Recent Trends in Mortality and Life Expectancy in the United States
Recent studies highlight a concerning trend of stalling and declining life expectancy in the United States, particularly attributed to an increase in mortality among middle-aged and younger adults. The research focuses on understanding the impact of post-2010 mortality trends on different age groups and their contribution to life expectancy, excess deaths, and years of life lost. Data analysis from U.S. death certificates between 2000-2019 is utilized to investigate these trends.
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The Double Jeopardy of Recent Mortality Trends in the United States 1
Acknowledgements Authors: Leah R. Abrams (Tufts) Mikko Myrskyl (MPIDR) Funding: P30AG024832 (UTMB Pepper Center) R01AG075208 (Mehta) R24AG045061 (Abrams) Views expressed today do not necessarily reflect the positions of any funding body or institution. We have no conflicts of interest. 2
Annual Increase in e0 (years) 2 Months L.E. per Calendar Year! 0.25 0.20 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.00 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 4
Annual Increase in e0 (years) 2 Months L.E. per Calendar Year! 0.25 0.20 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.00 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 5
Annual Increase in e0 (years) 2 Months L.E. per Calendar Year! 0.25 0.20 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.00 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 6
Deaths of Despair Case and Deaton (2015, 2017) [T]he stalling and subsequent decline in life expectancy during the 2010s appears to have been the product of an increase in mortality among middle-age and younger adults - NASEM, 2021 7
U.S. life expectancy stalls due to cardiovascular disease, not drug deaths 8 From: Mehta, Abrams, Myrskyla (2020) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Objectives double jeopardy Measure the relative contribution of post-2010 trends in younger- and older-aged mortality to three population indicators: 1. Life Expectancy 2. Excess Deaths 3. Years of Life Lost 9
Methods U.S. death certificates, 2000-2019 Standard life table approaches Ages 25-49, 50-64, and 65+ Counterfactuals using 2000-2009 as the basis 10
Life expectancy 65+ 50-64 25-49 72% 20% 8% 65+ 50-64 25-49 64% 23% 12% 11 From: Abrams, Myrskyla, Mehta (2023)
Excess Deaths, 2019 12 From: Abrams, Myrskyla, Mehta (2023)
Years of Life Lost, 2019 65+ 61% 65+ 55% 13 From: Abrams, Myrskyla, Mehta (2023)
Implications Unlikely to see sustained L.E. increases in the near term Uncertainty in life expectancy projections by SSA budgetary and policy consequences Common causes with despair , but obesity and diabetes are likely at the forefront The stagnation is large its causes are likely multi-factorial 14
Current Work - Hypotheses 1. Heterogeneity (geography, SES, race/ethnicity) 3. Growth of multi-morbidity 2. Opioid epidemic 5. Survivor effects attributable to improved medical treatments 4. Plateauing declines in cigarette smoking 15
