TAWA Treasury Microsimulation Model of NZ Tax System

"The TAWA Treasury microsimulation model is a crucial tool used for estimating costs and impacts of tax and welfare policies in New Zealand. This model aids in understanding income distribution and poverty projections, helping various government agencies and academic collaborations make informed decisions. Led by Michael Eglinton, the model analyses taxable income data, projects future trends, and evaluates the impact of policy reforms on different levels of society. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this model are solely those of the author and do not represent official policy advice."

• Tax policy
• Income distribution
• Welfare analysis
• Government modeling
• New Zealand

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Presentation Transcript

1. TAWA Treasury s microsimulation model of the New Zealand personal tax and transfer system Michael Eglinton Analytics and Insights Team 20/1/21

2. The TAWA (Tax and Welfare Analysis) Model Static microsimulation model of the New Zealand Tax and Transfer System Used by Government agencies, Tax Working Group, Welfare Expert Advisory Group, and in academic collaborations Used for: Estimating costs and distributional impacts of potential personal tax and welfare policies Understanding the distribution of household incomes, net worth, and expenditure Child poverty projections

3. Input Data: Taxable income from IR Core benefit indicator from MSD Household Economic Survey Projections: Project up to 5 years ahead using demographic, benefit, and economic forecasts from: Scale so that representative of NZ population TAWA Modelling: Reform Current legislation Analysis: Aggregate impacts of changes to income at national, household, family and individual levels. 3

4. Thanks! Michael.Eglinton@treasury.govt.nz The views, opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the author(s) and do not represent policy advice. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury or the New Zealand Government. The New Zealand Treasury and the New Zealand Government take no responsibility for any errors or omissions in, or for the correctness of, the information contained this presentation.