Maine Workforce and Population Trends Analysis 2014-2024

Maine Workforce & STEM
Occupations Outlook
2014 to 2024
 
Glenn Mills
Chief Economist
Center for Workforce Research
Maine Dept. of Labor
207-621-5192
 
Labor Force
Trends & Outlook
 
The number of births has declined precipitously
 
Natural population
change
the difference
between births and
deaths
has been slightly
negative since 2011, a
pattern that is expected to
continue over the next
decade. Net migration
the difference between
the number moving into
and out of the state
was
positive most years from
the 1970s to early 2000s,
but has only been just
enough to offset the
natural decline since
2007.
 
The decline in births caused an imbalance in our
population structure. Maine has a very high share of
people in their 50s and 60s headed toward retirement
and low share of kids to replace them in the labor force.
 
The large gap
between the number
of people who will
retire and the
number of young
people who will
enter the workforce
will put significant
downward pressure
on the size labor
force over the next
two decades.
 
The total population has been nearly unchanged since
2008 due to the combination of no natural increase
and very little net migration
 
From the 1970s to early
2000s, the combination
of natural increase and
positive net migration
the difference between
those moving into and
out of the state
–caused
consistent population
growth. 
Since 2007, net
migration has been just
enough to offset the
small natural decline. If
net migration does not
pick up, the total
population is likely to
gradually decline.
 
The senior population is expected to rise sharply as the
number of prime-age workers declines nearly as much
 
Changes in the size
of the labor force
are driven not only
by changes in the
size of the
population, but also
its composition. A
rising share of the
population is
advancing beyond
their peak years of
labor force
attachment.
 
The senior population is expected to rise sharply as the
number of prime-age workers declines nearly as much
 
Changes in the size
of the labor force
are driven not only
by changes in the
size of the
population, but also
its composition.
Labor force
participation rates
are expected to rise
in all age groups,
but the total
participation rate
will decline because
a rising share of
population is
advancing to
retirement.
 
The labor force is expected to decline through 2024
as a result of these population trends
Rapid labor force
growth from the mid
1960s through 1980s
was driven by
thousands of baby
boomers going to
work. Over the next
two decades more
baby boomers are
expected to leave the
labor force than the
number of young
people who will
begin working,
causing the size of
the labor force to
decline.
 
Industry Job
Trends & Outlook
 
Employment has long been shifting from businesses
that produce goods to those that provide services
 
Three-quarters of jobs are in healthcare, government,
retail, professional services, hospitality, or manufacturing
With 101,100 jobs,
healthcare and social
assistance was the
largest sector in Maine
in 2014. Government
(federal, state, and
local, including public
schools, community
college, and university
systems) was second
with 95,500 jobs.
Retail trade (81,700
jobs), professional and
business services
(63,500), leisure and
hospitality (63,200),
and manufacturing
(50,200) were the next
largest.
 
Job gains are expected to be substantial in three sectors,
with large losses in two, and little change in others
The shifting age
structure of the
population is a
primary factor
driving job gains in
healthcare and
losses in
government, mostly
in public education.
Professional
services and
hospitality are
expected to
continue to add
jobs and the long-
term downward job
trend in
manufacturing and
information is also
expected to persist.
 
Occupational Job
Trends & Outlook
 
The occupational structure of employment
has shifted away from blue-collar jobs
 
STEM Occupations Job
Trends & Outlook
 
Two approaches to defining STEM
 
By academic course of study or degree
By occupation of work
 
Some who have an academic background in a
STEM field do not work in an associated field
Some working in a STEM occupation do not
have an academic background in that discipline
 
We use the occupation of work approach to
look at the number of jobs and the outlook for
growth
 
STEM occupations
 
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
designates 184 occupations as STEM
The O*Net Consortium designates 167
occupations as STEM
We use a combined list, totaling 197
occupations
 
Jobs in STEM occupations are expected to
increase by about 5,400 to 115,900 in 2024
Of 197 STEM
occupations, jobs in
120 are expected
increase at a faster
rate than the
average, but jobs in
77 occupations are
projected to
increase at or below
the average or lose
jobs.
 
