Likely New Members of the 117th Congress - Election 2020 Predictions

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Predicting election outcomes is complex. Solid races are those where one candidate has a clear advantage due to various factors. Meet likely new members of the 117th Congress, including Jerry Carl in Alabama's 1st district, Barry Moore in Alabama's 2nd district, and Jay Obernolte in California's 8th district. Learn about their backgrounds, politics, and key endorsements.

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Election 2020

Likely New Members of the 117th Congress

Predicting election outcomes can be a fraught business. You don t have to look further than the 2016 presidential race to see that. But for some races, one candidate has such an advantage -- due to the constituency s partisan lean, candidate quality, or other factors -- that their path to office is nearly assured. Those are the races rated as Solid by Inside Elections. Here are the likely new members of the 117th Congress:

Alabamas 1St Jerry Carl, R District: Alabama s 1st (Greater Mobile) Current Member: Bradley Byrne, R, ran for Senate Previous elected office: Mobile County Commissioner (2012- present)/Alabama State Senator (2013-18) Age: 61 Profession: Businessman His politics: During the primary, Carl emphasized his pro-life and pro-gun positions, and supports nationwide concealed carry reciprocity. Carl ran with Byrne s endorsement as a Trump conservative, and tarred his GOP opponent Bill Hightower as a Never Trumper. Locally, Carl has pledged to secure funding for the long-languishing I-10 bridge expansion project to connect Mobile and Baldwin Counties on the Gulf Coast. Image credit: Ballotpedia

Alabamas 2nd Barry Moore, R District: Alabama s 2nd (Southeastern Alabama) Current Member: Martha Roby, R, not seeking re-election Previous elected office: Alabama State House (2010-18) Age: 53 Profession: Businessman His politics: Moore ran on a platform of expanding gun rights and universal concealed carry reciprocity, building the wall, and on his claim that he was the first elected official in Alabama to endorse Trump during the 2016 GOP Image credit: Ballotpedia primary. Moore was the preferred candidate of the conservative Club for Growth, the House Freedom Caucus, and the NRA.

Californias 8th Jay Obernolte, R District: California s 8th (Northern San Bernardino County and the High Desert) Current Member: Paul Cook, R, not seeking re-election Previous elected office: Member, California State Assembly (2014-present); Mayor, Big Bear City (2010-2014) Age: 49 Profession: Video game developer, businessman His politics: In addition to endorsements from Trump and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Obernolte is endorsed by the anti-tax Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association and the activist California Republican Assembly. During his time in the California legislature, Obernolte has a 100 percent rating and endorsement from the California Pro-Life Council and an A rating from the NRA. Image credit: Ballotpedia

Georgias 5th Nikema Williams, D District: Georgia s 5th District (Downtown Atlanta) Current Member: Vacant due to the death of John Lewis, D Previous elected office: Member, Georgia State Senate (2017-present) Age: 41 Profession: Political activist Her politics: Williams represents a younger generation of establishment Black political leaders. Williams has spent her life in political advocacy, first as a vice president for Planned Parenthood Southeast and later as deputy political director for the National Domestic Workers Alliance. While pitching herself as a replacement nominee, Williams highlighted her 2018 arrest at a protest in Atlanta over the results of that year s gubernatorial election, saying it showed how she aligned with Lewis mantra of getting into good trouble. Image credit: Ballotpedia

Illinois 3rd Marie Newman, D District: Illinois 3rd District (Southwestern Chicago area) Current Member: Dan Lipinski, D, defeated in primary Previous elected office: None; 2018 3rd District candidate Age: 56 Profession: Anti-bullying advocate; consultant Her politics: Newman s candidacy was a cause celebre for progressives nationwide, especially in contrast to Lipinski s pro-life, anti-Obamacare politics. She was endorsed by Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, Reps. Pramila Jayapal, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ro Khanna, and Ayanna Pressley, as well as EMILY s List, Planned Parenthood Action, the Sierra Club, Justice Democrats, and a battery of other liberal organizations. Image credit: Ballotpedia

Illinois 15th Mary Miller, R District: Illinois 15th District (East-central and southeastern Illinois) Current Member: John Shimkus, R, not seeking re-election Previous elected office: None Age: 60 Profession: Grain and livestock farmer; homeschool teacher Her politics: Miller secured endorsements from Rep. Jim Jordan and Sen. Ted Cruz in the primary. She was also backed by the House Freedom Caucus PAC and is expected to join that group in Washington. Miller stresses her Christianity, promises to put an end to godless socialism and defend the unborn, and supports the border wall. Image credit: Ballotpedia

