Future of Refining Industry in Central Europe: Trends and Challenges
The future of oil processing in Central Europe relies on deepening ties with petrochemicals for sustainable growth. Enhancing competitiveness in the petrochemical and related processing industry is crucial for long-term sustainability and development. Key areas of discussion include technological advancements in oil processing, integration with petrochemicals, impact of alternative fuels, and complexities faced by refineries in the region. Notable applications include integrated refinery-petrochemical complexes.
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KONKURENCESCHOPNOST RAFIN RI VE ST EDOEVROPSK M REGIONU PETROLsummit 16 PRAHA 1.11.2016 Ing. Ivan Sou ek, Ph.D.
Motto: Budoucnost zpracov n ropy je zalo ena na prohlubov n vazeb s petrochemi s udr ov n m realistick ho tr n ho pod lu v poolu motorov ch paliv. Budouc rozvoj a konkurenceschopnost petrochemick ho a navazuj c ho zpracovatelsk ho pr myslu ve St edn Evrop je tedy pro dlouhodobou udr itelnost odv tv zpracov n ropy v R z sadn . Obsah 1. Z kladn v chodiska 2. Technologie hlubok ho zpracov n ropy a integrace s petrochemi 3. Trendy a dopady uplat ov n alternativn ch paliv 4. Z v ry
ZKLADN VCHODISKA GLOB LN V VOJ CHEMICK HO PR MYSLU VE SV T
ZKLADN VCHODISKA GLOB LN V VOJ CHEMICK HO PR MYSLU VE SV T
ZKLADN VCHODISKA UZAV RAN RAFINERIE V EVROP V POSLEDN CH 10 LETECH A KOMPLEXITA ZPRACOV N ROPY Srovn n komplexity zpracov n ropy st edo- evropsk ch s ostatn mi evropsk mi rafineriemi Aktualizov no dle Nexant 2013 NCI RL p ed integrac s Uni RPA inil 7,2; p i zapo ten jednotky POX je to pak 7,5; NCI RK in 8,3-8,7 (dle zohledn n VD)
ZKLADN VCHODISKA Z SOBOV N ROPOU A TR N POSTAVEN JEDNOTLIV CH RAFIN RI Syst m z sobov n ropou kl ov ch rafin ri v regionu znamen , e nejvy dopravn n klady maj esk rafinerie, kter se nach zej na konci obou ropovodn ch p ipojen .
TECHNOLOGIE HLUBOKHO ZPRACOV N ROPY A INTEGRACE S PETROCHEMI Czech Republic: CRC Litv nov (+UP) AD VD HCU VD UCO Steam Cracker feed Lube Oils FCC feed VR VBU POX (VBR gasific.) VBR
TECHNOLOGIE HLUBOKHO ZPRACOV N ROPY A INTEGRACE S PETROCHEMI Poland: Lotos Slovakia: Slovnaft/MOL AD AD VD HCU VD HCU VD UCO VD UCO FCC VR SDA VR RHCU Slurry Oil pitch (HSFO, Bitumen) LSFO
APLIKACE TECHNOLOGI HLUBOKHO ZPRACOV N ROPY A INTEGRACE S PETROCHEMI Nejv znamn j p nosy integrace rafinerie a petrochemie: 1. Integrovan rafinersko-petrochemick komplex je l pe finan n i v robkov vyv en, umo uje sn en variabiln ch n klad (energie, doprava), fixn ch n klad ( dr ba, logistick n klady)a sporu pracovn ho kapit lu (optimalizace z sob) 2. Petrochemick zpracov n umo uje lep zhodnocen rafin rsk ch zbytk (UCO, VBR) 3. Oba sektory jsou schopni l pe zhodnotit vedlej produkty (C5, C9 vs. n zkooktanov frakce)
TRENDY UPLATOVN ALTERNATIVN CH PALIV Premium 10PPM - IP0 M S CE Fuel Grade Ethanol - IP0 M S CE Diesel 19.00 K 25.00 K 24.00 K 18.00 K 23.00 K 17.00 K 22.00 K 21.00 K 16.00 K 20.00 K 15.00 K 19.00 K 18.00 K 14.00 K 17.00 K 13.00 K 16.00 K 15.00 K 12.00 K 14.00 K 11.00 K 13.00 K 12.00 K 10.00 K 11.00 K 9.00 K 10.00 K 9.00 K 8.00 K 8.00 K 7.00 K 7.00 K 6.00 K 6.00 K Konkurenceschopnost rafin rsk ho zpracov n je d na povinnosti m sen bioslo ek vs. n hrada miner ln ch paliv biopalivy
TRENDY UPLATOVN ALTERNATIVN CH PALIV Ze sm rnice Evropsk ho parlamentu a Rady . 2009/28/ES, o podpo e vyu v n energie z obnoviteln ch zdroj vypl v pro Evropskou unii jako celek v roce 2020 c l 20% pod lu energie z obnoviteln ch zdroj a c l 10 % pod lu energie z obnoviteln ch zdroj v doprav . Pro eskou republiku byl Evropskou Komis stanoven minim ln 13 % pod l energie z obnoviteln ch zdroj na hrub kone n spot eb energie. Spln n tohoto c le mus z rove zajistit minim ln 10 % pod l obnoviteln ch zdroj v doprav , z toho max. 7 % biopaliv 1, generace a indikativn min. 0,5 % vysp l ch paliv. Podle sm rnice 2009/28/ES, o podpo e vyu v n energie z obnoviteln ch zdroj a z kona . 201/2012 Sb., o ochran ovzdu je R povinna v r. 2020 zajistit sporu GHG plyn z dopravy ve v i 6 % v porovn n s referen n m stavem spot eby klasick ch fosiln ch pohonn ch hmot (r. 1994). Sou asn by v r. 2018 m la spora GHG plyn dos hnout 3,5% (viz novela z kona o ochran ovzdu z 10/2016).