In contrast, the number of jobs in non-STEM
occupations is not expected to change much
 
And the share of jobs in STEM occupations is only
expected to rise slightly (from 16.7% to 17.4% of all jobs)
 
Growth is the source of only 12% of job openings. Most
openings are to replace those who leave the labor force.
About 17% of openings are expected in STEM occupations.
In STEM
occupations,
about 22% of
openings will be
due to growth; in
non-STEM
occupations, just
9% of openings
will be due to
growth.
 
STEM jobs are found in 15 of 22 broad occupational groups.
The largest share are healthcare practitioners & technicians.
 
39% of STEM jobs are in health practitioner/technician,
12% in management, 10% in computer/mathematics,
9% in business/finance, and 9% in
architecture/engineering occupations
STEM
occupations
are not a
homogeneous
group;
education and
skill
requirements,
wage levels,
and job
outlook differ
greatly
 
There is a wide range of education requirements
among STEM occupations, though 75% require
an associate’s degree or higher
 
About half of jobs in STEM occupations require a
Bachelor’s degree, 15% require an advanced degree,
and nearly 1/3 do not require a degree
 
The average hourly wage of jobs in STEM occupations is
84% higher than for jobs in non-STEM occupations…
The average is
skewed by high
wages of Physicians
and other health
practitioners, which
comprise the 10
highest paying
STEM occupations.
Average wages for
28 STEM
occupations are
below the average
for all occupations.
 
The highest average wages are in healthcare occupations
 
Within occupational groups, average wages are similar
for STEM and non-STEM jobs…with some exceptions
 
STEM jobs offer higher average wages no matter what the
education requirement for the occupation. Differentials
generally are larger at higher levels of required education
 
Not all occupations expected to increase rapidly
will have many openings
(20 STEM occupations with fastest rate of growth)
 
Not all occupations with large numbers
of expected openings are growing
(20 STEM occupations with largest number of openings)
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Maine's workforce and population outlook from 2014 to 2024 reveals a decline in births, resulting in an aging population and workforce imbalance. The state faces challenges due to low birth rates, negative natural population change, and minimal net migration, impacting labor force growth and total population stability. The projection suggests a rise in the senior population and a decline in prime-age workers, potentially affecting economic dynamics in the coming decade.


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  1. Maine Workforce & STEM Occupations Outlook 2014 to 2024 Glenn Mills Chief Economist Center for Workforce Research Maine Dept. of Labor www.maine.gov/labor/cwri 207-621-5192

  2. Labor Force Trends & Outlook

  3. The number of births has declined precipitously 24,000 Natural population change the difference between births and deaths has been slightly negative since 2011, a pattern that is expected to continue over the next decade. Net migration the difference between the number moving into and out of the state was positive most years from the 1970s to early 2000s, but has only been just enough to offset the natural decline since 2007. Births Deaths Births and Deaths per Year 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 1950 1960 1965 1970 1975 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1955 1980

  4. The decline in births caused an imbalance in our population structure. Maine has a very high share of people in their 50s and 60s headed toward retirement and low share of kids to replace them in the labor force. 2% Percent of Population by Age, 2014 The large gap between the number of people who will retire and the number of young people who will enter the workforce will put significant downward pressure on the size labor force over the next two decades. 1% U.S. Maine 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

  5. The total population has been nearly unchanged since 2008 due to the combination of no natural increase and very little net migration 1,400,000 From the 1970s to early 2000s, the combination of natural increase and positive net migration the difference between those moving into and out of the state caused consistent population growth. Since 2007, net migration has been just enough to offset the small natural decline. If net migration does not pick up, the total population is likely to gradually decline. 1,300,000 Population 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 900,000 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

