International Traveler Insights: Wave 4 April 2022
Travelers from various countries are expressing varying levels of likelihood to visit California compared to pre-pandemic times. Price pressures and the war in Ukraine are impacting travel plans. California's competitive position among international competitors is analyzed, with insights on safety perceptions and barriers to visitation.
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International Tracking Study Wave 4 April 2022
Methodology SMARInsights collected data April 13 - 20, 2022 via an online survey Total sample: 3,639 Australia - 601 Canada 605 France 609 Germany - 622 Mexico 594 UK 608 Participants screened based on: Travel decision maker Has visited US in past 3 years or Likely to visit US in next 2 years Key survey areas: Likelihood to visit California and key domestic and international competitors Anticipated timing of future visitation Interest in Gateway cities Safety perceptions of California and key competitors Barriers to visitation (if not likely to visit) Comparisons to earlier waves (where applicable)
Pre-Pandemic Baseline Comparisons The pre-pandemic baseline is the average of the 2019 Spring and ROAS Waves for Likelihood to Visit for: Australia Canada Mexico UK The pre-pandemic baseline is from the 2019 Global Brand Health Study for: France Germany
Executive Summary When compared to pre-pandemic levels, travelers from Canada, Germany, Mexico, and UK all expressed a stronger likelihood to visit California. Australia and France likelihood to visit are on par with pre-pandemic levels. It appears that international travelers have been using travel credits since January 2022, as fewer Australians, Canadians, French, and British currently have unused credits. Price pressures are having a greater negative influence on travel than the war in Ukraine. Around a third of international travelers from most countries indicate that the price of travel has impacted their 2022 travel plans. About 1 in 5 indicate that the war has had an influence. California is in a strong position compared to domestic competitors in terms of likelihood to visit in Australia, France, and Mexico. California is on par with the competition in Canada and Germany. The UK is the only country where California is relatively weak in this regard. The British are more likely to visit Florida and New York. Germany is the most affected by the war, with close to a third indicating some influence. Postponing upcoming travel or changing travel plans are the most prevalent changes. In France, California s domestic competitive position in terms of likelihood to visit improved in the most recent wave. California has been strong across waves in Australia and Mexico. Mexico is the most affected by prices, with about half indicating some influence. California is not as strong among international competitors in terms of likelihood to visit. The exception is Mexico, where California has a clear competitive advantage. Europeans are simply more likely to travel within Europe. Australians are more likely to visit Europe and Asian/Pacific countries. Safety concerns and travel restrictions due to the pandemic are weaker barriers to California travel now than they were in January 2022. Expense is now the top barrier in all countries. But while the pandemic presents less of a barrier now than it did in January, it remains a stronger barrier for California than it does for competitors.
