PP Auto in MS Top 5 6-10 11-15 42 others Total (57) Market Share HH Index 63.5% 20.8% 7.6% 8.1% 100.0% 1053.9 91.9 12.1 4.7 1162.5 37
Personal Lines Exposure Growth Analysis 38 38
Auto/Light Truck Sales Will Likely Continue at Recent Levels (Millions of Units) We re back to new vehicle sales levels last seen pre-recession 19 17.8 17.5 17.6 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.1 17.2 17.1 16.9 16.9 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.1 17 15.5 14.4 15 13.2 12.7 13 11.6 10.4 11 9 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16F17F18F19F Yearly car/light truck sales will likely continue at current levels, in part replacing cars that were held onto in 2008-12. But rising interest rates could eventually restrain demand for new vehicles. Sources: US Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators, 3/16 issue (forecasts); Insurance Information Institute. 40
America is Driving More Again: Total Miles Driven*, 1996 2016 Billions 3,200 driven rose virtually every month, even through recessions. From 1996 (and well before), miles New miles driven records in 2015 3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,700 From November 2007 until January 2015, miles driven was below the prior peak for 87 straight months over 7 years! Previous record was in the early 1980s (39 months). 2,600 2,500 2,400 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 *Moving 12-month total. The data are through January 2016, the latest available. Note: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns. Sources: Federal Highway Administration (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_monitoring/tvt.cfm ); National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute. 41
More People Working and Driving => More Collisions, 2006 2015 Overall Collision Claims Per 100 Insured Vehicles Number Employed, Millions 150 Number Employed (left scale) Collision Claim Frequency (right scale) 6.0 Recession 148 5.9 146 5.8 144 5.7 142 5.6 140 138 5.5 06:Q1 When people are out of work, they drive less. When they get jobs, they drive to work, helping drive claim frequency higher. 06:Q3 07:Q1 07:Q3 08:Q1 08:Q3 09:Q1 09:Q3 10:Q1 10:Q3 11:Q1 11:Q3 12:Q1 12:Q3 13:Q1 13:Q3 14:Q1 14:Q3 15:Q1 15:Q3 Sources: Seasonally Adjusted Employed from Bureau of Labor Statistics; Rolling Four-Qtr Avg. Frequency from Insurance Services Office; Insurance Institute for Highway Safety; Insurance Information Institute. 42
Growth of Homeowners/Renters Exposures 43
Forecast: Continued Growth in Private Housing Unit Starts, 1995-2019F Rising mortgage rates could dampen the demand for new residential construction (Millions of Units) 2.1 2.07 1.96 1.85 1.80 1.9 1.71 1.64 1.62 1.60 1.57 1.7 1.48 1.47 1.46 1.43 1.35 1.36 1.35 1.5 1.23 1.3 1.11 1.00 1.1 0.92 0.91 0.78 0.9 Housing unit starts plunged 72% from 2005- 2009, down 1.49 million, to lowest level since records began in 1959 0.61 0.59 0.55 0.7 0.5 0.3 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15F 16F 17F 18F 19F Housing starts are climbing slowly. Recently, the fastest growth is in multi- unit residences. Personal lines exposure will grow, and commercial insurers with Workers Comp, Construction risk exposure and Surety also benefit. Sources: US Department of Commerce (history); Blue Chip Economic Indicators (3/2016), forecasts; Insurance Information Institute. 44
Giant Age Cohort (Millenials) Is Approaching Home-Buying Stage 45
Growth in Number of Households => Increased Demand for Housing 46
