Finland's Economic Forecast Autumn 2024 Summary

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The Finnish Association of Consulting Firms, SKOL, presents an overview of Finland's economic indicators and business trends for Autumn 2024. The analysis covers GDP change, private consumption, unemployment rate, forecasts for economic growth, investment change, inflation, and industry trends including construction. Insights from various sources provide a comprehensive outlook on the country's economic development. Learn about the challenges and opportunities in Finland's business sector, as well as projections for key industries like construction.

  • Finland
  • Economic Forecast
  • SKOL
  • Autumn 2024
  • Business Trends

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  1. SKOL Market Analysis Autumn 2024 Summary 8.10.2024 8.10.2024 The Finnish Association of Consulting Firms SKOL 1

  2. Economic indicators Finland's economy is expected to develop in a positive direction GDP change % Private consumption change % Unemployment rate, % Forecasts indicate that Finland's economy will turn from recession to growth in the year 2025. 2.5 7.2 3.0 2.0 7.1 1.5 2.0 1.0 7.0 However, there is significant variation in estimates depending on the source. 1.0 0.5 6.9 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 6.8 2023 2024 2025 2023 2024 2025 2023 2024 2025 Differences in the forecasts for 2025 range between 0.9 2.7 percentage points depending on the indicator. Export change % Investment change % Inflation, % 3.5 6.0 8.0 3.0 4.0 6.0 2.5 2.0 2.0 4.0 1.5 0.0 The graphs show the average calculated from the economic forecasts of ten different sources for the development of Finland's economy and employment. The forecasts have been compiled for the period from January 1, 2024, to June 30, 2024, from estimates by international and Finnish banks as well as statistical authorities and research institutions. 1.0 2.0 -2.0 0.5 0.0 -4.0 0.0 2023 2024 2025 2023 2024 2025 2023 2024 2025 8.10.2024 The Finnish Association of Consulting Firms SKOL 2 Source: Suomen Pankki, Teknologiateollisuus, Euroopan Komissio, IMF, Tilastokeskus

  3. Economic indicators Business tendency survey Economic confidence indicators, current business cycle situation of companies (seasonally adjusted net balance) Bottlenecks in economic production: Industry, construction and services, percentage of respondents (%) Shortage of skilled labour Capacity or raw materials Other obstacle Insufficient demand Financin difficulties Industry Construction Services Retail 40 60 30 55 20 50 10 45 40 0 35 -10 30 -20 25 20 -30 15 -40 10 -50 5 0 -60 10/2020 10/2021 10/2022 10/2023 1/2020 4/2020 7/2020 1/2021 4/2021 7/2021 1/2022 4/2022 7/2022 1/2023 4/2023 7/2023 1/2024 4/2024 7/2024 2015M01 2016M01 2017M01 2018M01 2019M01 2020M01 2021M01 2022M01 2023M01 2024M01 Opinion: The expectant state of the world affects the confidence of the business sector, which is reflected in the planning industry in the coming years as a potential decrease in new construction and uncertainty in major investments. Changing legislation and official processes also contribute to the slow implementation of major investments in Finland. According to the views of business enterprises, the challenge in production in recent years has especially been the weakness of demand, but at the same time, the availability of labour has improved. 8.10.2024 The Finnish Association of Consulting Firms SKOL 3 Source: Tilastokeskus, EK

  4. Industry trends and investments in Finland Construction Construction overview Industry trends Demand drivers Total construction volume moving annual total, million m3 Particularly in residential construction, recent years have been very difficult. Confidence indicators (Statistics Finland, EK) give hope for better prospects for the end of the year. The anticipation of declining interest rates and slowing inflation is expected to bolster the economic situation of investors, households, and housing corporations, which will aid in revitalizing the housing market and demand for commercial and renovation construction. 50 The large number of unsold new homes is slowing the recovery of new home construction. 45 Commercial and office building construction, as well as industrial and warehouse construction, have been less sensitive to economic fluctuations than residential construction, but the general market situation also punishes these industries. Public sector savings pressures present challenges to the volume of public construction. Renovation construction may be supported as demand shifts to older, more affordable properties instead of more expensive new construction. 40 35 Construction related to security of supply, safety, and defence. In commercial property construction, the quality and location of the premises are emphasized, and the forms of work are still seeking their place. Could emissions reduction become a detractor for new construction in the future if the costs of emissions are higher than the costs of not building? 30 The gloom in construction is also reflected in the decline in demand in the construction products industry. 25 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Building permits Concerning building permits granted, there has been some levelling off in 2024 compared to previous years. Building starts Building completions 8.10.2024 The Finnish Association of Consulting Firms SKOL 4 Source: EK, MANK, RT, VM