Market Scorecard Summaries (Wave 4) Likelihood to Visit vs. Pre-Pandemic Levels Strength Relative to Domestic Competition Strength Relative to International Competition Planned Timing of Future Visitation (mean) Australia +0.1 +2.6 -8.9 14.9 Canada +5.3 +0.1 -1.7 13.7 France -0.1 +4.0 -35.9 14.3 Germany +5.4 +0.5 -41.1 14.3 Mexico +9.1 +10.1 +16.0 8.7 UK +2.0 -5.5 -46.6 13.9
Likelihood to Visit vs. Pre-Pandemic Levels Likelihood to visit California is above pre-pandemic levels in Canada, Germany, Mexico, and UK. Australians likelihood dipped back to baseline levels. Likelihood in France has been stable. Likelihood to Visit California vs. Pre-Pandemic Baseline Baseline Jan 2022 Wave Apr 2022 Wave 57 56 47 33 31 30 29 27 26 26 25 25 25 25 24 24 22 22 Australia Canada France Germany Mexico UK +0.1 +5.3 -0.1 +5.4 +9.1 +2.0 Point difference and % change: +0.2% +24.0% -0.4% +21.4% +19.3% +9.3% *vs. Pre-Pandemic Baseline from 2019; Q: How likely are you to visit each of the following places in the next two years? Source: SMARInsights, International Tracking Study (Jan 2022 and Apr 2022)
Anticipated Trip Timing (Mean Mos) California s southern neighbor has the shortest mean number of months until their California trip. Canada is the shortest of the remaining countries, but the mean has grown since the January research wave. Mean Months Until Next CA Trip (Among Those Likely To Visit) 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 9 9 Australia Canada France Germany Mexico UK Jan 2022 Wave Apr 2022 Wave Source: SMARInsights, International Tracking Study (Jan 2022 and Apr 2022) Q. When are you likely to visit California (among those who will visit in next 2 years)
Likelihood to Visit Gateway Cities Los Angeles and San Francisco continue to be the top gateways across countries in terms of intent to visit. In Canada and France, the intent to visit all gateways dipped in the current wave. January 2022 Wave Australia Canada France Germany Mexico UK Los Angeles, California 58 55 58 59 72 55 San Francisco, California 55 48 56 60 60 56 San Diego, California 39 46 42 37 56 39 Anaheim / Orange County, California 48 47 36 34 54 43 April 2022 Wave Australia Canada France Germany Mexico UK Los Angeles, California 58 49 56 59 72 54 San Francisco, California 53 43 52 60 58 53 San Diego, California 38 37 34 39 58 39 Anaheim / Orange County, California 46 38 31 37 57 39 Source: SMARInsights, International Tracking Study (Jan 2022 and Apr 2022)
Domestic Competitive Context Australians are more likely to visit California than the domestic competitive set of New York, and Nevada/Las Vegas. Among Canadians, interest in visiting California is similar to interest in Florida, NY and Hawai i. Among the French, the strongest interest is in visiting NY, but California also generates strong interest above the aggregate comp set. Germans are similarly likely to visit California as the domestic competition. For Mexican travelers, California is the clear favorite, followed by Florida and New York. UK presents the greatest challenge in this regard, as the British are more likely to visit Florida and New York. % Likelihood to Visit (April 2022 Wave) CA FL NY HI NV/LV TX 56 49 48 43 41 34 32 30 30 30 31 30 29 29 27 27 26 25 25 24 24 24 23 22 20 19 19 18 17 18 17 15 14 13 12 12 Australia Canada France Germany Mexico UK +2.6 +0.1 +4.0 +0.5 +10.1 -5.5 Point difference and % change*: +10.9% +.2% +17.2% +1.8% +22.4% -18.7% (vs. HI, NY, NV/LV) (vs. FL, NY, HI) (vs. FL, NY, TX) (vs. FL, NY) (vs. FL, NY, HI) (vs. FL, NY, HI) *vs. average of top competitors per market Q: How likely are you to visit each of the following places in the next two years? Source: SMARInsights, International Tracking Study (April 2022)