ZVRY 1. V p pad chemick ho pr myslu (na rozd l od rafin rsk ho pr myslu) je o ek v n trval m rn dlouhodob r st (m rn nad r stem HDP). Rafin rsk pr mysl se st edn dob mus p izp sobit trend m p i uplat ov n alternativn ch paliv, zat mco z st v kl ov m odv tv m pro navazuj c (petro)chemick pr mysl. 2. V t nost a efektivnost zpracov n ropy do lehk ch produkt (pro st edn dob uplatn n v motorov ch palivech a dlouhodob uplatn n jako vstup na navazuj c petrochemick zpracov n ) bude z sadn ovliv ovat perspektivu instalovan ch rafin rsk ch kapacit a jejich mo n dal rozvoj v regionu a jejich vz jemnou konkurenceschopnost. Velikost instalovan kapacity v ak nemus b t z sadn . Z sadn pro rafin rie z st v dostupnost trhu motorov ch paliv a petrochemick ho zpracov n . 3. ir vyu it alternativn ch zdroj energie bude z viset na uplat ovan fisk ln podpo e a n kladovosti v roby vs. disponibilita a n kladovost zpracov n ropy (z sadn odvisl od ceny ropy na sv tov ch trz ch) 4. Chemick a rafin rsk pr mysl je z sadn z visl na spot eb a cen energi a surovin, od t chto parametr se bude d le rozv jet konkurenceschopnost odv tv v Evrop , resp. ve St edn Evrop . Lze o ek vat, e kapacita zpracov n ropy ve st edoevropsk m regionu bude st edn dob klesat p i sou asn m zvy ov n v t ku ropy a postupn m uplat ov n alternativn ch paliv.
ZVRY KE KONKURENCESCHOPNOSTI ST EDOEVROPSK CH RAFIN RI Konkurenceschopn rafinerie k 2021 (upraveno dle A.T. Kearney): V znamn instalovan kapacita (>20mil. t/rok) dn z rafineri v regionu nespl uje toto krit rium (p i em PKN Orlen Plock se k t to kapacit bl ) Komplexita: NCI:>10 nebo vy v ce region ln ch rafin ri toto krit rium spl uj (z nich Slovnaft m NCI nejvy ) State-of-the-art technologie v ce region ln ch rafin ri toto krit rium (technologie hlubok ho zpracov n ropy) spl uj nebo jej budou spl ovat Modernizace d c ch syst m a instalovan ch tradi n ch technologi - v ce region ln ch rafin ri toto krit rium spl uj zam en m na optimalizaci provozu (DCS, APC) a sporu energi (EII dle Solomon: <80 nebo ni ) Napl ov n HSSE standard dle mezin rodn praxe region ln rafin rie toto krit rium v ce i m n spl uj Rafinerie s p stupem k mo i pouze INA Rijeka (MOL) a LOTOS Gda sk toto krit rium spl uj P stup k syst mu produktovodn s t , mo nost logistick ch cest prost ednictv m lodn ( n nebo mo sk ), elezni n a silni n dopravy v ce region ln ch rafin ri toto krit rium spl uj z podstatn sti, v t in v ak chyb n kter z d l ch aspekt Souhrn: Ve st edoevropsk m regionu nen provozov na dn ide ln (pln konkurenceschopn ) rafin rie. Pozn: NCI - Nelson Complexity index; HSSE - health, safety, security, environment. Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
POUIT ZDROJE 1. A.T. Kearney: Refinery competitivenss analysis, 2011 2. I. Sou ek, Z. Popovi , O. Oci : Refinery and Petrochemical Inteface, WRA, 2012 3. R. Gonzales: Is Bigger always Better?, Fuel, 2013 4. A. Borusso: Market dynamics and trends, Petrochemicals: an opportunity to add value, IHS, WRA Conference, 2014 5. I. Sou ek: Meet the expert, Refining-petrochemical integration, WRA, 2014 6. www.shell.com: Exploiting refinery and petrochemical integration, 2014 7. J. Sou ek, M. Kub : Fisk ln podpora, Energetika/ProEnergy, 2015 8. Kolektiv autor : n vrh pro aktualizaci NAP R pro obnoviteln zdroje, V CHT, 2016 Kontakt: souceki@vscht.cz nebo ivan.soucek@schp.cz
Asset - related factors move through four stages to total value creation Input and output factors go through similar stages Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 1 Stage 4 Large-scale asset (>20mtpa) Complexity ( NCI>10 or higher) State-of-the-art technology Recent up-grades Small-scale asset (< 10mtpa) Complexity (NCI<5) Medium-scale asset (>10mtpa) Complexity (NCI: 5 -9) World scale asset (>30mtpa) Complexity (NCI:>10) Protected state- of.the-art technology Recent major upgrades Scale and technology Dated technology No recent upgrades Dated technology Continual small upgrade Strict state regulation of fuel quality and standards HSSE standards exceed international practices No political support Tax regime favors imports over domestic production Increasing state regulation of fuel quality and standards HSSE standards somewhat exceed international practices Unclear poitical support Neutral tax regime supports balanced imports and exports Weak state regulation of fuel quality and standards HSSE standards meet international practices Some political support Neutral tax regime ensures import parity and more Little or no state regulation of fuel quality or standards HSSE standards compliant with domestic practices Secure political support Tax regime favors domestic refining and export Scale and technology Notes:Scale of assets determined by million tons per annum (mtpa); NCI is Nelson Complexity index; HSSE is health, safety, security, and environment. Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