  5. Industry trends and investments in Finland Infrastructure Infrastructure overview Industry trends Demand drivers Cost index of civil engineering works Annual change % (2015=100) MANK estimates that infrastructure construction will shrink by 2-3% in 2024 but will turn to 3% growth in 2025. Large railway and tramway investments support demand. 50 Additional funding of 250 million euros is allocated for the repair backlog of routes in 2024, with a proposal of 200 million euros for 2025. 40 According to SKOL's August economic report, the order backlog for domestic infrastructure planning decreased from the previous quarter (- 2.6%) but new orders remained at the same level (+0.1%). Compared to a year ago, the order backlog decreased by 6.2% but there were 1.1% more new orders. 30 Green transition investments require a lot of projects related to infrastructure and energy transmission. 20 10 The growth of electric transportation demands the implementation of charging infrastructure, and in the mining sector, for example, the exploration of battery materials. The weak cycle in residential construction also affects infrastructure builders related to residential building projects. 0 The rise in civil engineering works costs has stabilized. -10 The development of security, safety, and defence (such as NATO) requires investments in infrastructure. -20 -30 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Total index Surfacing Concrete structures Maintenance 8.10.2024 The Finnish Association of Consulting Firms SKOL 5 Source: MANK, RT, SKOL, Tilastokeskus, V yl virasto

  6. Industry trends and investments in Finland Industry Industry overview Industry trends Demand drivers Industry economic situation, balance figure 50 According to the economic outlook from EK economic barometer, the industrial sector is expected to slowly recover during the fall and the next year is forecasted to be better than this one. The confidence indicator from Statistics Finland also shows cautious growth towards the end of the year. The government is preparing a tax incentive for large investments related to the green transition. 40 30 20 10 The government program initiative 'one-stop shop services' aims to improve the smoothness and predictability of investment licensing. 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 There are numerous green investment plans, particularly in energy production, but it would be critical to attract corresponding investments that utilize energy (e.g., hydrogen, battery, data center, and other production facilities) to Finland. The sharp rise in interest rates has been a hindrance to investments, but in 2024 the rates have been on a downward trend, which might release pent-up investment needs. -50 1/2020 4/2020 7/2020 1/2021 4/2021 7/2021 1/2022 4/2022 7/2022 1/2023 4/2023 7/2023 1/2024 4/2024 7/2024 10/2020 10/2021 10/2022 10/2023 Economic situation Economic outlook There is uncertainty in the realization and timelines of industrial projects. Industry order backlog, balance figure Projects related to supply security, safety, and defence industry. 40 There is a slight improvement in the industrial order book, but orders are still below the normal level. 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 1/2020 4/2020 7/2020 1/2021 4/2021 7/2021 1/2022 4/2022 7/2022 1/2023 4/2023 7/2023 1/2024 4/2024 7/2024 10/2020 10/2021 10/2022 10/2023 8.10.2024 The Finnish Association of Consulting Firms SKOL 6 Source: EK, Teknologiateollisuus