Indianas 1st Frank J. Mrvan, D District: Indiana s 1st (Northwestern Indiana) Current Member: Peter Visclosky, D, not running for re-election Previous elected office: Trustee, North Township, Ind. Age: 51 Profession: Pharmaceutical sales representative, mortgage broker His politics: In the primary, Mrvan touted his endorsements from organized labor, including nods from the Indiana chapter of the American Federation of Teachers and the United Steelworkers, and received a zero percent rating from the NRA. His campaign emphasized his work on local issues, particularly emergency preparedness, and his issue stances fall well into the mainstream Democratic lines on the economy and healthcare. Image credit: Ballotpedia

Iowas 4th Randy Feenstra, R District: Iowa s 4th (Northwestern Iowa) Current Member: Steve King, R, defeated in primary Previous elected office: State Senator (2009-present) Age: 51 Profession: Insurance manager His politics: Feenstra was supported by the US Chamber for Commerce and the National Right to Life. From his time in the state Senate, he has an 83 percent lifetime score from the American Image credit: Ballotpedia Conservative Union. His website highlights his support for tax cuts, Christian values, Trump s border wall, and the 2nd Amendment.

Oregons 2nd Cliff Bentz, R District: Oregon s 2nd District (East of the Cascades and part of southern Oregon) Current Member: Greg Walden, R, not seeking re-election Previous elected office: State Senator (former, 2018-2020); state representative (former, 2008-2018) Age: 68 Profession: Attorney His politics: Bentz was viewed as the mainstream candidate in the GOP primary, receiving backing from the Republican Main Street Partnership. Bentz has an A+ rating from the NRA, a 100 percent rating from the Oregon Chamber of Commerce, and a 0 percent rating from the Oregon ACLU and AFL-CIO. In 2019, Bentz was among the group of GOP state legislators who fled the state to prevent Democrats from reaching the quorum they needed to pass a climate change law. Image credit: Ballotpedia

New Mexico Ben Ray Luj n, D Senate Current Member: Tom Udall, D, retiring Previous elected office: US House of Representatives (2009-present) Age: 41 His politics: Luj n, a former DCCC chair, has endorsements from almost every major Democratic player, including the Brady Campaign, End Citizens United, NARAL, Planned Parenthood, and the Sierra Club. He supports the DREAM Act, the removal of minor marijuana convictions nationwide, and Medicare for All. As assistant speaker, he is the highest-ranking co-sponsor of the Green New Deal. Image credit: Ballotpedia

New Mexicos 3rd Teresa Leger Fernandez, D District: New Mexico s 3rd District (Northern New Mexico) Current Member: Ben Ray Luj n, D, running for Senate Previous elected office: None Age: 60 Profession: Attorney Her politics: Leger Fernandez was endorsed in the primary by EMILY s List, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. She supports Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, tuition-free public college, and overturning the Citizens United Supreme Court decision. Leger Fernandez has a long career of practicing civil rights and water law, and led a lawsuit that forced Santa Fe to adopt ranked choice voting in 2017. Image credit: Ballotpedia

New Yorks 15th Ritchie Torres, D District: New York s 15th District (The Bronx) Current Member: Jos Serrano, D, retiring Previous elected office: New York City Council (2014-present) Age: 32 Profession: Housing policy advocate His politics: Torres, who will represent the poorest congressional district in the country, has spent his career focused on building up social safety nets. Torres, who was a Sanders delegate to the 2016 DNC, supports Medicare For All, but has also said he would sponsor legislation to create a public option. He is a vocal supporter of Israel, and cast aspersions on the Democratic Socialists of America. Torres described himself as a pragmatic progressive a year ago. Image credit: Ballotpedia

New Yorks 16th Jamaal Bowman, D District: New York s 16th District (Southern Westchester County and the northern Bronx) Current Member: Eliot Engel, D, defeated in primary Previous elected office: None Age: 44 Profession: Middle school principal His politics: Bowman will be one of the most progressive members of the House. Bowman ran on a platform of racial justice, the Green New Deal, Medicare for All, tuition-free public college, dismantling ICE, completely abolishing felon disenfranchisement, a massive increase in education funding, and defunding the police, which he defines as reallocating resources toward public health and investing in alternatives with people who are adequately trained to do the jobs we re asking armed police to do. Bowman, who was endorsed in the primary by The New York Times, maintains that he is right in alignment with Joe Biden on issues such as coronavirus, the economy, and racial and economic justice. Image credit: Ballotpedia

New Yorks 17th Mondaire Jones, D District: New York s 17th District (Westchester County) Current Member: Nita Lowey, D, retiring Previous elected office: None Age: 33 Profession: Attorney His politics: Jones supports tuition-free public college, Medicare for All, and the Green New Deal. He also favors DC and Puerto Rico statehood, the legalization of marijuana, and an assault weapon ban. Jones was endorsed in the primary by Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, as well as Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, and Ayanna Pressley. Image credit: Ballotpedia