Domestic Competitive Context Tracking California continues to be strong competitively in Australia and Mexico. California s competitive position in Canada and the UK softened in the most recent wave. The state s competitive position in France improved in the most recent wave. Australia Canada NA NA +3.3 +2.6 +1.1 +1.7 +3.8 +0.1 Point difference and % change*: Point difference and % change*: NA NA +12.8% +10.9% +3.4% +6.5% +13.3 +0.2% (vs. HI, NY, NV/LV) Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 (vs. FL, HI, NY) Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 France Germany NA +1.3 +0.2 +4.0 NA NA +0.6 +0.5 Point difference and % change*: Point difference and % change*: NA +4.8% +1.0% +17.2% NA NA +2.1% +1.8% (vs. FL, HI, NY) Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 (vs. FL, HI, NY) Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Mexico UK +10.5 +10.8 +12.2 +10.1 -5.8 -4.3 -2.0 -5.5 Point difference and % change*: Point difference and % change*: +22.5% +23.5% +27.2% +22.4% -20.0% -15.7% -7.6% -18.7% (vs. FL, NY, TX) Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 (vs. FL, NY) Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 *vs. average of top competitors per market Q: How likely are you to visit each of the following places in the next two years? Source: SMARInsights, International Tracking Study
International Competitive Context Australians are more likely to visit Europe and Asian Pacific destinations than California. California has a strong advantage among Mexican travelers vs. other International destinations even compared to Central/South America and the Caribbean. Canada is the strongest competition for the Mexican travelers. Because of the strength of European destinations, California is at a considerable competitive disadvantage with travelers from France, German, and UK. % Likelihood to Visit (April 2022 Wave) CA Canada Mexico Europe Asia/Pac Aust/NZ Caribbean Central/South AM 71 71 63 56 43 41 41 39 36 34 33 30 29 28 27 27 26 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 21 19 19 18 18 18 16 16 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 13 13 10 Australia Canada France Germany Mexico UK Point difference and % change*: -8.9 -1.7 -35.9 -41.1 +16.0 -46.6 -25.4% -5.8% -56.8% -57.5% +39.8% -66.0% (vs. EUR) (vs. EUR) (vs. CAN, EUR, AP) (vs. MEX, EUR, CAR) (vs. EUR) (vs. CAN, EUR, CAR) *vs. average of top competitors per market Q: How likely are you to visit each of the following places in the next two years? Source: SMARInsights, International Tracking Study (April 2022)
International Competitive Context Tracking California maintains a strong competitive position in Mexico but struggles in Europe and Australia. California s position in Australia and Canada softened in the most recent wave. Australia Canada NA NA -4.1 -8.9 +1.6 +0.9 +1.4 -1.7 Point difference and % change*: Point difference and % change*: NA NA -12.3% -25.4% +4.7% +3.4% +4.5% -5.8% (vs. CAN, EUR, AP) Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 (vs. MEX, EUR, CAR) France Germany NA -35.0 -39.8 -35.9 NA NA -43.1 -41.1 Point difference and % change*: Point difference and % change*: NA -54.7% -62.8% -56.8% NA NA -58.4% -57.5% (vs. EUR) Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 (vs. EUR) Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Mexico UK +16.2 +15.5 +15.4 +16.0 -37.2 -40.0 -42.0 -46.6 Point difference and % change*: Point difference and % change*: +28.3% +27.1% +37.1% +39.8% -61.6% -63.5% -62.8% -66.0% Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 (vs. CAN, EUR, CAR) (vs. EUR) Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 *vs. average of top competitors per market Q: How likely are you to visit each of the following places in the next two years? Source: SMARInsights, International Tracking Study