  7. Market development in the Nordic countries Overview of design and consulting industry in the Nordic Countries Norway Iceland Cumulative foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to the Nordic countries as a percentage of GDP, annually and by country The economy has grown significantly over the past 10 years, however, growth in GDP is now expected to temporarily slow down. In the construction industry, a slowdown is noticeable following several years of high growth rates. Construction is supported by a government-signed agreement to add 35,000 homes over the next ten years to meet housing demand. New transportation projects (traffic arrangements, road infrastructure) are expected to generate demand in the design and consulting industry. The economy has experienced significant volatility over the past decade. The country is facing elections, with numerous new legislations and projects underway that will affect both the operating environment and the industry demand. Investments are being directed towards increasing resilience, developing infrastructure, and improving the production and connections of energy, as well as water and environmental management. Large consulting firms have ample opportunity to meet diverse demand with their broad service offerings, whereas smaller firms have specialized particularly in real estate and construction, where design orders are expected to slightly decline. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% DK FI IS NO SE 8.10.2024 The Finnish Association of Consulting Firms SKOL 7 Source: Nordic Statistics database, RiNord

  8. Market development in the Nordic countries Overview of design and consulting industry in the Nordic Countries Denmark Sweden Annual change in employment numbers in the construction sector in the Nordic countries (NACE64) The economy has grown modestly over the last 10 years. The construction sector has been in a slight decline recently, but it is expected to revive. Infrastructure requires investments, and the expansion of nuclear power is on the table. The number and prices of workers in the technical consulting sector are expected to grow. The skills gap is the industry's biggest future concern. Discussions focus on enhancing competitiveness, investing in future skills, and climate change. Long-standing advantages of innovation and competitiveness are no longer at their previous levels. The current regulation, procurement practices, and R&D incentives are not considered to be optimized to support competitiveness. The economy has grown significantly over the last 10 years. The development in the industrial process and production industries has been positive and has accelerated over the past 6 years. The biggest market concern in Denmark is the future insufficiency of staff numbers. The country's regulations are under revision, and there is a noticeable strong focus on climate and environmental issues. This will increase the demand for design and consulting industry services. 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 -5% -10% Denmark Construction Sweden Construction Norway Construction Finland Construction Iceland Construction 8.10.2024 The Finnish Association of Consulting Firms SKOL 8 Source: Eurostat, RiNord

  9. Opportunities of utilizing foreign labour Utilizing foreign labour Overview Views of SKOL companies and business associations According to the spring 2024 assessment, from the perspective of SKOL companies, the surplus and deficit of employed personnel in engineering fields point to an overall deficit of nearly 1,000 professionals for the years 2025-2029. To maintain the supply of professionals, it is necessary to ensure that there are enough starting places in technical education. One way to meet the demand for skilled workers is to try to increase the number of foreign workers in Finnish companies. Experts believe that Finland's attractiveness is weak compared to Central Europe, for example, in terms of the competitiveness of salaries. A challenge has been the immigration policy of the current government, which has caused fear among the current top experts in the field, who are looking at job opportunities elsewhere. As a result, new top talents also partly avoid Finland. The current economic situation regarding the labour is good, but as the economy improves and in the long term, there is a need to increase the number of foreign workers, especially if investments in the green transition proceed strongly. Foreign labour is seen to positively increase the diversity of the organization and is considered key if projects are being done for international clients. In terms of numbers and nationalities, foreign labour is widely utilized, for example, in the development of IT services or architectural design. Challenges with foreign labour in planning and administrative tasks include language proficiency and national/local legislation and practices related to, for example, permit processes, reports, and guidelines. Supporting the integration of top talents coming from abroad to Finland is important. The validation of international workers' qualifications and competence is challenging, and their skills may not necessarily match what is presented. To attract professionals and make broader use of their skills, it is important to enable working without Finnish language skills. This requires an attitude change in companies and among clients. 8.10.2024 The Finnish Association of Consulting Firms SKOL 9