North Carolinas 11th Madison Cawthorn, R District: North Carolina s 11th District (Asheville and Appalachian North Carolina) Current Member: Vacant (Last held by Mark Meadows, R) Previous elected office: None Age: 24 (will be 25 when sworn in) Profession: Motivational speaker His politics: In interviews, Cawthorn posits himself as a generational figure for Republican politics, a young millennial/Gen Z counterweight to progressive figures such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. He approves of removing statues of Confederate leaders through governmental processes, says he believes Black Lives Matter , and supports a constitutional amendment that would overturn the Citizens United Supreme Court decision. However, Cawthorn is pro- life, opposes the ACA and sanctuary cities, supports Trump s border wall, and disputes the existence of manmade climate change. Image credit: Ballotpedia

North Carolinas 2nd Deborah K. Ross, D District: North Carolina s 2nd District (Raleigh) Current Member: George Holding, R, not seeking re-election. Previous elected office: Member, North Carolina House of Representatives (2003-2013); Democratic nominee for Senate in 2016 (lost 51-46 percent) Age: 56 Profession: Civil Rights Attorney; former ACLU state director Her politics: Ross has been endorsed by the Sierra Club, EMILY s List, the Planned Parenthood Action Fund, and the AFGE and AFL-CIO unions. While in the state legislature, she had a 100 percent score from the ACLU and an F rating from the NRA. Her website cites infrastructure, healthcare, housing, education, and climate change as top priorities. Image credit: Ballotpedia

North Carolinas 6th Kathy Manning, D District: North Carolina s 6th District (Greensboro and Winston-Salem) Current Member: Mark Walker, R, not seeking re-election. Previous elected office: None; Democratic nominee for the 13th District in 2018 (lost 45.5 to 51.5) Age: 63 Profession: Attorney Her politics: In 2018, when Manning ran in the more Republican 13th District, she was endorsed by the moderate Blue Dog Coalition and NewDem Action Fund; neither have endorsed her yet this cycle, though in 2018 they only did so in October. In 2020, Manning is endorsed by the National Organization for Women and the Sierra Club. Image credit: Ballotpedia

Texas 11th August Pfluger, R District: Texas 11th District (Midland and San Angelo parts of rural west Texas) Current Member: Mike Conaway, R, not seeking re-election. Previous elected office: None Age: 42 Profession: Former National Security Council staffer in Trump administration; Air Force Lt. Col. (Ret.) His politics: While the House Freedom Caucus PAC endorsed a different candidate in the GOP primary, Pfluger has signaled willingness to join the caucus when he arrives in Washington. Pfluger promises to fight back against oil-hating liberals and protect the God-given rights in the Second Amendment, as well as the rights of Christians and other groups. Image credit: Ballotpedia

Texas 13th Ronny Jackson, R District: Texas 13th District (Texas Panhandle) Current Member: Mac Thornberry, R, not seeking re-election Previous elected office: None Profession: Physician His politics: Jackson, who was endorsed by Trump in the primary, supports the border wall, is pro-life, and promises to protect America from the socialist healthcare plans of the left. Jackson also supports term limits and has pledged to serve no more than eight years in the House. Jackson has attacked his former colleagues in the Obama White House, where he served for eight years, as deep state traitors who deserve to be brought to justice for their heinous actions. Image credit: Ballotpedia

Texas 17th Pete Sessions, R District: Texas 17th District (College Station, Waco, and a slice of Austin suburbs) Current Member: Bill Flores, R, not seeking re-election Previous elected office: US Congressman (1997-2019) Profession: Congressman His politics: While in Congress, Sessions served as the chairman of the powerful House Rules Committee and also served as chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee during the 2010 cycle, overseeing the largest GOP House gains in history. Sessions amassed a solidly conservative voting record, receiving a 94 percent lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union, an A from the NRA, and a 100 percent lifetime rating from the National Right to Life. He supports the border wall and codifying Trump s public charge immigration restriction into law. Image credit: Ballotpedia

Utahs 1st Blake Moore, R District: Utah s 1st District (Ogden and northern Utah) Current Member: Rob Bishop, R, ran for lieutenant governor (lost in primary). Previous elected office: None Age: 40 Profession: Management consultant; Foreign Service officer (former, 2012- 13) His politics: Rather than emphasize his conservative policy positions (he s pro-life, pro-Second Amendment, and wants to repeal the ACA) he talks mostly about his experience in consulting, which he says gives him the tools to bring people together in Washington. He s also highlighted his time in Asia as a Foreign Service officer as a strength when tensions with China are on the rise. Moore notably broke with the president on deploying federal forces in American cities, a position Moore opposes. Image credit: Ballotpedia