Latinos and the 2012 Elections: Trends and Insights
The data presented covers various aspects of Latino participation in the 2012 elections, including voter eligibility, registration trends, turnout rates, religious affiliations, party affiliations, and more. It highlights the importance of understanding Latino voting behaviors and demographics in the electoral process.
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Latinos and the 2012 Elections Boisi Center for Religion & American Public Life Boston College November 1, 2012 Luis Lugo, Director Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life Washington, D.C. www.pewforum.org
I Eligible Voters as a Share of Group s Population: 2012 Voting eligible Non-citizen Under 18 20.1 21.9 27.7 33.9 1.6 3.5 24 21.3 78.3 68.8 54.1 44.8 White Black Asian Hispanic 1 Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations from the March 2012 CPS
Hispanic Eligible Voter and Registered Voter Trends 23.7 21.3 19.5 No. of Eligible Voters (millions) 17.3 16.1 14.5 12.413.2 11.6 10.311.2 11 9.3 9.3 8.3 8.1 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.5 6.8 6.6 5.5 5.2 No. of 4.6 4.5 4.2 Registered Voters (millions) 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: For 1988 through 2010, Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the Current Population Survey November Supplements; for 2012, Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the August Current Population Survey. 2
Voter Turnout Rates in Presidential Elections % of U.S. citizens ages 18 and older who voted White, non-Hispanics 66 65 Black, non-Hispanics 50 Latinos 47 Asian, non-Hispanics 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 3 Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations from CPS November Supplements, various years
II Latinos, Religion and the Presidential Vote 2004 2008 Kerry Bush Other Obama McCain Other % % % % % % 53 44* 3 74 22 4 Latinos Catholic 58 39 3 81 16 3 Protestant 40 58 1 62 34 4 Evangelical 29 69 2 60 36 4 *In the 2004 exit poll there was some debate about the results of national exit poll data for Hispanics. Analyses of state-by-state exit poll data and CPS data suggest Bush s share of the Hispanic vote was closer to 40% than 44%. Note: In the 2008 data the religion question was asked somewhat differently than the current approach ( What is your religion Catholic, Evangelical Christian, Protestant, or something else? with no born-again follow up). Those who responded don t know or refused to respond are excluded. 4 Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, 2008; 2004 Exit Poll data
Party Affiliation among Latino Registered Voters % among registered voters 70 67 65 62 58 57 56 55 Democrats 49 28 28 26 25 25 25 23 22 20 Republicans 1999 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 5 Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, various years.
Party Affiliation by Religion Democrat/Lean Democrat % 70 56 52 71 81 Republican/Lean Republican % 22 31 36 21 10 Independent/ Other/DK/Ref % 9=100 13=100 13=100 7=100 9=100 N Registered Voters U.S. Latinos Protestant Evangelical Catholic Unaffiliated 903 291 204 401 150 Eligible Voters U.S. Latinos Protestant Evangelical Catholic Unaffiliated 69 59 52 70 75 18 26 33 18 11 13=100 15=100 15=100 12=100 14=100 1,241 402 270 523 224 6 Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, 2012.
Latino Vote Preference by Religion % who would vote or lean toward voting for each candidate if election were held today Obama Romney % 100 82 80 73 60 50 39 40 19 20 7 0 Catholic Religiously Unaffiliated Evangelical Protestant 7 Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, 2012.
Latinos and Same-Sex Marriage Do you favor or oppose allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally? Favor % 52 54 31 25 46 71 Oppose % 34 31 58 66 37 18 DK % N All Latinos Catholic Protestant Evangelical Mainline Unaffiliated 13=100 15=100 11=100 9=100 17=100 11=100 1,765 798 551 389 156 292 U.S. general public Catholic White Catholic Protestant White evangelical White mainline Unaffiliated 48 53 53 33 19 52 73 44 37 38 58 76 37 20 9=100 9=100 8=100 9=100 5=100 11=100 7=100 6,500 1391 940 3,406 1,351 1,146 1,064 Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, 2012. General public figures from aggregated polls conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press in 2012. Whites are non-Hispanic only. 8
Latino Views on Abortion Should be legal in all/most cases % 43 42 32 28 62 Should be illegal in all/most cases % 51 52 65 70 32 All Hispanics Catholic Protestant Evangelical Unaffiliated General population Catholic Protestant White evangelical Unaffiliated 54 50 48 34 73 41 44 47 60 22 9 Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, 2011 and Pew Research Center for People & the Press, October 2011.
If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government providing fewer services, or a bigger government providing more services? Smaller % 19 14 25 20 24 Bigger % 75 80 71 76 71 Depends % 2 2 * 1 2 DK/Ref % 4=100 5=100 4=100 3=100 3=100 N All Hispanics Catholic Protestant Evangelical Unaffiliated 1,220 792 223 161 140 U.S. GP Catholic White Catholic Protestant White Evangelical White Mainline Black Prot Unaffiliated 48 48 61 52 71 58 17 41 41 45 31 37 20 30 72 45 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 4 8=100 6=100 6=100 9=100 6=100 10=100 10=100 10=100 2,410 532 376 1,263 470 467 179 412 Source: National Survey of Latinos, General public comparison from October 2011 Survey by Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. 10