  10. Opportunities of utilizing artificial intelligence Utilizing artificial intelligence Overview Views of SKOL companies and business associations Consulting firm McKinsey estimates that due to an educated population and digital maturity, artificial intelligence may have a rapid impact on Finland's economy and work. The company predicts that AI could account for up to 13 billion euros of Finland's GDP by 2045. The greatest potential for value creation is estimated to be found in cross-industry functions, such as marketing and sales, software development, and customer service. While there have been predictions about job occupations disappearing in the labour markets, Etla suggests that the impact of AI on the Finnish job market will complement human labour more than it will replace it. In November 2023, The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries decided on a 10 M investment to accelerate the utilization of artificial intelligence in Finland. The program's funding is being channelled, among other things, to the recruitment of international top talent in AI, to AI development projects within member companies of the Technology Industries, and to grants for master's thesis related to these topics. In the construction and real estate sector, efforts are being made to compile a playbook intended to support actors in the built environment in using AI and to promote sustainable new technologies in the construction industry. The first version of the playbook is set to be completed at the turn of the year. AI has been used in design and consulting firms, for example, to assist in design work, and some companies have also developed AI-based services for customers, but a radical revolution in the way work is done has not yet been experienced. AI is approached with interest but also with caution. Identified challenges include a lack of training and adequate resourcing of experts. Attitudinal barriers are also seen, with a misunderstanding of the business potential. The opportunities of artificial intelligence can be broadly categorized into the following: 1. Process automation, enhancement of efficiency and productivity 2. New products and services 3. New business models 8.10.2024 The Finnish Association of Consulting Firms SKOL 10

  11. The role of sustainability and responsible governance in guiding investments in Europe and Finland Sustainability Overview Views of SKOL companies and business associations The EU s comprehensive sustainable finance framework plays a significant role in fulfilling the goals of the EU Green Deal and international climate commitments, while also aiming for transparency and consistency in sustainability reporting and directing private funds towards a climate-neutral and resource-efficient economy. EU Taxonomy is of considerable importance for investment guidance, as it defines the criteria for environmentally sustainable economic activities. Corporate sustainability reporting requirements (CSRD) will be extended to all large companies by 2025, to listed SMEs by 2026, and to non-EU companies with operations within the EU from 2028 onwards. Increased responsibility is expected to mainly have a positive effect on the workload of the design and consulting industry, as client companies will increasingly need help to cope with growing reporting and disclosure obligations. Sustainability requirements from clients and tightening regulation drive client companies to think about new solutions instead of old ones and to accelerate their adoption, which offers opportunities for SKOL companies. Sustainability regulations and practices are constantly evolving, and the impacts in the longer term depend in part on future developments. Sustainability is already reflected in the work of the design and consultancy industry. Increasing sustainability requirements necessitate more consultancy work, and various reporting requirements have recently been significant sources of employment. The transnational regulatory framework may pose restrictions on small states like Finland and, in the worst case, prevent investments. From the client's side, it is observed that sustainability issues are important today and clients must spend more time thinking about sustainability. However, money is still the deciding factor, and often in practice, there is a need to choose between environmentally sound or cost-effective solutions. Stricter regulations force companies to "do more than talk", which is positive from the perspective of SKOL companies. It is also important for actors in the design and consultancy industry to ensure that their actions are on the same level as they communicate. 8.10.2024 The Finnish Association of Consulting Firms SKOL 11

  12. Industrial policy strategy and Mineral strategy Overview Industrial policy strategy Mineral strategy Finland has excellent opportunities to benefit from the estimated global investment wave in clean transition and new technology, which offers strong conditions for the renewal and strengthening of industry. Disruptions in global markets offer promising opportunities for those who can efficiently utilize rising technologies such as quantum computing, robotics, data, and artificial intelligence in creating new solutions. This requires that Finnish companies and sectors can renew themselves and integrate more strongly into changing global value chains. The goal of the industrial policy strategy is to strengthen the competitive position of Finnish industry in global markets and to generate added value and well-being in Finland. The strategy has four sub-goals: 1. To support the renewal of strong industrial sectors to increase their productivity and added value, and to strengthen their competitiveness 2. To promote the strengthening of new sectors as significant industrial growth sectors, diversifying the economic structure 3. To attract investments to Finland to strengthen the industrial base 4. To ensure the availability of the skilled workers needed by the industry. The strategy is set to be announced in December 2024. The previous 2010 mineral strategy of Finland has recognized the importance of the availability and production of natural resources as well as the risks associated with the uneven geographical distribution of mineral reserves. The objectives of the green and digital transition are expected to increase the demand for raw materials. The availability of raw materials is also central to the defence sector. Recent crises, such as the coronavirus pandemic and Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, have demonstrated the vulnerability of raw material supply for both Finland and the entire EU. The goal of the mineral strategy is to create a shared vision of the state of the Finnish mineral cluster, policy objectives, and main directions. The central objective of the work is to promote the growth of the Finnish mineral cluster to strengthen clean transition and European strategic autonomy. In addition, the strategy aims to increase the value-added of raw materials in the mining industry. The mineral strategy is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2024. 8.10.2024 The Finnish Association of Consulting Firms SKOL 12

