Florida Emergency Management March 4, 2024 Report
Florida's Division of Emergency Management Morning Situation Report for March 4, 2024. State Emergency Operations Center at Level 2 activation, key personnel on call, and regional coordination team updates provided.
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Florida Division of Emergency Management State Watch Office Morning Situation Report Monday, March 4, 2024
State Emergency Operations Center Activation Level Level 2 Activation
SERT On-Call Personnel Position Personnel Ian Guidicelli Caitlyn Gillespie Jeremy Whitt Logan Qualk Zachary Remante Matthew Peloso Kennedy Tartt Kaylynn Perry Orlando Arindell Pam Hughes Rob Dietrich Christina Goetzman Brandon Gore Alecia Collins Jessica Blake Phone Email Ian.Guidicelli@em.myflorida.com Caitlyn.Gillespie@em.myflorida.com Jeremy.Whitt@em.myflorida.com SWP@em.myflorida.com SWP@em.myflorida.com SWP@em.myflorida.com Kennedy.Tartt@em.myflorida.com Plans_Command@em.myflorida.com Orlando.Arindelll@em.myflorida.com Pamela.Hughes@em.myflorida.com Robert.Dietrich@em.myflorida.com Christina.Goetzman@em.myflorida.com DLDOHDutyOfficers@flhealth.gov Alecia.Collins@em.myflorida.com Jessica.Blake@em.myflorida.com Operations Chief Watch Officer Duty Officer Operations Officer- Day Operations Officer- Swing Operations Officer- Night Meteorologist Plans Chief Logistics Chief Human Services Director Emergency Services Infrastructure Branch Director ESF 8 On-Call Public Information Officer DEM Finance and Admin (850) 354-3044 (850) 688-2119 (850) 755-8521 (850) 815-4001 (850) 815-4001 (850) 815-4001 (850) 567-6368 (850) 254-5657 (850) 759-6967 (850) 528-5638 (850) 727-3414 (850) 519-8581 (866) 786-4673 (850) 591-9544 (850) 284-8070
Regional Coordination Team Team County Location In Region Out of Service In Region In Region Visits On-Call Status Leave (See Coverage) On-Call Status On-Call Status Region 1: Jim Roberts Region 2: Willie Bouie Region 3: Glen Hammers Region 4: James Carter Region 5: Austin Beeghly Region 6: Paul Siddall Region 7: Cristian Rivera Region 8: Karen Kozac Region 9: Theresa Hendry Region 10: Claudia Baker Out of Service In Region In Region In Region Out of Service In Region Leave (See Coverage) On-Call Status On-Call Status On-Call Status Leave (See Coverage) On-Call Status Region 2 Coverage Provided by RRC 2 Region 5 Coverage Provided By RRC 5 Region 9 Coverage Provided By RRC 9 RC Status Normal Operations Out of Service / Unavailable
Recovery Regional Coordination Team Team County Location In Region Status / Activities Off & Monitoring Region 1: Allison Blevins Region 2: Justin Lazzara Region 3: Patrick James Region 4: Joshua Saunders Region 5: Elizabeth Caison RRCT Manager Region 6: Jeremy O'Dell Region 7: Grant Goodwin Region 8: Vacant Region 9: Kathryn Thompson Region 10: Dana McGeehan In Region On Call Coverage for Region 2 In Region Off & Monitoring Out of Region Leave In Region Off & Monitoring In Region Off & Monitoring Out of Region N/A In Region In Region Leave See Coverage On Call Coverage for Region 9 Off & Monitoring RRC Status Region 4 Coverage Provided by RRC 3 Region 7 Coverage Provided by RRC 5 Region 8 Coverage Provided by RRC 5 and 10 Normal Operations In Region / Delayed Response Deployed / Delayed Response Out of Service / Unavailable
Meteorology Summary Threat R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 L L L R9 L L L R10 L L L Lightning Tornado Damaging Wind Hail Flash Flooding Freezing (Overnight) Fog (Overnight) River Flooding Rip Currents Lake Okeechobee Elevation: Keetch-Byram Drought Index: L L L L L L L L L M M H 16.32 ft. (1.76 ft. Above Normal) 131 (+5) on a scale from 0 (very moist) to 800 (very dry) L M M M M L Today s Weather Map 24-Hour Forecast Rainfall Totals Locally 3-5 South Florida