  6. The senior population is expected to rise sharply as the number of prime-age workers declines nearly as much 75,000 Projected Population Change, 2014 to 2024 Changes in the size of the labor force are driven not only by changes in the size of the population, but also its composition. A rising share of the population is advancing beyond their peak years of labor force attachment. 50,000 25,000 0 -25,000 -50,000 16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

  7. The senior population is expected to rise sharply as the number of prime-age workers declines nearly as much 90% Changes in the size of the labor force are driven not only by changes in the size of the population, but also its composition. Labor force participation rates are expected to rise in all age groups, but the total participation rate will decline because a rising share of population is advancing to retirement. 75,000 Projected Population Change, 2014 to 2024 80% Labor Force Participation Rates 50,000 70% 60% 25,000 50% 0 40% Change -25,000 2014 Participation Rate 30% 2024 Participation Rate -50,000 20% 16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

  8. The labor force is expected to decline through 2024 as a result of these population trends 24% Rapid labor force growth from the mid 1960s through 1980s was driven by thousands of baby boomers going to work. Over the next two decades more baby boomers are expected to leave the labor force than the number of young people who will begin working, causing the size of the labor force to decline. Change in Civilian Labor Force by Decade 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% 1954-64 1964-74 1974-84 1984-94 1994-04 2004-14 2014-24

  9. Industry Job Trends & Outlook

  10. Employment has long been shifting from businesses that produce goods to those that provide services Goods-Producing Service-Providing 56% 44% 32% 68% 18% 1950 13% 82% 1975 87% 2000 2024, projected

  11. Three-quarters of jobs are in healthcare, government, retail, professional services, hospitality, or manufacturing With 101,100 jobs, healthcare and social assistance was the largest sector in Maine in 2014. Government (federal, state, and local, including public schools, community college, and university systems) was second with 95,500 jobs. Retail trade (81,700 jobs), professional and business services (63,500), leisure and hospitality (63,200), and manufacturing (50,200) were the next largest. Leisure & Hospitality 11% Manufacturing 9% Professional & Business Svcs. 11% Financial Activities 5% Construction 4% All Other 23% Wholesale Trade 3% Other Services 3% Transport & Utilities 3% Education 2% Information 1% Natural Resources 1% Retail Trade 14% Government 16% Healthcare & Soc. Assistance 17%

  12. Job gains are expected to be substantial in three sectors, with large losses in two, and little change in others The shifting age structure of the population is a primary factor driving job gains in healthcare and losses in government, mostly in public education. Professional services and hospitality are expected to continue to add jobs and the long- term downward job trend in manufacturing and information is also expected to persist. 10,000 Projected Job Change by Sector 7,500 5,000 2014 to 2024 2,500 0 -2,500 -5,000 -7,500 Other Services Utilities Financial Activities Educational Svcs Construction Information Manufacturing Retail Trade Professional/Business Svcs Wholesale Trade Government Leisure & Hospitality Natural Resources & Mining Health Care/Social Assistance Transportation & Warehousing

  13. Occupational Job Trends & Outlook

  14. The occupational structure of employment has shifted away from blue-collar jobs 1950 2014 Blue collar Mgmt, pro/tech Office, sales, service

  15. STEM Occupations Job Trends & Outlook

  16. Two approaches to defining STEM By academic course of study or degree By occupation of work Some who have an academic background in a STEM field do not work in an associated field Some working in a STEM occupation do not have an academic background in that discipline We use the occupation of work approach to look at the number of jobs and the outlook for growth

  17. STEM occupations The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics designates 184 occupations as STEM The O*Net Consortium designates 167 occupations as STEM We use a combined list, totaling 197 occupations

  18. Jobs in STEM occupations are expected to increase by about 5,400 to 115,900 in 2024 120,000 Of 197 STEM occupations, jobs in 120 are expected increase at a faster rate than the average, but jobs in 77 occupations are projected to increase at or below the average or lose jobs. 100,000 Jobs 80,000 60,000 40,000 2014 2024