Travel Credit International travelers have been using travel credits since January 2022, as evidenced by fewer unused travel credits in the current wave in Australia, Canada, France, and UK. Have unused travel credits from 2020 31 28 26 25 24 20 20 17 16 15 15 11 Australia Canada France Germany Mexico UK Jan 2022 Wave Apr 2022 Wave
Ukraine Impact The war in Ukraine has had/will have no impact on 2022 travel plans for most international travelers across countries. Germany is the most affected, with close to a third of international travelers indicating some influence. Postponing upcoming travel or changing travel plans are the most prevalent changes. Very few have canceled travel due to the war. How has the the war in Ukraine impacted your travel plans for 2022? 81 80 79 78 72 69 13 12 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 I ve canceled upcoming travel due to the war I ve postponed upcoming travel due to the war I ve postponed finalizing travel plans due to the war I ve changed travel plans due to the war No impact on my travel plans or travel planning for 2022 Australia Canada France Germany Mexico UK
Prices Impact Around a third of international travelers indicate that the price of travel has impacted their 2022 travel plans. Mexico is the outlier, where about half indicate an impact. Postponing or changing plans are more likely that cancelling plans. How has the price of travel impacted your travel plans for 2022? 69 65 64 64 62 52 22 19 18 15 15 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 4 4 3 3 3 2 I ve canceled upcoming travel due to high prices I ve postponed upcoming travel due to high prices I ve postponed finalizing travel plans due to high prices I ve changed travel plans due to high prices No impact on my travel plans or travel planning for 2022 Australia Canada France Germany Mexico UK
Barriers Safety concerns and travel restrictions due to the pandemic are weaker barriers now than they were in January 2022. Expense is now the top barrier in all countries. Australia Canada France Germany Mexico UK Mean Rating (1-5) Jan 2022 Wave Apr 2022 Wave Jan 2022 Wave Apr 2022 Wave Jan 2022 Wave Apr 2022 Wave Jan 2022 Wave Apr 2022 Wave Jan 2022 Wave Apr 2022 Wave Jan 2022 Wave Apr 2022 Wave Among Not Very/Not At All Likely to Visit California Safety concerns related to coronavirus pandemic Travel restrictions related to coronavirus Traffic Natural disasters (such as hurricanes, flooding, wildfires, earthquakes) Crime Homelessness Political climate Expensive Unwelcoming Dangerous Crowded Losing its character due to over-tourism Overdeveloped Gun violence Limited flights Hard to get to Too touristy Unfavorable exchange rate Racial prejudice and hate Anti-Asian sentiment The war in Ukraine High travel prices 3.05 3.13 1.98 1.94 2.34 1.84 2.04 2.68 1.87 2.28 2.22 1.99 1.86 2.49 2.08 2.05 1.96 2.25 2.05 1.79 NA NA 2.58 2.58 1.98 1.92 2.40 1.88 2.04 2.70 1.93 2.23 2.20 1.96 1.94 2.59 1.88 2.14 2.01 2.19 2.01 1.72 1.94 2.76 3.16 3.29 2.10 2.20 2.46 1.97 2.22 2.97 1.92 2.31 2.35 2.02 1.97 2.45 1.90 1.92 2.06 2.57 2.02 1.82 NA NA 2.39 2.50 2.24 2.06 2.33 1.89 2.04 2.96 1.94 2.23 2.28 2.01 1.96 2.42 1.76 1.92 2.11 2.45 1.96 1.69 1.77 2.90 2.73 2.98 2.03 2.32 2.30 1.88 2.02 2.56 2.02 2.18 2.25 2.17 2.04 2.39 2.14 2.36 2.11 2.06 2.06 1.74 NA NA 2.22 2.51 2.08 2.20 2.31 1.87 1.97 2.64 2.01 2.19 2.28 2.21 2.04 2.31 2.04 2.22 2.21 2.09 2.01 1.70 2.08 3.04 2.72 2.94 1.96 2.14 2.38 1.81 2.03 2.83 1.83 2.28 2.26 2.07 1.74 2.47 1.96 2.38 2.00 