Meteorology Summary Statewide Overview, Next 24 Hours: A developing low pressure system over the central Gulf of Mexico will continue to move eastward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and towards the Florida Peninsula. Abundant moisture flowing inland from the Gulf, as well as favorable atmospheric conditions, will allow for widespread showers throughout the day across the eastern Big Bend and throughout the Peninsula (80-near 100% chance of rain). Decreasing rain chances can be expected across the Panhandle and western Big Bend throughout the day as drier and cooler air move in behind the system. A lingering frontal boundary draped across South Florida will give way to favorable conditions for isolated thunderstorms to develop later this morning and continue throughout the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather across South Florida and the Florida Keys where isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. These stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing lightning, damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph), an isolated tornado or two and heavy rainfall. Light to moderate rainfall can be expected throughout the day, with instances of locally heavy rainfall possible at times throughout the day. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across portions of East-Central and South Florida, including the Southeast Metro, where widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall at times leading to localized instances of flooding across urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas. Breezy wind gusts of 20-25 mph can be expected across Northeast Florida and along the I-4 corridor throughout the afternoon and evening hours. As the low pressure gradually moves eastward throughout the day, it will move inland across the southern Peninsula later this afternoon before reemerging along the Southeast Florida coastline this evening and into the early overnight hours. This will allow for rain chances to decrease from west to east during the evening and overnight hours. Widespread showers can be expected to continue through the late evening hours and into the early overnight hours before activity becomes more isolated to scattered as the low moves away from the coastline (70-90% chance of rain). Breezy wind gusts upwards of 20-30 mph will develop along the Florida East Coast later in the evening and overnight as the low reemerges off the coast and northerly onshore winds develop. Cooler and drier air will move in behind the passing system across the Panhandle and the Florida West Coast overnight. Cooler conditions across North Florida can be expected with widespread cloud cover and elevated rain chances across Northeast Florida. High temperatures will reach the low to middle 50s. Widespread cloud cover and rainfall across Central Florida will keep high temperatures in the low to middle 60s, while South Florida can expect high temperatures in the upper 60s to middle 70s. The Florida Keys will see high temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80-degrees. Clearing skies will allow for low temperatures in fall into the low to middle 30s across the Panhandle and Big Bend, with temperatures near or below freezing (30-32 degrees) along the far western Panhandle overnight. Calm winds and clear skies may allow for areas of patchy frost and a light freeze to develop overnight and early Monday morning along the northern Panhandle and Big Bend (north of the I-10 corridor). Portions of the Suwannee River Valley could also experience areas of patchy frost depending on how quickly cloud cover can clear out during the late overnight and early morning hours. Northeast Florida and Nature Coast can anticipate low temperatures in the middle to upper 40s. Central Florida will see low temperatures in the 50s and South Florida will see low temperatures in the low to middle 60s.
