Oil Industry Segment Update and Global Trends Analysis
"This update provides insights into the oil industry segment, focusing on global production and consumption trends, US refinery input, crude oil imports and exports, oil land rig count, and North Dakota production modal share. The data includes key statistics, such as top global crude oil producers, WTI pricing, US production levels, and transportation methods. Stay informed about the latest developments in the oil industry."
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Oil Industry Segment Update Lee K. Johnson Hess Corporation Rail Energy Transportation Advisory Committee Surface Transportation Board October 26, 2022
Global Production and Consumption Top Five Producers and WTI Pricing Top Five Global Crude Oil Producers Average MBPD 14.0 WTI Prices 12.3 11.7 12.0 11.0 10.9 Monthly Averages September 2019 $56.95 September 2020 $39.63 September 2021 $71.65 March 2022 April 2022 May 2022 June 2022 July 2022 August 2022 September 2022 $84.26 10.2 9.8 10.0 8.0 5.6 $108.50 $101.78 $109.55 $114.84 $101.62 $93.67 6.0 4.7 4.4 4.4 4.0 2.0 0.0 USA Russia Saudia Arabia Canada Iraq Source: EIA 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD 2
Total US Refinery Input and Crude Oil Production MBPD 20 17.27 18 16.28 16.27 16.19 15.92 15.78 15.49 15.39 15.24 16 14.13 13.81 13.76 13.33 14 12.91 12.82 12.57 12.06 11.70 11.57 11.46 11.29 12 11.16 11.08 10.87 10.85 10.42 10 8 7.10 7.04 6.97 6.91 6.84 6.75 6.73 6.69 6.44 6.30 6.09 6.08 6.04 6 4 2 1.43 1.07 0 3Q'19 4Q'19 1Q'20 2Q'20 3Q'20 4Q'20 1Q'21 2Q'21 3Q'21 4Q'21 1Q'22 2Q'22 3Q'22 Refinery Input Total Production TX/NM/OK Off Shore ND AK CO/UT/WY Other Source; EIA 3
US Crude Oil Imports and Exports MBPD 12.00 9.62 9.58 10.00 9.45 9.23 9.10 9.04 9.04 8.84 8.74 8.45 8.40 8.36 7.87 8.72 8.71 7.69 8.62 8.62 8.00 8.47 8.40 8.39 8.36 7.96 7.79 7.62 7.58 6.00 4.64 4.55 4.50 4.47 4.43 4.37 4.27 4.23 4.23 4.22 4.22 3.93 3.84 4.00 3.51 3.45 3.43 3.06 2.92 2.89 2.86 2.82 2.79 2.74 2.67 2.64 2.61 2.00 1.56 1.49 1.37 1.34 1.27 1.08 1.06 1.03 1.01 0.91 0.76 0.72 0.59 4Q '20 0.00 3Q '19 4Q '19 1Q '20 2Q '20 3Q '20 1Q '21 2Q '21 3Q '21 4Q '21 1Q '22 2Q '22 July '22 Exports Imports Canada Non-OPEC less Canada OPEC Source: EIA 4
Oil Land Rig Count 800 711 700 670 600 574 600 564 593 510 561 490 516 538 500 439 385 400 421 420 334 379 365 271 300 323 298 187 243 200 189 172 166 100 62 56 45 17 0 3Q'19 4Q'19 1Q'20 2Q'20 3Q'20 4Q'20 1Q'21 2Q'21 3Q'21 4Q'21 1Q'22 2Q'22 3Q'22 Total TX/NM/OK ND Other Source: Baker Hughes 5
ND Production & Modal Share MBPD 1.60 1.46 1.43 1.42 1.40 1.21 1.17 1.15 1.15 1.20 1.11 1.10 1.09 1.09 1.07 1.03 0.98 0.95 0.94 1.00 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.87 0.85 0.83 0.83 0.89 0.80 0.60 0.64 0.40 0.28 0.27 0.23 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.20 0.11 0.06 0.09 0.06 0.00 3Q'19 4Q'19 1Q'20 2Q'20 3Q'20 4Q'20 1Q'21 2Q'21 3Q'21 4Q'21 1Q'22 2Q'22 July'22 Total Pipeline Railroad Refinery Canada Source: North Dakota Pipeline Authority 6
US/Canada CBR MBPD 0.8 0.69 0.7 0.6 0.55 0.48 0.5 0.43 0.39 0.39 0.38 0.4 0.32 0.31 0.3 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.30 0.24 0.17 0.2 0.13 0.17 0.15 0.14 0.1 0.12 0.09 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD Total USA/Canada Within USA Canada to USA Source - EIA 7
Bakken CBR Destinations - % Bakken = approximately 90% of US Total 80.0% 75.0% 74.5% 70.0% 62.5% 62.2% 58.5% 60.0% 52.6% 47.1% 50.0% 37.7% 40.0% 36.7% 33.1% 39.0% 32.0% 30.0% 24.4% 24.1% 20.0% 12.6% 10.0% 4.9% 4.4% 3.4% 1.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD West East Gulf Source: EIA 8
Highlights Global crude oil production exceeded consumption during 3Q 2022; inventory build - eia US remains #1 crude oil producer; production is down 4.9% from pre-pandemic level - eia Average monthly WTI down 26.6% from June high; up 47.9% from 2019 eia US refinery input has returned to equal pre-pandemic levels - eia US production equals 74.1% of refinery input; Canada is largest import source eia Crude oil exports exceeding imports by 10.3% - eia Land rig count has recovered to 4.5% above pre-pandemic levels baker hughes ND crude oil production is down 24.6% from pre-pandemic levels eia ND CBR rail market share down to 6%; approximately one train per day - ndpa US and CAN CBR is down 63.8%, US down 66.7%, CAN to US down 60% from 2019 eia Bakken CBR represents 90% of US volume; there is some CBR growth in the Rockies eia The west coast receives 74.5% and the east coast 24.4% of Bakken CBR -eia 9