Asset - related factors move through four stages to total value creation Input and output factors go through similar stages Stage 2 Stage 1 Stage 3 Stage 4 Sea - going rafinery No access to product pipeline grid Logistics via barge, rail, or road Export limitations Ongoing efforts to manage working capital Land-locked rafinery No access to product pipeline grid Logistics via rail and road No systematic process to manage working capital Land-locked rafinery No access to product pipeline grid Logistics via barge, rail, or road Regular working capital initiatives (Deep) sea-going rafinery Access to product pipeline grid Logistics via ultra-large vessel, barge, rail, or road Import and export rafinery Excellence in working capital management Supply chain management Technology- enabled refining of havier crude Recent slate changes Flexibility to adapt operations Technology linked to local crude specifications No recent slate changes Limited or no flexibility to adapt operations Technology-enabled refining of medium to light crude No recent slate changes Flexibility to adapt operations, but it's major effort Technology-enabled refining of all crude Regular slate changes "Swing" rafinery, technical feasibility to adapt operations Slate flexibility Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
Is Bigger Always Better? Refining-industry planners screening capital projects are cautioned by the refrain that profitable refinery facilities should be world scale. Today, that could mean building a mega-processing complex approaching 1 million b/d based on an economy of scale linked to plant inside-battery limits (ISBL). However, sufficient market demand for refined product still needs to exist if the plant is to reach 100% utilization capacity in order to achieve economies-of-scale. Capacity is one of the biggest competitive advantages in a mega-refinery complex, but in the future, other factors will be of equal consideration, such as required offsite assets, where diseconomies of scale can often surface. And then there is the maintenance factor to consider, especially when a section of a mega complex (or the entire complex) encounters an unexpected shutdown. Maintaining huge plants is an expensive investment in terms of initial capital expenditures (CAPEX) that become costlier in terms of operational expenditures (OPEX) as the plant ages. And definitely, logistics (product diversity, distance, transportation means etc.) will play significant role as well (esp. land-locked regions). More refiners seek diversification further down the petrochemicals value chain. The longer value-added chain from refining to petrochemicals undoubtedly requires a substantial complex with longer chains ranging from intermediates to polyolefins and elastomers. Efficient downstream integration of refinery and petrochemical operations enhances plant economics by sharing offsite and utilities OPEX and CAPEX. For certain geographically advantaged refiners, proximity to reliable feedstock and downstream markets weighs more heavily than capacity. The reason is because refinery assets, regardless of capacity, have been specifically customized to the local market, feedstock availability and infrastructure constraints. Refinery integration with the transportation fuels and petrochemical-derivatives market brings profitability and efficiencies to the integrated mega-refinery/petrochemical complex. As with other process and manufacturing industries competing in the global commodities market, bigger is usually better in terms of reducing per unit manufacturing costs and smoothing out profit and loss cycles. A high-complexity mega- processing facility is all about giving the energy-focused enterprise the flexibility to keep up with changing global markets and meeting higher product standards, such as Euro-IV fuels and polyethylene. While the complex mega- refinery/petrochemical model is still valid, there is a noticeable trend towards specialized and small, but profitable processing facilities, predicating the need for large refinery enterprises to restructure and strategically reposition their assets and relinquish marginal assets. Source: Fuel 09/2013, Rene Gonzalez