Coastal Hazards & Hydrology Rip Currents: A high risk for rip currents can be expected along Northeast Florida beaches as breezy onshore winds develop. A moderate risk for rip currents can be expected for numerous beaches across the state. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach. Marine Hazards: An ocean swell over the central Gulf of Mexico will lead to wave heights of 2-4 along the Panhandle and West Coast throughout the day. Breaking waves within the surf zone could reach 5 near West-Central Florida beaches this afternoon. An ocean swell will develop later this evening and into tonight along the Northeast and Space Coasts with breezy onshore winds. Wave heights will grow to reach 4-6 by tonight with breaking waves further offshore near 7-8 . High Surf Advisories may be needed later today. The rest of the East Coast can expect wave heights near 2-4 . Red Tide has not been observed above background levels over the past week. Coastal Flooding: Coastal flooding is not expected today. Flash Flooding: The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across portions of the East-Central and South Florida, including the Southeast Metro areas, where a lingering frontal boundary remains draped across the southern Peninsula. Abundant moisture and favorable atmospheric conditions will give way to widespread rainfall throughout the day across the Peninsula, but conditions may limit flash flooding across northern and central portions of the Peninsula. Rainfall totals of 1-3 can be expected across the Peninsula, but showers moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico and across South Florida may be capable of producing locally higher rainfall totals upwards of 3-5 . Localized flooding and ponding of water across urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas can be anticipated with multiple rounds of activity. Any thunderstorms that develop across South Florida will be capable of producing heavy rainfall at times which may also lead to localized instances of flooding. Riverine Flooding: River Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Apalachicola River at Woodruff L&D and near Blountstown following heavy rainfall across southern Alabama and Georgia last week. Many Big Bend and Northeast Florida rivers, creeks and waterways have risen near or into Action Stage following widespread rainfall on Saturday, and additional rainfall today will allow for water levels to continue to rise. Portions of the Sante Fe River basin will likely see water levels rise near or into Action Stage (bank-full) this upcoming week. Prolonged light to moderate rainfall, with heavy rainfall at times, will lead to water levels rising within the St. Johns River basin. Developing breezy winds and widespread rainfall will allow for the St. Johns River at Astor to see water levels rise into Action Stage. At this time there are no additional river flood concerns. For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center. Lake Okeechobee saverage elevation is 16.32 feet, which is within the operational band and 1.75 feet above normal for this time of year.
Drought & Fire Weather Fire Weather: A low pressure system over the central Gulf of Mexico will continue to bring widespread showers across the Peninsula, with isolated thunderstorms across South Florida where there is a lingering frontal boundary. Drier conditions can be expected across the Panhandle as the system moves eastward across the Peninsula and re-emerges over the western Atlantic waters. Breezy winds gusts near 20-30 mph can be expected at times this evening and into tonight as the low reemerges along the coastline and western Atlantic. Thunderstorms may be capable of producing lightning and locally gusty winds. The overall wildfire threat is low. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 18 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 348 acres. Drought: Despite plentiful rainfall across portions of the state early this week, no changes have been made to this week s drought update. Abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions persist along the Tampa Bay region from Pasco to Sarasota county. Heavy rainfall expected across the Peninsula this weekend may help to improve or alleviate drought conditions. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 131 (+5) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are zero Florida counties with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger). Current FFS Wildfire Dashboard
Space Weather Solar Flare Risk Active Watches & Warnings Past 24 hours Current Sunspots M-class: 40% Geomagnetic Storm: None C7 Solar Flare X-class: 5% Radiation Storm: None No Radio Blackout 48-Hour Geomagnetic Forecast 2/18 2/19 Max Kp= 3 (G0) Max Kp= 3 (G0) Earth-facing Coronal Holes Chance of minor activity = 1% severe activity = 1% Chance of minor activity = 5% severe activity = 1% Space Weather: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for strong (M-class) solar flares. All current sunspots have simple, stable magnetic fields that pose no threat for solar flares. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected throughout today and into tomorrow. A weak Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is likely to create weak activity and unsettled conditions after midday tomorrow. No minor (S1) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. The Earth s geomagnetic field will remain mostly quiet through today and into tomorrow before unsettled conditions with the weak CME arrival. There is a chance for minor to moderate (R1-R2) radio blackouts over the next couple of days. The overall space threat to Florida is very low.
SWO Communications Systems & Contact Information Equipment Contact Status Comments Phone: 800-320-0519, 850-815-4001, 850-591-0071 (Backup Cell) Operational Backup Landline: 850-487-3234, 850-487-3228 Operational Fax: Email: SWO Tracker: SLERS: FNARS: Federal NAWAS: State Watch Office EMnet Message: FL.000- State Watch Office EMnet Voice: FL SWP- State Watch Office IPAWS: LP.1 Stations via Emnet FIN: SOFEOC Satellite Phones: 888-890-5178 or 480-263-8838 Website: http://www.floridadisaster.org 850-815-4979 SWP@em.myflorida.com https://apps.floridadisaster.org/SWO/ DEM Statewide WGY974 Operational Operational Operational Operational Operational Operational Operational Operational Operational Operational Operational Operational Users wishing to subscribe (approval pending) to this distribution list, register at: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/FLDEM/subscriber/new?topic_id=Morning_SITREP