Number of Owner-Occupied & Renter-Occupied Housing Units, US, Quarterly, 1990:Q1-2015:Q4 Millions of Renter- Occupied Housing Units Millions of Owner- Occupied Housing Units Number of renter-occupied housing units Number of owner-occupied housing units 44 80 Number of owner-occupied units has been stuck at roughly 75 million units since 2005:Q4 42 75 40 70 38 Trough in 2004:Q2 at 32.61 million units. 65 36 Latest renter-occupied was 42.58 million units in 2015:Q4. 60 34 32 55 90:Q1 91:Q2 92:Q3 93:Q4 95:Q1 96:Q2 97:Q3 98:Q4 00:Q1 01:Q2 02:Q3 03:Q4 05:Q1 06:Q2 07:Q3 08:Q4 10:Q1 11:Q2 12:Q3 13:Q4 15:Q1 Since 2004 the number of renter-occupied housing units has grown by over 10 million units (+31.5%), but there has been no growth in the number of owner- occupied housing units in nearly 10 years. When will this end? Sources: US Census Bureau at http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html , Table 8; Insurance Information Institute. 47 47
I.I.I. Poll: Renters Insurance Percentage of Renters Who Have Renters Insurance, 2011-2015 50% 42% 40% 38% 37% 40% 35% 31% 29% 30% 20% 10% May 2011 May 2012 May 2013 May 2014 November 2014 May 2015 November 2015 Percentage Of Renters With Renters Insurance Continues to Increase. Source: Insurance Information Institute Annual Pulse Survey. 48
Catastrophes & U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses 49 49
Tornadoes, Hail, and Wind Events in Mississippi, 2015 Sources: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/states.php?month=00&year=2000&state=MS ; Insurance Information Institute. 50
Number of Tornadoes in Mississippi, Yearly, 2000-2015 Avg., 2000-2007: 49.0 Avg., 2008-2015: 85.8 175 162 150 125 109 105 100 91 100 75 75 63 60 54 51 50 50 36 33 33 29 27 25 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Is the number of tornadoes that strike Mississippi each year increasing? Based on the last 16 years and especially the last 8 it certainly seems so. Sources: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/states.php?month=00&year=2000&state=MS ; Insurance Information Institute. 51
Number of High Wind Events in Mississippi, Yearly, 2000-2015 Avg., 2000-2007: 450 Avg., 2008-2015: 528 900 826 750 612 551 600 514 510 485 463 450 409 410 403 406 400 353 286 300 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Is the number of high wind events that strike Mississippi each year increasing? Based on the last 16 years, it certainly doesn t seem so. Sources: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/states.php?month=00&year=2000&state=MS ; Insurance Information Institute. 52
P/C Industry Homeowners Claim Frequency, Mississippi, 1997-2013 Claims Paid per 100 Exposures CAT-related claims Non-CAT-related claims 60 54.89 50 40 30 20 17.19 10 10.41 9.28 8.91 8.567.708.457.41 8.45 6.144.94 4.76 4.86 4.535.67 5.70 6.04 6.15 5.434.92 3.95 4.04 3.452.36 1.53 1.992.91 2.20 1.56 1.44 1.49 0.96 0 0.58 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sources: Insurance Research Council, Trends in Homeowners Insurance Claims, p.72; Insurance Information Institute
P/C Industry HO Average Claim Severity, Mississippi, 1997-2013 non-cat claims cat claims Current dollars $90,000 $83,962 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $3,742$3,966$4,497$4,869$5,388$5,850$6,519$6,757$8,195$8,143$8,475$8,554$9,085$9,288$9,204$9,003$10,152 $8,909 $10,000 $15,753 $12,172$12,627$10,486$8,078 $4,732$6,888 $3,915$3,786$6,153$3,734$6,313$4,991$5,811$3,846 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 $0 Sources: Insurance Research Council, Trends in Homeowners Insurance Claims, 2015 edition, p. 72; BLS inflation calculator, with Insurance Information Institute calculations
P/C Industry HO Average Claim Severity, Inflation-adjusted, Mississippi, 1997-2013 non-cat claims cat claims Constant dollars Non-CAT inflation- adjusted claim severity tripled in the 17 years 1997-2013 $16,000 $15,753 $14,000 $12,000 $12,172$12,627 $10,152 $10,000 $9,085$9,288$9,204$9,003 $10,486 $8,195$8,143$8,475$8,554 $8,909 $8,000 $6,519$6,757 $8,078 $4,497$4,869$5,388$5,850 $6,153 $6,000 $6,888 $6,313 $5,811 $3,742$3,966 $4,991 $4,000 $4,732 $3,915$3,786 $3,846 $3,734 $2,000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 $0 Sources: Insurance Research Council, Trends in Homeowners Insurance Claims, 2015 edition, p. 72; BLS inflation calculator, with Insurance Information Institute calculations