  19. In contrast, the number of jobs in non-STEM occupations is not expected to change much 6,000 Projected Job Change, 2014 to 2024 4,000 2,000 0 STEM Occupations Non-STEM Occupations -2,000

  20. And the share of jobs in STEM occupations is only expected to rise slightly (from 16.7% to 17.4% of all jobs) STEM Occupations Non-STEM Occupations 600,000 500,000 400,000 Jobs 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2014 2024

  21. Growth is the source of only 12% of job openings. Most openings are to replace those who leave the labor force. About 17% of openings are expected in STEM occupations. STEM Non-STEM In STEM occupations, about 22% of openings will be due to growth; in non-STEM occupations, just 9% of openings will be due to growth.

  22. STEM jobs are found in 15 of 22 broad occupational groups. The largest share are healthcare practitioners & technicians. 100,000 Jobs by Occupational Group in 2014 STEM Jobs All Jobs 75,000 50,000 25,000 0

  23. 39% of STEM jobs are in health practitioner/technician, 12% in management, 10% in computer/mathematics, 9% in business/finance, and 9% in architecture/engineering occupations Jobs by Occupational Group in 2014 40,000 STEM occupations are not a homogeneous group; education and skill requirements, wage levels, and job outlook differ greatly 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Healthcare Installation, Maintenance & Management Legal Production Healthcare Support Personal Care & Service Construction & Extraction Community & Social Service Farming, Fishing & Forestry Sales Related Protective Services Office/Admin Support Food Preperation/Serving Transportation/Material Moving Arts/Design/Entertainment/Media Building/Grounds Maintenance Life/Physical/Social Science Education, Training & Library Business & Financial Operations Computer & Mathematical Architecture & Engineering

  24. There is a wide range of education requirements among STEM occupations, though 75% require an associate s degree or higher 250,000 Jobs by Education Requirement in 2014 STEM jobs 200,000 All Jobs 150,000 100,000 50,000 0

  25. About half of jobs in STEM occupations require a Bachelor s degree, 15% require an advanced degree, and nearly 1/3 do not require a degree 50,000 Jobs by Education Requirement in 2014 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

  26. The average hourly wage of jobs in STEM occupations is 84% higher than for jobs in non-STEM occupations The average is skewed by high wages of Physicians and other health practitioners, which comprise the 10 highest paying STEM occupations. Average wages for 28 STEM occupations are below the average for all occupations. $30 Average Hourly Wage in 2015 $20 $10 $- STEM Jobs Non-STEM Jobs

  27. The highest average wages are in healthcare occupations $40 $30 Average Hourly Wage in 2015 $20 $10 $- Healthcare Practitioner/Technition All Other STEM Jobs

  28. Within occupational groups, average wages are similar for STEM and non-STEM jobs with some exceptions STEM Jobs Non-STEM Jobs Average Hourly Wage in 2015 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0

  29. STEM jobs offer higher average wages no matter what the education requirement for the occupation. Differentials generally are larger at higher levels of required education $75 Average Hourly Wage in 2015 STEM Jobs Non-STEM jobs $60 $45 $30 $15 $-