1.78 2.00 1.66 NA NA 2.15 2.38 2.06 2.13 2.39 1.77 2.09 2.96 1.86 2.29 2.23 2.16 1.77 2.50 1.96 2.46 2.04 1.91 2.02 1.74 2.05 3.07 2.88 2.82 2.03 2.12 2.36 1.83 1.93 2.77 1.73 2.14 2.18 1.71 1.92 2.37 2.03 1.90 2.04 2.32 2.04 1.54 NA NA 2.56 2.62 2.16 2.23 2.45 2.03 2.10 2.80 1.93 2.42 2.26 1.95 1.94 2.47 2.11 2.00 2.05 2.37 2.35 1.87 2.10 2.79 2.54 2.83 1.81 1.94 2.09 1.71 1.75 2.62 1.73 2.00 1.99 1.84 1.81 2.26 1.81 2.11 1.90 1.78 1.74 1.59 NA NA 2.01 2.21 1.77 1.88 2.12 1.70 1.83 2.74 1.72 2.03 1.90 1.77 1.74 2.32 1.84 2.20 1.88 1.81 1.76 1.54 1.76 2.74
Barriers California Competitive Index While the pandemic presents less of a barrier now than it did in January, it remains a stronger barrier for California than it does for competitors. Australia Canada France Germany Mexico UK Mean Rating (1-5) Jan 2022 Wave Apr 2022 Wave Jan 2022 Wave Apr 2022 Wave Jan 2022 Wave Apr 2022 Wave Jan 2022 Wave Apr 2022 Wave Jan 2022 Wave Apr 2022 Wave Jan 2022 Wave Apr 2022 Wave Among Not Very/Not At All Likely to Visit California Safety concerns related to coronavirus pandemic Travel restrictions related to coronavirus Traffic Natural disasters (such as hurricanes, flooding, wildfires, earthquakes) Crime Homelessness Political climate Expensive Unwelcoming Dangerous Crowded Losing its character due to over-tourism Overdeveloped Gun violence Limited flights Hard to get to Too touristy Unfavorable exchange rate Racial prejudice and hate Anti-Asian sentiment The war in Ukraine High travel prices 104 105 105 104 106 102 106 103 102 105 103 102 97 106 104 100 97 105 104 100 NA NA 106 110 106 112 107 108 102 106 100 104 104 99 98 105 102 100 95 106 101 100 NA NA 103 107 100 105 100 98 99 105 98 99 101 98 98 103 101 106 97 100 97 97 NA NA 105 107 100 109 104 101 101 106 100 104 103 98 95 106 103 108 93 101 100 99 NA NA 103 99 95 101 102 97 97 96 90 97 93 89 99 96 100 94 95 100 94 93 NA NA 102 108 103 109 104 105 100 104 101 102 100 98 98 107 100 106 95 100 101 102 NA NA 108 107 105 104 106 104 106 102 103 103 104 100 101 108 99 103 98 104 103 101 106 107 101 108 114 113 106 106 100 106 103 106 104 105 103 107 100 99 102 105 100 98 107 108 100 106 102 104 102 98 98 102 99 100 101 100 97 104 98 101 99 100 98 94 105 108 101 108 101 105 101 98 103 102 99 100 99 101 95 105 101 107 93 102 99 99 109 105 107 109 105 104 106 103 104 101 102 105 102 101 102 108 101 98 98 108 108 107 110 102 99 106 99 107 103 101 103 102 100 102 96 95 94 107 100 108 94 99 100 96 104 104
Summary Scorecards from Previous Waves
Market Scorecard Summaries (Wave 3) Likelihood to Visit vs. Pre-Pandemic Levels Strength Relative to Domestic Competition Strength Relative to International Competition Planned Timing of Future Visitation (mean) Australia +3.0 +3.3 -4.1 14.5 Canada +10.3 +3.8 +1.4 13.0 China -15.9 +1.8 +1.3 10.2 France -1.3 +0.2 -39.8 13.5 Germany +5.6 +0.6 -43.1 15.4 Japan -16.7 -8.4 -7.0 16.2 Mexico +9.9 +12.2 +15.4 8.8 South Korea -11.1 +0.2 -5.6 15.6 UK +2.7 -2.0 -42.0 13.8
Market Scorecard Summaries (Wave 2) Likelihood to Visit vs. Pre-Pandemic Levels Strength Relative to Domestic Competition Strength Relative to International Competition Planned Timing of Future Visitation (mean) Canada +0.9 14.3 +5.4 +1.7 -35.0 14.1 France -15.3 +4.1 +1.3 12.3 Mexico +10.3 +10.5 +16.2 UK -4.3 -40.0 +0.7 13.7
Market Scorecard Summaries (Wave 1) Likelihood to Visit vs. Pre-Pandemic Levels Strength Relative to Domestic Competition Strength Relative to International Competition Planned Timing of Future Visitation (mean) Canada +1.6 11.2 +10.8 +1.1 +0.5 8.9 China -15.3 -15.3 +1.0 8.9 Mexico +10.0 +10.8 +15.5 UK -5.8 -37.2 +1.0 12.9