  13. Summary of Business Finland export programs Business Finland programs Program aims to make Finland the global leader in providing new value with 5G Advanced and 6G technologies for sustainable industries and societies. 6G Bridge Overview The goal is to encourage Finnish companies to develop international business based on the utilization and sharing of data. Data Economy Business Finland has export programs aimed at various sectors, with the goal of leveraging new market opportunities for Finnish companies. Design and consultancy firms can also benefit from export programs. Aim is to help to position Finland towards selected leading international maritime and ports actors as the most attractive source of solutions and the long-term partner for sustainability and digitalization. Decarbonized Maritime and Ports The program facilitates future looking innovations and promotes Finnish solutions increasing flexibility of the energy system, with the aim to significantly strengthen the export industry and increase exports globally. Flexible Energy Systems In its export programs, Business Finland Advises companies on market entry and building partnerships Assists in identifying new, growing markets and customers Supports international networking Supports renewal through innovations Creates Finnish joint offerings that give companies visibility in target markets Connects companies with international investors to promote funding opportunities The aim is to support Finnish companies in developing and commercializing internationally competitive solutions to address global challenges in the health sector. Health 360 Finland The goal is to develop a globally attractive ecosystem in Finland to solve significant business problems for both Finnish and foreign customers with quantum computing. Quantum Computing The objective is to support Finnish microelectronics, photonics and quantum sector to seize the emerging business opportunities in Europe and select global markets. The program will increase and strengthen the multisectoral supply and expertise that cities need to manage their CO2 emissions and energy transition today and tomorrow. The Chips Campaign Decarbonized Cities Finland The program encourages Finnish companies and research organizations to create digital pioneering solutions to increase the resilience and security of societies. Digital Resilience Aim is to bring new global competitive edge for Finnish companies with generative artificial intelligence. Program promotes the creation, development and international growth of value chains, technologies, solutions and services for the Finnish hydrogen and battery industry. Generatiivinen teko ly Hydrogen & batteries dual helix of decarbonization 8.10.2024 The Finnish Association of Consulting Firms SKOL 13

  14. Market opportunities for SKOL companies Summary of market opportunities Transnational and national-level regulatory reforms and legislation are increasing the demand for expertise in areas such as sustainability, environmental matters, and legal affairs. There is a demand for diverse expertise in the green transition and energy transformation (e.g., sustainability, sustainable solutions, renewable energies, new technologies) starting from initial planning to technical design, land use, construction and upkeep. Finland is developing a lot of renewable energy, but it also needs consumption for the produced energy. Development and market prospects for expertise related to carbon capture and utilization. Projects related to security of supply, safety, and the defence industry hold potential. Finland's potential in data center projects and the export of data center expertise gained from these projects. More active marketing and export of Finnish consulting expertise to the world, also by utilizing Business Finland export programs. With the improvement in the economic situation, the implementation of experiments aimed at attracting and using foreign labour with a low barrier to entry, such as hiring international students for summer jobs or internships. Leveraging the Work in Finland Talent Manager Network in the recruitment of foreign labour. Experiments aiming to utilize artificial intelligence, potentially in collaboration with customer needs. 8.10.2024 The Finnish Association of Consulting Firms SKOL 14

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