Exploring Inequality in World Cup Probability and Team Chances
Dive into the unequal probabilities and team chances in the World Cup through analysis of FIFA rankings, probability statements, and factors influencing team success, both football-related and beyond.
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The World Cup: A fair game? Use the World Cup to explore inequality
Maths session Equal or unequal?
Probability True or false? 1. Russia is unlikely to win the World Cup. 2. England has a 1/32 chance of winning the World Cup. 3. A team from Africa has the same chance of winning the world cup as a team from Europe. Does every team have the same chance of winning?
There are 32 countries taking part in the World Cup.
Probability fractions What is the probability of: 1. England winning the World Cup? 2. Russia winning the World Cup? 3. A team from Group A winning the World Cup? 4. England winning its group stage? 5. A country with the colour red used in its flag winning the World Cup?
FIFA rankings Group A Group B Group C Group D Group E Group F Group G Group H Russia Portugal France Argentina Brazil Germany Belgium Poland 66 7 5 2 1 3 10 4 Saudi Arabia Spain Australia Iceland Switzerland Mexico Panama Senegal 67 8 40 22 6 15 55 28 Egypt Morocco Peru Croatia Costa Rica Sweden Tunisia Colombia 46 42 11 18 25 23 14 16 Uruguay IR Iran Denmark Nigeria Serbia South Korea England Japan 17 36 12 47 35 61 13 60
Probability statements Less likely More likely Impossible Highly unlikely Unlikely Even chance Likely Certain Highly likely ........ is more/less likely to win the World Cup than ........ because ........................ A team from Group .... is more/less likely to win the World Cup than a team from Group .... because ........................ A team from Europe is more/less likely to win the World Cup than a team from Africa because ........................
Why isnt it equal? Why do some teams have a greater chance of winning? Why do teams from some continents have a greater chance of winning? Are there any football reasons? Are there any non-football reasons?
Reasons for teams being more/less likely to win the World Cup How much is this related to things outside of football itself? Is this fair?
Country incomes The World Bank classifies each country as one of the following: a low-income country a lower-middle-income country an upper-middle-income country a high-income country Which group do you think each of these countries is in? Egypt Russia Senegal England Upper-middle High Low Lower-middle
11,970 3,410 2,880 950 54,230 42,370 2,450 5,310 42,610 38,720 12,140 27,600 8,840 43,940 5,950 27,580 6,310 56,760 12,680 54,770 10,840 5,470 19,870 82,090 12,130 38,000 9,720 3,690 56,990 9,040 21,720 15,230
Inequality Is there a big difference between the countries incomes? This difference is called income inequality. Inequality means the difference in resources or opportunities for one group of people versus another.
Why? Think about how having extra income could affect football teams: Directly for example by providing better resources for training. And indirectly for example by providing better healthcare and education for children.
Statements and generalisations Wealthy countries are The more money a country has Income Most inequality in the World Cup is European countries
Is this fair? Choose a team to support through the tournament. Will you choose a high-, middle- or low-income country? Why? If a high-income country has more money to invest in football, what else would it have more money to invest in? Is football fair? If a low-income country has less money to invest in football, what else would it have less money to invest in? Would you prefer to grow up in a high-, middle- or low- income country? Why?
Inequality between countries There is inequality between countries in the world. This means things are not shared fairly between countries. For example, some countries are wealthy while others are extremely poor.
Inequality within countries There is also inequality within countries. This means things are not shared fairly within the same country. For example, some people may have more money than others.
Scoring inequality within countries Countries can be given a score (called the GINI index) to show how equal or unequal they are. 0 A score of 0 means that the country is completely equal, that everyone in that country has the same amount of money. That would look something like this: In reality, no country looks like this.
Scoring inequality within countries A score of 100 means the country is completely unequal. This would look something like this: 100 In reality, thankfully, no country looks like this either.
Plotting fairness scores Plot the 4 countries on the scale below. 0 25 50 75 100 Completely equal Completely unequal Brazil 51 Iceland 26 England 33 Russia 38 Page 22