  30. Not all occupations expected to increase rapidly will have many openings (20 STEM occupations with fastest rate of growth) Jobs Projected Change Average Annual Openings 2015 Average Wage* Occupation Typical Education Replace- ment 2014 2024 Net Percent Growth Total Biomedical Engineers 127 198 71 55.9% 7 3 10 $40.92 Bachelor's degree Statisticians 74 95 21 28.4% 2 1 3 Master's degree $40.60 Operations Research Analysts 245 307 62 25.3% 6 4 10 $33.59 Bachelor's degree Nurse Practitioners 1,175 1,468 293 24.9% 29 28 57 $46.44 Master's degree Cartographers and Photogrammetrists 74 90 16 21.6% 2 2 4 $26.69 Bachelor's degree Forensic Science Technicians 46 55 9 19.6% 1 2 3 $21.17 Bachelor's degree Physician Assistants 949 1,131 182 19.2% 18 21 39 $49.30 Master's degree Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians 220 261 41 18.6% 4 4 8 $27.66 Associate's degree Atmospheric and Space Scientists 71 84 13 18.3% 1 1 2 Bachelor's degree $43.37 Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 246 291 45 18.3% 4 5 9 $37.05 Associate's degree Biochemists and Biophysicists 104 123 19 18.3% 2 3 5 $33.73 Doctoral or professional degree Orthotists and Prosthetists 41 48 7 17.1% 1 0 1 $28.88 Master's degree Web Developers 548 641 93 17.0% 9 7 16 $26.09 Associate's degree Physical Therapists 1,332 1,555 223 16.7% 22 36 58 $36.51 Doctoral or professional degree Software Developers, Applications 1,498 1,737 239 16.0% 24 21 45 $41.51 Bachelor's degree Computer Systems Analysts 1,615 1,870 255 15.8% 26 21 47 $37.57 Bachelor's degree Software Developers, Systems Software 366 422 56 15.3% 6 5 11 $47.57 Bachelor's degree Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists 405 465 60 14.8% 6 9 15 $41.43 Doctoral or professional degree Occupational Therapists 963 1,100 137 14.2% 14 19 33 $31.25 Master's degree Veterinary Technologists and Technicians 715 812 97 13.6% 10 7 17 $16.05 Associate's degree

  31. Not all occupations with large numbers of expected openings are growing (20 STEM occupations with largest number of openings) Jobs Projected Change Average Annual Openings 2015 Average Wage* Occupation Typical Education Replace- ment 2014 2024 Net Percent Growth Total Registered Nurses 14,617 16,219 1,602 11.0% 160 345 505 $30.92 Bachelor's degree Accountants and Auditors 4,809 5,120 311 6.5% 31 128 159 $28.94 Bachelor's degree 3,952 4,150 198 5.0% 20 117 137 $15.48 High school diploma or equivalent First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics 4,283 4,209 -74 -1.7% 0 115 115 $18.00 Postsecondary non-degree award Physicians and Surgeons, All Other 2,583 2,805 222 8.6% 22 70 92 $101.33 Doctoral or professional degree Medical and Health Services Managers 1,885 2,051 166 8.8% 17 48 65 $45.99 Bachelor's degree Physical Therapists 1,332 1,555 223 16.7% 22 36 58 $36.51 Doctoral or professional degree Nurse Practitioners 1,175 1,468 293 24.9% 29 28 57 $46.44 Master's degree Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers 3,159 3,003 -156 -4.9% 0 54 54 $26.37 High school diploma or equivalent Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria 1,751 1,797 46 2.6% 5 46 51 $13.16 No formal educational credential Managers, All Other 2,324 2,301 -23 -1.0% 0 51 51 Bachelor's degree $45.90 Logging Equipment Operators 2,059 1,964 -95 -4.6% 0 49 49 $17.70 High school diploma or equivalent Computer Systems Analysts 1,615 1,870 255 15.8% 26 21 47 $37.57 Bachelor's degree Construction Managers 3,309 3,238 -71 -2.2% 0 46 46 $39.74 Bachelor's degree Software Developers, Applications 1,498 1,737 239 16.0% 24 21 45 $41.51 Bachelor's degree Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 1,340 1,403 63 4.7% 6 38 44 $20.39 Postsecondary non-degree award Business Operations Specialists, All Other 2,759 2,862 103 3.7% 10 33 43 $29.47 Bachelor's degree Physician Assistants 949 1,131 182 19.2% 18 21 39 $49.30 Master's degree Computer User Support Specialists 1,951 2,089 138 7.1% 14 25 39 $21.65 Some college, no degree Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics 1,725 1,839 114 6.6% 11 28 39 $15.91 Postsecondary non-degree award

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